台湾海峡水域搁浅事故的方差分析

船舶搁浅事故造成的经济损失和海洋环境污染是台湾海峡水域主要危害之一.为减少搁浅事故的发生,使台湾海峡水域的船舶航行更安全、海洋环境更清洁,以台湾海峡水域搁浅事故为例,在统计分析船舶搁浅事故特征的基础上,选用方差分析法对搁浅事故因素相关性和差异性进行了系统的分析.提出了台湾海峡水域搁浅事故中人为因素所占比例最高,水深不足...     

Investigation on structural performance predictions of double-bottom tankers during shoal grounding accidents

An investigation is carried out in this paper for the predictions of structural performance of double-bottom tankers during ship grounding over the “shoal” type seabed obstacles. Hong and Amdahl developed a simplified analytical model for the unstiffened double bottom. This method is carefully studied, verified and then used as the first stage of our prediction. The second stage is concerned with stiffeners since stiffeners are indispensable components for double-bottom tankers. A prevailing way to handle is to smear stiffeners onto their attached plating known as the smeared thickness method. However, the effective ratio in this method is dubious in such shoal grounding accidents. Proper values of this parameter are determined in stage two, and then together with the method in stage one, constitute a reliable and efficient tool for structural performance predictions of double-bottom structures in shoal grounding accidents.A double-bottom tanker is chosen as object for the case study. Finite element models of the hold both stiffened and unstiffened are created for numerical simulations using the LS_DYNA software. Simulation cases cover a wide range of slope angles of the indenter and indentations. Numerical results show that Hong and Amdahl's model in stage one is capable of predicting energy dissipation with high precision but poor accuracy for grounding resistances, and a possible reason may be the neglect of vertical resistance. The updated smeared method proposed in stage two is also proved to be capable of grasping major characteristics of stiffeners. Results and conclusions drawn from this paper can be conveniently applied for assessments of the performance of ship double-bottom structures during shoal sliding grounding scenarios, and will benefit the application of accidental limit state design concept in the ship design stage.     

Culture in maritime safety

Many accidents, resulting in a larger number of fatalities during the last few years, have focused attention on issues of maritime safety. Accident registration reveals that a large proportion have human related causes, and indicates that, by looking at cultural aspects, one's understanding of the underlying mechanisms leading to accidents might increase. Several constructs of culture and climate have appeared on national, organizational and safety levels. Those constructs are discussed together with problems that occur when interpreting accidental data, and recording accidental causes. The papers reviewed indicate the existence of a 'chain of evidence' from accidents/safety to attitudes, communications, conflict-solving, etc. and further to safety culture. To be able to reduce the risk for accidents, there seems to be a need for coordination and the cultural perspective seems to be one that integrates and takes the many disciplines and multi-level nature of accidents and safety into account.     

Culture in maritime safety

Many accidents, resulting in a larger number of fatalities during the last few years, have focused attention on issues of maritime safety. Accident registration reveals that a large proportion have human related causes, and indicates that, by looking at cultural aspects, one's understanding of the underlying mechanisms leading to accidents might increase. Several constructs of culture and climate have appeared on national, organizational and safety levels. Those constructs are discussed together with problems that occur when interpreting accidental data, and recording accidental causes. The papers reviewed indicate the existence of a ‘chain of evidence’ from accidents/safety to attitudes, communications, conflict-solving, etc. and further to safety culture. To be able to reduce the risk for accidents, there seems to be a need for coordination and the cultural perspective seems to be one that integrates and takes the many disciplines and multi-level nature of accidents and safety into account.     

Analysis of occupational accidents encountered by deck cadets in maritime transportation

The 2010 Manila amendments to the Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping Code (STCW) was adopted by the idea to render the profession more attractive to the seafarers, particularly to cadets. It is possible to ensure greater attraction only by providing suitable and safe working conditions on board to cadets. This study analyses occupational accidents and near misses encountered by ocean going deck cadets, who received A-II/I training, during their sea training. The aim of this study was to determine causal factors influencing work accidents and to propose several recommendations for the safety of deck cadets. A total of 857 officer candidates, who received maritime education at university level in Turkey, were interviewed. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used in the study to analyse the occupational accidents. As a result of this study on deck cadets, the most risky areas for work accidents were found to be the deck (39.9%), cargo areas (35.7%), areas used for manoeuvring operations (including winch areas and areas in which berthing, unberthing, and anchoring operations take place) (16.1%), and accommodation areas (8.3%). The most important root causes for occupational accidents were identified as not using personal protective equipment (24.2%), haste (22.6%), and presence in inappropriate places (13.6%). This study offers some important insight into the prevention of occupational accidents, and includes suggestions and advisory opinions of sector representatives. As a result of this study, several recommendations for the prevention of accidents are proposed.     

Incident reporting in Finnish shipping companies

The purpose of the International Safety Management Code (the ISM Code) is to promote safety culture in the maritime industry. Learning the lessons from incidents should help to improve safety performance since incidents and accidents can share the same root causes. The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at incident reporting in the Finnish shipping industry, to study the reasons for poor incident reporting and to suggest improvements to increase reporting. The paper consists of a literature study, which focuses on previous studies concerning incident reporting, and an interview study, which focuses on Finnish shipping companies and their personnel. The interview study confirmed that incident reporting does not function properly within the Finnish maritime industry. The maritime personnel have an occupational culture which is incompatible with the rule-based safety management approach provided by the ISM Code. The willingness to report incidents could be increased if all seafarers were involved in the reporting process and the preparation of corrective actions. In addition, the reporting procedures should be streamlined and developed to a more user-friendly direction.     

Causes of casualties and the regulation of occupational health and safety in the shipping industry

The aim of this paper is to investigate maritime safety from an occupational hazards perspective as opposed to a maritime casualty perspective. It is recognised that safety in shipping should encompass casualties arising from accidents occurring in the course of performing normal seafaring duties, not just those arising from technical defects or maritime disasters. The paper discusses an investigation involving a survey of 19 flag states and two detailed studies of records kept at the Hong Kong and Singapore maritime administrations. The results indicate that occupational accidents account for a significant proportion of fatalities at sea. The statistics presented specify the ship types that are most at risk, as well as the types of occupational hazards that can most frequently lead to accidents and fatalities. The results of this study indicate voids in the process of investigating fatalities that relate to occupational accidents. These results also indicate inadequate investigation of events and causes. The creation of a database of such information could potentially be used for the development of appropriate regulations that could prevent fatal and non-fatal occupational accidents through regulatory processes.     

Modified environmental contour method for predicting long-term extreme responses of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines

Predicting extreme responses is very important in designing a bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines. The commonly used method that account for the variability of the response and the environmental conditions is the full long-term analysis (FLTA), which is accurate but time consuming. It is a direct integration of all the probability distribution of short-term extremes and the environmental conditions. Since the long-term extreme responses are usually governed by very few important environmental conditions, the long-term analysis can be greatly simplified if such conditions are identified. For offshore structures, one simplified method is the environmental contour method (ECM), which uses the short-term extreme probability distribution of important environmental conditions selected on the contour surface with the relevant return periods. However, because of the inherent difference of offshore wind turbines and ordinary offshore structures, especially their non-monotonic behavior of the responses under wind loads, ECM cannot be directly applied because the environmental condition it selects is not close to the actual most important one.The paper presents a modified environmental contour method (MECM) for bottom-fixed offshore wind turbine applications. It can identify the most important environmental condition that governs the long-term extreme. The method is tested on the NREL 5 MW wind turbine supported by a simplified jacket-type support structure. Compared to the results of FLTA, MECM yields accurate results and is shown to be an efficient and reliable method for the prediction of the extreme responses of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines.     

Analytical investigation of marine casualties at the Strait of Istanbul with SWOT–AHP method

The Strait of Istanbul is one of the most dangerous and busiest sea passages, according to its narrowness, sharp turns, currents, heavy traffic and many other important factors. Despite the latest precautions, marine incidents still occur, especially in narrow seaways. This study shows that a management tool that is specifically applied for reducing marine casualties and consequently enhancement of safety and ship management performance can be used to prevent accidents and casualties in maritime transportation. In this study, factors which affect marine casualties examined and determined with SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis method and weighting of the factors determined by using the AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method. With this approach, strategic action plans were developed for minimizing shipping casualties at the Strait of Istanbul, taking into account the weighting factors and previously happened accidents.     

阿芙拉型双壳油轮意外泄油性能研究

摘要：以110000t阿芙拉型双壳油轮为实例对货油舱进行意外泄油性能进行了分析,指出了影响平均泄油量参数oM的若干重要因素,即：载重量dwt,货舱总舱容C,惰性气体系统正常超压P,货油舱的双壳宽度和双层底高度。采用列表计算的方式简化了平均泄油量参数OM的计算过程,阐述了各因素在计算过程中对平均泄油量参数OM的影响。     

Determinants of the damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the property damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents. Detailed data of individual ferry vessel accidents for the 11-year timeperiod 1991–2001 that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard are used to estimate ferry-vessel accident property damage cost and injury severity equations. Tobit regression is used to estimate the former equation and the ordered probit model is used to estimate the latter. Property damage costs include damage costs to the vessel itself, its cargo and contents, and other-property damage (e.g., damage to pier structures and waterfront facilities). Injury severity for a ferry vessel accident is measured as an ordinal variable — no injuries, non-fatal injuries and fatal injuries. Damage cost and injury severity of individual ferry vessel accidents are expressed as functions of the type of vessel accident, vessel characteristics, vessel operation phase, weather/visibility conditions, type of waterway, type of vessel propulsion, type of vessel hull construction and cause of vessel accident. The property damage estimation results suggest that allision, collision and fire ferry vessel accidents incur more vessel property damage cost per vessel gross ton than other types of accidents. The injury severity estimation results suggest that injury severity is greater when the ferry vessel accident is caused by human error as opposed to vessel and environmental factors.     

Determinants of the severity of passenger vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants and the damage cost of passenger vessel accidents that were investigated by the US Coast Guard for the years 1991-2001. Negative binomial and Poisson regression estimates suggest that: (1) passenger-freight combination vessel accidents incur greater injuries than other types of passenger vessels, (2) deaths are greater when precipitation weather and poor visibility exist and (3) missing occupants are greater for capsize accidents and larger the vessel. The damage cost per vessel gross ton is less for ocean cruise and steel-hulled vessels. The major conclusion of the study is that human (as opposed to environmental and vessel) causes of passenger vessel accidents result in increases in the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants.     

The analysis of life safety and economic loss in marine accidents occurring in the Turkish Straits

The increase in the world's trading capacity, which has been spurred by globalization, has caused problems in marine transportation, namely congestion. Despite the safety measures currently in place, marine accidents are still not being prevented. This study focuses on marine accidents in the Turkish Straits that have done serious harm to humans, the natural environment, and the economy. To reduce the negative impacts mentioned above, this study considered the most common types of accidents, their causes, and their results. For this purpose, 850 serious marine accidents, which took place in the Turkish Straits between the years of 2001 and 2010 (as recorded by the Undersecretaries for Maritime Affairs), have been analyzed and the data obtained have been systematically tabulated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology. According to the data, the most significant cause of marine accidents in the Turkish Straits is human error. This study proposes measures to ensure that ship personnel are competent, mentally and physically, to navigate narrow and dangerous waterways in order to minimize the amount of accidents caused by human error.     

广西近海溢油扩散数值模拟

利用MIKE 21 HD模块模拟广西近海二维潮流特性,根据实测水文资料对广西近海二维水动力模型进行了验证。应用MIKE 21 OS溢油模块加载广西近海二维水动力数据,建立广西近海二维溢油扩散模型,对溢油事故进行影响预测。研究结果表明,风场、潮流场和溢油事故发生位置对溢油轨迹都有着重要影响。风场是油膜漂移方向的最大影响因素,在不同溢油事故发生位置的工况下,溢油的漂移轨迹和扫海范围可能完全不同。     

Large deformation coupled analysis of embedded pipeline – Soil lateral interaction

Subsea pipelines buried in the seabed may undergo large lateral displacement under environmental, operational, and accidental loads at different interaction rates and hence different drainage conditions. The undrained shear strength is commonly used in practice to assess the pipe-soil interaction assuming a sufficiently high displacement rate. This approach neglects consolidation effects and the rate-dependent response of the soil and may significantly underestimates the lateral resistance for a pipeline moving slowly relative to the ground. In this study, a coupled large deformation finite element (LDFE) framework is developed via a remeshing and interpolation technique with small strain (RITSS). A Modified Cam-Clay (MCC) model with efficient numerical integration is used. The proposed coupled LDFE framework is verified against selected physical model tests. Effects of the interaction rate and hence drainage condition on the p-y curve, excess pore pressure generation and dissipation, and failure mechanisms are discussed. An empirical relationship between the ultimate resistance and the normalized velocity of the pipe (denoting the drainage condition) is proposed, which may be applied for the integrity and safety analysis of buried pipes in landslide or fault-crossing regions.     

台湾海峡及附近水域海难事故的灰色关联分析

运用灰色关联系统分别分析了所有船舶和300 gt及以上的船舶在台湾海峡及附近水域中发生的海难事故,并对碰撞、触礁或搁浅、触碰、失火或爆炸、机械故障、倾斜或倾覆等六类海难事故,进行了灰色关联矩阵运算及分析。分析结果表明该水域海难事故以300 gt以下的小船所占比率较高,同时该水域海难事故类型以机械故障具较高关联性;当排除300 gt以下的船舶后,该水域海难事故类型则以碰撞具较高关联性。     

Financial and environmental impacts of hypothetical Finnish dry port structure

One main theme of European Union’s in transport policy statements has been the increased role of railways in the reducing environmental impacts and costs of transport activity. One option to increase the modal share of rail transport is to utilize the dry port concept, particularly applicable to general cargo. At the Port of Gothenburg (Sweden) use of this concept in combination with rail transport has led to a reduction of CO₂ emissions, and lower transport energy costs. The main objective and motivation of this research work are to examine through analytical models, how this same dry port concept could be implemented in the Finnish transportation network, with estimates of the benefits being gained.The research method of this study is macro gravitational models of distribution. Main input data for the models are distances and population in the area. The approach aims to research, how relative transport costs behave by increasing the number of dry port distribution locations. For the actual computation work the authors apply linear integer programming. Based on the results, the authors argue that relative transport costs can decrease considerably by increasing the number of dry ports, up to the level of six locations. This is considerably less than what is the current situation in Sweden. The found solution also differs from Sweden as the fragmented Finnish seaport system enables using numerous seaports instead of one, which further decreases inland transportation distances and volumes considerably. At the same time forthcoming sulphur emission reduction regulation (for sea transports) might impact the transportation network structure by decreasing sea transport and the number of seaports used. This might lead to a further increase in land-based hinterland transport.     

Assessment of the chemical concentrations and the environmental risk of tank cleaning effluents in the Baltic Sea

The environmental risks of tank cleaning waters were evaluated in this study by conducting a risk assessment of five target chemicals (nonylphenol, phenol, sulphuric acid, styrene and xylenes) following EU risk assessment methodology in which the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of the chemicals are determined and compared to their corresponding predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs). The results of the risk assessment demonstrated the importance of prewashing cargo tanks ashore before the main washing. Without prewashing the cargo tanks and discharging the generated prewashing effluents into reception facilities ashore, the PEC/PNEC ratios obtained for further washings exceed accepted levels regardless of the chemical and the quantity of chemical residue (15:50:300 l). In contrast, if the cargo tanks are prewashed and the remaining prewash residues in the tanks are small (≤15 l), the risk arising from tank cleaning effluents stays at accepted levels, and no harm is caused to aquatic organisms. When the prewash residue is around 50 l, the risk arising from further washings mostly remains at accepted levels. Whenever the prewashing is carried out, the tank washings only represent a minor and local risk for water biota. The study showed that prewashing requirements for the most hazardous category of X cargoes and high-viscosity and solidifying Y cargoes are necessary to keep the hazards arising from these substances at accepted levels. Furthermore, MARPOL Y class also includes persistent and toxic chemicals whose release in the sea without prewashing is not recommended, even if the regulations might not necessarily require prewashing.     

基于FTA的渔船海损事故分析

事故树分析(FTA)是一种重要而常用的系统安全分析方法。将该方法运用到了渔船海事分析中,并以渔船触礁事故为例运用事故树描述事故的因果关系,进行定性分析,确定出事故的主要因素,提出了事故的控制措施。研究结果表明,在渔船海损事故分析中应用事故树分析方法,有利于对事故的全面分析,便于找出引发事故的直接原因,总结经验,提出事故预防措施,降低事故发生率,保障渔业生产的健康发展。     

Innovation types in the Finnish maritime cluster

The Finnish maritime cluster is an important sector of Finland's economy. However, literature on innovative activities within the cluster is limited. This article focuses on Finnish shipbuilding and marine industry firms. Several innovation types are identified. These are analyzed according to general characteristics of firms. The data is from a survey of 148 shipbuilding and marine industry companies; most of the variables are ordinal scale and are analyzed with standard statistical survey methods. Considering the significance and past technological achievements of the sector the results indicate surprisingly low radical innovation related-activity and attitudes towards it. As well, the results provide no evidence to support previous research, suggesting that the shipbuilding and marine industry produces more organizational than technological innovations. The innovativeness of the firms varies according to distinct characteristics such as size, intensity of in-house and collaborative R&D activities, and level of internationalization. The empirical results provide a platform for policy implications and directions for future research; innovations concerning environmental efficiency are raised as an important future area of development.