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1.
The impact of urban form on automobile travel: disentangling causation from correlation 总被引:5,自引:3,他引:2
A longstanding question within the field of transportation demand management is the strength of the relationship between urban
form and mobility behavior. Although several studies have identified a strong correlation between these variables, there is
as yet scant evidence to support policy interventions that target land use as a means of influencing travel. To the contrary,
some of the more recent research has cast skepticism on the proposition that the relationship is causative, recognizing the
possibility that households endogenously self-select themselves into communities that support their preferences for particular
transportation modes. Focusing on individual automobile travel, the present study seeks to contribute to this line of inquiry
by estimating econometric models on a panel of travel-diary data collected in Germany between 1996 and 2003. Specifically,
we employ the two-part model (2PM)—a procedure involving probit and OLS estimators—to assess the determinants of the discrete
decision to use the car and the continuous decision of distance traveled. Beyond modeling variables that capture the urban
form features that are commonly suggested to influence mobility behavior, including mixed use and public transit, this study
employs instrumental variables to control for potential endogeneity emerging from the simultaneity of residential and mode
choices. Unlike much of the work to date, our results suggest that urban form has a causative impact on car use, a finding
that is robust to alternative econometric specifications.
相似文献
Ralf HedelEmail: |
2.
The influence of built environment to the trends in commuting journeys in the Netherlands 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper we describe commuting trends in the Netherlands in the past decade and examine the influence of urban form and
travel accessibility on commuting journeys over time on the basis of data from the Dutch National Travel Survey. Exploratory
analysis is performed to identify changes in commuting participation, departure time, commuting time, commuting distance and
the modal split. Regression analysis and choice models are used to examine the influence of the built environment on commuting
parameters over time. The results indicate that urban form has consistently influenced the parameters of commuting journey
in the Netherlands in the last 10 years. However, the trend of the influence is unique for each commuting model. Some influences
have become less significant in the last decade and some have become stronger.
相似文献
Kees MaatEmail: |
3.
Traditionally, researchers studying transportation choice have used data either acquired from household surveys or broad,
region-wide aggregates. At the disaggregate level, researchers usually do not have access to important variables or observations.
This study investigates the potential usefulness of a proxy approach to modeling discrete choice vehicle ownership: substituting
narrow area-based aggregate proxies for missing micro-level explanatory variables by accessing large, publicly maintained
datasets. We use data from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) and the contemporaneous U.S. Census file to compare three
models of vehicle ownership, drawing area-wide proxies from increasing levels of aggregation. The models with proxies are
compared with a parallel model that uses only survey data. The results indicate that the proxy models are preferred in terms
of model selection criteria, and predict vehicle ownership as well or better than the survey model. Parameter values produced
by the proxy method effectively approximate those returned by household survey models in terms of coefficient sign and significance,
particularly when the aggregate variables are representative of their household-level counterparts. The proxy model with the
narrowest level of aggregation achieved the best fit, coefficient precision, and percentage of correct prediction.
相似文献
Jeffrey WilliamsEmail: |
4.
Toshiyuki Yamamoto 《Transportation》2009,36(3):351-366
The interactions among different types of vehicle ownership including car, motorcycle and bicycle are examined by developing
simultaneous vehicle ownership models in this study. Large scale person trip survey data for Osaka metropolitan area, Japan
and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia are used for empirical analysis. The results suggest that population density at residential area
significantly and negatively affects car ownership for both areas, and that the effects are larger for Osaka metropolitan
area than for Kuala Lumpur. Also, bicycle ownership becomes higher at higher population density area for Osaka area, while
higher at lower population density area for Kuala Lumpur, which represents the different usage patterns of bicycle between
the two areas.
相似文献
Toshiyuki YamamotoEmail: |
5.
Mintesnot G. Woldeamanuel Rita Cyganski Angelika Schulz Andreas Justen 《Transportation》2009,36(4):371-387
For economic and environmental policy formulation and with the effort of creating less car dependent societies, it is important
to study the changing characteristics of car ownership in a household through time as well as factors responsible of these
variations. There is a vast body of literature on empirical studies of car ownership and use. These studies have investigated
the socio-economic background of the decision maker, the built environment and the perception associated with owning a car
as determinant factors of car ownership and use. In most cases, these analyses have been carried out using cross-sectional
data sets. However, the analysis of factors determining changes in travel behavior of an individual or household requires
information on their behavior over time (longitudinal data set). In this study, the German Mobility Panel (1996–2006) is used
to examine variation of car ownership through time and across households. The panel data modeling results showed that there
are variations of car ownership between households whereas changes in car ownership of a given household over time (within
household variations) are insignificant. The influence of other factors such as the households’ socio-economic background,
the availability of public transportation and shopping/leisure facilities, perception on parking difficulties and satisfaction
with existing public transportation services on the car owning characteristics of households is also presented and discussed
in this paper.
相似文献
Andreas JustenEmail: |
6.
Galit Cohen-Blankshtain 《Transportation》2008,35(3):411-424
Transportation analysis emphasizes the necessity to internalize the transport externalities of car usage through taxation.
Yet taxation decisions are often made with non-transport goals in mind. In such cases, transport policies are made ‘by the
way.’ This paper examines such a case: Israel’s taxation policy on company cars. It shows that current taxation policies result
in increasing numbers of company cars and growing numbers of transport users who are not sensitive to the marginal cost of
car use and make excessive use of the car. As a result, a significant portion of Travel Demand Management (TDM) measures cannot
affect this group. The Israeli case of company car tax reform demonstrates the problematic effect of a policy that does not
take its overall consequences on other policy fields into account and thereby impairs efforts to reduce the negative impacts
of the transport system. Also, it demonstrates the importance of institutional aspects of transport policymaking.
Cohen-Blankshtain is a lecturer at the department of Geography and School of Public Policy at the Hebrew University. Her research interests include urban policy, transport and ICT policy and participation process in public policy. 相似文献
Galit Cohen-BlankshtainEmail: |
Cohen-Blankshtain is a lecturer at the department of Geography and School of Public Policy at the Hebrew University. Her research interests include urban policy, transport and ICT policy and participation process in public policy. 相似文献
7.
Modeling residential sorting effects to understand the impact of the built environment on commute mode choice 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3
Abdul Rawoof Pinjari Ram M. Pendyala Chandra R. Bhat Paul A. Waddell 《Transportation》2007,34(5):557-573
This paper presents an examination of the significance of residential sorting or self selection effects in understanding the
impacts of the built environment on travel choices. Land use and transportation system attributes are often treated as exogenous
variables in models of travel behavior. Such models ignore the potential self selection processes that may be at play wherein
households and individuals choose to locate in areas or built environments that are consistent with their lifestyle and transportation
preferences, attitudes, and values. In this paper, a simultaneous model of residential location choice and commute mode choice
that accounts for both observed and unobserved taste variations that may contribute to residential self selection is estimated
on a survey sample extracted from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area household travel survey. Model results show that both observed
and unobserved residential self selection effects do exist; however, even after accounting for these effects, it is found
that built environment attributes can indeed significantly impact commute mode choice behavior. The paper concludes with a
discussion of the implications of the model findings for policy planning.
相似文献
Paul A. WaddellEmail: |
8.
This contribution presents theoretical considerations concerning the connections between life situation, lifestyle, choice
of residential location and travel behaviour, as well as empirical results of structural equation models. The analyses are
based on data resulting from a survey in seven study areas in the region of Cologne. The results indicate that lifestyles
influence mode choice, although slightly, even when life situation is controlled for. The influence of life situation on mode
choice exceeds the influence of lifestyle. The influence that lifestyle, and in part also life situation, has on mode choice
is primarily mediated by specific location attitudes and location decisions that influence mode choice, respectively. Here
objective spatial conditions as well as subjective location attitudes are important.
相似文献
Joachim ScheinerEmail: |
9.
In auto-oriented communities, access to an automobile is essential for good mobility, but not everyone owns a car or is able
to drive. Little is known about how individuals in these circumstances might still use vehicles for transportation. To provide
insight on the nature of vehicle use by those with potentially limited vehicle access, we present qualitative findings from
focus groups with recent Mexican immigrants living in California, half of whom owned no cars. Our results demonstrate varying
degrees of participants’ access to vehicle travel not always corresponding to auto ownership, with extensive sharing of cars,
borrowing of cars, and getting rides. We describe the different dimensions of vehicle access that participants experienced
and identify specific factors that seemed to influence their access levels. We discuss the implications of our findings for
transportation policy and future research.
相似文献
Susan HandyEmail: |
10.
Singapore motorisation restraint and its implications on travel behaviour and urban sustainability 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Piotr S. Olszewski 《Transportation》2007,34(3):319-335
The example of Singapore shows that rapid urban and economic growth does not have to bring traffic congestion and pollution.
Singapore has chosen to restrain car traffic demand due to its limited land supply. Transport policy based on balanced development
of road and transit infrastructure and restraint of traffic has been consistently implemented for the past 30 years. Combined
with land use planning, it resulted in a modern transport system, which is free from major congestion and provides users with
different travel alternatives. As the economic growth caused a substantial increase in demand for cars, several pricing policies
were introduced with the aim of restraining car ownership and usage. Growth of the vehicle population is now controlled and
potentially congested roads are subject to road pricing. These measures help to keep the roads free from major congestion,
maintain car share of work trips below 25% and keep the transport energy usage low. Although Singapore conditions are in many
aspects unique, its travel demand experience can provide useful lessons for other rapidly growing cities in Asia.
相似文献
Piotr S. OlszewskiEmail: |
11.
Market segmentation studies in travel behavior research are ordinarily based on socioeconomic characteristics and personality
traits. This study explores the usefulness of a different approach, where the actual overall mobility levels across different
ground transportation modes, along with desired changes in the use of cars and transit, are used as clustering variables.
Using a given mode can in fact influence the personal representation of that mode, which in turn has been proven to be a key
element in transport behaviours. We form such multimodality-based clusters from two field studies, one involving employees
of the French transportation research institute INRETS and the other a representative sample of residents of the US San Francisco
Bay Area. We find that strong users of a given mode would like to bring more balance to their “modal consumptions” by decreasing
the use of this mode more than the average, and increasing the use of the alternative mode. However, concerning ground transport
travel budgets, the desire to travel more (or less) overall seems less strongly related to the composition of the modal balance. The US dataset shows also a greater latent demand for
travel than the French one. Socioeconomic characteristics of the clusters could not explain the patterns that were found,
confirming the importance of taking into account multimodality issues in travel behavior research. Some policy implications
from these findings are finally reported.
相似文献
Patricia L. MokhtarianEmail: |
12.
Due to a variety of reasons, the previous century is characterized by an extraordinary growth in car use that has continued
into the current century. This has resulted in serious environmental repercussions. Despite technological advancements, the
externalities remain an ecological threat that can not be discarded by policy makers. Therefore, it is essential that policy
makers focus on reducing car use and on stimulating the shift towards more environment-friendly transport modes. In this study,
Q-methodology is adopted as the technique to segment people, and to ascertain which approaches and determinants matter to
medium distance travel. Segmentation is important, as policy measures will be more efficient and effective if they are fine-tuned
on specific target groups. The analysis revealed that four discourses preponderate the paradigm of environmentally sustainable
transport: travelers who use public transport as a dominant alternative, car-dependent travelers, travelers with a positive
perception of using public transport, and travelers with a preference for car use. Concerning rational, economic motives,
individuals evaluate travel time reliability as most important. To increase the reliability policy makers should consider
the use of separate bus lanes and traffic light manipulation. In addition, public transport can be made even more attractive,
when costs of cars are made more variable by road or congestion charging. When the s motives are discussed, the differences
between the different groups of travelers were more pronounced. Next to increasing the benefits of using public transport,
policy makers should also pay attention to removing psycho-social barriers.
相似文献
Mario CoolsEmail: |
13.
Understanding of the activity-travel patterns of children is becoming increasingly important to various policy makers. Further,
there is also a growing recognition that intra-household interactions need to be explicitly accommodated in travel models
for realistic forecasts and policy evaluation. In the light of these issues, this paper contributes towards an overall understanding
of the school-travel behavior of children and the related interdependencies among the travel patterns of parents and children.
An econometric model is formulated to simultaneously determine the choice of mode and the escorting person for children’s
travel to and from school. The 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) data are used in the model estimation process.
Empirical results indicate that the characteristics of child like age, gender, and ethnicity, and employment and work flexibility
characteristics of the parents have strong impacts on the mode choice decisions. In addition, the impacts of some of these
attributes on the choice of mode to school are different from the corresponding impacts on the choice of mode from school. The distance between home and school is found to strongly and negatively impact the choice of walking to and from
school, with the impact being stronger for walking to school. Several land-use and built-environment variables were explored,
but were found not to be statistically significant predictors.
相似文献
Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan (Corresponding author)Email: |
14.
Catherine Morency 《Transportation》2007,34(2):239-253
Ridesharing is quite a popular topic of discussion among transport authority personnel. It is perceived to be a viable alternative
to classical modes of transportation, and receives a great deal of political support from transport planners. However, not
much objective information is available on ridesharing behaviors. We use travel survey data to study the evolution of the
ridesharing market in an urban area. Our study is based on data from four large-scale OD surveys conducted in the Greater
Montreal Area (1987, 1993, 1998 and 2003).
In the latest survey conducted in Montreal, car passengers were asked to identify the driver who gave them the opportunity
to travel in this way. Their answers were classified according to the type of driver; for instance, a member of their household,
a neighbor or a co-worker. We use this information to calibrate a model matching car passengers and car drivers belonging
to the same household. This will be referred to as IHHR (intra-household ridesharing).
Preliminary results reveal that approximately 70% of all trips made by car passengers are the result of IHHR. Furthermore,
around 15% of those trips are questionable, in that they were exclusively generated for another individual’s purposes, consequently
generating an additional trip for the journey back home. Moreover, this percentage increased over time. Objective data regarding
ridesharing and its evolution in an urban area will undoubtedly help decision makers gain a clearer profile of this means
of travel and help to realign attitudes on the issue.
相似文献
Catherine MorencyEmail: |
15.
This paper analyzes transportation mode choice for short home-based trips using a 1999 activity survey from the Puget Sound
region of Washington State, U.S.A. Short trips are defined as those within the 95th percentile walking distance in the data,
here 1.40 miles (2.25 km). The mean walking distance was 0.4 miles (0.6 km). The mode distribution was automobile (75%), walk
(23%), bicycle (1%), and bus (1%). Walk and bicycle are found less likely as the individual’s age increases. People are more
likely to drive if they can or are accustomed to. People in multi-person families are less likely to walk or use bus, especially
families with children. An environment that attracts people’s interest and provides activity opportunities encourages people
to walk on short trips. Influencing people’s choice of transport mode on short trips should be an important part of efforts
encouraging the use of non-automobile alternatives.
相似文献
Gudmundur F. UlfarssonEmail: |
16.
Stated choice experiments have proven to be a powerful tool in eliciting preferences across a broad range of choice settings.
This paper outlines the elements of a group-based experiment designed for interdependent urban freight stakeholders, along
with the procedure to administer the questionnaire sequentially. The focus is on the design of a computer-assisted personal
survey instrument and the value in disseminating the details of a new approach to design and collect stated choice data for
interacting agents. The paper also discusses how to specify a reference alternative, and then how to recruit appropriate real-market
or representative decision-making group members to participate in a subsequent phase of the survey, which incorporates the
reference alternative and contextual information from an initial phase. The empirical strategy, set out in some detail, provides
a new framework within which to understand more fully the role that specific attributes, such as variable user charges, influencing
freight distribution chains might play, and who in the supply chain is affected by specific attributes in terms of willingness
to pay for the gains in distribution efficiency.
相似文献
Andrew CollinsEmail: |
17.
Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for English and Welsh electoral wards to relevant
socio-economic, transport and physical variables. A number of previous studies have exploited existing disaggregate data sets.
This study uses UK 2001 census data, is based on a logistic regression model and provides complementary evidence based on
aggregate data for the determinants of cycle choice. It suggests a saturation level for bicycle use of 43%. Smaller proportions
cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership. The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature
each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion
of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts
with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data. Forecasting shows
the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road
routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears
insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.
John Parkin joined academia after a career in consultancy. He has experience of all stages of the promotion of transport infrastructure, from planning and modelling to design and implementation. His specialises in transport engineering with an emphasis on design innovation, sustainability principles and community benefit. Mark Wardman has been involved in transport research for over 20 years. His main research interests are in behavioural response models in general and stated preference in particular. Areas of application have included public transport, notably rail, with several novel applications to cycling and environmental issues. Matthew Page research interests include transport policy and how it has developed, the environmental impacts of transport, the impacts of transport on climate change, and walking and cycling. 相似文献
Matthew PageEmail: |
John Parkin joined academia after a career in consultancy. He has experience of all stages of the promotion of transport infrastructure, from planning and modelling to design and implementation. His specialises in transport engineering with an emphasis on design innovation, sustainability principles and community benefit. Mark Wardman has been involved in transport research for over 20 years. His main research interests are in behavioural response models in general and stated preference in particular. Areas of application have included public transport, notably rail, with several novel applications to cycling and environmental issues. Matthew Page research interests include transport policy and how it has developed, the environmental impacts of transport, the impacts of transport on climate change, and walking and cycling. 相似文献
18.
The rapid and continuing changes in travel and mobility needs in India over the last decade necessitates the development and
use of dynamic models for travel demand forecasting rather than cross-sectional models. In this context, this paper investigates
mode choice dynamics among workers in Chennai city, India over a period of five years (1999–2004). Dynamics in mode choice
is captured at four levels: exogenous variable change, state-dependence, changes in users’ sensitivity to attributes, and
unobserved error terms. The results show that the dynamic models provide a substantial improvement (of over 500 log-likelihood
points and ρ2 increases from 44% to 68%) over the cross-sectional model. The performance was compared using two illustrative policy scenarios
with important methodological and practical implications. The results indicate that cross-sectional models tend to provide
inflated estimates of potential improvement measures. Improving the Level of Service (LOS) alone will not produce the anticipated
benefits to transit agencies, as it fails to overcome the persistent inertia captured in the state-dependence factors. The
results and models have important applications in the context of growing motorization and congestion management in developing
countries.
相似文献
P. BhargaviEmail: |
19.
Annual electric bike (e-bike) sales in China grew from 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in 2005. This rapid transition from human-powered
bicycles, buses and gasoline-powered scooters to an all-electric vehicle/fuel technology system is special in the evolution
of transportation technology and, thus far, unique to China. We examine how and why e-bikes developed so quickly in China
with particular focus on the key technical, economic, and political factors involved. This case study provides important insights
to policy makers in China and abroad on how timely regulatory policy can change the purchase choice of millions and create
a new mode of transportation. These lessons are especially important to China as it embarks on a large-scale transition to
personal vehicles, but also to other countries seeking more sustainable forms of transportation.
相似文献
Christopher CherryEmail: |
20.
This paper is a think piece on variations in the structure of stated preference studies when modelling the joint preferences
of interacting agents who have the power to influence the attribute levels on offer. The approach proposed is an extension
of standard stated choice methods, known as ‘stated endogenous attribute level’ (SEAL) analysis. It allows for interactive
agents to adjust attribute levels off a base stated choice specification that are within their control, in an effort to reach
agreement in an experimental setting. This accomplishes three goals: (1) the ability to place respondents in an environment
that more closely matches interactive settings in which some attribute levels are endogenous to a specific agent, should the
modeller wish to capture such behaviour; (2) the improved ability of the modeller to capture the behaviour in such settings,
including a greater wealth of information on the related interaction processes, rather than simply outcomes; and (3) the expansion of the set of situations that the modeller can investigate using experimental
data.
相似文献
John M. RoseEmail: |