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1.
    
Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.  相似文献   

2.
Beach “nourishment” consists of placing sand on an eroding beach. The widened beach provides increased storm protection to adjacent structures and improved recreational benefits, but is most often transient, requiring on-going, repeated nourishment episodes. Numerical models of beach nourishment typically address such questions as how long a widened beach will last; economic models compare the benefits and costs of preserving a stretch of beach without regard to its geomorphic evolution. Neither have addressed the physical nor economic interactions between adjacent nourishing communities. Here, we couple a numerical model of coastline evolution and a cost-benefit model of beach nourishment, allowing adjacent communities to make dynamic nourishment decisions. Beach nourishment benefits adjacent communities both “updrift” and “downdrift.” The total amount of money spent on nourishment activities can decrease by as much as 25% when adjacent communities both conduct on-going nourishment projects, as opposed to the case where each community nourishes in isolation.  相似文献   

3.
    
To identify priority information needs for sea-level rise planning, we conducted workshops in Florida, North Carolina, and Massachusetts in the summer of 2012. Attendees represented professionals from five stakeholder groups: federal and state governments, local governments, universities, businesses, and nongovernmental organizations. Over 100 people attended and 96 participated in breakout groups. Text analysis was used to organize and extract most frequently occurring content from 16 total breakout groups. The most frequent key words/phrases were identified among priority topics within five themes: analytic tools, communications, land use, ecosystem management, and economics. Diverse technical and communication tools were identified to help effectively plan for change. In many communities, planning has not formally begun. Attendees sought advanced prediction tools yet simple messaging for decision-makers facing politically challenging planning questions. High frequency key words/phrases involved fine spatial scales and temporal scales of less than 50 years. Many needs involved communications and the phrase “simple messaging” appeared with the highest frequency. There was some evidence of geographic variation among regions. North Carolina breakout groups had a higher frequency of key words/phrases involving land use. The results reflect challenges and tractable opportunities for planning beyond current, geophysically brief, time scales (e.g., election cycles and mortgage periods).  相似文献   

4.
Fifty-five percent of Georgia's developed coastline has been armored with various types of erosion protection devices. This article is about beach improvement projects at Jekyll Island that would operate under (a) a nourishment policy or (b) a retreat policy. Benefits are calculated from an intensive, on-site survey of beach visitors and the costs are calculated from observable sources. Two financing methods are considered: general revenue and user fee financing. The analyses imply recommending beach improvement as an effective policy within the considered time frame.  相似文献   

5.
    
We evaluated the potential economic impacts of increasing sea level rise (SLR) along the Mexican Caribbean where there are major gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling flooding duration and frequency associated to future ecological and economic impacts. We determined the negative economic impact of SLR on infrastructure in the largest urban centers (Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel) in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) that are considered the largest tourism “hot spots” (resort cities) in the country. The tourism industry in this coastal area injects >8 billion dollars year?1 to the Mexican economy. Our conservative economic assessment regarding the impact of SLR, under a 1?m scenario for all coastal cities is $330 million USD. Further projections for worst scenarios (SLR >2 m) show a non-linear trend where the cost of inaction can reach up to $1.4 billion USD (2?m SLR scenario) and $2.3 billion USD (3?m SLR scenario). This potential loss of infrastructure, as construction cost, is staggering and represents a robust baseline to start evaluating with more detail future impacts of climate variability and change on the Mexican Caribbean coastline.  相似文献   

6.
    
Relative sea-level rise will affect vulnerable coastal communities globally. Quantifying this effect on the coastal environment and infrastructure provides critical information that enables coastal managers to develop sustainable mitigation and adaptation measures. Modeling applications have enabled the past, present, and future trends in shoreline morphology to be investigated in detail. Predictive numerical models depend largely on the reliability of the input data. This article reports on using the Soft Cliff and Platform Erosion (SCAPE) numerical model to simulate future shoreline evolution trend in the central Accra coast in Ghana. The model input parameters include historic shoreline recession rates, wave data, tidal data, bathymetry, beach volume, beach topography, historic relative sea-level rise rates, and the shoreline orientation. The data fed the SCAPE numerical model which simulated the emergence of soft rock shore profiles over timescale of decades to centuries, to project future positions of the central Accra shoreline for the next 100 years under different scenarios of climate change. Simulated future shoreline positions overlaid on a 2005 orthophoto map of Accra enabled vulnerable areas and infrastructure at risk to be identified. It emerged that a highly populated community in central Accra will be inundated by 2065, while the Rivera beach resort will be eroded from 2035. A natural fish landing site in Osu (suburb in Accra) will be lost from 2045. The study has demonstrated that considerable ecological, economic, social, and national losses should be expected within the next century. Shoreline change management options should be explored to help mitigate the expected impact of the sea-level rise.  相似文献   

7.
    
The current approach to coastal development set-back delineation in South Africa is producing high-tech empirical methodologies that attempt to pinpoint areas at risk from physical coastal processes and the subsequent positioning of set-backs in relation to these risk areas. Experience in the Western Cape province of South Africa has shown that this approach contributes only partially to coastal risk management. In the context of an urban and peri-urban environment, and bearing in mind that set-backs have significant socioeconomic implications, the development of a set-back line at the local scale requires an expansion beyond just relying on the numerical modeling of physical coastal processes. This research reveals that such an approach is parochial and socially detached and a more inclusive and integrated approach grounded in and spanning localized social, cultural, economic, political, and ecological intricacies of the coastal space is required. Fundamental to achieving this is a re-consideration of the broader project management processes applied in the development of set-backs. The article concludes with a set of principles and guidelines for determining set-backs in complex coastal contexts at the local scale.  相似文献   

8.
    
The “no net wetland loss” goal has not been met in urban coastal regions where conditions continue to exacerbate wetland losses. Under the Clean Water Act (Section 404) the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U. S. Environmental Protection Agency share responsibility for regulating placement of fill material in wetlands. The `no discharge of fill' rules threaten coastal wetlands with continuing losses due to effects of changing climate, including rising sea levels, higher storm surges, and flooding. Where inland migration is limited by development, or where sediment accretion rates are lower than the rate of sea level rise, urban wetlands will be lost unless marsh topography is elevated. We explored regulatory and design approaches in recent Hudson-Raritan Estuary (HRE), San Francisco Bay Estuary and coastal Louisiana restorations, including creation of new marshland using dredge material. Questions related to sea level rise, ecological position within the landscape, or potential effects of extreme storm events were not addressed in the HRE restoration designs; these concerns were taken into account in other regions. We suggest benefits of marsh `replenishment' should be acknowledged in Federal regulatory policy and that consistent policies supportive of low-lying coastal marsh preservation in all regions should be enacted.  相似文献   

9.
Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. Here, we address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.  相似文献   

10.
  目的  瘫船稳性是当船舶失去动力后,在横风横浪状态下发生共振横摇甚至倾覆的运动模式,是公认的较危险的稳性失效模式。国际海事组织(IMO)船舶设计与建造分委会(SDC)预计将于2019年完成第2代完整稳性衡准规则定稿,目前亟需大量的样船计算以完善规则。  方法  基于局部线性化方法,对3艘集装箱船进行了瘫船稳性第2层衡准校核计算,并分析了瘫船稳性敏感性与船舶各设计参数的关系。  结果  分析结果表明,随着船舶吃水深度的增大,船舶倾覆概率将先增大后减小,并对第2层衡准的标准值选取及衡准完善提出了建议。  结论  可为瘫船稳性衡准研究提供技术支持。  相似文献   

11.
丁春葵 《世界海运》2007,30(5):28-29
指出船舶发生海损后进行风险评估的必要性,根据危险评价的一般原则和方法对船舶发生海损后的处置措施提出评估方法和手段,有助于船东、海损事故处置决策人员正确选择处置措施。  相似文献   

12.
郑炳新 《世界海运》2006,29(2):38-39
通过一个真实的案例对“无害通过权”的意义和运用加以分析,提醒航海人员灵活运用联合国海洋法条款中的无害通过权,以一个适当的视角看待海洋国际法。  相似文献   

13.
Dangerous marine stingers (jellyfish) are an emotive issue in tropical Australia, where they are widely regarded as the number one marine health threat. However, numerous severe and fatal stings have been reported throughout the tropical and temperate seas of the world, indicating that marine stingers are a global health problem. Further, life-threatening jellyfish stings are more frequently reported globally now compared to earlier decades, possibly as a result of improved recognition and reporting, or increased spatial and/or temporal distribution or densities. As stinging incidents may also have significant financial implications (lost tourism revenues and liability settlements), and the treatment of envenomed patients comes at high cost to the taxpayer, this issue is also a management challenge. This article outlines suggested approaches, based largely on Australian experience, for dealing with this under-recognized global coastal management issue.  相似文献   

14.
ABSTRACT

The pursuit of better performance by the local government can influence the investment decision-making related to port expansion. This paper compares the ceilings at which the port enterprise and the local government would stop making investments. To achieve this, the benefits to the port enterprise and the local government are measured over a given time period. An empirical study investigating how a port would respond if a rival port uses a type of capacity investment strategy is conducted for two major ports in Liaoning. The time at which the local government and the port enterprise would stop making investments and the final equilibrium are developed using the data from 2010. From the empirical results, it was found that investment in port capacity contributes greatly to the local government’s performance. Meanwhile, different investment ceilings are discovered for the port enterprise and the local government. This research is meaningful for discussing the institutional relationship between the local government and the port enterprise in China’s current decentralized port governance system.

This paper is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled ‘Port expansion mechanism in the context of political achievement of local government: a special phenomenon in China’ presented at International Association of Maritime Economists 2012 Taipei Conference during 5th September –8th September.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

Marine and coastal zone policy represents a collaboration of people managing and people managed. This paper takes a holistic stance in suggesting that marine communities are viewed properly as networks of focused interest groups, policymakers, professionals, and publics. The interplay between culture and marine and coastal policy is appropriately one topic of applied social research. Seven ethnographic studies in this domain are introduced in this theme issue and help us to understand sociocultural processes and institutions bearing on marine affairs.  相似文献   

16.
王烈  戴志华 《舰船电子工程》2012,32(6):89-91,142
目前软件漏洞静态解决方案大都有针对性的检测某些方面的软件漏洞,无法做到全面、高效、准确的检测出所有漏洞。通过讨论目前已有的一些漏洞检测技术与工具,并研究这些工具与技术各自存在的优势与缺陷。在此基础上提出改进漏洞检测静态分析的优化策略。  相似文献   

17.
刘尚雷  姜淼 《中国水运》2006,6(5):147-149
从商人的营业的构成、营业的组织样态以及存在形式、营业活动的场所等角度来论证商人营业活动的特色并由此肯定其积极作用,并将这种营业行为定义成一种朴素的营利活动,从而将之上升到商法的本质层面来进行考察,并最终得出结论:商人营业行为的存在有着很深刻的理性因素,商人的营业行为在商法的制度框架内有效的运行是成就“商”这一活动的支柱,更是这个活动存续的重要根基。  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

Delay in the construction of containment sites is allowing time for significant adjustments in the confined disposal program of the Great Lakes. Through modification of the pollution criteria and improvements in harbor sampling, fewer containment sites, some with smaller capacities, are now required. Perhaps most important, the delays are providing additional time for upgrading waste treatment facilities which may be reducing future dredging volumes. Unless pollution abatement measures are implemented and technological improvements made regarding containment of the excess spoil water, cleanup of the harbors and connecting channels may not be fully accomplished during the 10‐year period in which containment sites are authorized.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

National and regional estimates of U.S. economic vulnerability to greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise are produced from a sample of 30 discrete regions scattered evenly along the coastline. Scenarios that envision 50 cm, 100 cm, and 200 cm of greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise are considered. They can be expected to place $39.2, $65.6, and $133.3 billion, respectively, (1989 dollars) of existing development in jeopardy through 2050, and $133.3, $308.7, and $909.4 billion through 2100. Sampling error and consideration of the uncertainty with which we currently view future greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise places the 25th and 75th percentile values of expected cumulative vulnerability at $38.5 and $76.7 billion through 2050 and $132.6 and $362.4 billion through 2100. Not surprisingly, the southeast displays the largest potential vulnerability, with the northeast ranking second above both the Gulf coast and the west coast.  相似文献   

20.
刘亭  严平  谭波 《舰船电子工程》2012,32(9):84-86,131
以水雷为研究对象,提出了水雷目标易损性研究的总体框架;通过对水雷的结构及功能分析、毁伤级别的确定以及构建水雷功能毁伤树,建立了水雷目标易损性模型;完成了水下射弹对水雷侵彻毁伤过程的数值仿真。仿真结果表明,钨芯射弹能够穿透水雷壳体并破坏引信舱内构件,造成水雷失效。  相似文献   

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