Vulnerability of Coastal Resort Cities to Mean Sea Level Rise in the Mexican Caribbean

We evaluated the potential economic impacts of increasing sea level rise (SLR) along the Mexican Caribbean where there are major gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling flooding duration and frequency associated to future ecological and economic impacts. We determined the negative economic impact of SLR on infrastructure in the largest urban centers (Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel) in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) that are considered the largest tourism “hot spots” (resort cities) in the country. The tourism industry in this coastal area injects >8 billion dollars year^?1 to the Mexican economy. Our conservative economic assessment regarding the impact of SLR, under a 1?m scenario for all coastal cities is $330 million USD. Further projections for worst scenarios (SLR >2 m) show a non-linear trend where the cost of inaction can reach up to $1.4 billion USD (2?m SLR scenario) and $2.3 billion USD (3?m SLR scenario). This potential loss of infrastructure, as construction cost, is staggering and represents a robust baseline to start evaluating with more detail future impacts of climate variability and change on the Mexican Caribbean coastline.     

U.S. Coastal Flood Insurance,Risk Perception,and Sea-Level Rise: A Perspective

This article uses coastal flood insurance policy in the United States to discuss the influence of historical and existing policy frameworks on the development of new policy directions in coastal management within a context of risk perception. It is presumed that under conditions of current and future sea-level rise, coastal planning will have to develop forward-looking policy instruments focused on managing human expectations, particularly the expectations of those living along the coast. Planning will be supported, in large part, by evolving scientific evidence on sea-level rise and the attendant hazards that accompany this phenomenon. It is likely that policy proposals for future coastal management will deviate to some degree from previous management practices. The role of previous management practices in supporting a perception of risk that deviates from actual risks is explored using historical and current coastal flood insurance policy in the United States as an example. The goal of this analysis is to highlight the importance of community risk perception, as a function of past policy practice, when considering new coastal management policy directions.     

Analysis of Ocean-Space and Sea-Level Rise Policy in Two Coastal Cities

Global sea-level rise (SLR) is among the most alarming aspects of anthropogenic climate change. The human impacts of SLR are experienced unequally between and within municipalities. Existing research has identified social variables that predict municipal adoption of adaptive SLR policy, but this work does not account for the locally specific social factors that shape particular policies to fit particular cases. This study describes social conceptions of the ocean and SLR policy for two coastal cities in western Washington: Aberdeen and Bainbridge Island. Examining conceptions of marine spaces provides insight into the complex process by which local physical and socio-demographic characteristics shape local policy. The study uses a grounded theoretical approach to content analyses, resulting in localized typologies of marine spaces as well as SLR policy profiles for each case. Results indicate that municipalities vary by both social conception of the ocean and SLR policy form. These findings elaborate upon the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and municipal climate change policy adoption, suggesting that in local media and policy discourse, the absence of relevant resources is related to adversarial conceptions of local marine spaces, while abundance of relevant resources is associated with a conception of marine spaces as natural resources.     

Managing Shoreline Change Under Increasing Sea-Level Rise in Ghana

Relative sea-level rise will affect vulnerable coastal communities globally. Quantifying this effect on the coastal environment and infrastructure provides critical information that enables coastal managers to develop sustainable mitigation and adaptation measures. Modeling applications have enabled the past, present, and future trends in shoreline morphology to be investigated in detail. Predictive numerical models depend largely on the reliability of the input data. This article reports on using the Soft Cliff and Platform Erosion (SCAPE) numerical model to simulate future shoreline evolution trend in the central Accra coast in Ghana. The model input parameters include historic shoreline recession rates, wave data, tidal data, bathymetry, beach volume, beach topography, historic relative sea-level rise rates, and the shoreline orientation. The data fed the SCAPE numerical model which simulated the emergence of soft rock shore profiles over timescale of decades to centuries, to project future positions of the central Accra shoreline for the next 100 years under different scenarios of climate change. Simulated future shoreline positions overlaid on a 2005 orthophoto map of Accra enabled vulnerable areas and infrastructure at risk to be identified. It emerged that a highly populated community in central Accra will be inundated by 2065, while the Rivera beach resort will be eroded from 2035. A natural fish landing site in Osu (suburb in Accra) will be lost from 2045. The study has demonstrated that considerable ecological, economic, social, and national losses should be expected within the next century. Shoreline change management options should be explored to help mitigate the expected impact of the sea-level rise.     

Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. Here, we address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.     

GIS-Based Coastal Behavior Modeling and Simulation of Potential Land and Property Loss: Implications of Sea-Level Rise at Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach,Sydney (Australia)

Rising sea level potentially poses a threat to many coastal areas, thereby possibly affecting coastal environments, including human assets. Taking into account the precau--tionary principle demanded at the Framework Convention for Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, coastal managers and planners are required to evaluate the possibility of both physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise. However, long-term and cost-intensive data capture is often not affordable for a first estimation of general trends. To determine physical and economic impacts on a spatial scale of less than 10 km, a rapid and low-cost method is required. A Geographic Information System (GIS), in combination with readily available data and two coastal behaviour models (the Bruun-GIS Model and the Aggradation Model) was applied to simulate shoreline recession caused by a rise in sea level. In addition, the potential impacts of a 50-year design storm were considered in conjunction with sea-level rise. The monetary vulnerability was assessed and combined with the simulated recession rates. This procedure provides a first estimate on the potential risk a locality (here Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach) may face due to the impacts of sea-level rise and/or coastal storms. Overall, the modelling outcome suggests that long-term erosion problems associated with rising sea level are less significant in comparison with those impacts associated with short-term coastal storm events for Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach.     

Key beliefs and attitudes for sea-level rise policy

This article reviews key measures of public opinion on sea-level rise (SLR): beliefs, attitudes, issue prioritization, and policy support. To do so, we first assess the influence of SLR beliefs and attitudes on issue prioritization and policy support using state-level data. Then, we compare the state findings to other surveys conducted in a hot spot of rising coastal waters, the U.S. Mid-Atlantic, to better understand the landscape of public opinion. Our findings indicate that, as in studies of climate change public opinion, belief certainty that SLR is happening and attitudes about its consequences significantly influence issue prioritization and policy support. Compared to climate change, SLR demonstrates less salience, but is similarly a low public priority. Nevertheless, the public supports governmental policies that address the issue, preferring strategies that discourage new construction in high risk areas and employ “soft” protection through natural barriers. Among the least popular approaches are those that implement hard barriers to defend against encroaching seas. Communication programs and public consultation by governments can benefit from the use of survey data to support evidence-based decision-making.     

Perspectives of the Expert and Experienced on Challenges to Regional Adaptation for Sea Level Rise: Implications for Multisectoral Readiness and Boundary Spanning

This study focuses on adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in the specific context of the Hampton Roads region of southeastern coastal Virginia. It analyzes the perspectives of stakeholders who are experts in and have experience with SLR to develop an informed understanding of the region’s ability to address SLR and its readiness to pursue adaptation using a whole-of-community approach. A survey of the expert and experienced reveals (1) what they prioritized as the top three most challenging phases of regional adaptation and (2) what issues within those priority areas were the most pressing. Our findings point to the importance of meso- and micro-level boundary spanning across organizations and the whole of the community to ensure that multiple organizations and individuals in a region can be engaged in adaptation. Finally, this work briefly discusses how boundary-spanning approaches can provide a region a pathway toward overcoming barriers to effective climate-related adaptation.     

Suitability of Decision-Theoretic Models to Public Policy Issues Concerning the Provision of Shoreline Stabilization and Hazard Management

This article examines the suitability and potential advances of decision-theoretic models from finance regarding investment decisions in shoreline stabilization projects. A set of scenarios represents the dynamics of the decision-state facing the planner and identifies factors that should be incorporated into the decision-making process. It is shown that decision models from finance can account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in shoreline stabilization projects, potentially suggest improvements and refinements to presently used cost-benefit analysis procedures, and offer new tools that can aid in decisions concerning provision of shoreline stabilization. The outcomes of these scenarios justify better planning and control of existing and future building, and that of poststorm policies. Lastly, these models allow us to explore the range of our understanding of coastal processes and interactions with shoreline stabilization projects and can identify new and useful data needed in coastal management and hazard management decisions.     

Integrated Environmental Modeling and Assessment of Coastal Ecosystems: Application for Aquaculture Management

This article presents an approach that couples coastal ecosystem modeling with integrated environmental assessment methodologies to support coastal management. The focus is to support the development of an ecosystem approach to aquaculture management including interactions with watershed substance loading. A Chinese bay, with intense aquaculture and multiple catchment uses, and where significant modeling efforts were undertaken is used as a case study. The ecosystem model developed for this bay is used to run scenarios that test the local management strategy for nutrient reduction. The corresponding ecological and economic impacts of the managers’ scenarios are analyzed by means of the Differential Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (ΔDPSIR) analysis. Emphasis is given to the analysis of the eutrophication process in the bay including present eutrophic condition and the expected changes due to the simulated scenarios. For this purpose, the Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status (ASSETS) screening model is a valuable tool to interpret and classify the data and model outputs regarding eutrophication condition and to evaluate the manageable level of the nutrient loading entering in the bay.     

Vulnerability of Port and Harbor Communities to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards: The Use of GIS in Community Hazard Planning

Earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.     

Constructing Paradise: The Impacts of Big Tourism in the Mexican Coastal Zone

Although coastal tourism is often looked to as a way of generating foreign revenue, it can also engender a range of social and environmental impacts. From an historical perspective, this article examines the growth of Cancún in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo since the late 1960s. The article documents a range of socioeconomic and environmental impacts associated with the rise of coastal tourism, and suggests that centralized planning and the provision of physical and financial infrastructure does not prevent those impacts. The principal causes of these impacts are also described, including changes in land-usage, population, tourism markets, foreign market penetration and control, an emphasis on short-term economic gain, weak regulatory enforcement, and an overall lack of integration of coastal zone management.     

Power plant siting on Wisconsin's coasts: A case study of a displaceable use

Abstract

The issue of whether power plants should be located on Wisconsin's Lake Michigan shore or inland is addressed in this article. It is quite likely that sites for several large power plants will be needed before the year 2000. Available evidence on the comparative costs of condenser cooling indicates that there may or may not be substantial economies from locating these plants at lakeshore sites depending on site characteristics, fuel costs, and other variables. Environmental impacts of coastal and inland siting are surveyed and also appear to be highly site‐specific. Important issues arise with respect to the intense competition for coastal land and the aquatic impacts at both coastal and inland sites. A third alternative, that of utilizing sites that are in the coastal zone but set back from the water's edge, has some promising aspects, but data on costs are scarce and inconclusive. Conclusions center on the importance of not ruling out either coastal or inland locations in future efforts to identify suitable power plant sites, the need to review current water‐quality measures, and the need for further research on institutions to facilitate sound siting decisions.     

Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Beach Use: A Case Study of East Anglia,UK

As tourists are sensitive to weather conditions and changes to the environments they visit, it is likely that climate change will affect coastal recreation in the future. To understand these impacts, it is first important to quantify how visitor numbers are associated with beach characteristics and weather patterns. Using the East Anglian coastline, UK, as a case study, information on the spatial distribution of visitors recorded from aircraft flights is combined with beach characteristic data in a Geographical Information System. In addition, surveys are undertaken at two beaches to assess temporal variations in visitation. The study finds a diverse range of characteristics are associated with visitor numbers. These findings are evaluated alongside the anticipated effects of climate change and management policies. Although it is predicted that warmer weather will increase visitor numbers overall, sea-level rise may reduce numbers at wide sandy beaches, which are currently most preferred by tourists.     

An Analysis of the Impact of the Internet on Coastal Management

The role of the Internet in coastal management practice is analyzed through the Internet's communication and information access capacity. Primary and secondary impacts of the Internet in coastal management are assessed. A broad research framework is employed, including background on the development and spread of the Internet worldwide; analysis of emerging literature on the societal impact of the Internet; limited existing research on the use of the Internet by environmental management professionals generally and coastal managers in particular; and personal experience of the authors in the development of coastal management Internet sites. This analytical framework is supplemented by the first survey of integrated coastal management (ICM) Internet websites by www.coastalmanagement.com and a case study of the Internet Center for Coastal Management (ICCM) Internet-based communication platform based at the University of Washington. The survey of ICM websites found a total of 77 websites worldwide, with a dominance of sites in English located in the developed world. Assessment of the first year of operation of the ICCM project to facilitate discussion between coastal management practitioners and students in the United States and the Philippines demonstrates the enormous potential of the Internet as a communications tool in coastal management and also reveals the many practical technological and cultural constraints of using the Internet, especially in working on a project between the developed and developing world. Three groups of scenarios of the future use of the Internet in coastal management with decreasing levels of forecast certainty, namely, "probable," and "possible," and "potential for" are presented and discussed. Finally, the potential for the Internet to fundamentally transform the practice of coastal management is analyzed. It is concluded that while such a potential exists, there remain significant research questions requiring further analysis before the full transformative potential, and the possible impacts of such a transformation on coastal management, can be fully assessed. This article aims to provide a benchmark against which such future assessments can be made.     

Examining Local Coastal Zone Management Capacity in U.S. Pacific Coastal Counties

The coastal zone has critical natural, commercial, recreational, ecological, industrial, and esthetic values for current and future generations. Thus, there are increasing pressures from population growth and coastal land development. Local coastal land use planning plays an important role in implementing the U.S. Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) by establishing goals and performance policies for addressing critical coastal issues. This study extends the CZMA Performance Measurement System from the national level to the local land use level by measuring coastal zone land use plan quality and political context in fifty-three Pacific coastal counties. Plan quality is measured using an evaluation protocol defined by five components and sixty-eight indicators. The results indicate a reasonable correspondence between national goals and local coastal zone land use planning goals, but a slight gap might exist between the national/state versus local levels in the overall effectiveness of coastal zone management (CZM) efforts. The results show many U.S. Pacific coastal counties lack strong coastal zone land use plans because the average plan quality score was only 22.7 out of 50 points. Although these plans set relatively clear goals and objectives, they are somewhat weaker in their factual basis, identify a limited range of the available planning tools and techniques, and establish few coordination and implementation mechanisms. The regression analysis results indicate that CZM plan quality was not significantly related to any of the jurisdictional characteristics.     

Coastal energy impact mitigation in the Gulf: The past reviewed and alternatives for the future

Abstract

With the future of the Coastal Energy Impact Program (CEIP) in question and with oil and gas leasing and drilling activities in the Gulf of Mexico expected to increase, the question arises as to how energy impacts are to be mitigated. It is concluded that CEIP has helped to mitigate coastal energy impacts. If it is left unfunded, an alternative would be to provide Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) royalties to states to be used for impact prevention and mitigation.     

Factors Affecting Disaster Preparedness,Response, and Recovery Using the Community Capitals Framework

Abstract

Disaster research often focuses on how and why communities are affected by a discrete extreme event. We used the community capitals framework to understand how community characteristics influence their preparedness, response to, and recovery from successive or multiple disasters using the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake and the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill as case studies. This study assesses community response to these disasters by reviewing published literature on impacts to create profiles for six communities and by identifying community capitals before and during these disasters, and throughout the long-term recovery. While the presence of rich natural capitals commonly contributed resources to pre-disaster planning and long-term recovery, restriction of resource access immediately following the disasters was detrimental to many communities. Communities with strong political, social, and financial capitals tended to fare better immediately following disasters, enabling longer-term processes of transformation or recovery. However, in some communities the oil spill undermined these capitals more than the earthquake and resulting tsunami. In understanding how use and reliance on community capitals can lead to varied recovery success from different kinds of disasters, these findings can help coastal managers and planners prepare for future disasters.     

Evaluating economic and environmental value of liner vessel sharing along the maritime silk road

The Belt and Road initiative is a novel exploration of China towards strategic collaboration with Eurasia countries to an extent of a larger scale with higher and deeper level of cooperation. To meet the growing global demand of transportation, increasing numbers of liner shipping companies collaborate and form alliances to share vessel capacity and reduce capital costs. Effective liner shipping vessel sharing is essential for the Belt and Road initiative in terms of building efficient maritime transport networks. In promoting environmental development, shipping companies are required to attain higher environmental standards. However, limited literature relates vessel sharing to environmental performance. This paper studies the impacts of liner vessel sharing from the economic and environmental perspectives. Two container allocation models are developed for the two scenarios: with and without vessel sharing. The carbon emissions in transportation are calculated under both scenarios. Numerical studies are carried out using services along the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic (CIPE) Corridor. Liner shipping companies could benefit from vessel sharing in terms of significant profit improvement. Vessel sharing could also benefit the environment by reducing the CO₂ emissions dramatically.