Time‐of‐day transit pricing: comparative US and international experiences

Experiences with time‐of‐day transit pricing in the U.S. are reviewed in this article and compared to those in other countries. Emphasis is placed on examining ridership, financial and efficiency impacts associated with time‐of‐day pricing, along with highlighting innovative approaches to implementing fare differentials. American time‐of‐day fare structures have been about evenly split between off‐peak discounts, peak‐period surcharges, and programmes involving differential rates of fare increases between peak and off‐peak hours. Although most American operators introduced time‐of‐day differentials to encourage ridership shifts to the off‐peak period, available evidence suggests that they have been only marginally successful in doing so. Off‐peak users were generally found to be far more fare‐sensitive to discounts than peak passengers were to surcharges. Only in a handful of American cities were significant efficiency and financial benefits from time‐of‐day pricing recorded, though in those few places, they tended to be substantial. The most successful American programmes have been those which collect fares on the basis of bus runs and direction of trips (rather than the exact time) and which aggressively market their programmes under the aegis of ‘bargain fares’. It is concluded that useful lessons can be gained by sharing policy insights from experiments with differential transit pricing in both the US and elsewhere.     

Implications of the cost of public funds in public transit subsidization and regulation

This paper identifies some implications of the cost of public funds (CF) in public transit subsidization and regulation. Regulation is considered because a monopolistic operator is assumed. A social welfare maximization model is proposed, subject to individual rationality and vehicle capacity constraints. Optimality conditions are provided and a key formula is derived about CF’s role in balancing the need to cover the fixed operation cost through fares on the operator’s side and the effort to maintain the user surplus on the passengers’ side. Major findings from this model’s formulation include: (1) CF determines the extent to which the passengers’ surplus is compromised in order to cover the fixed part of the operating cost, and (2) subsidy is unjustified when CF exceeds the critical shadow price of the financial constraint. Analytical relations are illustrated through numerical examples.     

Consequences of public ownership and subsidies for mass transit: Evidence from case studies and regression analysis

The trend toward public ownership, public regulation, and public subsidization of the U.S. transit industry has recently come under attack. Many argue that the result has been reduced productivity, increased costs, and very little real benefit. This article examines the impacts of subsidies and public ownership in four large transit systems that cover a range of transit system types and financing arrangements. Evidence from the case studies is compared to the results of both time-series and cross-section regression analysis of operating and financial statistics for large samples of bus systems. Although the case studies and the regressions rely on different datasets and different techniques, they support the same conclusions. Increased subsidies and public ownership have kept down fares and permitted service expansion, but have also encouraged wasteful cost escalation. Thus, transit riders unquestionably have benefited from public takeovers of transit systems and burgeoning subsidies, but not nearly as much as they would have benefited if costs had not skyrocketed at the same time.     

Passengers’ response to transit fare change: an ex post appraisal using smart card data

Fare change is an effective tool for public transit demand management. An automatic fare collection system not only allows the implementation of complex fare policies, but also provides abundant data for impact analysis of fare change. This study proposes an assessment approach for analyzing the influence when substituting a flat-fare policy with a distance-based fare policy, using smart card data. The method can be used to analyze the impact of fare change on demand, riding distances, as well as price elasticity of demand at different time and distance intervals. Taking the fare change of Beijing Metro implemented in 2014 as a case study, we analyze the change of network demand at various levels, riding distances, and demand elasticity of different distances on weekdays and weekends, using the method established and the smart card data a week before and after the fare change. The policy implication of the fare change was also addressed. The results suggest that the fare change had a significant impact on overall demand, but not so much on riding distances. The greatest sensitivity to fare change is shown by weekend passengers, followed by passengers in the evening weekday peak time, while the morning weekday peak time passengers show little sensitivity. A great variety of passengers’ responses to fare change exists at station level because stations serve different types of land usage or generate trips with distinct purposes at different times. Rising fares can greatly increase revenue, and can shift trips to cycling and walking to a certain extent, but not so much as to mitigate overcrowding at morning peak times. The results are compared with those of the ex ante evaluation that used a stated preference survey, and the comparison illustrates that the price elasticity of demand extracted from the stated preference survey significantly exaggerates passengers’ responses to fare increase.     

Reducing the cost of peak hour transit service through contracting out service

Transit service contracting has responded to fiscal and financial woes of public transit agencies as the most uniquely attractive cost‐saving strategy at present. Most transit service contracting, however, has been in the traditional provision of entire fixed route bus service or commuter express bus service, and exclusive demand responsive service for the general public or for special disadvantaged population groups such as the elderly and/or the handicapped. This paper presents a new module in transit service contracting whereby the public and private operators jointly provide the peak service on the same route and at the same time. While the public agency provides the base demand of the service, the private provider provides the excess demand, both following the same schedules and similar service arrangements. In this paper, proposed service arrangements, costing and contracting procedures are discussed. It is also reported that substantial cost savings ranging from 32 to 57% with an average savings of 48% can be achieved if the excess peak hour bus transit service on highly peaked routes in public transit agencies is contracted to competing private operator(s).     

Illuminating the unseen in transit use: A framework for examining the effect of attitudes and perceptions on travel behavior

This study develops the Perception–Intention–Adaptation (PIA) framework to examine the role of attitudes, perceptions, and norms in public transportation ridership. The PIA framework is then applied to understand the relative importance of socio-demographic, built environment, transit service, and socio-psychological factors on public transit use for 279 residents of south Los Angeles, California, a predominately low-income, non-white neighborhood. Confirmatory factor analysis based on 21 survey items resulted in six transit-relevant socio-psychological factors which were used in regression models of two measures of transit use: the probability of using transit at least once in the 7-day observation period, and the mean number of daily transit trips. Our analysis indicates that two PIA constructs, attitudes toward public transportation and concerns about personal safety, significantly improved the model fit and were robust predictors of transit use, independent of built environment factors such as near-residence street network connectivity and transit service level. Results indicate the need for combined policy approaches to increasing transit use that not only enhance transit access, but also target attitudes about transit service and perceptions of crime on transit.     

A test of inter-modal performance measures for transit investment decisions

Choices among alternative transit capital investments are often complex and politically controversial. There is renewed interest in the use of performance indicators to assist in making rational and defensible choices for the investment of public funds. To improve the evaluation of rail and bus performance and provide more useful information for transit investment decision-makers, it is important to use performance indicators that fairly and efficiently compare different transit modes. This paper proposes a set of inter-modal performance indicators in which service input, service output, and service consumption are measured by total cost, revenue capacity miles/hours, and unlinked passenger trips/miles respectively based on economic principles and evaluation objectives. The proposed improvements involve the inclusion of capital as well as operating costs in such comparisons, and the recognition of the widely varying capacities of transit vehicles for seated and standing passengers. Two California cases, the Los Angeles – Long Beach Corridor and the Market/Judah Corridor in San Francisco, are used for testing their usefulness in the evaluation of the efficiency and effectiveness of rail and bus services. The results show substantial differences between performance indicators in current use and those proposed in this study. The enhanced inter-modal performance indicators are more appropriate for comparing the efficiency and effectiveness of different modes or a combination of transit modes at the corridor and system levels where most major investment decisions are made. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Crime in public transit systems: An environmental design perspective

Crime on public transit is receiving increasing attention in the United States. This paper reviews security precautions taken in the planning of bus operations. Also included is a statistical analysis of criminal incidents occurring over a ten-year period on the Southern California Rapid Transit District of Los Angeles. The analysis shows that crime on transit has increased about in proportion to transit ridership, and that it is concentrated in both space and time. Crimes occur mostly on routes which traverse areas having high crime rates in general. Although most transit crimes occur at hours when ridership is high, the rates of occurrence are disproportionately high during the evening hours. Bus drivers experience much higher rates of exposure to criminal incidents than transit passengers. The transportation environment is really a complex of many dissimilar environments, and a variety of strategies is required to meet the needs posed by diverse environments.     

The impact of real-time information on bus ridership in New York City

In the past few years, numerous mobile applications have made it possible for public transit passengers to find routes and/or learn about the expected arrival time of their transit vehicles. Though these services are widely used, their impact on overall transit ridership remains unclear. The objective of this research is to assess the effect of real-time information provided via web-enabled and mobile devices on public transit ridership. An empirical evaluation is conducted for New York City, which is the setting of a natural experiment in which a real-time bus tracking system was gradually launched on a borough-by-borough basis beginning in 2011. Panel regression techniques are used to evaluate bus ridership over a three year period, while controlling for changes in transit service, fares, local socioeconomic conditions, weather, and other factors. A fixed effects model of average weekday unlinked bus trips per month reveals an increase of approximately 118 trips per route per weekday (median increase of 1.7% of weekday route-level ridership) attributable to providing real-time information. Further refinement of the fixed effects model suggests that this ridership increase may only be occurring on larger routes; specifically, the largest quartile of routes defined by revenue miles of service realized approximately 340 additional trips per route per weekday (median increase of 2.3% per route). Although the increase in weekday route-level ridership may appear modest, on aggregate these increases exert a substantial positive effect on farebox revenue. The implications of this research are critical to decision-makers at the country’s transit operators who face pressure to increase ridership under limited budgets, particularly as they seek to prioritize investments in infrastructure, service offerings, and new technologies.     

Transit pricing research

Several decades of research on transit pricing have provided clear insights into how riders respond to price changes in both the transit and automobile sectors. For the most part, riders are insensitive to changes in either fare levels, structures, or forms of payments, though this varies considerably among user groups and operating environments. Since riders are approximately twice as sensitive to changes in travel time as they are to changes in fares, a compelling argument can be made for operating more premium quality transit services at higher prices. Such programs could be supplemented by vouchers and concessionary programs to reduce the burden of higher fares on low-income users. Also, cross-elasticity research suggests that higher automobile prices would have a significantly greater affect on ridership than lower fares. Most research on transit fare structures shows that the common practice of flat fares is highly inequitable, penalizing short-distance and off-peak users. Free fare programs have proven quite costly for each new transit user attracted and have rarely lured motorists to transit. Free fares limited to downtowns have been more successful than systemwide free fare programs. While prepayment schemes have met with success in the U.S. and Europe, honor fares have suffered from excessive revenue losses in at least one case in the U.S. Some of the more noteworthy fare policy successes in North America have been Bridgeport's combined pass-fare program, Allentown's deep discounts, Ottawa's major fare reduction and differentiation, and Columbus's substantial midday discount. As paratransit and other new transit alternatives to conventional bus continue to emerge, new, more differentiated fare practices can be expected in the future.     

Unconventional funding of urban public transport

In the past decade public authorities have developed a wealth of creative funding mechanisms to support transit systems. This paper offers a taxonomy of various unconventional funding mechanisms (i.e. outside the domain of charges for transit passengers or general taxation schemes), based on a review of financial arrangements for public transport. The paper identifies which classes of funding are particularly successful for the financing of transit systems. This cross-sectional analysis uses a type of artificial intelligence method, viz. rough set analysis. It appears that the nature of the funding scheme and the degree of public acceptability are mainly responsible for the success of unconventional funding mechanisms.     

Assessing social equity in distance based transit fares using a model of travel behavior

The goal of this study is to develop and apply a new method for assessing social equity impacts of distance-based public transit fares. Shifting to a distance-based fare structure can disproportionately favor or penalize different subgroups of a population based on variations in settlement patterns, travel needs, and most importantly, transit use. According to federal law, such disparities must be evaluated by the transit agency, but the area-based techniques identified by the Federal Transit Authority for assessing discrimination fail to account for disparities in distances travelled by transit users. This means that transit agencies currently lack guidelines for assessing the social equity impacts of replacing flat fare with distance-based fare structures. Our solution is to incorporate a joint ordinal/continuous model of trip generation and distance travelled into a GIS Decision Support System. The system enables a transit planner to visualize and compare distance travelled and transit-cost maps for different population profiles and fare structures. We apply the method to a case study in the Wasatch Front, Utah, where the Utah Transit Authority is exploring a switch to a distance-based fare structure. The analysis reveals that overall distance-based fares benefit low-income, elderly, and non-white populations. However, the effect is geographically uneven, and may be negative for members of these groups living on the urban fringe.     

Bus rapid transit systems: a comparative assessment

There is renewed interest in many developing and developed countries in finding ways of providing efficient and effective public transport that does not come with a high price tag. An increasing number of nations are asking the question—what type of public transport system can deliver value for money? Although light rail has often been promoted as a popular ‘solution’, there has been progressively emerging an attractive alternative in the form of bus rapid transit (BRT). BRT is a system operating on its own right-of-way either as a full BRT with high quality interchanges, integrated smart card fare payment and efficient throughput of passengers alighting and boarding at bus stations; or as a system with some amount of dedicated right-of-way (light BRT) and lesser integration of service and fares. The notion that buses essentially operate in a constrained service environment under a mixed traffic regime and that trains have privileged dedicated right-of-way, is no longer the only sustainable and valid proposition. This paper evaluates the status of 44 BRT systems in operation throughout the world as a way of identifying the capability of moving substantial numbers of passengers, using infrastructure whose costs overall and per kilometre are extremely attractive. When ongoing lifecycle costs (operations and maintenance) are taken into account, the costs of providing high capacity integrated BRT systems are an attractive option in many contexts.     

Nature and/or nurture? Analyzing the determinants of transit ridership across US urbanized areas

Public subsidy of transit services has increased dramatically in recent years, with little effect on overall ridership. Quite obviously, a clear understanding of the factors influencing transit ridership is central to decisions on investments in and the pricing and deployment of transit services. Yet the literature about the causes of transit use is quite spotty; most previous aggregate analyses of transit ridership have examined just one or a few systems, have not included many of the external, control variables thought to influence transit use, and have not addressed the simultaneous relationship between transit service supply and consumption. This study addresses each of these shortcomings by (1) conducting a cross-sectional analysis of transit use in 265 US urbanized areas, (2) testing dozens of variables measuring regional geography, metropolitan economy, population characteristics, auto/highway system characteristics, and transit system characteristics, and (3) constructing two-stage simultaneous equation regression models to account for simultaneity between transit service supply and consumption. We find that most of the variation in transit ridership among urbanized areas – in both absolute and relative terms – can be explained by factors outside of the control of public transit systems: (1) regional geography (specifically, area of urbanization, population, population density, and regional location in the US), (2) metropolitan economy (specifically, personal/household income), (3) population characteristics (specifically, the percent college students, recent immigrants, and Democratic voters in the population), and (4) auto/highway system characteristics (specifically, the percent carless households and non-transit/non-SOV trips, including commuting via carpools, walking, biking, etc.). While these external factors clearly go a long way toward determining the overall level of transit use in an urbanized area, we find that transit policies do make a significant difference. The observed range in both fares and service frequency in our sample could account for at least a doubling (or halving) of transit use in a given urbanized area. Controlling for the fact that public transit use is strongly correlated with urbanized area size, about 26% of the observed variance in per capita transit patronage across US urbanized areas is explained in the models presented here by service frequency and fare levels. The observed influence of these two factors is consistent with both the literature and intuition: frequent service draws passengers, and high fares drive them away.     

An analysis of public bus transit performance in Indian cities

Maintaining and enhancing public transit service in Indian cities is important, to meet rapidly growing mass mobility needs, and curb personal motor vehicle activity and its impacts at low cost. Indian cities rely predominantly on buses for public transport, and are likely to continue to do so for years. However, the public bus transit service is inadequate, and unaffordable for the urban poor. The paper explores the factors that contribute to and affect efforts to improve this situation, based on an analysis of the financial and operational performance of the public bus transit service in the four metropolitan centres and four secondary cities during the 1990s. Overall, there were persistent losses, owing to increasing input costs and declining productivity. The losses occurred despite rapidly increasing fares, and ridership declined. The situation, and the ability to address it, is worse in the secondary cities than the metropolitan centres. We suggest a disaggregated approach based on the needs and motivations of different groups in relation to public transit, along with improved operating conditions and policies to internalize costs of personal motor vehicle use, to address the challenge of providing financially viable and affordable public bus transit service.     

Normative framework for transit fare policy-making

This paper presents a normative model for transit fare policy-making. Key elements of the model are: establishing service policy and ridership objectives, developing an overall financial philosophy, making fare level decisions, making structural pricing decisions, and designing implementation strategies. In general, the overall objectives of a transit agency regarding service quality and ridership levels should be the main impetus behind any fare program. Identifying where transit lies on the continuum of being a public versus a private service should frame the overall financial philosophy of a transit agency. From this the specification of farebox recovery targets should follow. Deciding upon structural aspects of a fare program perhaps represents one of the most important and most frequently overlooked steps of the process. Specific cost-based and value-based fare strategies should be considered. Implementation involves making the adopted fare strategy work. Key implementation issues are: fare payment and collection techniques, necessary service changes, marketing and promotional programs, and consensus-building. The model presented calls for feedback among these steps to allow an iterative, yet comprehensive, approach to fare policy-setting.     

Transit user perceptions of driverless buses

This paper reports the results of a stated preference survey of regular transit users’ willingness to ride and concerns about driverless buses in the Philadelphia region. As automated technologies advance, driverless buses may offer significant efficiency, safety, and operational improvements over traditional bus services. However, unfamiliarity with automated vehicle technology may challenge its acceptance among the general public and slow the adoption of new technologies. Using a mixed logit modeling framework, this research examines which types of transit users are most willing to ride in driverless buses and whether having a transit employee on board to monitor the vehicle operations and/or provide customer service matters. Of the 891 surveyed members of University of Pennsylvania’s transit pass benefit program, two-thirds express a willingness to ride in a driverless bus when a transit employee is on board to monitor vehicle operations and provide customer service. By contrast, only 13% would agree to ride a bus without an employee on board. Males and those in younger age groups (18–34) are more willing to ride in driverless buses than females and those in older age groups. Findings suggest that, so long as a transit employee is onboard, many transit passengers will willingly board early generation automated buses. An abrupt shift to buses without employees on board, by contrast, will likely alienate many transit users.

     

Bus crime in Los Angeles: I—Measuring the incidence

Based on a large study of bus crime in Los Angeles, this article discusses a method for estimating the number of transit crimes and examines sources of information loss within existing transit crime statistics. Using data from a victimization survey of 1088 households in west central Los Angeles, it was estimated that there were about 23,000 bus and bus-related crimes occurring in the survey area during 1983. This is 25 to 30 times the number reported by the Southern California Rapid Transit District for their entire service area. Comparisons with the 1980 census were made to evaluate bias in the sample, and it was found that the sample has probably underestimated the total amount of bus crime in the survey area. Results consistent with Los Angeles Police Department records was shown. Bus and bus-related crimes account for 20 to 30% of all crimes experienced by the central city population. Major sources of information loss are (a) crimes occurring outside buses, but during a trip; (b) non-reporting of crimes by victims; (c) non-response by police even when crimes were reported; and (d) statistical “loss” from reports taken by local police; local police do not categorize crimes by transit use. It was recommended that transit agencies cross-classify existing police reports for more accurate information. Local police should be encouraged to systematically collect data on transit behavior for both victims and assailants.     

Polycentricity and transit service

This paper focuses on the two related issues of employment distribution and access to transit services. Using the 2001 census tract level economic activities and transit routes within the county, a number of analyses were performed to determine the location of major employment centers in Los Angeles County and how these localities may be understood within the context of a transit service operation in a polycentric metropolitan area. The identified economic subcenters contain one-third of the county employment and its firms, collectively. While these economic nodes are networked by the existing bus routes, the connection between employees and their place of work appears to be inadequate. This has created a less than optimal condition in many sections of the metropolitan area. This paper suggests methodologies for encountering this shortcoming.     

The taxi's role in urban America: Today and tomorrow

Changes in the economic and demographic characteristics of US cities over the past two decades have modified but have not diminished the need for extensive public transportation service in these areas. The vast bulk of trips to work, to shop, and for most other purposes within large American cities are still made by residents of those cities, a significant portion of whom do not own or have access to an automobile. Expensive and far-ranging programs to enhance surburban commutation to the central city by means of rail rapid transit do little to meet the needs of those who still must rely upon local, extensive service within the city.One form of public transport — the taxicab — offers the quality and flexibility of service which even those of limited means find well worth the price. As a consequence, fleet taxicabs serve almost 40 percent more passengers than all US rapid transit systems and about 60 percent as many passengers as all bus transit systems. Removal of archaic and restrictive regulations governing the number and use of taxicabs in major US cities would promote more effective and widespread use of this, the only form of public transit that still operates — at a profit — without public subsidy.