Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO2 emissions

International shipping is a significant contributor to Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, responsible for approximately 3% of global CO₂ emissions. The International Maritime Organization is currently working to establish GHG regulations for international shipping and a cost effectiveness approach has been suggested to determine the required emission reductions from shipping. To achieve emission reductions in a cost effective manner, this study has assessed the cost and reduction potential for present and future abatement measures based on new and unpublished data. The model used captures the world fleet up to 2030, and the analysis includes 25 separate measures. A new integrated modelling approach has been used combining fleet projections with activity-based CO₂ emission modelling and projected development of measures for CO₂ emission reduction. The world fleet projections up to 2030 are constructed using a fleet growth model that takes into account assumed ship type specific scrapping and new building rates. A baseline trajectory for CO₂ emission is then established. The reduction potential from the baseline trajectory and the associated marginal cost levels are calculated for 25 different emission reduction measures. The results are given as marginal abatement cost curves, and as future cost scenarios for reduction of world fleet CO₂ emissions. The results show that a scenario in which CO₂ emissions are reduced by 33% from baseline in 2030 is achievable at a marginal cost of USD 0 per tonne reduced. At this cost level, emission in 2010 can be reduced by 19% and by 24% in 2020. A scenario with 49% reduction from baseline in 2030 can be achieved at a marginal cost of USD 100 per tonne (27% in 2010 and 35% in 2020). Furthermore, it is evident that further increasing the cost level beyond USD 100 per tonne yield very little in terms of further emission reduction. The results also indicate that stabilising fleet emissions at current levels is obtainable at moderate costs, compensating for fleet growth up to 2030. However, significant reductions beyond current levels seem difficult to achieve. Marginal abatement costs for the major ship types are also calculated, and the results are shown to be relatively homogenous for all major ship types. The presented data and methodology could be very useful for assisting the industry and policymakers in selecting cost effective solutions for reducing GHG emissions from the world fleet.     

CO2 emission statistics for the world commercial fleet

The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the world commercial fleet. The analysis is based on the Lloyds-Fairplay world ship database for 2007 and produces various emissions statistics of the following major ship types: bulk carriers, crude oil tankers, container vessels, product/chemical carriers, LNG carriers, LPG carriers, reefer vessels, Ro-Ro vessels and general cargo ships. A separate analysis is carried out for small vessels under 400 GRT and for passenger vessels. The main outputs from this analysis for each ship type-size bracket are the emitted grams of CO₂ per tonne-km and an estimate of the total CO₂ produced in a year. The methodology for estimating these statistics is described, and a comparison with other studies is made.     

集装箱支线运输船舶调度优化问题

调度是制约支线集装箱运输质量和效率的主要瓶颈之一。针对轴辐射海上运输模式,扩展了陆上车辆运输调度(VRP)理论,以所有船舶总的航行成本最低为目标函数,考虑了软时间约束等现实因素,构建了包含枢纽港和喂给港、多航线、多船型的支线集装箱船舶调度模型。基于该问题解的特征运用粒子群算法对模型进行了求解,最后通过仿真算例分析验证了模型的合理性及算法的有效性。     

The impact of port operations on efficient ship operation from both economic and environmental perspectives

Recently, shipping lines have focused on efficient ship operation, which relates to energy efficiency issues in shipping and, particularly, to operational issues such that the minimisation of fuel consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Efficient ship operation in container lines is closely related to the ship’s time at sea and ship’s time in port. Reduction in port time, thanks to high-quality port operations, allows improvement in the operational efficiency of a liner service by reducing the fuel consumption of a ship at sea and its resulting CO₂ emissions. The main goal of this article is to investigate how time in port affects efficient ship operation in terms of operating costs, CO₂ emissions and externalities. For this, as a methodology, a simulation based upon system dynamics is introduced. Major finding is that less time in port resulting from the improvement of port operations contributes to efficient ship operation in terms of operating costs, amount of CO₂ emissions and external effects in the liner shipping industry. In particular, a sensitivity analysis on efficient ship operation vis-à-vis the quality of port operation shows that bigger ships need to select highly productive calling ports that provide less time in port.     

Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO₂ emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO₂ emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO₂ emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316?Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO₂ emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO₂ emission reduction scenarios.     

促进集装箱码头节能减排的新型GRID系统

环境保护是我国的基本国策,港口是我国物流综合运输体系的枢纽和重要节点,担负着节能减排的艰巨任务。GRID系统是适用于港口集装箱码头水平运输的新型设备,GRID系统的装卸设备具有自重轻、作业环节少和全电力驱动等优点,有利于集装箱码头的节能减排。     

Atmospheric emissions of European SECA shipping: long-term projections

We modeled the projections of the major atmospheric emissions from shipping of the European sulphur emission control area that includes the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the English Channel until 2040. Emission projections were calculated separately for every ship on annual basis, and the model took into account traffic growth, fleet renewal, and the forthcoming regulations. The regulation on sulfur content of ship fuels will drastically decrease the emissions of sulfur oxides and particulate matter (PM_2.5). As the regulation on nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) only affects the new diesel engines, the decrease in emissions will be seen parallel with the fleet renewal. Globally internalized limits will turn NO _x emissions to decrease with moderate traffic growth. However, by designating the Baltic Sea and the North Sea as NO _x emission control areas, more drastic decrease would occur. CO₂ emissions will stay almost constant through the studied timeline. Results show that European Commission's CO₂ target for 2050 will not be reached without implementation of market based measures among the North Sea and the Baltic Sea fleets. Results present new information for decision makers to further develop international regulations of shipping especially in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.     

The influence of route choice and operating conditions on fuel consumption and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission of ships

The influence of various parameters, such as ship initial speed (full ahead and lower engine loads), loading condition, heading angle and weather conditions on ship fuel consumption and CO₂ emission is presented. A reliable methodology for estimating the attainable ship speed, fuel consumption and CO₂ emission in different sea states is described. The speed loss is calculated by taking into account the engine and propeller performance in actual seas as well as the mass inertia of the ship. The attainable ship speed is obtained as time series. Correlation of speed loss with sea states allows predictions of propulsive performance in actual seas. If the computation is used for weather routing purposes, values for various ship initial speed, loading conditions and heading angles for each realistic sea‐state must be provided. The voluntary speed loss is taken into account. The influence of the ship speed loss on various parameters such as fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is presented. To illustrate the presented concept, the ship speed and CO₂ emissions in various routes of the Atlantic Ocean are calculated using representative environmental design data for the track of the routes where the ship will sail.     

集卡调度方式对集装箱港区碳排放的影响

集卡已成为集装箱港区内的主要碳排放源,尤其两艘大型集装箱船舶同时作业时,港区内集卡碳排放问题严重。针对该情况下集卡调度模式的特征,基于智能体仿真技术构建集装箱码头生产作业微观仿真模型,定量分析传统先卸后装、双船一装一卸、同贝同步装卸工艺下集卡调度方式与集卡配置数量对船舶在港时间、集卡碳排放量的影响。实例表明,采用同贝同步装卸作业方案可保证装卸效率,并有效减少集卡碳排放,而集卡配置数量只对集卡怠速行驶产生的碳排产生影响。     

Transshipment hub port selection for shipping carriers in a dual hub-port system

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the factors affecting transshipment (T/S) hub port selection by a feeder port and helps shipping carriers make a decision about T/S hub port selection in a dual hub-port system. By employing established evaluation factors, a case study is conducted to weigh the priority of factors and to select an alternative T/S hub port, such as between the Shanghai and Ningbo ports from the Nanjing feeder port in the Yangtze River delta (YRD). A combined multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) method is employed to both reduce the number of pairwise comparisons by AHP and to obtain experts’ knowledge in the decision-making process. The result indicates that the cost, availability of hub port’s space allocation, and the connectivity between feeder port and hub port are crucial factors for T/S hub port selection by shipping carriers. In the case study, Shanghai is selected as the T/S hub port from the Nanjing feeder port. Nevertheless, Ningbo port has the advantage of cost, and if the relationship with feeder port can be improved, Ningbo port would be preferred over Shanghai as a T/S hub port for shipping carriers in a dual hub-port system.     

Air pollution from ships: Recent developments

All developments on air pollution by ships are fairly recent. Annex VI of the international Marpol-convention, regulating the emissions of CFCs, Halons, Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) from cargoes, emissions from incinerators and exhaust gas emissions from engines (NO_x and SO_x) entered into force in May 2005. The International Maritime Organization is currently discussing an upgrade of the air pollution issues covered by Annex VI and some that are not in Annex VI, such as greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ is the most important greenhouse gas emitted by ship. Fuel consumption by the world merchant fleet is expected to grow to between 250–300 million tons per year with corresponding CO₂ emissions of 800–960 million tons per year. In Western Europe land based measures have reduced sulphur emissions substantially, leaving shipping as an important remaining source of these emissions. Average sulphur content of heavy fuel oils is 3%, with a limit of 4.5% imposed by Annex VI. Both the Baltic- and the North Sea have the status of SO_x emission control area, limiting sulphur content to 1.5%.     

An econometric analysis for container shipping market

This article presents an econometric analysis for the fluctuation of the container freight rate due to the interactions between the demand for container transportation services and the container fleet capacity. The demand is derived from international trade and is assumed to be exogenous, while the fleet capacity increases with new orders made two years before, proportional to the industrial profit. Assuming the market clears each year, the shipping freight rate will change with the relative magnitude of shifts in the demand and fleet capacity.

This model is estimated using the world container shipping market statistics from 1980 to 2008, applying the three-stage least square method. The estimated parameters of the model have high statistical significance, and the overall explanatory power of the model is above 90%. The short-term in-sample prediction of the model can largely replicate the container shipping market fluctuation in terms of the fleet size dynamics and the freight rate fluctuation in the past 20 years. The prediction of the future market trend reveals that the container freight rate should continue to decrease in the coming three years if the demand for container transportation services grows at less than 8%.     

Environmental efficiency measures for ports: an application of RAM-Tobit-RAM with undesirable outputs

In this paper, the environmental efficiency of the ports is measured. Labour, fund and infrastructure input are selected as the inputs, container throughput, cargo throughput and main business income are selected as the outputs, CO₂ emission is chosen as the undesirable output. A new model—RAM-Tobit-RAM (Range Adjusted Measure) with undesirable outputs is built to evaluate the environmental efficiency. Ten Chinese ports from 2004 to 2013 are taken as the samples to verify its rationality. The results suggest that it is not necessarily beneficial for environmental efficiency to expand the port scale.     

海港集装箱码头新型装卸工艺技术和模式的探讨

通过对国、内外海港集装箱码头新工艺和新技术开发研究情况的介绍,认为采用节能减排技术、新型高效的岸边装卸桥和堆场水平运输机械设备,建设自动化集装箱堆场(ACY)和全自动化的集装箱码头(ACT)已成为今后海港集装箱码头发展的方向.根据新时期我国海港集装箱码头发展的特点,提出集装箱码头和堆场装卸工艺模式创新的设想,并建议创造...     

集装箱船舶的大型化提出的新的要求

此文主要讨论了集装箱船大型化对港口基础设施、内陆集疏运系统、保险及环保等提出的新的要求和影响,以及超大型集装箱船的经济性问题。     

Evaluating air emission inventories and indicators from cruise vessels at ports

This paper provides an estimation of air emissions (CO₂, NO_X, SO_X and PM) released by cruise vessels at the port level. The methodology is based on the “full bottom-up” approach and starts by evaluating the fuel consumed by each vessel on the basis of its individual port activities (manoeuvring, berthing and hoteling). The Port of Barcelona was selected as the site at which to perform the analysis, in which 125 calls of 30 cruise vessels were monitored. Real-time data from the automatic identification system (AIS), factor emissions from engine certificates and vessel characteristics from IHS Sea-web database were also collected for the analysis. The research findings show that the most appropriate indicators are inventory emissions per “port-time gross tonnage”, “port-time passenger” and “port time”. These emission indicators improve our understanding of cruise emissions and will facilitate the work that aims to estimate reliably and quickly the in-port ship emission inventories of cruise ports.     

洋山港集装箱滚装渡船船型方案探讨

针对洋山港建成国际集装箱深水港后的集装箱集疏运问题,及该航线特点,提出一种滚装渡船方案,从布置地位、性能要求等方面展开,对这种船型进行分析计算。结果表明：通过这种船型集疏运集装箱的过海成本较低。     

The impacts of strait and canal blockages on the transportation costs of the Chinese fleet in the shipping network

ABSTRACT

Straits and canals have always served as key nodes in shipping networks. The blockage of a strait or canal will lead to ship deviations and increased transportation costs. To measure this impact on the Chinese fleet, our study develops a mathematical model that is based on a programming formulation. Each strait or canal is assumed to be blocked in turn, and the increased transportation costs for the Chinese fleet in different scenarios are calculated and compared using the proposed programming formulation in order to measure the impact of the blocked strait or canal on the Chinese fleet. Larger increases in transportation costs have greater impacts on the fleet. The results show that a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz would have the greatest impact of all straits and canals; it would cause the Chinese fleet to lose a portion of its import and export market, and such a blockage cannot be addressed through ship deviations. Based upon increased transportation costs, the four straits or canals that would have the greatest impact if blocked are the Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, the Sunda Strait and the English Channel.     

Multi-period liner ship fleet planning with dependent uncertain container shipment demand

This paper deals with a realistic multi-period liner ship fleet planning problem by incorporating stochastic dependency of the random and period-dependent container shipment demand. This problem is formulated as a multi-period stochastic programming model with a sequence of interrelated two-stage stochastic programming (2SSP) problems characterized ship fleet planning in each single period. A solution method integrating dual decomposition and Lagrangian relaxation method is designed for solving the developed model. Numerical experiments are carried out to assess applicability and performance of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The results further demonstrate importance of stochastic dependence of the uncertain container shipment demand.     

Optimal container ship size: a global cost minimization approach

ABSTRACT

Currently, the best container ship size in a service is determined mainly by the liner operator, considering only the economies of scale of ships. Its external diseconomies to the ports and shippers are usually not considered in the decision-making process, which may reduce the overall efficiency and lead to global nonoptimality. This study incorporates the cost to the shipping companies at the main lines, ports, and feeder services, as well as the external costs to shippers and ports in a hub-and-spoke network, and determines the best ship size and the number of weekly services to minimize the overall costs. The external cost to the shippers in the feeder ports is assumed to be proportional to the feeder cost, and a sensitivity analysis is provided. The maximum container ship size is estimated according to different levels of freight demand. A numerical analysis shows that the optimal size should be smaller than the current biggest container ships in service.