Stochastic dynamic switching in fixed and flexible transit services as market entry-exit real options

The first analytical stochastic and dynamic model for optimizing transit service switching is proposed for “smart transit” applications and for operating shared autonomous transit fleets. The model assumes a region that requires many-to-one last mile transit service either with fixed-route buses or flexible-route, on-demand buses. The demand density evolves continuously over time as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The optimal policy is determined by solving the switching problem as a market entry and exit real options model. Analysis using the model on a benchmark computational example illustrates the presence of a hysteresis effect, an indifference band that is sensitive to transportation system state and demand parameters, as well as the presence of switching thresholds that exhibit asymmetric sensitivities to transportation system conditions. The proposed policy is computationally compared in a 24-hour simulation to a “perfect information” set of decisions and a myopic policy that has been dominant in the flexible transit literature, with results that suggest the proposed policy can reduce by up to 72% of the excess cost in the myopic policy. Computational experiments of the “modular vehicle” policy demonstrate the existence of an option premium for having flexibility to switch between two vehicle sizes.     

An integrated framework for assessing service efficiency and stability of rail transit systems

A well-designed service plan efficiently utilizes its infrastructure and ensures an acceptable level of service stability with consideration of potential incidents that disturb or disrupt the rail transit services. To perform service evaluation, an integrated process combining capacity, resource usage, and system reliability is required to quantify service efficiency and stability in a consistent way. This study adopts capacity-based indices, “capacity utilization” and “expected recovery time”, as the attributes for service efficiency and stability, and develops a comprehensive evaluation framework with three corresponding modules to incorporate capacity, service plan, and system reliability and maintainability simultaneously. The capacity analysis module computes the rail transit capacities under normal and degraded operations. The reliability module classifies and fits the proper reliability and maintainability distributions to the historical interruption data. The service efficiency and stability module analyzes the results of the previous two modules and evaluates the service efficiency and stability of rail transit service plans. Empirical results show that the established evaluation framework can not only evaluate the service efficiency and stability but also identify critical sections and time slots. This tool can help rail transit operators rapidly assess their operational changes and investment strategies related to efficiency and stability so as to provide efficient and stable services to their customers.     

“Comparing guideway transit implementation plans,including the impact on road traffic”

A methodology for comparing phased implementation plans for a new fixed guideway transit system in an urban area is presented. Four assumptions are made: (1) the guideway system replaces existing or planned bus service, (2) superior service on the new system results in increased ridership when compared to buses; (3) presence of the guideway facility redirects outward urban growth resulting in additional ridership, and (4) conversely, the absence of any action on the new guideway facility reinforces a diffuse urban growth pattern that creates an irreversible loss of transit ridership. The economic comparision of alternative plans includes total as well as “relative” inflation of principal cost components. A key feature of the proposed methodology is including in the comparisons the costs of private automobile mileage that could have been replaced by transit. These costs are expressed as “fuel” and “all other” automobile costs; favorable transit system implementation schedules can then be identified as a function of parametrically assumed values for these two unit costs. A hypothetical example demonstrates the proposed method.     

Tradable credits scheme and transit investment optimization for a two‐mode traffic network

This paper proposes an optimization model to minimize the “system costs” and guide travelers' behavior by exploring the optimal bus investment and tradable credits scheme design in a bimodal transportation system. Travelers' transport mode choice behavior (car or bus) and the modal equilibrium conditions between these two forms of transport are studied in the tradable credits scheme. Public transport priority is highlighted by charging car travelers credits only. The economies of scale presented by the transit system under the tradable credit scheme are analyzed by comparing the marginal cost and average cost. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the model. Furthermore, the effects of tradable credits schemes on bus investment and travelers' modal choice behavior are explored based on scenario discussions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The exceptional service of driverless metros

Automated People Movers can be classified on the basis of scale as “architectural”, institutional”, and “mass transit”. The paper examines mass transit applications in both America and overseas, with emphasis on experience in France, Great Britain, Copenhagen, Canada, and Japan. The benefits of automation are discussed.     

Non-commitment bias in public opinion on transit usage

Estimation of ridership on a new transit system in an area where no comparable service existed before is a difficult task of transit planning. Traditional modal split models cannot be used in these cases, because no data or basis for developing a new model or adjusting a “borrowed” model are available. One of the techniques which can be used in this type of situation, is to perform a “concept test” based on public opinion. This approach, however, is plagued with the phenomenon of non-commitment bias of interviewees, and tends to overestimate the ridership. A new fixed route and fixed schedule transit service in Johnson City in Tennessee provided a rare opportunity to perform an investigation on the non-commitment bias through “before” and “after” surveys. The analysis of the non-commitment and actual responses of a sample of residents revealed substantial bias. Overall, the non-commitment ridership estimate was about twice (100% greater than) the actual ridership.:It was also observed that the bias was higher for persons owning automobiles, and for work and shopping trips.     

Effect of time-value distributions on transit headway optimizations

The issue considered is whether the biases that result from assuming a single value of waiting time in variable-demand headway optimizations (and the demand models on which they are based) can have a significant impact on the results of the optimization. Marginal benefit functions based on binary probit demand models, and incorporating the alternative assumptions of either a single value of time, a discrete distribution of time values, or a continuous distribution of time values, are derived and compared for several cases. These comparisons indicate the possibility of significant errors in several cases, the most realistic of which is that of a highly heterogeneous market composed of a large segment of “choice riders” and a smaller segment of “transit captives”.     

Do high income households reduce driving more when living near rail transit?

Transportation planning today requires an understanding of how income and near-rail residence jointly influence household travel behavior. This article fills a gap in the literature by showing how vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and transit trips taken (TT) vary with income and rail transit access by neighborhood type. Results indicate that, when comparing households with similar incomes and examining how the “near-rail” versus “far from rail” VMT and TT gap varies by income, the cross-sectional reduction in nominal VMT and the increase in TT on a percentage basis is generally larger for higher-income households (>$50,000), and particularly so in neighborhoods dense with both jobs and population. These findings offer support for the notion that near-transit housing targeting higher-income households can have both sustainability and transit use benefits. We note, though, that equity considerations are a strong reason to include low-income housing near rail transit, and argue that policies focusing overly singly on either low-income or high-income housing near rail transit will not be as impactful as a robust focus on mixed-income housing developments in rail transit-oriented developments (TODs).     

The theory of second best in urban mass transit: Management in the public sector as a proforma exercise

This paper focuses on four issues. The first is the case of one-sided investments in mass transit in metropolitan areas of developing countries. It is pointed out that in many cases in which the conditions for optimum investment policies (Pareto's Optimum) are not maintained, excessive investments on mass transit, including large annual operating subsidies, usually lead to substantial sub-optimizations and waste of scarce financial resources. This problem is then reviewed under the light of the “Theory of Second Best” as articulated for all investment options within Welfare Economic Theory. The second issue examined is the matter of recently discovered important diseconomies of scale of large metro transit systems in developing and developed countries, and the need to retain production of transport services within small-scale production units that are well coordinated and controlled. The third issue discussed is the problem of mismanagement of most public sector transit companies and agencies. The notion that most such systems are simply administered, not managed, is being brought up and the requirements for proper management are amplified. Finally, the case of public vs. private ownership of mass transit is being discussed with a distinction between public policies of providing mass transit services and the actual production process of these services. Provision of services represents a public responsibility that belongs to the public sector. However, production of service is a techno-economic process that requires different talents and circumstances. The paper concludes with a strong suggestion for major reorientation of urban mass transit in the metro areas of developing countries towards more efficiency and higher productivity.     

Survey and empirical evaluation of nonhomogeneous arrival process models with taxi data

Arrival processes are important inputs to many transportation system functions, such as vehicle prepositioning, taxi dispatch, bus holding strategies, and dynamic pricing. We conduct a comprehensive survey of the literature which shows that many transport systems employ basic homogeneous arrival process models or static nonhomogeneous processes. We conduct an empirical experiment to compare five state of the art arrival process short term prediction models using a common transportation system data set: New York taxi passenger pickups in 2013. Pickup data is split between 672 observations for model estimation and 96 observations for validation. From our experiment, we obtain evidence to support a recent model called FM‐IntGARCH, which is able to combine the benefits of both time series models and discrete count processes. Using a set of seven performance metrics from the literature, FM‐IntGARCH is shown to outperform the offline models—seasonal factor method, piecewise linear model—as well as the online models—ARIMA, Gaussian Cox process. Implications for operating data‐driven “smart” transit systems and urban informatics are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implementation of interactive transit information kiosks at New York City transit facilities: Analysis of user utilization and lessons learned

Transit Traveler Information Systems (TTIS) comprise a wide range of technologies that transit agencies use to provide reliable and timely transit-related information to customers. The touch-screen interactive information kiosk is an example of these emerging TTIS technologies. This paper examines the implementation of interactive touch-screen information kiosks, known as “On the Go!” Touch-Screen Travel Stations, at Metropolitan Transportation Authority-New York City Transit (MTA-NYCT) facilities in 2011. It analyzes data from passenger intercept surveys, from the kiosks’ built-in application usage logs and from field observations to understand actual passenger utilization of the kiosks and to assess the implications for transit agencies. The field observations also made it possible to obtain a profile of kiosk users, which sheds light on the concept of the “digital divide.” The findings, presented as lessons learned, can help agencies elsewhere develop guidelines and effective strategies for implementing similar interactive transit information systems.     

Evaluating unintended outcomes of regional smart-growth strategies: Environmental justice and public health concerns

Many urban areas are perusing infill, transit oriented, and other “smart-growth” strategies to address a range of important regional goals. Denser and more mixed use urban development may increase sustainability and improve public health by reducing vehicle travel and increasing the share of trips made by transit, walking and bicycling. Fewer vehicle trips results in fewer greenhouse gas and toxic vehicle emissions, and more trips made by walking and bicycle increases physical activity. Prior research has largely focused on modeling and estimating the potential size of these and other smart-growth strategy benefits. A largely overlooked area is the potential for unexpected public health costs and environmental justice concerns that may result from increasing density. We evaluate regional land-use and transportation planning scenarios developed for the year 2040 by a metropolitan planning organization with a newly developed regional air quality modeling framework. Our results find that a set of regional plans designed by the MPO to promote smart-growth that are estimated to result in less vehicle use and fewer vehicle emissions than a more typical set of plans results in higher population exposure to toxic vehicle emissions. The smart-growth plans also result in greater income-exposure inequality, raising environmental justice concerns. We conclude that a more spatially detailed regional scale air quality analysis can inform the creation of smarter smart-growth plans.     

Transport coordination debate and the Japanese National Railways problem in postwar Japan

As the “railroad problem” in Japan became serious, there was a widespread debate calling for the implementation of a policy of transport coordination. Much debated themes were “inherent advantage,” “equal-footing,” “comprehensive transportation system,” and “economizing in transportation.” However, this not only had the effect of hampering the modernization of economic regulations for Japan's railroad industry, but also caused the Japanese National Railways's cumulative deficit to expand and placed a heavy economic burden on the public.     

“两山”理念在湖北十淅高速公路中的实践研究

本文从高速公路建设项目的角度出发就“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念的内涵及时代要求进行了论述,分析了当前“绿色交通”理念下的绿色公路建设施工与管理中存在的主要问题,同时结合“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念的具体内涵,以十淅高速公路(湖北段)项目为例,从施工管理、设计、施工技术等方面阐述了绿色交通理念在公路建设过程中的具体实践,为公路建设的绿色发展提供了借鉴意义。     

Traffic rationing and pricing in a linear monocentric city

This paper presents a simple spatial equilibrium model for a linear monocentric city to investigate the effects of rationing and pricing on morning commuters' travel cost and modal choice behavior in each location. Under rationing and pricing, every day in the morning peak hour, each commuter is classified as either “free” or “rationed”. “Free” commuters are allowed to use the highway without paying the toll, whereas “rationed” commuters can avoid the toll only if they travel by transit. Each day, a fraction of commuters are rationed in their free use of the highway, and the rationing fractions are determined systematically so that everyone is equally rationed in a given period. It is found that Pareto‐improving rationing and pricing scheme might be obtained as a combination of the rationing degree and the toll associated with rationing. Extension to the rationing and pricing scheme with cordon and park‐and‐ride service has been made. Cordon and park‐and‐ride might help in improving the efficiency of rationing and pricing strategy although remains its Pareto‐improving property. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rescuing the captive [mode] user: an alternative approach to transport market segmentation

The prevailing approach to transport market segmentation which identifies two distinct groups, “captive” and “choice” users, has widely been used by professionals and scholars despite the ambiguity associated with these terms. Furthermore, conflicting interpretations from the point of view of decision makers and individuals may result in negative policy implications where the needs of captive users are neglected in favour of attracting new users. This study attempts to address these concerns by proposing an alternative segmentation framework that could be applied to any mode of transport, in any regional context, by users and decision makers alike to better guide the development of transport policies. Using the results of a large-scale transportation survey, a series of clustering techniques are employed to derive this alternative approach for segmenting walkers, cyclists, transit and automobile users. The main factors considered in the final clustering analysis are the level of trip satisfaction and practicality. The analysis yielded four market segments: captivity, utilitarianism, dedication and convenience. Using this theoretical framework to understand the distribution of travellers among market segments is essential in identifying distinct and appropriate policy interventions to improve trip conditions. It is hoped that the segmentation approach and policy framework proposed here will encourage a better balance between pragmatic and idealistic goals in transportation policy.     

轨道交通车站综合开发建筑设计接口要素探讨

城市轨道交通综合开发能够带来显著的经济效益和社会效益已逐渐得到了证明,与此相关的诸多设计问题和接口关系也正在逐步研究解决。通过对轨道交通车站几个综合开发项目设计问题的剖析,提出在轨道交通车站综合开发建筑设计接口要素及关注要点。     

Why do people fare evade? A global shift in fare evasion research

ABSTRACT

Fare evasion is a significant concern for most transit authorities. The traditional approach to fare compliance has focussed on modifying the physical control of ticketing or ticket inspection rates. Yet recently the perspective on fare evasion has begun to shift toward profiling the fare evader or understanding the customer motivations to fare evade. This paper uses a literature review method to document the characteristics of these three perspectives on fare evasion: the conventional transit system perspective, the customer profiling perspective and the customer motivations perspective. We find that the conventional transit system perspective, although straightforward to measure and control, has its limits particularly in “open” transit systems. The customer profiling perspective attempts to identify, based on demographics, which customers are more likely to fare evade. However this perspective has little use beyond profiling and is ethically questionable. The customer motivations perspective provides a richer understanding of how customers define fare evasion and what attitudes, social norms and circumstances motivates them to fare evade. Considering that between 20% and 40% of a city’s residents admit to fare evading at some point, understanding these complex motivations can help improve revenue compliance at a time when most governments heavily subsidise their transit systems.     

Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective

This paper addresses transit technology investment issues under urban population volatility using a real option approach. Two important problems are investigated: which transit technology should be selected and when should it be introduced. A real option model is proposed to incorporate explicitly the effects of transit technology investment on urban spatial structure in terms of households’ residential location choices and housing market. The trigger population thresholds for investing in a transit technology project and for shifting from a transit technology to another are explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of the urban system and transit technology investment are also carried out. It was found that (i) transit technology investment can induce urban sprawl; (ii) ignoring the effects of transit technology investment on urban spatial equilibrium can lead to a late investment; and (iii) there is a significant difference in the trigger population thresholds for transit technology shift estimated by the net present value approach and the real option approach.