Transportation modeling: Lessons from the past and tasks for the future

In spite of the recent progress made in household activity analysis and travel budget studies, urban transportation modeling still remains a “not-too-well developed” research field. There are conflicting theories, analysis units are not uniform, terms are not precisely defined, basic studies of sub-systems involved are not yet completed, and many models lack behavioral background as well as basic attributes such as simplicity, sensitivity, compatibility, transferability and forecasting ability. Gaps in methodology may be partially responsible for this situation. There is an urgent need for simple, yet not primitive, easily applicable urban transportation models which can respond to the technical needs of planners and engineers. Lessons from the past, as well as experiences from other disciplines, suggest that future research should concentrate on: (1) new, “unconventional” approaches based on systematic, basic studies of all sub-systems involved; (2) proper definition and stratification of an analysis unit; (3) revision and unification of definitions, classifications, etc., in order to improve the behavioral background of the models; (4) dynamic rather than static approaches, able to describe feedbacks between transportation and land-use as well as between transportation demand and supply; (5) interrelations between subsequent sub-models, particularly between car availability, trip generation and modal split; (6) developing models which are not only sensitive to transportation policies but also to other local policies (e.g. land use, city development, social, etc.).     

The future of trucking technology in Brazil: results of a technology forecasting model

Abstract

The aim of this article is to identify a set of technological events related to the Brazilian truck fleet that are well placed hierarchically regarding their possibility of occurrence and pertinence for the horizon year of 2021. For this we propose and apply a Technology Forecasting Model for trucks (called TFM/Trucks) based on the Delphi technique, considering 28 technological events associated with six internal forecasting dimensions: safety, efficient use of energy and alternative fuels, materials technology, operational schemes, comfort and environment. The ranking of the technological events, considering hypothetical situations for analysis, indicate significant concern over the safety dimension, with four of the five events (passive safety and active safety) classified among the 10 events with the greatest chance of occurring and pertinence, irrespective of the panelists' degree of specialization. The environmental dimension, with respect to the predominance of electric powered trucks with lower level of atmospheric pollutants, was always in one of the first two positions, regardless of the situation studied. In the final ranking, the five best-classified events represented the dimensions of safety, environment, materials technology and comfort, with environment and passive safety predominating.     

The future for in‐vehicle information systems: The technology and its impacts

In‐vehicle information has an important social role to play in improving the efficiency and safety of travel by all modes. In this review, three generations of system are identified. The first generation consists of simple in‐vehicle units relying heavily on external data. The second generation has more sophisticated in‐vehicle units with colour TFT screens and DVD players for maps and entertainment. The third generation again makes use of external data, using the mobile phone network to download map sections and other data as and when required, thereby obviating the need for beacons and map CDs. For locationing, GPS (and/or Galileo, the European version of GPS) remains the favoured technology. Portable devices offering multi‐modal information could improve inter‐modal transport efficiency.     

Environmental life-cycle assessment of transit buses with alternative fuel technology

The paper presents a life-cycle assessment of costs and greenhouse gas emissions for transit buses deploying a hybrid input-output model to compare ultra-low sulfur diesel to hybrid diesel-electric, compressed natural gas, and hydrogen fuel-cell. We estimate the costs of emissions reductions from alternative fuel vehicles over the life cycle and examine the sensitivity of the results to changes in fuel prices, passenger demand, and to technological characteristics influencing performance and emissions. We find that the alternative fuel buses reduce operating costs and emissions, but increase life-cycle costs. The infrastructure requirement to deploy and operate alternative fuel buses is critical in the comparison of life-cycle emissions. Additionally, efficient bus choice is sensitive to passenger demand, but only moderately sensitive to technological characteristics, and that the relative efficiency of compressed natural gas buses is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than that of the other bus types.     

Making Cycling Irresistible: Lessons from The Netherlands,Denmark and Germany

Abstract

This article shows how the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany have made bicycling a safe, convenient and practical way to get around their cities. The analysis relies on national aggregate data as well as case studies of large and small cities in each country. The key to achieving high levels of cycling appears to be the provision of separate cycling facilities along heavily travelled roads and at intersections, combined with traffic calming of most residential neighbourhoods. Extensive cycling rights of way in the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany are complemented by ample bike parking, full integration with public transport, comprehensive traffic education and training of both cyclists and motorists, and a wide range of promotional events intended to generate enthusiasm and wide public support for cycling. In addition to their many pro‐bike policies and programmes, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany make driving expensive as well as inconvenient in central cities through a host of taxes and restrictions on car ownership, use and parking. Moreover, strict land‐use policies foster compact, mixed‐use developments that generate shorter and thus more bikeable trips. It is the coordinated implementation of this multi‐faceted, mutually reinforcing set of policies that best explains the success of these three countries in promoting cycling. For comparison, the article portrays the marginal status of cycling in the UK and the USA, where only about 1% of trips are by bike.     

The impact of fare and gasoline price changes on monthly transit ridership: Empirical evidence from seven U.S. transit authorities

This paper presents eight empirical models of monthly ridership for seven U.S. Transit Authorities. Within the framework of these models, the impacts upon monthly ridership from changes in the real fare and gasoline prices are examined. Important findings are: (1) the elasticities of monthly transit ridership with respect to the real fare are negative and inelastic, ranging from 0.042 to 0.62; and (2) the elasticities of monthly transit ridership with respect to the real gasoline price are positive and inelastic, ranging from 0.08 to 0.80. Such results have important policy implications for decisions based on the relationships of price, revenue, and ridership; and for assessing the impacts of changing gasoline prices upon urban modal choice.     

The association between transit access and auto ownership: evidence from Guangzhou,China

In many developing countries, massive investment in transit infrastructure is concurrent with the proliferation of automobiles. Planners expect that investment can slow the growth of auto ownership. However, few studies have examined the relationships between transit access and auto ownership in developing countries, whereas research in developed countries offers mixed findings and the outcomes may not be applicable to developing countries. This study employs a random effect ordered probit model on data collected from Guangzhou residents in 2011–2012. We find that transit access is negatively associated with auto ownership, after controlling for demographics and other built environment variables. This result suggests that, although income is the dominant driver for auto ownership in growing developing countries, transit investment is a promising strategy to slow the growth of auto ownership. This study also highlights the importance of addressing spatial dependency in clustered data.     

Choosing the wrong technology: Or how to spend billions and reduce transit use

In spite of a broad consensus among transportation analysts that bus rapid transit, whether operating on exclusive rights-of-way or on uncongested high occupancy vehicle lanes or general purpose limited access facilities, provides higher performance and has significantly lower costs per passenger trip than rail transit in medium and low density cities, nearly all Sunbelt cities are building or planning heavy or light rail systems. This paper reviews previous studies of the cost-effectiveness of heavy and light rail transit with bus-rapid transit and the growing experience with busways and transitways and concludes, once again, that some form of bus rapid transit would be a far more effective way of providing improved transit in these cities than heavy or light rail transit. Not only would bus rapid transit be substantially cheaper, but it would provide a higher quality of service than light or heavy rail transit for virtually all users. Finally, the paper speculates on the reasons for the continued, “blind” commitment to rail transit by policymakers in Sunbelt cities and on the refusal of policymakers in all but a few of these cities to even consider bus rapid transit.     

Coordination of urban transit services: The german model

In Germany, the need for coordination and integration of transport services has been seen as a pre-condition to improving public transportation. A major step in this direction,which attracted world-wide attention, has been the institution of the Transport Federation (Verkehrs verbund). The paper discusses the operation of the Hamburg Transit Federation and considers a number of factors which have created a favorable climate for the development of public transportation in Germany.     

Privatization of urban transit: The Los Angeles jitney experience

This paper reports on a recent attempt to provide private transit in the form of jitney service in downtown Los Angeles. It describes the process undertaken to initiate jitney service and the resultant organization's structure and operation. A survey of jitney passengers provided information on the users and their tripmaking characteristics. A group of loyal jitney riders emerged who patronized the service because of its lower travel times and more personalized atmosphere. This group formed the core of frequent users. The Los Angeles experience is analyzed in terms of the economic feasibility of jitney service and the impact on the financial status of public transit. The public transit agency experienced a slight negative financial impact as a result of the jitney service. Ridership during peak hours declined somewhat but the jitney service was not frequent enough to carry sufficient passengers to allow the transit agency to cut costly peak hour service. This analysis shows that the jitney service ultimately was not an economically successful operation. The factors which would have increased the likelihood of success were increased frequency of service and higher fares, which would have been sustainable if not for unexpected developments in public transit financing. A labor pool willing to work for low wages, high transit use in the central city, relatively high transit fares and the availability of inexpensive vehicles appear to be prerequisites to a successful urban jitney operation.     

Sporting event ridership: The forgotten public transit market

Planned consumer usage of public transit as a means of transportation to and from sporting events with the focal sporting event being professional football is examined. By developing dichotomous segments of riders and nonriders, a demographic profile of planned users and nonusers is presented. A probit analysis of these same data is presented in order to measure the joint contribution of all of the variables on the probability of use. The profiles and analysis are then discussed with regard to their policy relevance for the marketing strategies of public transit authorities. These strategies are aimed at satisfying the consuming public and thus increasing transit ridership.     

The net incidence of transit subsidies: a case study

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the net incidence of government subsidies to a transit system (i.e., the net impact of who pays and who benefits from transit subsidies). Rather than considering the U.S. transit subsidy program in the aggregate, the net incidence of subsidies to a particular transit system — Tidewater Regional Transit (TRT) — is analyzed. The paper concludes that the net incidence of the TRT subsidy program is progressive. Furthermore, the paper provides a methodology that can be used for investigating the net incidence of government subsidies to other transit systems.     

The impact of urban rail transit on commercial property value: New evidence from Wuhan,China

The interaction between rail transit and the urban property market is a vital foundation for planning transit-based policy such as Value Capture and Transit Oriented Development (TOD). Yet only few studies have reported the impact of transit access on commercial property value. This paper presents empirical evidence from Wuhan, China, to enrich the knowledge in the subject area. Spatial autoregressive models were employed to estimate the commercial value capture, based on 676 observations along Wuhan’s metro rail line through the main business districts. Value appreciation was discovered within the 400 m radius of road network distance from Metro stations. The transit access premiums present as two tiers: 16.7% for the 0–100 m core area and approximately 8.0% within the 100–400 m radius. The result demonstrates the potential benefit of adopting value capture and optimising TOD planning to support sustainable urban rail transit investment. Amid rapid urbanisation in China, the evidence reported here could help better inform cities, across the developing world and beyond, of the benefits of adopting rail transit-based policy.     

The federal rail transit policy: Rhetoric or reality?

Almost two years ago the U.S. Department of Transportation issued a formal statement of policy on rail transit. The aim of the policy was to articulate more clearly some of the basic principles and philosophy which would guide Federal participation in urban rail transit investment. The paper examines the principal tenets of the policy and assesses its influence on local rail transit development.     

Telecommuting and environmental policy: Lessons from the ecommute program

In 1999 the National Air Quality and Telecommuting Act established pilot telecommuting programs (ecommute) in five major US metropolitan areas. The major goal of the ecommute program was to examine whether a particular type of economic incentive, tradable emissions credits from telecommuting, represents a viable strategy for reducing vehicle miles traveled and improving air quality. A context is established for evaluating whether the envisioned trading scheme represents a feasible approach to reducing mobile source emissions and promoting telecommuting and a review of the limited experience with mobile source emissions trading programs is provided. Using two-and-one-half years of data collected in the ecommute program, telecommuting frequency, mode choice, and emissions reductions are examined. It is found that from a regulatory perspective, the most substantial drawback to such a program is its questionable environmental integrity, resulting from difficulties in designing sufficiently rigorous quantification protocols to accurately measure the emissions reductions from telecommuting. Such a program is not likely to be cost-effective because the emissions reductions from a single telecommuter are very small.     

Transit subsidies and regulation: Lessons from the Israeli experience

The Israeli transport sector, like those of many other countries is subject to complete government control with regard to fares, entry into the market, terms of operation and subsidies. It is unique, however, in that the fares charged are remarkably low and that the major transit mode, buses, is operated by privately owned companies. This paper explores what makes this low level of fares possible and in doing so examines the principal characteristics of the sector. It shows that this phenomenon cannot be explained by the amount of subsidy given to the operators but must be attributed to other factors, mainly the efficiency in the production of the services which is motivated by the profit maximization objective of the operators. The paper further argues that government policies regarding subsidy and regulation are generally inefficient as they cause misallocation of resources.     

The association between light rail transit and satisfactions with travel and life: evidence from Twin Cities

Rail transit has been touted as a way to enhance livability, quality of life or satisfaction with life (SWL). However, the connections between transit and SWL are mainly conceptual, and little empirical evidence is available in the literature. Using the Hiawatha line in Minneapolis as a case, this study develops structural equations models on a 2011 dataset to explore the impacts of light rail transit (LRT) on SWL. We corroborate that the Hiawatha LRT positively influences SWL through enhanced access to different activities, and through improved transit service, enhanced accessibility, and their impacts on satisfaction with travel. The size of the impacts is marginal.