飓风极值波浪数值模拟

飓风浪对于船舶航行、海洋和海岸结构物的安全意义重大,分析工程区设计波要素需要考虑飓风引起的大浪。采用YoungSobey风场模型建立飓风风场,以飓风风场作为第三代波浪模型MIKE 21 SW的驱动场,对发生在大西洋的飓风IRENE引起的飓风浪进行模拟,并将模拟结果与实测浮标数据进行对比。对比结果显示,MIKE 21 SW可以很好地模拟飓风引起的极值波浪要素。     

浅水风浪要素推算公式比较

对于缺乏长期波浪观测资料的新建港址,利用风况观测资料推算风成浪,是确定设计波浪的简便方法。选取宁波-舟山海域两处工程实例,分别运用国内主要浅水风浪推算公式——规范法与莆田法,对海湾水域与岛屿环抱水域两种典型海域进行不同重现期设计浅水风浪要素的推算。通过对风区长度、风区平均水深以及设计风速等主要变量的工况组合,归纳两种方法的计算结果差异性与适用性,结论可供工程设计参考。     

Assessment of wind quality for oceanographic modelling in semi-enclosed basins

The quality of surface winds derived from four meteorological models is assessed in the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea over a 2-month period: a global hydrostatic model ECMWF T511 (40 km resolution), a hydrostatic limited area model LAMBO (20 km), and two non-hydrostatic limited area models: LAMI (7 km) and COAMPS™ (4 km). These wind models are used to drive a 2 km resolution wave model (SWAN) of the Adriatic, and wind and wave results are compared with observations at the ISMAR oceanographic tower off Venice. Waves are also compared at buoy locations near Ancona and Ortona. Consistently with earlier studies, the ECMWF fields underestimate the wind magnitude and do not reproduce the known spatial structure of strong wind events. The results show that the higher-resolution, limited area models LAMI and COAMPS exhibit better amplitude response than the coarser ECMWF: there is a 3- to 4-fold reduction of the wind underestimation at the platform (from 36% to 8–11%). The wave response is also improved with LAMI and COAMPS: there is a 2-fold reduction in the underestimation of wave heights at the platform. These non-hydrostatic models also produce wind fields with more realistic small-scale, spatial structure during strong wind events. The temporal correlation between observed and modelled wind, however, is highest with the global ECMWF model due to the fact that large-scale features can be predicted deterministically, whereas small-scale features can only be predicted stochastically. Models with less small-scale structure have better correlation because they have less “noise.” This explanation is supported by increased correlation between modelled and observed waves, the waves representing a smoothing of the wind over fetch and duration. Although there is room for improvement, the high-resolution, non-hydrostatic models (LAMI and COAMPS) offer significant advantages for driving oceanographic simulations in semi-enclosed basins such as the Adriatic Sea.     

潜堤掩护水域波浪计算方法

采用波浪断面物理模型试验和数学模型耦合的方法,研究了抛石潜堤后方掩护水域的波浪计算方法。潜堤后方掩护水域波高由潜堤越浪后的再生波、潜堤间口门绕射波和小风区浪组成,其主要影响因素有潜堤结构形式、入射波浪要素、风区长度等。采用耦合模型,根据物理模型试验的结果,验证数模计算成果,考虑了越浪波高传递的沿程衰减,波浪相互作用时的能量损耗等因素,通过调整波浪破碎指标和波浪能量耗散参数,直接计算堤前设计波浪要素,计算结果更符合实际,为工程设计提供科学依据。     

Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders

This article examines the evacuation behavior of residents in two South Carolina communities, Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach, during the 1996 hurricane season. Two hurricanes that approached South Carolina but hit in North Carolina allowed us to study the impact of repeated “false alarms”; (evacuations ordered based on expectations of a hurricane landfall that proved to be wrong). Differences in evacuation behavior, specific information and concerns prompting evacuation, and the reliability of information sources between hurricane events are examined to determine the impact of false alarms on the credibility of warning systems. Data were derived from a face‐to‐face survey of residents 2 weeks after Hurricane Fran in September 1996. We found that the role of official advisories was more limited than reported in previous research as people sought information on more diverse sets of concerns in their decision making. Reliance on the media and the Weather Channel, in particular, for storm characteristics and advisories was an important factor in evacuation decision making during both hurricane events. The perceived lack of reliability of gubernatorial warnings coupled with dependence on the media suggests that residents find other sources of information more personally relevant. Thus, while residents do not find that officials are “crying wolf,”; they are searching elsewhere for information to assess their own risk—what does it mean to me if there is a wolf? This increased attention toward individual differences in perceived threat may become more pronounced in future evacuations from hurricanes.     

改进的海浪波包谱

结合实测波浪资料对描述波浪群性的主要特征参数进行了统计和相关性分析,结果表明波群的高度特征和长度特征之间相关性较弱。在此基础上根据渤海和珠江口两地的波浪观测数据,采用合理的无因次化方式,拟合得到一个适于风浪的波包谱经验公式。该公式同时考虑了群高与群长两方面的因素,只要给出波要素和波群的特征参数便可确定波包谱形,便于应用,根据对实测资料波群参数的分析结果,与俞聿修等人先前建议的波包谱公式相比,该公式中给出了更合理的参数取值原则。     

Evaluation of two atmospheric models for wind–wave modelling in the NW Mediterranean

The NW Mediterranean experiences, as illustrated by the last decade, strong and rapidly varying storms with severe waves and winds. This has motivated a continuous validation of models and the efforts to improve wave and wind predictions. In this paper we use two atmospherics models, MASS (from SMC-Meteorological Office of Catalunya) and ARPEGE (from Météo-France), to force two third generation wave models: WAM and SWAN. The evaluation and comparison has been carried out for two severe storms registered in November 2001 and March–April 2002.The ARPEGE and MASS models predicted higher 10 m wind speeds than coastal meteorological stations, a fact attributed to local land influences. Regarding the 10 m wind direction, models do not present large differences, although considerable deviations from recorded data were found during some dates. ARPEGE presents less scatter and lower errors than MASS when compared with QuikSCAT data.The 10m wind fields from both atmospheric models were used to force the two selected wave models and analyse the errors and sensitivities when predicting severe wave storms. The wave model simulations show some interesting results; during the storm, the spatial wave pattern using ARPEGE showed a higher maximum, although the values of significant wave height at the buoys were lower than the ones forced by MASS (with both WAM and SWAN). The SWAN simulations show a better agreement in predicting the growing and waning of the storm peaks. The prediction of mean period was improved when using the ARPEGE wind field. However the underestimation by SWAN due to the large energy at high frequencies was evident. Validation of spectral shape predictions showed that it still has considerable error when predicting the full frequency spectra. The storms showed bimodal spectral features which were not always reproduced by wave models and are likely to be responsible for part of the discrepancies.     

移动脉动源的传播特性在池壁效应判别中的应用研究

受水池宽度的限制,波浪中航行的船模可能受到池壁效应的干扰,这种干扰作用的实质是船体的辐射—绕射波经池壁反射后作用于船模的结果。文章以点源为研究对象,采用等相分析法获得了Bessho型移动脉动源格林函数的远场传播波系。分析表明:移动脉动源的传播波模态与斯特劳哈尔数τ的大小密切相关,当τ0.25时远场波系中包含环形波、内侧楔形波及外侧楔形波三个模态;当τ0.25时远场波系中包含环形—扇形波、扇形波及内侧楔形波三个模态。进一步分析可知,当τ0.272时,环形波或环形-扇形波将出现在船模前方,此时的池壁效应不可避免;当τ0.272且船艏点源兴波的半楔角大于几何临界半楔角时,此时将存在池壁效应的干扰。文中在单船试验池壁效应判别分析的基础上,计及船模辐射—绕射波的池壁反射作用对自身和另一船模的干扰,依据船型要素、两船相对位置和池壁几何参数,提出了采用四个几何临界半楔角的最小值判别波浪中并行航行两船模池壁效应的数值方法。     

海上风电场风机桩基局部冲刷计算

建设海上风电场时,风机所处的海洋环境十分复杂,在风、浪、流等气象水文要素的影响下,风机桩基周围会出现冲刷坑,进而影响风机基础的稳定。因此,风机桩基的局部冲刷深度是工程设计的重要参数。采用埕岛油田海洋平台桩基局部冲刷现场观测资料,对国内常用的2个计算桩基局部冲刷深度的经验公式(韩海骞公式和王汝凯公式)进行验证,运用波流合成速度代替纯潮流速度。结果表明该海域波浪对泥沙的作用不可忽略。韩海骞公式重新计算的结果与实测值吻合良好。     

潮间带风电场水动力数值模拟

为研究江苏省某地滨海潮间带风电场工程对所在海域波浪、潮流的影响,通过ADCIRC潮流模型和SWAN风浪模型模拟风、浪、流的耦合作用,建立滨海潮间带风电场的水动力数学模型,计算结果表明:该数学模型能较客观地反映当地水流和波浪场的基本情况,对在该区域建设滨海风电场具有重要的参考意义。     

畸形波特性研究

基于不同的实测资料,对畸形波的定义做了进一步的深化,解决了一些畸形波定义中困惑的问题。通过对北海实测波形资料的参数化,对畸形波的波形特征做了相应的分析和研究,并分析了畸形波对建筑物的作用,认识了畸形波在对建筑物作用时的破坏性所在,通过对南印度洋强风资料的分析,得出了适宜的风速有助于促进畸形波形成的结论。     

引江济淮工程巢湖水域风浪特性研究

根据巢湖湖区附近波浪及气象资料,采用经现场观测资料验证的考虑风能输入和底摩阻影响的非线性抛物型缓坡方程波浪数学模型对巢湖水域风浪特性进行研究,所建立的数学模型可较好地预测巢湖水域的波浪场及波高分布情况。结合湖区地形及平面布置,进行全方向的波浪数值模拟计算,得出湖区波浪场分布情况,为相关工程设计提供参考。     

SWAN风浪成长模型在近海设计波浪要素推算中的应用

根据黄、渤海区20 a中最大风速对应的风场过程,利用SWAN模型模拟风浪的成长过程,利用针对模型推算所得的烟台芝罘岛附近海域的系列波浪要素,进行P-III型曲线的拟合分析,得到不同重现期条件下的特征波浪要素。模型计算过程中,只需对美国NCEP和欧洲ECMWF风场后报资料进行简单校正,据此通过SWAN模型推算的特征波浪要素值就可与根据芝罘岛海洋环境监测站现场观测资料推断的波浪要素值基本一致。     

海上长球首尾双体风电维护船阻力和耐波性能研究

近年来,海上风电场迅猛发展,风电维护船成为迫切需求。借鉴小水线面双体船优良的阻力性能和穿浪双体船优秀的耐波性能,根据中国海上风电场维护船航行的环境和使用特点,选用阻力和耐波性能优良的长球首尾双体船型作为风电场维护船型。在此基础上采用CFD数值仿真计算阻力性能,运用NAPA软件计算耐波性能。从而得到不同条件下较优良的船型,为海上风电维护船的设计提供一定的参考和借鉴。     

台风"莎莉嘉"过境期间某泻湖内波浪特征分析

通过在某岛礁泻湖内布置ADCP波流测量仪器,采集到2016年21号台风"莎莉嘉"期间的波浪数据.结合布置在泻湖口处风速仪的风实测数据,本文对该时间段内的波浪特征进行分析.由波浪统计数据分析发现有义波高随时间的变化趋势与风速的变化趋势高度重合;谱峰周期的变化则要晚于风速的变化;谱峰方向在台风起主导作用期间与风向高度一致.通过分析多个无因次参数以及对风浪和涌浪进行分离发现测点与台风中心距离开始变大的这个时间点有着重要的意义.在该时间点,波长开始变长,波浪由无限水深波浪转变为有限水深波浪.一些波浪特征值,比如谱峰周期、a/L,也发生比较大的变化.此后在七级风半径不再覆盖测点时,该处波浪由风浪转变为涌浪.对波浪谱进行分析发现,在台风主导期间,其谱为单峰谱,其余时间则为双峰谱.     

风浪谱模型在滇池码头工程中的应用

针对滇池的波浪特性,选用基于波能平衡方程与波作用守恒方程的风浪谱模型建立滇池波浪数学模型。数学模型计算结果与经验公式结果相比较,两者吻合较好,验证了计算模型的可靠性,并进一步计算了设计风场下滇池拟建码头工程区域工程前后的风浪场情况,为滇池古渡码头工程设计方案的优选提供依据。研究结果表明:工程受偏N方向风浪影响较大,而受常浪向WSW影响较小;浮桥为"L"型双梳式栈桥平面布置形式的风浪挡浪效果较好,优于"T"字型双梳式栈桥平布置形式。     

Ultimate load analysis of a 10 MW offshore monopile wind turbine incorporating fully nonlinear irregular wave kinematics

Loads from storm waves can in some cases be dimensioning for offshore wind turbine substructures. Accurate determination of nonlinear wave loads is therefore important for a safe, yet economic design. In this paper, the fully nonlinear waves, realized by a fully nonlinear potential wave solver OceanWave3D, are incorporated into coupled aero-servo-hydro-elastic simulations for a reduced set of wave-sensitive design load cases, in comparison with the widely used linear and constrained waves. The coupled aero-elastic simulations are performed for the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine on a large monopile at 33 m water depth using the aero-elastic code HAWC2. Effect of the wave nonlinearity is investigated in terms of the ultimate sectional moments at tower bottom and monopile mudline. Higher ultimate moments, 5% at tower bottom and 13% at monopile mudline as maximum, are predicated when the nonlinear waves are used. It could be explained by the fact that the extreme nonlinear waves, that are close to the breaking limit, can induce resonant ringing-type responses, and hereby dominate the ultimate load responses. However, the constrained wave approach shows marginal difference compared to the standard linear wave approach. It can be concluded at least for the present configuration that the industry standard approaches (linear and constrained wave approach) underestimate the ultimate load responses on offshore wind turbines in severe sea states.     

Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy inference system and the parametric models along the south coasts of the Black Sea

Forecasting of sea-state characteristics has a great importance in coastal and ocean engineering studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate performances of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and several parametric methods in the Black Sea. For this purpose, different fuzzy models with different input combinations were developed for two different wind data sources (TSMS and ECMWF) at two offshore buoy stations. It also aimed to apply several approaches to event-based data sets for wave predictions. Generally, in literature the tendency is to use time series data for wave predictions. In this kind of prediction approach, lagged time series data are taken as inputs and current or future variables are taken as output. In this study, event-based data for each independent storm were extracted from time series data. Simultaneous or concurrent data of wind speed, blowing duration, fetch length and wave characteristics were detected for each single storm. These event data were then used to set up models. The hindcast results were validated with significant wave height and mean wave period data recorded in Hopa and Sinop buoy stations. The performance of developed fuzzy models were also compared with that of four different parametric methods (Wilson, SPM, Jonswap, and CEM methods) applied for two wind data sources at both buoy stations. Finally, it was determined that in the prediction of both wave parameters (H _s and T _z) the ANFIS models (R = 0.66, squared correlation coefficient, and MAE = 0.37 m, mean absolute error, for the best model in prediction of H _s) were more accurate than the parametric methods (R = 0.63 and MAE = 0.75 m for the best model in prediction of H _s).     

基于WRF-SWAN模式的韦帕台风波浪场模拟

为获取更为准确的台风过程波浪模拟结果,将中尺度大气模式WRFD海面以上10 m处风速资料作为驱动风场提供给第三代海浪模式SWAN进行波浪计算,模拟了0713号"韦帕"台风的波浪场过程。模拟和实测资料比较结果表明WRF模式能较好地模拟韦帕台风过程,给SWAN模型提供高精度风场资料,WRF-SWAN模式能够较好模拟韦帕台风过程中海浪的演化和传播。     

Wave data assimilation with the Kalman filter

A new data assimilation method for ocean waves is presented, based on an efficient low-rank approximation to the Kalman filter. Both the extended Kalman filter and a truncated second-order filter are implemented. In order to explicitly estimate past wind corrections based on current wave measurements, the filter is extended to a fixed-lag Kalman smoother for the wind fields. The filter is tested in a number of synthetic experiments with simple geometries. Propagation experiments with errors in the boundary condition showed that the KF was able to accurately propagate forecast errors, resulting in spatially varying error correlations, which would be impossible to model with time-independent assimilation methods like OI. An explicit comparison with an OI assimilation scheme showed that the KF also is superior in estimating the sea state at some distance from the observations. In experiments with errors in the driving wind, the modeled error estimates were also in agreement with the actual forecast errors. The bias in the state estimate, which is introduced through the nonlinear dependence of the waves on the driving wind field, was largely removed by the second-order filter, even without actually assimilating data. Assimilation of wave observations resulted in an improved wave analysis and in correction of past wind fields. The accuracy of this wind correction depends strongly on the actual place and time of wave generation, which is correctly modeled by the error estimate supplied by the Kalman filter. In summary, the KF approach is shown to be a reliable assimilation scheme in these simple experiments, and has the advantage over other assimilation methods that it supplies explicit dynamical error estimates.