Excess commuting and modal choice

This paper reports results from research conducted to analyse the extent of excess commuting in Dublin, Ireland. The research differs from similar studies on excess commuting in two ways. First, a disaggregate modal choice analysis of excess commuting is undertaken for two time periods – 1991 and 2001. Second, sensitivity analysis is undertaken to explore the impact of changes in the density of the transport network for users of public and private transport. The results suggest that excess commuting is considerably greater for users of private transport implying the greater inefficiency of commuting associated with that mode. By way of contrast, capacity utilisation measures suggest the opposite indicating the difficulty of using these measures for policy-making. The results suggest also that the greater inter-mixing of jobs–housing functions has facilitated reductions in actual commuting costs as well as increasing the range of available trip possibilities over the study period. In terms of the sensitivity analysis, the results suggest that public transport users could achieve dramatic savings on their commute if the density of that network was increased considerably.     

Modeling commuting mode choice jointly with work start time and work duration

This paper presents a joint trivariate discrete-continuous-continuous model for commuters’ mode choice, work start time and work duration. The model is designed to capture correlations among random components influencing these decisions. For empirical investigation, the model is estimated using a data set collected in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in 2001. Considering the fact that work duration involves medium- to long-term decision making compared to short-term activity scheduling decisions, work duration is considered endogenous to work start time decisions. The empirical model reveals many behavioral details of commuters’ mode choice, work start time and duration decisions. The primary objective of the model is to predict workers’ work schedules according to mode choice, which is considered a skeletal activity schedule in activity-based travel demand models. However, the empirical model reveals many behavioral details of workers’ mode choices and work scheduling. Independent application of the model for travel demand management policy evaluations is also promising, as it provides better value in terms of travel time estimates.     

An investigation of commuting trip timing and mode choice in the Greater Toronto Area: Application of a joint discrete-continuous model

The trip timing and mode choice are two critical decisions of individual commuters mostly define peak period traffic congestion in urban areas. Due to the increasing evidence in many North American cities that the duration of the congested peak travelling periods is expanding (peak spreading), it becomes necessary and natural to investigate these two commuting decisions jointly. In addition to being considered jointly with mode choice decisions, trip timing must also be modelled as a continuous variable in order to precisely capture peak spreading trends in a policy sensitive transportation demand model. However, in the literature to date, these two fundamental decisions have largely been treated separately or in some cases as integrated discrete decisions for joint investigation. In this paper, a discrete-continuous econometric model is used to investigate the joint decisions of trip timing and mode choice for commuting trips in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The joint model, with a multinomial logit model for mode choice and a continuous time hazard model for trip timing, allows for unrestricted correlation between the unobserved factors influencing these two decisions. Models are estimated by occupation groups using 2001 travel survey data for the GTA. Across all occupation groups, strong correlations between unobserved factors influencing mode choice and trip timing are found. Furthermore, the estimated model proves that it sufficiently captures the peak spreading phenomenon and is capable of being applied within the activity-based travel demand model framework.     

The effect of socio-economic factors on the value of time in commuting to work

It is important to specify accurately the dollar value assigned to time savings, since up to eighty percent of the benefits estimated to accrue from improvements in transportation systems are associated with savings in travel time. In this paper the economic theory of consumer choice is utilized to structure a model that is used to estimate how Value of Time (VOT) measures vary with community-related variables.Parameters for this theoretical model are empirically estimated using data from transportation surveys conducted in Ithaca and Syracuse, New York and Amherst, Massachusetts. The results confirm the validity of the theoretical model and suggest that leisure time, travel cost, and household income level, as well as community population, are important determinants of the marginal value of time. These models are particularly suited for transferring data results obtained in one community to another, thereby saving survey costs, since the resulting VOT estimates are based solely on underlying socio-economic variables and community characteristics that are known for most localities. The methodology is also useful for estimating different VDT's for particular population subgroups, like the elderly, which may be the focus of a particular transportation project.     

Modelling commuting mode choice with explicit consideration of carpool in the choice set formation

This article investigates the carpool mode choice option in the context of overall commuting mode choice preferences. The article uses a hybrid discrete choice modelling technique to jointly model the consideration of carpooling in the choice set formation as well as commuting mode choice together with the response bias corrections through the accommodation of measurement equations. A cross-nested error structure for the econometric formulation is used to capture correlations among various commuting modes and carpool consideration in the choice set. Empirical models are estimated using a data set collected through a week-long commuter survey in Edmonton, Alberta. The empirical model reveals many behavioural details of commuting mode choice and carpooling. Interestingly, it reveals that interactions between various Travel Demand Management (TDM) tools with the carpooling option can be different at different level of decision making (choice set formation level and final choice making level).     

Modeling co-dependent choice of workplace,residence and commuting mode using an error component mixed logit model

Transportation - This paper develops an error component mixed logit model to analyze the multi-dimensional residential, work and transportation mode choice. It expanse previous studies based on...     

Route choice of cyclists in Zurich

This paper presents the first route choice model for bicyclists estimated from a large sample of GPS observations and overcomes the limitations inherent in the generally employed stated preference approach. It employs an improved mode detection algorithm for GPS post-processing to determine trips made by bicycle, which are map matched to an enriched street network. The alternatives are generated as a random sample from an exhaustive, but constrained search. Accounting for the similarity between the alternatives with the path-size factor the MNL estimates show that the elasticity with regards to trip length is nearly four times larger than that with respect to the share of bike paths. The elasticity with respect to the product of length and maximum gradient of the route is small. No other variable describing the routes had an impact. The heterogeneity of the cyclists is captured through interaction terms formulated on their average behaviour.     

Willingness to accept commuting time within the household: stated preference evidence

In this study, stated preference data is used to derive estimated values of commuting time (VOCT). Both spouses in two-earner households are individually making trade-offs between commuting time and wage; both with regard to their own commuting time and wage only, as well as when both their own commuting time and wage and their spouse’s commuting time and wage are simultaneously changed. Thus, we are able to compare how male spouses and female spouses value each other’s commuting time. When only ones own commuting time and wage are attributes, the empirical results show that the estimated VOCT is plausible with a tendency towards high values compared to other studies, and that VOCT does not differ significantly between men and women. When decisions affecting commuting time and wage of both spouses are analyzed, both spouses value the commuting time of the wife highest. Further analysis show that this result is driven by households where the man has the highest income. If VOCT were to be gender specific in policy implications, the value might be higher for women than for men in two-earner households.     

A utility-based bicycle speed choice model with time and energy factors

Transportation - This paper presents a utility-based behavioral model of bicycle speed choice. A mathematical framework is developed with travel time, energy expenditure, and control factors....     

Neighborhoods,cars, and commuting in New York City: A discrete choice approach

Cities around the world are trying out a multitude of transportation policy and investment alternatives with the aim of reducing car-induced externalities. However, without a solid understanding of how people make their transportation and residential location choices, it is hard to tell which of these policies and investments are really doing the job and which are wasting precious city resources. The focus of this paper is the determinants of car ownership and car use for commuting. Using survey data from 1997 to 1998 collected in New York City, this paper uses discrete choice econometrics to estimate a model of the choices of car ownership and commute mode while also modeling the related choice of residential location.The main story told by this analysis is that New Yorkers are more sensitive to changes in travel time than they are to changes in travel cost. The model predicts that the most effective ways to reduce both auto ownership and car commuting involve changing the relative travel times for cars and transit, making transit trips faster by increasing both the frequency and the speed of service and making auto trips slower – perhaps simply by allowing traffic congestion. Population density also appears to have a substantial effect on car ownership in New York.     

Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK

This paper has two objectives: to examine the volatility of travel behaviour over time and consider the factors explaining this volatility; and to estimate the factors determining car ownership and commuting by car. The analysis is based on observations of individuals and households over a period of up to 11 years obtained from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Changes in car ownership, commuting mode and commuting time over a period of years for the same individuals/households are examined to determine the extent to which these change from year-to-year. This volatility of individual behaviour is a measure of the ease of change or adaptation. If behaviour changes easily, policy measures are likely to have a stronger and more rapid effect than if there is more resistance to change. The changes are “explained” in terms of factors such as moving house, changing job and employment status. The factors determining car ownership and commuting by car are analysed using a dynamic panel-data models.     

An analysis of instability in a departure time choice problem

This study performs a theoretical analysis of instability in a departure time choice problem. Stability of equilibrium is an important factor for reliability of travel time. If equilibrium is not stable, travel time changes over a period of days even if demand and network performance are stable. This study examines the stability of a dynamic user equilibrium problem by using the departure time choice problem. The mechanism of day‐to‐day changes in a traveller's behaviour is determined first, and then a function that indicates dissimilarity to equilibrium is defined. The day‐to‐day changes in the dissimilarity function are mathematically examined using approximations. A numerical test is also carried out to verify the result. Results of these analyses show that there can be a case where the system does not converge to equilibrium. It is also indicated that this instability should be caused by the non‐monotonicity of the schedule cost.     

An economic model for sustainable harbor trucking

Truck emissions at a port may have a severe impact on neighbors, resulting in a politically sensitive sustainability issue for the port management. Strict emissions controls may adversely affect throughput whereas the lack of strict controls will be unacceptable to local citizens and environmental interests. We develop an economic model minimizing cost of truck emissions control and collateral production changes and apply it to decision making for a port seeking to meet a throughput goal while also attempting to satisfy an emissions constraint. Outcomes predicted by the model allow informed decisions about the impact of controls.     

Route choice preferences: insights from Portuguese freight forwarders and truck drivers

ABSTRACT

Exploring route choice in the context of tolled alternatives can support road operators to achieve better utilization of the infrastructure, as well as maximizing revenue collection. The research presented in this paper is conducted in the context of OPTIMUM, a European Union-funded project. The research objectives include a two-component system of models that proactively calculates commercial vehicles’ toll prices. The component presented in this paper rests on the development of a route choice model that estimates the probabilities of using two alternative routes (toll road vs. national road), based on route attributes and user characteristics. To explore the usefulness of the proposed methodology a case study involving 50 truck drivers and 25 freight operators was conducted in Portugal between January 2016 and November 2017. Results from the route choice model reveal interesting insights about the role of incentives in the choice of toll roads, the perspectives of the different decision-makers and produce Values of Time for the study area.     

A dichotomous choice survey for quantifying option and non-use values of bus services in Korea

The total economic value for a transportation service consists of use, option, and non-use value. The use benefit is based on a traveler’s willingness to pay for usual consumption of the service. The optional value, on the other hand, is related to the possible use of the service for trips not yet anticipated or currently accommodated by other travel modes. The non-use value, however, is derived from the intrinsic merit of the service, even though a trip-maker never actually or potentially depends on the mode. A closed-ended contingent valuation method is considered for the quantification of the option and non-use values. A survey of single- and double-bounded dichotomous choices is conducted with a case study of South Korean bus operations. A logistic regression model and a survival analysis for the single- and double-bounded approaches, respectively, are applied. The estimation result is examined according to the statistical property required and the behavioral validity expected. In particular, three issues from the output are discussed. First, the results help to show the preferable framework between single- and double-bounded surveys for addressing an individual’s option and non-use values. Second, the differences in the absolute values of option and non-use values are compared. Thirdly, the relationship between trip-makers’ willingness to pay and the level of service of their primary travel modes are investigated. In conclusion, the summary of research and the possibilities for future studies are given.     

An adaptive time gap car-following model

We intend to define a continuous car-following model exclusively based on the time gap. A model of the interaction between a vehicle and its predecessor is produced by adjusting the time gap to a targeted safety time that is a function of speed. The model is defined by a differential system, to which a consistent numerical scheme is associated. The parameters of the model are statistically estimated by maximum likelihood. In order to reproduce a heterogeneous traffic flow, vehicles are differentiated by type, and to recreate asymmetric longitudinal behavior, acceleration phases are distinguished from deceleration phases. Introducing a reaction time, inducing a delay in the perception and processing of information about vehicles in interaction, can alter the stability of the flux through appearance of kinematic waves. By simulation, the types and domains of parameters which are asymptotically unstable are identified. The results reveal that, in the model, the statistically estimated parameters form is strongly factor of instability.     

A joint time-assignment and expenditure-allocation model: value of leisure and value of time assigned to travel for specific population segments

Transportation - Based on a time-use model with a sound theoretical basis and carefully collected data for Austria, the value of leisure (VoL) for different population segments has been estimated....     

The German value of time and value of reliability study: the survey work

Transportation - In 2012 Germany’s Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) initiated several projects in preparation of the new Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan...     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip: An addendum

A paper was published in the immediately previous issue of this journal describing a stated preference experiment examining how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. The title was ‘A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip’, Volume 30(3):17–44. Numbers were used to indicate references in the text of the paper and in Table 1 accompanying the text, but these numbers were omitted from the list of references at the end of the paper - making it very difficult to identify specific citations. The list of references from the paper is reprinted below with the reference numbers included. This provides a listing that can be used in conjunction with the text of the paper and Table 1 as published to identify specific citations as intended.     

A latent class joint mode and departure time choice model for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

This paper presents a closed-form Latent Class Model (LCM) of joint mode and departure time choices. The proposed LCM offers compound substitution patterns between the two choices. The class-specific choice models are of two opposing nesting structures, each of which provides expected maximum utility feedback to the corresponding class membership model. Such feedback allows switching class membership in response to the changes in choice contexts. The model is used for an empirical investigation of commuting mode and departure time choices in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) by using a large sample household travel survey dataset. The empirical model reveals that overall 38% of the commuters in the GTHA are more likely to switch modes than departure times and 62% of them are more likely to do the reverse. The empirical model also reveals that the average Subjective Value of Travel Time Savings (SVTTS) of the commuters in the GTHA can be as low as 3 dollars if a single choice pattern of departure time choices nested within mode choices is considered. It can also be as high as 67 dollars if the opposite nesting structure is assumed. However, the LCM estimates the average SVTTS to be around 27 dollars in the GTHA. An empirical scenario analysis by using the estimated model indicates that a 50% increase in morning peak period car travel time does not sway more than 4% of commuters from the morning peak period.