Factors affecting severity of motorcycle accidents on Thailand's arterial roads: Multiple correspondence analysis and ordered logistics regression approaches

Thailand was classified as a middle-income country and ranked second highest in terms of road traffic fatality rate in the world in 2015. By 2018, this ranking went up to ninth in world which may be because of various earnest safety policies implementation, supporting road safety research and establishing a road safety directing center. However, crash fatality rate has considerably remained high until recent year, indicating a clear need for further related research. Considering severity of the crashes, the majority of fatal crashes involved the motorcycle road user. Therefore, motorcycle crashes are important issues and should be considered to mitigate fatality due to immoderate proportion of motorcycle road user and motorcyclist fatality. This study aims to identify factors that influence the severity of motorcycle accidents on Thailand's arterial roads by employing ordered logistic regression and multiple correspondence analysis. The results demonstrated that although both analyses were relatively different, they provided similar results. Age, road lanes, and helmet wearing were significant factors that influenced the severity of motorcycle accidents. The results could serve as reference for planning strategies or organizing campaigns to reduce and prevent death owing to road traffic accidents, which may enhance the overall image of road traffic safety in Thailand.     

Development of probabilistic pedestrian fatality model for characterizing pedestrian-vehicle collisions

Pedestrian-related accidents are considered to be the most serious of traffic accidents due to the associated high fatality rates. In Korea, pedestrian fatalities accounted for approximately 40% of all traffic-related fatalities in 2004. Significant efforts have been made to develop effective countermeasures for pedestrian-vehicle collisions. A basis for devising such countermeasures is to understand the characteristics of pedestrian-vehicle collisions. This study develops a pedestrian fatality model capable of predicting the probability of fatality in pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Binary logistic regression and a probabilistic neural network (PNN) are employed to estimate the probability of pedestrian fatality. Pedestrian age, vehicle type and collision speed are used as independent variables of the fatality model. The models developed herein are valuable tools that can be used to direct safety policies and technologies associated with pedestrian safety.     

Effect of attitudes towards traffic safety and risk perceptions on pedestrian behaviours in Vietnam

This study explores the relationships between attitudes towards traffic safety, risk perceptions and pedestrian behaviours in Vietnam. A questionnaire survey was conducted with a sample of 835 Vietnamese road users. The results from regression analyses and a structural equation model showed that safer attitudes towards traffic safety and higher levels of traffic risk perception are associated with safer pedestrian behaviours. In addition, traffic safety attitudes were found to partially mediate the association between traffic risk perception and pedestrian behaviour. Furthermore, traffic risk perception was significantly predicted by non-traffic risk perception, and people who had higher level of risk perceptions of both kinds were also prone to report safer attitudes towards traffic safety. The practical implications for traffic safety interventions in Vietnam are also discussed.     

International analysis on social and personal determinants of traffic violations and accidents employing logistic regression with elastic net regularization

While the number of road fatalities is declining in developed countries, it is still increasing globally, especially in middle-and low-income countries. In addition to the driver's individual awareness and attitude toward traffic safety, various factors such as the development of road infrastructure and the legal system may have a significant influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Thus, it is essential to consider these factors to enhance traffic safety and achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Targets of 3.6.In this study, we developed an Elastic Net Regression model to evaluate the factors that influence an individual's traffic violations and accidents based on an international questionnaire on traffic safety attitude, country fact survey data on traffic regulations, and other statistical databases. As a result, it was revealed that: i) In addition to country-level factors, the individual's attributes and attitudes toward traffic safety have an influence on the experience of traffic violations and accidents. and ii) While the same variables regarding individual attributes and attitudes are selected for both traffic violations and accidents, the selected variables relating to country factors differ between violations and accidents.     

What affects pedestrian crossing difficulty at urban intersections in a developing country?

In developing countries, road traffic crashes involving pedestrians have become a foremost concern. At present, road safety assessment plans and selection of interventions are primarily restricted to traditional approaches that depend on the investigations of historical crash data. However, in developing countries such as India, the availability, consistency, and accuracy of crash data are major concerns. In contrast, proactive approaches such as studying road users' risk perception have emerged as a substitute method of examining potential risk factors. An individual's risk perception offers vital information on probable crash risk, which may be beneficial in detecting high-risk locations and major causes of crashes. Since the pedestrian fatality risk is not uniform across the urban road network level, it may be expected that pedestrians' perceived risk measured in terms of “crossing difficulty” would also vary across the sites. In this perspective, the present paper establishes a mathematical association between the pedestrians' perceived “crossing difficulty” and actual crashes. The model outcome confirms that pedestrians' perceived crossing difficulty is a good surrogate of fatal pedestrian crashes at the intersection level in Kolkata City, India. Subsequently, to examine the impact of traffic exposures, road infrastructure, land use, spatial factors, and pedestrian-level attributes on pedestrians' “crossing difficulty”; a set of Ordered Logit models are developed. The model outcomes show that high vehicle and pedestrian volume, vehicular speed, absence of designated bus stop, the presence of inaccessible pedestrian crosswalk, on-street parking, lack of signalized control (for both vehicle and pedestrian), inadequate sight distance, land use pattern, slum population, pedestrian-vehicular post encroachment time, waiting time before crossing, road width, and absence of police enforcement at an intersection significantly and positively increase pedestrian's crossing difficulty at urban intersections. To end, the model findings are advantageously utilized to develop a set of countermeasures across 3E's of road safety.     

旅游公路交通量预测模型研究

为了更加准确的预测旅游公路的交通量,基于交通生成原理的不同,将旅游公路的交通量分成旅客交通量和背景交通量两部分。首先根据景区的等级、接待能力、特点和历史等数据预测得到景区的特征年旅客接待人数,根据景点周边城市的规模和交通条件求出旅游公路的通道交通量,考虑旅客出行特性的不同,采用非集计模型进行交通方式选择预测。最后加上通过常规预测方法求出的背景交通量得到旅游公路的总交通量。本文对旅游公路建设前期工作的研究有着重要的指导意义。     

Effectiveness of enforcement resources in the highway patrol in reducing fatality rates

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death in the United States. Wyoming initiated a safety study to investigate the underlying causes of high crash rates since it has one of the highest fatality rates in the nation. Research has shown relationships between increased enforcement activity and road crash/fatality reduction. However, little research has attempted to quantitatively measure the impact of various forms of police enforcement, such as the percentage of enforcement time and the quantity of resources, on fatality rate. Therefore, this study was set forward to fill this gap. Data from the highway patrol in Wyoming and the surrounding states were used in this study. Although Wyoming and these nearby states have very similar features in terms of geography and weather, they are different in terms of road mileage and traffic. Therefore, the data was normalized based on highway mileage and miles traveled. Enforcement efforts were compared in terms of allocated enforcement budget, number of sworn officers, and time spent patrolling. The results indicated that there are negative relationships between fatality rate and budget, number of officers, and active hours on the field. This paper also investigated which variable is the best predictor of fatality rate. The results indicated that time spent on the field by highway patrol officers is the best indicator of fatality rate. It was found that although some states like Wyoming have a higher number of sworn officers, they spend less time actively enforcing highway safety. This study provides information needed for authorities to allocate more funding to the highway patrol, and for the highway patrol to spend more time on the road.     

Challenges of localizing sustainable development goals in small cities: Research to action

The national governments have committed to various sustainable development goals (SDGs); however, actions have to be taken by the local administrations at the city level. In this paper, the city administrations' understanding and preparedness for implementing specific activities related to SDG targets 3.6, 3.9, and 11.2 are discussed. The results of how local communities can participate in prioritizing the implementation of SDG targets at the city level are also presented. Three small cities in India, namely Bulandshahr, Patiala, and Nainital, were monitored for three years. The research team worked closely with the local administrations and local citizens. This paper presents an analysis of the various activities undertaken by the research team and concludes that SDGs can be used as tools for providing ready targets to the authorities, bringing them to a common working ground. The SDG implementation in India follows the top–down approach; however, to achieve the SDG targets, the bottom–up approach should be followed. SDGs are not a priority for several city governments. Cities need encouragement and national support to adopt and implement these SDGs. We have to think of how SDGs can be used to influence day-to-day decisions. SDGs can also be a part of the outcome-based budget of municipalities to prioritize the implementation of SDG-oriented urban infrastructure and plans.     

大规模施工对城市路网交通影响评估技术研究

传统的施工期交通组织研究一般只针对单个建设项目，而城市在举办特别重大活动之前往往有一轮建设高潮，形成大范围集中性施工，对城市路网运行的影响很大，需从全局角度系统性评估其交通影响。针对大批量建设项目同时施工对路网整体的交通影响，提出了路网敏感路段划分、路网通行能力损失测算、基于交通模型推演的交通拥堵指数预测等评估技术，并在杭州“迎亚运”重大基础设施建设中予以运用，应用效果较好。     

A new approach to cross-sector cooperation in road safety through a comparison of policies in selected countries

Statistics from the databases of various countries and international organizations show that road accident rates and fatalities have fallen since the 1970s. With demographic changes taking place in many developed countries, however, accident and accident-risk patterns have changed in the last two decades. This study aims to introduce a new approach to cross-sector cooperation with the hope of making road safety more holistic and sustainable. The authors compare the road safety policies of three selected countries based on various categories, using a simple quantitative method. The results show some fragmentation within the policies, illustrating the need for a new road safety approach. The effort to reduce road traffic accidents by 50% by the year 2020 has also increased the pressure on stakeholders to meet this goal. This paper's contribution toward the 2020 goal lies in its recommendation of a new approach to road safety that will enlighten stakeholders on probable missing links in road safety.     

Quantification of surrogate safety measure to predict severity of road crashes at median openings

Traffic safety assessment is an integral part of transportation engineering. In a developing country like India, it is observed that in every four second, one person gets injured in road crashes. Moreover, at median openings which are usually uncontrolled in India, the severity of road crashes increase many fold. This is due to the fact that neither lane discipline nor priority rule is followed at the median openings. Conventionally, road crash data reports were used to study and analyze traffic safety. However, the drawback of this traditional method is that a lot of accidents need to be recorded for analysis and to draw any conclusions and take necessary corrective measures. In developing countries like India, available accident data are based on reports submitted by the police department of respective state governments. The accuracy of these accident data details is highly questionable. Therefore, in the recent times surrogate traffic safety measures are being used to analyze traffic safety. Various surrogate traffic measures like Deceleration Time (DT), Time to Collision (TTC), Post Encroachment Time (PET), etc. are being used to examine road safety. These values are based on the temporal and spatial proximity between road-users during possible conflict situation. Among all the traffic safety measures, PET is regarded as the most reliable and most commonly used indicator. Therefore, in this study, PET across different traffic volume levels at median opening area is calculated. A critical safe ratio has been introduced to better analyze the traffic safety at median opening based on minimum stopping sight distance (SSD) as per IRC: 66–1976 and speed to PET ratio. Finally clustering technique has been used to define various severity indices for probable road crashes at median opening area. For this study, data has been collected from different median openings located on six-lane divided urban roads.     

A multi-country survey for collecting and analyzing facts related to road traffic safety: Legislation,enforcement, and education for safer drivers

Road traffic safety is a crucial global objective. It is important for every country to review and improve road safety policies and strategies, based on an objective understanding of its own road traffic safety situation in the world. With the aim of contributing to such a review and understanding, this study conducted a multi-country survey to gather information about various facts related to legislation, enforcement, and education, which are designed to achieve safer drivers in nine countries, by using a common format. This paper introduces the results of the survey with a particular focus on legislation and enforcement regarding speed limit violations and red-light-running as well as on education within the driving licensing systems. It highlights variations, in terms of penalty settings and enforcement levels, in different countries; it also examines the training durations necessary for acquiring a driving license and license renewal procedures. In this way, it demonstrates the potential and significance of understanding the relative position of each country in terms of road traffic safety through an international comparison despite its limited information.     

浅谈现状城市道路改造交通疏解

道路改扩建工程施工存在工期周期长短、投资规模、人员流动等特点的影响,在施工过程中存在一系列的交通安全及市民出行便利问题,因而施工现场的交通疏解就变得尤为重要.结合深圳市桥和路及富桥大道综合整治工程为例,对城市道路改建时的交通疏解方案进行研究,希望解决城市道路改造现场对交通安全和市民出行便利程度等影响方面产生良好的作用.     

发达地区中小城市交通拥堵治理对策研究——以浙江省海宁市为例

随着城市化、机动化进程的不断推进，交通拥堵已由大城市向中小城市蔓延，发达地区中小城市交通拥堵状况已较为突出，影响城市交通的正常运行，以及市民出行的便捷性。本文以浙江省海宁市交通拥堵治理为例，系统介绍了其交通运行状况，并分析了交通拥堵产生的原因；在此基础上，针对性地提出了“加强规划引领、道路系统优化、公交优先发展、停车差异发展、慢行系统完善、堵点综合治理、加大管理力度”七大治理措施，为发达地区中小城市交通拥堵治理工作提供借鉴与参考。     

道路交通安全管理规划理论与应用研究

分析了我国近年来道路交通安全形势,结合〈中华人民共和国道路交通安全法〉的要求,对编制道路交通安全管理规划的相关理论进行了研究.研究从探讨道路交通安全系统出发,提出了道路交通安全管理规划的定义和编制规划应遵循的原则,并给出了规划思路、规划技术路线和规划内容的建议.最后结合城市介绍了规划的实际编制过程.     

Modeling road traffic fatalities in India: Smeed's law,time invariance and regional specificity

Mathematical formulations linking road traffic fatalities to vehicle ownership, regional population, and economic growth continue to be developed against the backdrop of Smeed and Andreassen models. Though a few attempts were made, Smeed's law has not been fully tested in India. Using the 1991–2009 panel data from all states, this work (a) developed the generalized Smeed and Andreassen models; (b) evaluated if traffic fatalities were impacted by structural changes; and (c) examined if – in relation to the generalized model – the individual (time and regional) models are more relevant for application. Seven models (Smeed: original, generalized, time-variant, state-variant; and Andreassen: generalized, time-variant, state-variant) were developed and tested for fit with the actual data. Results showed that the per vehicle fatality rate closely resembled Smeed's formulation. Chow-test yielded a significant F-stat, suggesting that the models for four pre-defined time-blocks are structurally different from the 19-year generalized model. The counterclockwise rotation of the log-linear form also suggested lower fatality rates. While the new government policies, reduced vehicle operating speeds, better healthcare, and improved vehicle technology could be the factors, further research is required to understand the reasons for fatality rate reductions. The intercept and gradients of the time-series models showed high stability and varied only slightly in comparison to the 19-year generalized models, thus suggesting that the latter are pragmatic for application. Regional formulations, however, indicate that they may be more relevant for studying trends and tendencies. This research illustrates the robustness of Smeed's law, and provides evidence for time-invariance but state-specificity.     

基于交通冲突理论的道路安全评价技术研究综述

基于交通冲突理论的道路安全评价技术, 是以交通冲突因素为指标的道路交通安全状态评价技术。在梳理交通冲突影响因素与安全评价基本概念的基础上, 列举了常见的道路安全评价技术应用场景; 从交叉口、高速公路、特定场景3个方面分析了交通冲突的影响因素; 从指标选取、方法选择、模型构建3个方面对道路安全评价技术进行了归纳总结。通过对现有文献的分析可以发现: 在应用场景构建时, 相比于考虑单一冲突因素, 综合考虑交通冲突影响因素, 将使得构建的交通冲突场景更接近实际情况; 在交通安全评价时, 科学选择复合指标、合理使用模糊综合评价和层次分析法构建安全评价方法, 将使构建的安全评价方法更加科学严谨。基于现有研究中存在的问题, 指出了道路安全评价技术未来的研究方向, 主要包括充分利用视频技术和互联网技术, 搭建实时、高效的安全评价模型; 验证现有道路安全评价方法在混合交通流下是否适用; 建立健全混合交通流环境下的道路交通安全评价技术标准和评价体系。      

Evaluation of a brake assistance system (BAS) using an injury severity prediction model for pedestrians

Through the years, traffic engineers and researchers have developed a variety of countermeasures to enhance pedestrian safety. Pedestrian-vehicle collisions are regarded as the most serious type of accident since they incur high fatality rates. A fundamental concept in developing effective countermeasures is to analyze pedestrian-vehicle collisions scientifically, which can identify the causes of accidents and accident severity. The objective of this study was to investigate the pedestrian safety benefit of the brake assistance system (BAS) and a functional requirement associated with BAS, namely the time needed to safely detect a pedestrian ahead. An injury severity prediction model for pedestrians was developed to systematically evaluate the BAS in this study. Ordered multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to establish a statistical model capable of predicting pedestrian injury severity. In addition to vehicle characteristics, collision speed and pedestrian characteristics were used as independent predictor variables. The outcomes of this study would be useful in directing the development of safety policies and technologies associated with pedestrian safety.     

基于驾驶模拟技术的道路行车安全性研究综述

对驾驶模拟技术在道路行车安全领域的研究及应用现状和存在的问题进行了分析。在广泛调研国内外相关文献的基础上,对驾驶模拟器进行了分类,并总结了国内外主要代表性科研型驾驶模拟器的发展历程,分析了典型驾驶模拟器的自由度、主要特征和应用领域。以“人-车-路-环境-事故”为主线,从不良驾驶行为特性分析、车辆主动安全技术研究、道路与交通设计、车辆驾驶环境以及道路行车事故研究5个方面,系统地梳理了驾驶模拟技术在国内外道路行车安全领域的应用研究现状、存在问题以及应用展望。在不良驾驶行为特性分析方面,重点研究了运用驾驶行为特性开展分心驾驶行为和疲劳驾驶行为的识别;在车辆主动安全技术研究方面,综述了运用驾驶行为开展车辆底盘一体化控制技术、安全辅助驾驶控制技术和自动驾驶接管行为的评价研究;在道路与交通设计方面,综述了道路几何和标志标线等的设计评价;在车辆驾驶环境方面,综述了不良气象、路侧景观和交通冲突等驾驶环境对驾驶行为的影响;在道路行车事故研究方面,总结了道路行车事故再现和事故影响因素分析等内容。此外,对驾驶模拟技术进行了应用展望,主要包括特殊人群的驾驶行为特性、智能网联汽车系统的测试及验证、混合交通流环境下的行车安全问题。对未来应对驾驶模拟器的有效性评价、不适性以及二次开发等问题进行探讨,以便更好地促进驾驶模拟技术的发展。      

应急车辆出行前救援路径选择的多目标规划模型

针对城市中应急车辆的救援路径优化问题,分析了基于交通信息中心的应急车辆最优路径的多目标属性,给出了随机网络中各属性的量化计算方法,以最小化出行时间,最大化行程时间可靠度为目标,考虑了通行可靠性、安全性、道路条件限制等因素,建立了应急车辆出行前最优路径选择的多目标规划模型.模型所求得的解是综合最优路径,反映了应急车辆路径选择的目标需求,克服了以往直接等同于图论中最短路径的缺陷,给出了算法,通过算例验证了模型的合理性和有效性.