考虑第三方损失的城市道路交通事故严重程度评价方法

为了适应城市道路交通事故具有较少的伤亡人数、对周边交通运行状况影响较大等特点，对该类事故的严重程度进行评价方法研究。研究构建事故地点平均行车延误计算模型。基于社会劳动价值的计算，将事故伤亡人数换算为经济指标。利用单位时间劳动力价值，将由事故引发的其他车辆的行车延误损失时间换算为经济指标。将其与非必要燃油消耗一并计入事故第三方经济损失。借鉴现有交通事故等级划分标准，采用等价折算的方法，确定各评价指标的权重值。以哈尔滨市2007~2008年事故数据为例，计算其综合评价指标。依据综合评价指标的累积频率曲线，提出城市道路交通事故严重程度的等级界定阈值。以2017年6月发生于大连市高新园区的1起城市道路交通事故为例，分别采用现行分类标准和提出的评价方法评价其严重程度。研究表明：该评价方法综合考虑了事故伤亡人数、直接经济损失并包括非必要行车延误及燃油消耗的第三方经济损失，可以充分体现该类事故的特点，并能够合理划分其严重程度。     

Trends of traffic fatalities and DNA analysis in traffic accident investigation

Although the number of traffic accidents in Japan decreases each year, little is known about the annual trends of various types of traffic accidents. In this study, we used public domain to examine annual trends in the number of fatalities caused by traffic accidents by age and type of transportation. We found that such trends differed by age group and type, and that the number of deaths due to certain types of traffic accidents is increasing.Identification by DNA analysis is now widely used in traffic accident investigations, but the public is largely unaware of the components of DNA that are investigated and the way in which the analysis is conducted. For this reason, we introduced an outline of the DNA analysis that is conducted in the traffic accident investigations and present several cases in which DNA analysis has been effectively utilized in such investigations.     

四路信号控制交叉口交通事故预测模型研究

通过对北京郊区四路信号控制交叉口进行实地调查,在获取事故数据及道路几何要素、环境要素、交通流要素等大量数据的基础上,利用相关性分析寻找出与交通事故相关性显著的影响因素,并采用AIC原则分析法确定模型形式,分别建立了四路信号控制交叉口死亡人数、受伤人数、事故次数预测模型。模型的建立有助于对交叉口进行安全分析诊断及预测交叉口的交通事故发生规律。     

Traffic problems in Southeast Asia featuring the case of Cambodia's traffic accidents involving motorcycles

This article provides the background to the special issue by reviewing the status of traffic problems in South East Asian countries, and in particular, the case of Cambodia. The “Make Roads Safe” report by the Commission for Global Road Safety (2011) confirms traffic accidents as the primary cause of youth mortality worldwide. Thus, the United Nations declared the decade from 2011 to 2020 as the “UN Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020”, promoting road safety and to reduce the number of deaths in road accidents by 2020. Furthermore, the “Sustainable Development Goals” adopted in 2015 highlight the important role of sustainable transport in tackling the exclusion of vulnerable groups. On the other hand, the World Health Organization in 2015 indicate an increase in the death rate due to traffic accidents in low-income countries since 2000. Traffic accidents were already recognized as a social problem before the 2000s in countries such as Thailand and the Philippines. At the same time, other ASEAN member states such as Vietnam and Cambodia which have experienced rapid economic growth since the 2000s are now experiencing the seriousness of traffic problems. It is said that 70% of road accidents in Thailand, Cambodia and Laos involve motorcycles and three-wheelers, but despite this situation, the regulatory framework for motorcycles remains undeveloped. In the case of Cambodia, speeding by young people remains the major cause of road deaths and this can be explained by the fact that people can now travel at a higher speed because of road developments but remaining challenges related to underdeveloped traffic legislation, and limited public awareness and knowledge of road safety are overlooked. In 2010, the Cambodian National Road Safety Action Plan 2010–2020 was drafted, aiming to halve the number of deaths in traffic accidents in 2020. However, in reality, the number of road deaths did not decrease to the level anticipated in the action plan until 2016. In this article, the authors emphasize the importance of implementing the “three Es” namely Engineering, Enforcement and Education in developing countries such as Cambodia. In particular, the authors claim that the role of education to increase people's road safety awareness is neglected compared to the other two dimensions and thus, it is highly important to raise people's road safety awareness through education among the young people.     

Factors affecting severity of motorcycle accidents on Thailand's arterial roads: Multiple correspondence analysis and ordered logistics regression approaches

Thailand was classified as a middle-income country and ranked second highest in terms of road traffic fatality rate in the world in 2015. By 2018, this ranking went up to ninth in world which may be because of various earnest safety policies implementation, supporting road safety research and establishing a road safety directing center. However, crash fatality rate has considerably remained high until recent year, indicating a clear need for further related research. Considering severity of the crashes, the majority of fatal crashes involved the motorcycle road user. Therefore, motorcycle crashes are important issues and should be considered to mitigate fatality due to immoderate proportion of motorcycle road user and motorcyclist fatality. This study aims to identify factors that influence the severity of motorcycle accidents on Thailand's arterial roads by employing ordered logistic regression and multiple correspondence analysis. The results demonstrated that although both analyses were relatively different, they provided similar results. Age, road lanes, and helmet wearing were significant factors that influenced the severity of motorcycle accidents. The results could serve as reference for planning strategies or organizing campaigns to reduce and prevent death owing to road traffic accidents, which may enhance the overall image of road traffic safety in Thailand.     

Public transportation development and traffic accident prevention in Indonesia

Traffic accidents have long been known as an iceberg for comprehending the discrepancies of traffic management and entire transportation systems. Figures detailing traffic accidents in Indonesia, as is the case in many other countries, show significantly high numbers and severity levels; these types of totals are also evident in Jakarta, the highest-populated city in the country. While the common consensus recognizes that traffic accidents are the results of three different factor types, namely, human factors, vehicle factors, and external factors (including road conditions), human factors have the strongest influence—and figures on a worldwide scale corroborate that assertion. We, however, try to pinpoint the issues of non-human factors in light of increasing traffic accidents in Indonesia, where motorbike accidents account for the majority of incidents. We then consider three important pillars of action: the development of public transportation, improvement of the road ratio, and traffic management measures.     

An analysis of alcohol and drug intake in forensic autopsy cases of traffic fatalities

The numbers of traffic accidents and its associated mortalities are decreasing every year in Japan. However, there continue to be cases of deaths and injuries caused by malicious driving including drunk driving. The forensic autopsy of traffic accident victims is important to determine the cause of death as well as the responsibility of traffic accidents. In this study, we investigated the cases of forensic autopsies related to traffic accidents, reported between 2013 and 2017, at the Department of Legal Medicine of Tokyo Women's Medical University. In this period, 22 autopsies were performed for traffic accidents; however, only 6 of them were associated with alcohol consumption. Most traffic accidents occurred during the night, and in one case, the victim was found lying on the road. Furthermore, there were 4 cases in which drugs in the blood or urine of the victim were detected; however, the actual relationship with the cause of death and traffic accident was not identified. It was also found necessary to take measures against pedestrian drinking. Moreover, only a few drugs led to a decrease in driving ability, highlighting the necessity of further data is necessary to provide insights into the type of drug consumed and the cause of accident.     

The future of road safety: A worldwide perspective

Estimates by the World Health Organization suggest that, on a yearly basis, road crashes kill 1.25 million people—nearly 3400 road fatalities per day—and injure up to 50 million. Traffic injuries are not equally spread over the world, however; some countries are hit harder than others, and the chance of being killed in a road crash depends on where one lives. Almost 90% of all traffic casualties occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Globally, the number of fatalities per 100,000 population (mortality rate) ranges from less than 3 to almost 40. The rate is less than 9 in high-income countries (HIC) but averages around 20 in LMIC, with the African region demonstrating the highest rate (26.6). While road safety trends have been positive in HIC over the last few decades, trends in LMIC are not telling a positive story: road fatalities are expected to increase to almost 2 million road fatalities per year by 2020.The United Nations has adopted several resolutions on road safety and proposes actions to tackle the global road safety crisis. Considering the current level of road safety to be unacceptable, the UN has taken several initiatives. One effort, the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020, has generated substantial activity around the world over the last couple of years. Furthermore, it is very encouraging that the UN included road safety in the Sustainable Development Goals that it laid out in September 2015. Road safety is part of the public health agenda and the urban development agenda. Measured in “real actions,” however, the responses so far from the overall global community and individual countries do not suggest that we are already on the right track to bringing down the death toll on roads.The future of road safety is uncertain and definitely not the same for all regions of the world. Countries with a mature road safety approach and an ambition to make further progress are expected to move in the direction of a pro-active approach: a Safe System approach. It is reported that many LMIC, meanwhile, are on the brink of designing road safety strategies and implementing action plans. The international community is willing to support LMIC, but LMIC cannot simply copy successful HIC strategies because local circumstances differ. The principles of successful HIC strategies are applicable, but the priorities and action plans should take root in and align with local conditions.     

日本交通安全对策的借鉴与启示

尽管日本的机动车保有量和交通事故数量高于我国,但日本交通事故死亡人数远远低于我国。论文在综合介绍日本道路交通安全对策的基础上,将交通事故发生数量和交通事故造成的死亡数量与日本的乘用车保有量进行回归分析,并以虚拟变量的形式考虑了交通安全相关对策对交通事故量和死亡人数的影响。从分析结果可以看出,交通事故的发生量和死亡人数与乘用车的保有量有很大相关性,但是交通安全的相关对策对交通事故的降低和死亡人数的减少有重大影响,这对我国交通安全管理措施的制定和完善提供了积极的借鉴和启示。     

Did the COVID-19 pandemic influence traffic fatalities in 2020? A presentation of first findings

The year 2020 was an extraordinary year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic resulted in lockdowns and confinements globally and emptier streets and roads. Traffic patterns and traffic composition (modal split) changed considerably during the pandemic and as a consequence the number of people killed and injured in road crashes. The aim of this research is to present the number of road fatalities and the fatality rates (fatalities per kilometer driven) in 2020 and to compare these numbers and rates with the previous period (2017–2019), a baseline. An online questionnaire was distributed among the forty countries that are members of the International Safety Data and Analysis Group (IRTAD) in the International Transport Forum and 24 were in a position to submit the requested information before the 1st of June 2021. The questionnaire requested information on the monthly number of fatalities on a national level for four years, (2017–2020) and on kilometres driven. The number of fatalities in 2020 was 17.3% lower in the 24 participating countries compared with the baseline period and the reduction is almost seven times higher than annually in these countries in the period 2010–2019. The reduction took place in spring 2020 and not so much in the remainder of the year. The highest reduction were measured among young (0–17) and elderly people (75 and older), with public transport and on motorways. With the exception of one country, reductions in fatalities have been measured in all countries, however we observe major differences between countries. Regarding fatality rates (fatalities per vehicle kilometer travelled), we also observe major differences between countries and not a stable pattern over 2020 and a remarkable increase in April 2020, the month with the largest fatality reduction. Countries with severe COVID-19 restrictions do not necessarily demonstrate the greatest reductions in road fatalities. It is recommended to carry our further analysis to find explanations for the results and for the differences between the countries.     

融合PCA-LPP与DBSCAN的道路交通事故分类及风险等级预测方法

道路交通事故是全球范围内造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失的重大问题之一,通过对道路交通事故进行分类和风险等级预测,能够锁定高风险车辆,以减小事故的发生和人员伤亡的概率。交通事故往往由环境、天气、道路条件、路段设施等多维特征相互作用形成,现有的事故影响分析方法缺乏对交通事故数据的综合研究。为此本文提出1种交通事故分类模型,在传统PCA算法的基础上通过衡量各等级数据间的相似性对数据集进行二次降维,采用改进后降维算法PCA-LPP处理大规模交通事故数据集;利用DBSCAN算法对事故数据划分风险区域,根据迭代训练出的各等级空间对模拟车辆环境进行风险划分。试验结果表明：在大规模交通数据降至不同维度的对比实验中,证明PCA-LPP算法使降维后的特征与样本的类别相关程度更高;同时,利用基于密度的DBSCAN聚类算法处理复杂且伴有偶发性的交通事故数据时,算法的纯度为0.942 9、兰德指数为0.946 2,互信息指数为0.678 4,与K-means、谱聚类等传统算法结果相比,DBSCAN算法的各项评估指标均高于其他算法,从分类效果图发现该模型减少了噪声数据的影响;最后,通过消融实验验证了带有二次降维的PCA-LPP算法的各项评估指标均为最高。其预测结果的混淆矩阵显示该模型对各风险等级的精确率分别为85.77%、70.78%、80.65%,验证了模型的有效性与实用性。     

Motorcycle fatalities in Malaysia

Malaysia has the highest road fatality risk (per 100,000 population) among the ASEAN countries and more than 50% of the road accident fatalities involve motorcyclists. This study has collected and analysed data from the police, government authorities, and national and international research institutes. Only fatality data are used due to the severe underreporting of severe injuries (up to 600%) and slight injuries (up to 1400%). The analysis reveals that the highest numbers of motorcycle fatalities occur in rural locations (61%), on primary roads (62%) and on straight road sections (66%). The majority are riders (89%), 16 to 20 years old (22.5%), and 90% of the motorcycles are privately owned. Of those involved in fatal accidents, 75% of the motorcyclists wear helmets, and 35% do not have proper licences. The highest number of fatalities by type of collision is ‘angular or side’ (27.5%). Although fatal motorcyclist crashes mostly involve ‘passenger cars’ (28%), motorcyclists are responsible for 50% of the collisions either by crashing singly (25%) or with other motorcyclists (25%). While male motorcyclists predominate (94% of fatalities), female motorcyclists aged 31 to 70, possessing ‘no licence’, not wearing helmets and travelling during the day, account for a higher percentage than male motorcyclists. Malaysia must acquire more motorcycle exposure data and establish an injury recording system and database based on hospital-records. To reduce motorcycle fatalities, it first has to understand why young male motorcyclists are prone to fatal crashes in the evenings and on weekends on rural primary roads, especially on straight road sections.     

International analysis on social and personal determinants of traffic violations and accidents employing logistic regression with elastic net regularization

While the number of road fatalities is declining in developed countries, it is still increasing globally, especially in middle-and low-income countries. In addition to the driver's individual awareness and attitude toward traffic safety, various factors such as the development of road infrastructure and the legal system may have a significant influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Thus, it is essential to consider these factors to enhance traffic safety and achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Targets of 3.6.In this study, we developed an Elastic Net Regression model to evaluate the factors that influence an individual's traffic violations and accidents based on an international questionnaire on traffic safety attitude, country fact survey data on traffic regulations, and other statistical databases. As a result, it was revealed that: i) In addition to country-level factors, the individual's attributes and attitudes toward traffic safety have an influence on the experience of traffic violations and accidents. and ii) While the same variables regarding individual attributes and attitudes are selected for both traffic violations and accidents, the selected variables relating to country factors differ between violations and accidents.     

Traffic risk behavior and perceptions of Thai motorcyclists: A case study

This study aimed to investigate Thai motorcyclists' traffic risk behavior and their perceptions of it, information of value in the design and implementation of public health policies and campaigns for the reduction of road injuries. Data was collected by a self-administered questionnaire completed by 399 motorcyclists in Muang Krabi district, Krabi province, Thailand. The questionnaire focused on the respondents' perceptions of general traffic risks and the specific risks at 3 identified hazardous sites. The results of the survey indicated that the correct fastening of helmet straps had a relationship with responsible traffic risk perceptions.     

我国弱势交通参与者交通安全现状及问题分析

对我国交通中的弱势交通参与者进行界定,总结了目前我国城市交通中存在的一些有关弱势交通参与者交通安全方面的问题,详细分析了过去15年我国弱势交通参与者道路交通事故的现状与特征,研究了导致弱势交通参与者交通死亡的主要原因,并提出改善其交通安全状况的对策建议。     

公路隧道运营典型风险辨识

为加强对公路隧道运营风险的辨识、改善和优化公路隧道运营安全，降低重大隧道事故对人员伤亡、隧道结构、设备和经济收益的损失，通过隧道事故调研和大数据技术，收集近些年在全国范围内发生的802起公路隧道事故，对公路隧道自身特性和隧道事故的时间、空间、类型、诱因等特征进行分析。研究结果表明： 1)外界因素对隧道事故影响较大，在高温和车流量较大的环境下，事故发生较多； 2)特长隧道和长隧道的事故数远高于短隧道和中隧道； 3)小型车是隧道内发生事故的主要车型，事故原因多是驾驶员违规驾驶，事故类型多为追尾事故； 4)火灾事故的诱因多为车辆自身故障，其中危化品泄露多为易燃液体泄露。     

道路交通事故痕迹鉴定确定肇事车辆

道路交通事故检验鉴定为公安机关交通管理部门的事故处理提供科学、专业的技术支持。检查和核实道路交通事故的影响是对道路交通事故技术评估的基本方法。已成为解决许多事故问题的重要依据。本文根据道路交通事故痕迹鉴定的实际情况,针对公安机关交通管理部门涉及复杂、疑难、特殊技术问题的痕迹鉴定情况,提出了针对性的解决方案。     

低能见度水平下行人交通事故严重程度及异质性分析

为探究在低能见度水平下影响行人事故伤害严重程度的因素, 并分析可能存在的异质性。以某市6 405起行人-机动车交通事故为研究对象, 分别研究高、低能见度水平下机动车-行人事故中行人伤害严重程度影响因素, 建立均值异质性的随机参数Logit模型并通过弹性分析定量分析显著变量对行人受伤情况的影响程度。结果表明, 高、低能见度下影响行人伤害严重程度的因素存在明显差异。(1)低能见度情况下男性驾驶员、高龄行人、卡车、沥青路面、凌晨、较暗的照明条件等因素会增加行人伤害严重程度。(2)低能见度情况下卡车和凌晨这2个因素具有随机参数特征, 分别使行人死亡的概率增加了4.39%和2.67%;此外, 当事故涉及卡车和26~35岁行人这2个因素时会增大行人死亡的概率; 而当夜间有路灯照明与凌晨这2个因素共同作用时行人死亡的可能性降低。(3)高能见度情况下未发现具有异质性的影响因素, 但发现男性行人和摩托车等因素会增大事故严重程度; 而驾驶员年龄、沥青路面、周末和地形等因素对事故严重程度并没有显著影响。      

处理道路外交通事故的相关问题及对策分析

公安机关交通管理部门在办理道路外交通事故时,要同处理道路交通事故一样,通过事故现场调查,最后出具《道路交通事故认定书》或《道路交通事故证明》,交强险及道路交通事故社会救助金对道路外交通事故同样适用。在事故现场调查过程中,可以根据需要采取行政强制措施,但涉及与道路外交通事故有关的"违法"行为的行政处罚及追究刑事责任方面已超出公安机关交通管理部门的职权范围,应当及时移送有关部门处理。     

基于典型非机动车事故的自动驾驶汽车测试场景构建方法研究

基于交通事故卷宗、交通事故视频信息数据,研究机非混行交通环境下典型交通事故形态,构建了面向机非混行交通环境下的自动驾驶汽车测试场景,旨在针对我国较为特殊的机非混行环境下的自动驾驶汽车的测试场景及测试评价方法提供参考。本文首先分析了自动驾驶测试场景的构建需求,建立交通事故数据筛选标准,得到133例可用于构建自动驾驶汽车测试场景的机动车与非机动车交通事故数据集;其次基于《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》行驶要求,对133例交通事故的发生地点、车辆行为、道路类型、环境光线等方面进行解构分析;最后通过聚类分析,建立了5类典型的自动驾驶测试场景模型,并分析了不同场景模型的关键要素,为实际道路测试提供理论指导。