Changing ownership structures in the Dutch fleet

The new Dutch shipping policy has given rise to high expectation and curiosity in the world of shipping. This, together with the obvious difficulties of an ex-post study of the effectiveness of such innovative policy, has prompted the authors to take an interest in attempting to investigate changes in ownership of the Dutch fleet 2 years after the new policy has been introduced. To do this, a rather new concept of ‘flagging out’ has been adopted, which is interpreted as a process leading to different degrees of ‘foreignness’ in a shipping operation. In this paper, a method to structure is presented, and ownership information, and changes in it are presented, that are essentially based on the theory of stochastic processes. The data used is the Dutch fleet data, which includes information on the nationality of the flag, parent ownership and management over the period 1994–1998. The results yield interesting insights in the shifts in the ownership and operational structure of shipping companies induced by the new policy. In particular, they allow one to establish the origin of new vessels, in which stage of ownership/operation it is most likely that shifts occur, and to determine the relationship between the different stages of the ‘flagging out’ process. These results, thus, enable an evaluation of the areas in which the policy can be expected to yield results.     

Reconstructing Polish ports and shipping

Dramatic efforts to put Poland's economy back on the right track indicate an urgent need to undertake studies concerning the future shape and structure of the Polish Merchant Marine as well as Poland's share in international maritime transport. Changing ownership and structure of enterprises, modernization of tonnage, improvement of domestic and foreign infrastructure, implementation of proper manning policy in the fleet and improvement of managerial techniques in the daily operation of ports and ships are some of the tasks which must be considered by those responsible for the future of Polish ports and shipping companies.     

集装箱船舶大型化对中国班轮运输的影响

通过竞争情报分析提供了各班轮公司未来船队结构和运力的变化趋势,由此观察到各班轮公司为了降低自身的营运成本,在最近几年大量订购超巴拿马型甚至更大型的集装箱船舶参与运输,但是却不能达到其预期的规模效应。原因就在于相当一部分成本随着船型的增大而线性增加,规模不经济。我们探讨了中国的班轮运输市场的几个重要特点:中外贸易的不平衡导致了货源的不平衡;未来贸易结构的调整会影响航线的布局和调派;贸易上的不稳定因素使班轮公司遇到外在的风险。这些特点会深远地影响集装箱船舶大型化的经济受益,相反的,集装箱船舶大型化的趋势也会加剧这些负面的影响,危及整个班轮运输市场。     

Recent aspects of the EU maritime transport policy

Since the 1980s the EU merchant fleet has suffered a dramatic decline mainly due to sharp competition from the Far East and developing countries and the operation of foreign registers ('flags of convenience'). At present the EU aims to complete the single market in shipping and improve the competitive ability of a viable European-flag fleet. It has therefore developed a policy for a European register (EUROS) to run parallel to national registers. This paper argues that the EU policy would prove to be ineffective unless it can differentiate between kinds of shipping.     

Explaining variations in national fleet across shipping nations

Many studies on national shipping attribute the declines in national fleets of developed economies to the lack of comparative advantage, but little has been done so far to identify factors contributing to countries’ shipping comparative advantage using a systematic approach. Although shipping markets are highly international and competitive, it is not clear whether tonnage owned by countries is governed by country-specific factors. This paper seeks to explain variations in nationally owned fleet across shipping nations. The main variable of interest is national fleet tonnage owned by country of domicile as opposed to registered tonnage. The results of econometric analysis using data from 84 shipping nations indicate that various country-specific factors do indeed contribute to variations in fleet tonnage across shipping nations, albeit at different levels of significance. Financial market development, external trade, ship registration, shipbuilding and shipping history appear to have the most significant impact, followed by the level of development and technology and maritime policy. Based on the results of analysis, implications for policy and future research are also discussed.     

Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO2 emissions

International shipping is a significant contributor to Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, responsible for approximately 3% of global CO₂ emissions. The International Maritime Organization is currently working to establish GHG regulations for international shipping and a cost effectiveness approach has been suggested to determine the required emission reductions from shipping. To achieve emission reductions in a cost effective manner, this study has assessed the cost and reduction potential for present and future abatement measures based on new and unpublished data. The model used captures the world fleet up to 2030, and the analysis includes 25 separate measures. A new integrated modelling approach has been used combining fleet projections with activity-based CO₂ emission modelling and projected development of measures for CO₂ emission reduction. The world fleet projections up to 2030 are constructed using a fleet growth model that takes into account assumed ship type specific scrapping and new building rates. A baseline trajectory for CO₂ emission is then established. The reduction potential from the baseline trajectory and the associated marginal cost levels are calculated for 25 different emission reduction measures. The results are given as marginal abatement cost curves, and as future cost scenarios for reduction of world fleet CO₂ emissions. The results show that a scenario in which CO₂ emissions are reduced by 33% from baseline in 2030 is achievable at a marginal cost of USD 0 per tonne reduced. At this cost level, emission in 2010 can be reduced by 19% and by 24% in 2020. A scenario with 49% reduction from baseline in 2030 can be achieved at a marginal cost of USD 100 per tonne (27% in 2010 and 35% in 2020). Furthermore, it is evident that further increasing the cost level beyond USD 100 per tonne yield very little in terms of further emission reduction. The results also indicate that stabilising fleet emissions at current levels is obtainable at moderate costs, compensating for fleet growth up to 2030. However, significant reductions beyond current levels seem difficult to achieve. Marginal abatement costs for the major ship types are also calculated, and the results are shown to be relatively homogenous for all major ship types. The presented data and methodology could be very useful for assisting the industry and policymakers in selecting cost effective solutions for reducing GHG emissions from the world fleet.     

The adaptation of the Polish shipping companies to market conditions

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Polish shipping. Implementation of the market economy system was at first demonstrated in the introduction of the principles of self-dependence, self-government and self-financing of the shipping companies. Privatization performed a key role in the program of transformation of the centrally planned system into market oriented financially independent shipping organizations. The previous principle of the necessary participation of the home fleet in transporting domestic sea-borne trade has been mostly replaced by cross-trade. Many shipping services have left its basic ports in the country for a West European basis, securing alimentation of home and transit cargoes by feeder-service systems. Joint stock companies in shipping with substantial shares of foreign capital are welcomed, and the previously obligatory system of administrative methods of the state monopoly has been abolished. The principles of shipping policy represented in the past by Poland and also by UNCTAD in the 1960s have lost their impact and must be change and adapted to the new demands of the shipping markets.     

The adaptation of the Polish shipping companies to market conditions

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Polish shipping. Implementation of the market economy system was at first demonstrated in the introduction of the principles of self-dependence, self-government and self-financing of the shipping companies. Privatization performed a key role in the program of transformation of the centrally planned system into market oriented financially independent shipping organizations. The previous principle of the necessary participation of the home fleet in transporting domestic sea-borne trade has been mostly replaced by cross-trade. Many shipping services have left its basic ports in the country for a West European basis, securing alimentation of home and transit cargoes by feeder–service systems. Joint stock companies in shipping with substantial shares of foreign capital are welcomed, and the previously obligatory system of administrative methods of the state monopoly has been abolished. The principles of shipping policy represented in the past by Poland and also by UNCTAD in the 1960s have lost their impact and must be change and adapted to the new demands of the shipping markets.     

US shipping policy under conditions of a new world economic and political environment

The maritime policy of the US has evolved over more than 100 years from the support of US shipping through mail and fleet auxiliary contracts before the turn of the century, to the present array of direct and indirect Government aids and regulations based on the assumption that a strong maritime industry composed of both US-flag shipping and US-shipbuilding capacity is essential for the economic well-being and defence of the country. Notwithstanding massive direct and indirect aid to the US merchant marine, amounting to well over a billion dollars a year in recent years, US shipping and shipbuilding has declined dramatically and now comprises less than 3% of world shipping. Only 2.8% of US foreign trade by volume and 6% by value is today carried in US flag ships. Government aids constitute well over 33% of total revenues of US-flag shipping.

The traditional argument for US Government support has been the need for cost parity to permit US-flag shipping to compete effectively in international trade against foreign shipping serving the same routes with presumably lower operating costs. This argument is difficult to sustain today, as vessel costs of many other industrialized nations are now about equal to those of US-flag ships.

In 1970 the US enacted a new, vastly more liberal, maritime act for the support of the US maritime industry. Notwithstanding its even more liberal terms and elimination of the strict cost-parity interpretation, the US maritime industry continues its decline. The recent bankruptcy of two old, established subsidized shipping companies has caused tremors in the industry, yet no new ideas, policies, or plans seem to be forthcoming. It is the objective of this paper to study the development and effects of various historic US Government policies relating to the support of the US maritime industry, and evaluate the positions taken by proponents or opponents of the maritime policy leading to the policy development.

The decision processes are studied by evaluating literature on the evolution of Congressional, administration, industry, and labour interest and positions on the issue of Government aid to the maritime industry. The impact and effectiveness of various elements of past and present US maritime policy is evaluated in relation to the stated objectives. The alternatives to these policies are reviewed in the light of the changing US position in international trade, military strategy, and political objectives. In addition the effectiveness of the present and alternative policies is evaluated as it is and will be affected by changing technology in use, composition of ownership, and operations of US-flag shipping and shipbuilding.     

Korean liner shipping in the era of global alliances

In the course of the last two decades Korean shipping has emerged as a major player in the liner market. In 1970 there was not a single container ship in the Korean fleet; yet, within the next two decades, shipping companies from Korea have become included among the top 10 liner operators in the world, in the context of a spectacular ascent of Asian companies in international container shipping. During the same period the organization of liner shipping itself underwent major changes. In the 1970s and 1980s, pools and powerful consortia prevailed, maximizing frequency and optimizing fleet deployment under pressure from the high investment entailed by containerization. The era of consortia, however, came to a close in the early 1990s; intermodalism and the expansion of the major liner companies into forward and backward segments of the transport chain rendered them inflexible for pursuing individual strategies of product diversification with a view to larger market shares. Global alliances were finally born as a result of a major reshuffling of co-operation agreements and of the globalization of the production process on the demand side. The aim of this paper is to follow and assess the options available to an aggressive low-cost national fleet in its journey to competitive maturity through a period of changing organization of liner shipping, focusing on the course of the leading Korean container company, and one of the largest in the world today, Hanjin. It highlights at the same time both the deep structural changes which liner shipping has undergone in the last two decades and the effects of current changes, such as the recent wave of mergers in this sector.     

A cross-section analysis of stock returns: The case of shipping firms

This paper undertakes an analysis of the determinants of the cross-section of expected stock returns of 19 shipping companies listed in the US, Norway, Stockholm and London. Various factors, including company stock market beta, divided yield, and financial leverage have been identified in the finance literature as determinants of share price performance. We capitalize on these findings and add one more industry specific factor, the average age of the company's fleet, to quantitatively analyse the determinants of the performance of shipping shock returns. We use the Fama-MacBeth methodology to empirically test whether the five factors above have a significant effect on shipping stocks' performance. Our results indicate that the industry specific factor (the average age of the fleet) plus financial leverage, are significant in explaining shipping stocks' returns, wheras the stock market beta and the dividend yield are far less significant.     

The impact of transitional changes on maritime transport in Central and Eastern Europe

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Central and Eastern European shipping. Former socialist shipping corporations began offering services under market conditions and left behind the rigid leeway of central planning and regulation. Extensive adjustments in ownership and legislation have transpired, and services and markets, as well as the operations within, have changed significantly. The restructuring of maritime transport is being carried out within the framework of forms that derive from changes in the economic macrosystems as a whole. Careful analysis of the process of corporate transition identifies unique patterns of diminishing, permanent, and incipient components utilized during the reorientation of fleet strategy, market and service changes, and company restructuring. All transition arrangements have been greatly influenced by the integration of Central Eastern European countries with the European Union.     

The impact of transitional changes on maritime transport in Central and Eastern Europe

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Central and Eastern European shipping. Former socialist shipping corporations began offering services under market conditions and left behind the rigid leeway of central planning and regulation. Extensive adjustments in ownership and legislation have transpired, and services and markets, as well as the operations within, have changed significantly. The restructuring of maritime transport is being carried out within the framework of forms that derive from changes in the economic macrosystems as a whole. Careful analysis of the process of corporate transition identifies unique patterns of diminishing, permanent, and incipient components utilized during the reorientation of fleet strategy, market and service changes, and company restructuring. All transition arrangements have been greatly influenced by the integration of Central Eastern European countries with the European Union.     

Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO₂ emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO₂ emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO₂ emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316?Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO₂ emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO₂ emission reduction scenarios.     

Strategic fleet size planning for maritime refrigerated containers

In the present economic climate, it is often the case that profits can only be improved, or for that matter maintained, by improving efficiency and cutting costs. This is particularly notorious in the shipping business, where it has been seen that the competition is getting tougher among carriers, thus alliances and partnerships are resulting for cost effective services in recent years. In this scenario, effective planning methods are important not only for strategic but also operating tasks, covering their entire transportation systems. Container fleet size planning is an important part of the strategy of any shipping line. This paper addresses the problem of fleet size planning for refrigerated containers, to achieve cost-effective services in a competitive maritime shipping market. An analytical model is first discussed to determine the optimal size of an own dry container fleet. Then, this is extended for an own refrigerated container fleet, which is the case when an extremely unbalanced trade represents one of the major investment decisions to be taken by liner operators. Next, a simulation model is developed for fleet sizing in a more practical situation and, by using this, various scenarios are analysed to determine the most convenient composition of refrigerated fleet between own and leased containers for the transpacific cargo trade.     

基于信息熵的编队反潜作战信息质量评估方法研究

由于传统方法难以分析比较舰艇编队反潜信息质量,文章采用信息熵的计算方法,依据编队反潜作战实际,建立了编队反潜作战信息质量评估模型,并以此为基础,提出建立编队反潜作战信息质量评估数据库,通过检索快速获取当前态势和时间下编队反潜作战信息质量,为舰艇编队反潜作战信息质量和效能研究提供了有益思路,并为作战指挥快速决策提供了有利依据。     

标准化船队浅水槽运原理简述及模型试验研究

为了寻求一种用水量小、运输量大,节能效果显著、还可在干旱或非流域地区运行的浅水槽运方式,提出建设专用水槽,采用岸边（链轮传动或架空钢索）牵引方式在水槽中拖航标准化船队,并用计算机调控船队进出＂港口＂的浅水槽运模式,阐述水槽中浅水行船的基本原理。制作金属材料的模型船队,在水槽中进行模型试验,从原理上验证该槽运模式的可行性。     

'Government preference' and its influence on the shipping industry in Korea

The author suggests the existence of 'government preference', which has changed the structure of the Korean economy from that of a light-goods industry to one of a heavy and chemical goods industry; and which has affected the formation of an export-dependent economy. 'Government preference' has also affected the shipping sector which was favoured as a foreign-exchange earner, not as an income generator. Korean shipping expanded through market forces in its earlier developmental stage where tonnage of the Korean fleet grew moderately and profitability was reasonably good; and by 'government preference' towards shipping externalities (balance-of-payments effect and support for export industry) which became a prime concern of the government in later years where the fleet expanded rapidly in spite of negative profitability. It follows that under circumstances of 'government preference' which is strong enough to work and which prefers shipping's external effect to value added generated by shipping. Korean shipping might well record a poor performance in terms of profitability. This means that Korean shipping companies' prime concern lies in 'survival' not in 'profit'.     

Risk perception affecting the performance of shipping companies: the moderating effect of China and Korea

Risks in the shipping industry have been highlighted and have attracted significant attention, especially following the bankruptcy of Hanjin in 2017. Due to the decrease in container volume, the business environment for large shipping companies in China has deteriorated. Therefore, major large shipping companies have implemented mixed ownership reform, which provides more opportunities for large Korean shipping companies to enter the Chinese shipping industry. This study first identifies risk perception, specifically focusing on the moderating effect of Chinese and Korean shipping companies, and then demonstrates the impact of these risks on shipping company performance. The results show that market, operational, and technical risks have a negative influence on Chinese shipping companies, whereas market, policy, financial, operations, and technical risks have a negative influence on Korean shipping companies. This study contributes to the fundamental understanding of the effect of risk perception on performance among shipping companies in both countries and calls for further research on risk management plans based on the risk factors identified herein. On a practical level, this study provides an important reference for operators and investors who seek to enter strategic alliances or joint venture in Chinese shipping industry.     

Refrigerated container versus bulk: evidence from the banana cold chain

During the last 20 years, the reefer shipping sector has been characterised by a gradual changing process, leading from specialised vessels to reefer containers. In fact, the reefer bulk fleet has experienced an irreversible decline, while the reefer container fleet has shown a continuous growth. This article investigates the current major factors shaping the reefer shipping industry, in order to understand the economic drivers inducing competition between bulk and containers. Therefore, a twofold analysis has been performed. First, an overview of the reefer market, including the cold chain, the demand for refrigerated products and the supply of reefer capacity given both by containership fleet and by conventional reefer fleet. Second, a specific case of the banana trade has been carried out for evaluating the revenues of each player involved in the banana cold chain followed by a cost analysis. The results reveal the market tendencies, focusing on the main sources of competition for bulk versus container.