An epsilon-optimal algorithm considering greenhouse gas emissions for the management of a ship’s bunker fuel

This paper provides an algorithm to minimize the fixed ordering, purchase, and inventory-carrying costs associated with bunker fuel together with ship time costs; and environmental costs associated with greenhouse gas emissions. It determines the optimum ship speed, bunkering ports, and amounts of bunker fuel for a given ship’s route. To solve the problem, we use an epsilon-optimal algorithm by deriving a property. The algorithm is illustrated by applying it to typical sample data obtained and the effects of bunker prices, carbon taxes, and ship time costs on the ship speed are analyzed. The results indicate that the ship speed and CO₂ emissions are highly sensitive to the factors considered.     

Electric vehicles for greenhouse gas reduction in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

There have been ongoing debates over whether battery electric vehicles contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China’s context, and if yes, whether the greenhouse gas emissions reduction compensates the cost increment. This study informs such debate by examining the life-cycle cost and greenhouse gas emissions of conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles, and comparing their cost-effectiveness for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate that under a wide range of vehicle and driving configurations (range capacity, vehicle use intensity, etc.), battery electric vehicles contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared with conventional vehicles, although their current cost-effectiveness is not comparable with hybrid electric vehicles. Driven by grid mix optimization, power generation efficiency improvement, and battery cost reduction, the cost-effectiveness of battery electric vehicles is expected to improve significantly over the coming decade and surpass hybrid electric vehicles. However, considerable uncertainty exists due to the potential impacts from factors such as gasoline price. Based on the analysis, it is recommended that the deployment of battery electric vehicles should be prioritized in intensively-used fleets such as taxis to realize high cost-effectiveness. Technology improvements both in terms of power generation and vehicle electrification are essential in improving the cost-effectiveness of battery electric vehicles.     

Assessing greenhouse gas emissions from port vessel operations at the Port of Incheon

This paper measures greenhouse gas emissions from port vessel operations by considering the case of Korea’s Port of Incheon. It provides estimates of greenhouse gas emissions based on the type and the movement of a vessel from the moment of its arrival, to its docking, cargo handling, and departure. Taking a bottom-up approach based on individual vessels’ characteristics and using data on vessels processed by the port in 2012 estimate emissions. The results indicate that the level of emissions is five times higher than that estimated through the top-down approach. Among various types of vessels, international car ferries are the heaviest emitters, followed by full container vessels and car carriers. A vessel’s passage through lock gates and maneuver to approach the dock accounts for 96% of its emissions. Docking for cargo handling shows the lowest level of GHG emissions.     

The viability of pure vegetable oil as an alternative fuel for large ships

Heavy fuels are likely to remain the dominant fuel source for two-stroke, low-speed diesel engines for large ship propulsion for the next decade or more. There is however, potential for increased use of pure vegetable oils (PVO) as an alternative and, by emitting lower levels of several pollutants, this can help the attainment of Annex VI of the MARPOL 73/78 convention aimed at large ships using fuels with less than 4.5% sulphur or 1.5% sulphur in SO_X emission control areas The use of alternative fuels can also influence the attainment of the Kyoto protocol that requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by 5% by 2010 compared to 1990. This paper analyses the physical and chemical properties of various pure vegetable oils as an alternative to heavy fuel oil for large ship propulsion.     

The costs and benefits of reducing SO2 emissions from ships in the US West Coastal waters

Potential costs and benefits of policy options for reducing offshore ship pollution are examined using a meta-analysis of studies synthesized regionally for the US West Coast. Net benefits of reducing SO₂ emissions from cargo ships in the US West Coast waters are found to range between $98 million and $284 million, annually; the benefit–cost ratio varies between 1.8 and 3.36, depending on the size of the control area and the sulfur content limit. The results show that about 21,000 tons of on-land equivalent SO₂ emissions or about 33% of SO₂ emissions from all mobile sources in California in 2005 can be reduced annually if the US West Coast exclusive economic zone is designated as an International Maritime Organization-compliant SO_x emission control area (SECA) with fuel-sulfur content not exceeding 1.5%. The analysis demonstrates that designating this area reduces more emissions than establishing a smaller zone at a lower but favorable benefit-cost ratio. Control measures that require 0.5% low-sulfur fuels reduce more SO₂ emissions, and also may have higher net benefits. Technological alternatives may achieve benefits of emissions reductions on the US West Coast across higher ranges of potential fuel prices. Combinations of fuel switching and control technology strategies provide the most cost-effective benefits from SECAs on the US West Coast and other world regions.     

Assessing greenhouse gas and related air pollutant emissions from road traffic counts: A case study for Mauritius

The road transport sector is one of the major contributors of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants emissions. Regional emissions levels from road vehicles were investigated, in Mauritius, by applying a fuel-based approach. We estimated fuel consumption and air emissions based on traffic counts on the various types of classified roads at three different regional set ups, namely urban, semi urban and rural. The Relative Development Index (RDI), a composite index calculated from socio-economic and environmental indicators was used to classify regions. Our results show that the urban motorways were the most polluting due to heavy traffic. Some rural areas had important pollution levels as well. Our analysis of variance (ANOVA), however, showed little difference in emissions among road types and regions. The study can provide a simple tool for researchers in countries where data are very scarce, as is the case for many developing countries.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of car distance,greenhouse gases and the effect of built environment: A latent class regression analysis

This work examines the temporal–spatial variations of daily automobile distance traveled and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and their association with built environment attributes and household socio-demographics. A GHGs household inventory is determined using link-level average speeds for a large and representative sample of households in three origin–destination surveys (1998, 2003 and 2008) in Montreal, Canada. For the emission inventories, different sources of data are combined including link-level average speeds in the network, vehicle occupancy levels and fuel consumption characteristics of the vehicle fleet. Urban form indicators over time such as population density, land use mix and transit accessibility are generated for each household in each of the three waves. A latent class (LC) regression modeling framework is then implemented to investigate the association of built environment and socio-demographics with GHGs and automobile distance traveled. Among other results, it is found that population density, transit accessibility and land-use mix have small but statistically significant negative impact on GHGs and car usage. Despite that this is in accordance with past studies, the estimated elasticities are greater than those reported in the literature for North American cities. Moreover, different household subpopulations are identified in which the effect of built environment varies significantly. Also, a reduction of the average GHGs at the household level is observed over time. According to our estimates, households produced 15% and 10% more GHGs in 1998 and 2003 respectively, compared to 2008. This reduction can be associated to the improvement of the fuel economy of vehicle fleet and the decrease of motor-vehicle usage – e.g., a decrease of 4% is observed for fuel efficiency rates and 12% for distance according to the raw average estimates from 1998 with respect to 2008. A strong link is also observed between socio-demographics and the two travel outcomes. While number of workers is positively associated with car distance and GHGs, low and medium income households pollute less than high-income households.     

Modeling NOx and NO2 emissions from mobile sources: A case study for Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

This study characterizes the dispersion of emissions of oxides of nitrogen and nitrogen dioxide from traffic sources in the Hamilton census metropolitan area. The Integrated Model of Urban Landuse and Transportation for Environmental Analysis software was used to estimate emissions of oxides of nitrogen from traffic sources. The Air Pollution Model, was used to simulate dispersion of the traffic emissions over the city. The models account for the two primary wind directions in this region – the prevailing southwest and a secondary northeast direction. The results show a prominent triangle of high pollution defined by major roads and highways along the periphery of the Hamilton Harbour, at peak-hour. With southwest winds, residential areas along the northern shoreline of the Harbour are affected, while the western sections of the city are affected by northeast winds. High concentrations are persistent in some areas, for both wind directions. The resulting dispersion surfaces characterize the spatial distribution of traffic emissions and thus provide a means of assessing population exposure over the Hamilton area.     

Field investigation and parametric study of greenhouse gas emissions from railway plain-line renewals

Railway transportation is becoming increasingly important in many parts of the world for mass transport of passengers and freight. This study was prompted by the industry’s need to systemically estimate greenhouse gas emissions from railway construction and maintenance activities. In this paper, the emphasis is placed on plain-line railway maintenance and renewal projects. The objective of this study was to reduce the uncertainties and assumptions of previous studies based on ballasted track maintenance and renewal projects. A field-based data collection was carried out on plain-line ballasted track renewals. The results reveal that the emissions from the materials contribute more than nine times the CO₂-e emissions than the machines used in the renewal projects. The results show that extending the lifespan of rail infrastructure assets through maintenance is beneficial in terms of reducing CO₂-e emissions. Analysis was then carried out using the field data. Then the results were compared to two ballastless track alternatives. The results show that CO₂-e emissions per metre from ballasted track were the least overall, however, the maintenance CO₂-e emissions are greater than those of ballastless tracks over the infrastructure lifespan, with ballasted track maintenance emitting more CO₂-e emissions at the 30 and 60 year intervals and the end of life when compared to the ballastless track types. The outcome of the study can provide decision makers, construction schedulers, environmental planners and project planners with reasonably accurate GHG emission estimates that can be used to plan, forecast and reduce emissions for plain-line renewal projects.     

Assessing the energy and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation effectiveness of potential US modal freight policies

This paper estimates the total embodied energy and emissions modal freight requirements across the supply chain for each of over 400 sectors using Bureau of Transportation Statistics Commodity Flow Survey data and Bureau of Economic Analysis economic input-output tables for 2002. Across all sectors, direct domestic truck and rail transportation are similar in magnitude for embodied freight transportation of goods and services in terms of ton-km. However, the sectors differ significantly in energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and costs per ton-km. Recent pressure to reduce energy consumption and emissions has motivated a search for more efficient freight mode choices. One solution would be to shift freight transportation away from modes that require more energy and emit more (e.g., truck) to modes that consume and emit less (e.g., rail and water).Our results show there are no individual sectors for which targeting changes would significantly decrease the total freight transportation energy and emissions, therefore we have also looked at the prospect of policies encouraging many sectors to shift modes. There are four scenarios analyzed: (1) shifting all truck to rail, shifting top 20% sector mode choice, (2) based on their emissions, (3) based on a multi-attribute analysis, and (4) increasing truck efficiency (e.g., mpg). Increasing truck efficiency by 10% results in similar energy and emissions reductions (approximately 7% for energy and 6% for emissions) as targeting the top 20% of sectors when selected based on emissions, whereas selecting the top 20% based on availability to shift from truck results in slightly less reductions of energy and emissions. Implementing policies to encourage higher efficiency in freight trucks may be a sufficient short term goal while efforts to reduce truck freight transportation through sectoral policies are implemented in the long term.     

Well-to-wheel costs,primary energy demand,and greenhouse gas emissions for the production and operation of conventional and alternative vehicles

This study provides a comprehensive comparison of well-to-wheel (WTW) energy demand, WTW GHG emissions, and costs for conventional ICE and alternative passenger car powertrains, including full electric, hybrid, and fuel cell powertrains. Vehicle production, operation, maintenance, and disposal are considered, along with a range of hydrogen production processes, electricity mixes, ICE fuels, and battery types. Results are determined based on a reference vehicle, powertrain efficiencies, life cycle inventory data, and cost estimations. Powertrain performance is measured against a gasoline ICE vehicle. Energy carrier and battery production are found to be the largest contributors to WTW energy demand, GHG emissions, and costs; however, electric powertrain performance is highly sensitive to battery specific energy. ICE and full hybrid vehicles using alternative fuels to gasoline, and fuel cell vehicles using natural gas hydrogen production pathways, are the only powertrains which demonstrate reductions in all three evaluation categories simultaneously (i.e., WTW energy demand, emissions, and costs). Overall, however, WTW emission reductions depend more on the energy carrier production pathway than on the powertrain; hence, alternative energy carriers to gasoline for an ICE-based fleet (including hybrids) should be emphasized from a policy perspective in the short-term. This will ease the transition towards a low-emission fleet in Switzerland.     

A comparative life-cycle energy and emissions analysis for intercity passenger transportation in the U.S. by aviation,intercity bus,and automobile

Intercity passenger trips constitute a significant source of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and criteria pollutant emissions. The most commonly used city-to-city modes in the United States include aircraft, intercity bus, and automobile. This study applies state-of-the-practice models to assess life-cycle fuel consumption and pollutant emissions for intercity trips via aircraft, intercity bus, and automobile. The analyses compare the fuel and emissions impacts of different travel mode scenarios for intercity trips ranging from 200 to 1600 km. Because these modes operate differently with respect to engine technology, fuel type, and vehicle capacity, the modeling techniques and modeling boundaries vary significantly across modes. For aviation systems, much of the energy and emissions are associated with auxiliary equipment activities, infrastructure power supply, and terminal activities, in addition to the vehicle operations between origin/destination. Furthermore, one should not ignore the embodied energy and initial emissions from the manufacturing of the vehicles, and the construction of airports, bus stations, highways and parking lots. Passenger loading factors and travel distances also significantly influence fuel and emissions results on a per-traveler basis. The results show intercity bus is generally the most fuel-efficient mode and produced the lowest per-passenger-trip emissions for the entire range of trip distances examined. Aviation is not a fuel-efficient mode for short trips (<500 km), primarily due to the large energy impacts associated with takeoff and landing, and to some extent from the emissions of ground support equipment associated with any trip distance. However, aviation is more energy efficient and produces less emissions per-passenger-trip than low-occupancy automobiles for trip distances longer than 700–800 km. This study will help inform policy makers and transportation system operators about how differently each intercity system perform across all activities, and provides a basis for future policies designed to encourage mode shifts by range of service. The estimation procedures used in this study can serve as a reference for future analyses of transportation scenarios.     

High-speed rail's potential for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from short haul aviation: a longitudinal study of modal substitution from an energy generation and renewable energy perspective

Abstract

This paper quantifies and evaluates, utilising a ‘bottom-up’ approach, the effect on CO₂ emissions of a modal shift from short-haul air travel to high-speed rail (HSR), based on projected passenger movements, between Sydney and Melbourne, Australia during the period 2010–2030. To date, peer-reviewed studies assessing the CO₂ emissions from these competing modes of high-speed transportation have been restricted principally to a cross-sectional assessment, with a Eurocentric bias. This present comparative study seeks to address a gap in the literature by assessing, longitudinally, the CO₂ emissions associated with the proposed operation of HSR against the ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario between Sydney and Melbourne. Under the assumed 50/50 modal shift, and the Australian government's current renewable electricity target, an annual reduction in CO₂ emissions of approximately 14% could be achieved when compared with a ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario. This percentage reduction represents a 62 kt reduction in base year, 2010, and a 114 kt reduction in the final year, 2030. In total, the overall reduction achieved by such a modal shift, under the assumed conditions, during the period 2010–2030, equates to approximately 1.87 Mt of CO₂. Importantly, if the electrical energy supply for HSR operations was further ‘decarbonised’, then it follows that a greater emission reduction would be achieved.     

Estimating the long-term effects of different passenger car technologies on energy/fuel consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases in Europe

Abstract

A stated preference (SP) experiment of car ownership was conducted in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) of Maharashtra in India. A full factorial experiment was designed to considering various attributes such as travel time, travel cost, projected household income, car loan payment and servicing cost. Data on 357 individuals were collected which resulted in 3213 observations for the calibration of the work trip and recreational trip car ownership models. The car ownership alternatives considered 0, 1 and 2 cars. A multinomial logit framework was used to develop the car ownership model taking the household as a decision unit. The specification and results of the SP car ownership model are discussed. The observed and predicted values matched reasonably when the validity of the SP car ownership model was tested against revealed preference (RP) data. The car ownership models developed in this study exhibit a satisfactory goodness of fit. It is concluded that the SP modelling approach can be successfully used for modelling car ownership decisions of households in developing countries.     

A network-based dispatch model for evaluating the spatial and temporal effects of plug-in electric vehicle charging on GHG emissions

The well-to-wheel emissions associated with plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) depend on the source of electricity and the current non-vehicle demand on the grid, thus must be evaluated via an integrated systems approach. We present a network-based dispatch model for the California electricity grid consisting of interconnected sub-regions to evaluate the impact of growing PEV demand on the existing power grid infrastructure system and energy resources. This model, built on a linear optimization framework, simultaneously considers spatiality and temporal dynamics of energy demand and supply. It was successfully benchmarked against historical data, and used to determine the regional impacts of several PEV charging profiles on the current electricity network. Average electricity carbon intensities for PEV charging range from 244 to 391 gCO₂e/kW h and marginal values range from 418 to 499 gCO₂e/kW h.     

Forecasting petrol demand and assessing the impact of selective strategies to reduce fuel consumption

Abstract

The use of fossil fuels in transportation is an important topic as a result of growing concerns over global warming. Automobile petrol demand has been of particular interest to researchers and policy-makers, given that the automobile is a major contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. This paper forecasts Australia's automobile petrol demand up to the year 2020 based on the best performing forecasting model selected out of eight models. In order to establish ways to reduce the demand for petrol, and the consequent by-product of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, we have estimated the impact on CO₂ for several potential policy instruments, using Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator (an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation programme). We find that a carbon tax of AU$0.50/kg can reduce automobile kilometres by 5.9%, resulting in reduced demand for petrol and a reduction in CO₂ of 1.5%.     

PM10 concentrations and the size distribution of Cu and Fe-containing particles in Istanbul’s subway system

In this study, PM₁₀ concentrations, as well as the size distributions of Fe-containing and Cu-containing particles are measured in six subway stations in Istanbul. The average daily PM₁₀ concentrations are found to vary considerably. They were also found to be significantly higher than the levels found at urban air quality stations. Further, the relative abundance of Fe-containing particles among the particles of size >2.1 μm collected in the metro stations is 3.5-8 times higher than in the in the Istanbul atmosphere.