Thermal exchanges at air-water interfacies and reproduction of temperature vertical profiles in water columns

For a 3-D eutrophication-diffusion macromodel of the central part of the Venice Lagoon, air-water heat fluxes are computed interpolating, through Fourier series expansion, meteoclimatic variables averaged over a thirty years survey. Also reproduced with the same interpolation methods, is the daily fluctuation of incident light as well as the annual variation of the photoperiod.With an interative procedure temperature values, to be assigned at each grid's point and corresponding to each hour of a reference year, are computed also accounting for the thermal inertia of water columns of varying depths. By statistical examination of temperature vertical profiles, depth varying diffusivities are also estimated, which enables, without assumption of an instantaneous mixing, the reproduction of heat diffusion from the surface to the bottom water cells.Procedures, preliminary refined and verified for a one-dimensional vertical system input, are next implemented on a three-dimensional submodel of reduced size provided of “open boundaries”: this last submodel, under a continuous input of energy and of matter is seen to attain a steady states as well as to be capable of simulating regime conditions. A further validation is performed, on a submodel of 43 × 47 × 20 cells, encompassing a limited portion of the macromodel and presenting the actual lagoon bathymetry.Macromodel's seasonalisation so achieved, enables for a more correct simulation of the periodical behaviour of light and of temperature, forcing functions governing the eutrophication phenomena.     

变分法的参数约束估计法(英文)

The accuracy of parameter estimation is critical when digitally modeling a ship. A parameter estimation method with constraints was developed, based on the variational method. Performance functions and constraint equations in the variational method are constructed by analyzing input and output equations of the system. The problem of parameter estimation was transformed into a problem of least squares estimation. The parameter estimation equation was analyzed in order to get an optimized estimation of parameters based on the Lagrange multiplication operator. Simulation results showed that this method is better than the traditional least squares estimation, producing a higher precision when identifying parameters. It has very important practical value in areas of application such as system identification and parameter estimation.     

Ability of a “minimum” microbial food web model to reproduce response patterns observed in mesocosms manipulated with N and P, glucose, and Si

We compared an idealised mathematical model of the lower part of the pelagic food web to experimental data from a mesocosm experiment in which the supplies of mineral nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous), bioavailable dissolved organic carbon (BDOC, as glucose), and silicate were manipulated. The central hypothesis of the experiment was that bacterial consumption of BDOC depends on whether the growth rate of heterotrophic bacteria is limited by organic-C or by mineral nutrients. In previous work, this hypothesis was examined qualitatively using a conceptual food web model. Here we explore the extent to which a “simplest possible” mathematical version of this conceptual model can reproduce the observed dynamics. The model combines algal–bacterial competition for mineral nutrients (phosphorous) and accounts for alternative limitation of bacterial and diatom growth rates by organic carbon and by silicate, respectively. Due to a slower succession in the diatom–copepod, compared to the flagellate–ciliate link, silicate availability increases the magnitude and extends the duration of phytoplankton blooms induced by mineral nutrient addition. As a result, Si interferes negatively with bacterial consumption of BDOC consumption by increasing and prolonging algal–bacterial competition for mineral nutrients. In order to reproduce the difference in primary production between Si and non-Si amended treatments, we had to assume a carbon overflow mechanism in diatom C-fixation. This model satisfactorily reproduced central features observed in the mesocosm experiment, including the dynamics of glucose consumption, algal, bacterial, and mesozooplankton biomass. While the parameter set chosen allows the model to reproduce the pattern seen in bacterial production, we were not able to find a single set of parameters that simultaneously reproduces both the level and the pattern observed for bacterial production. Profound changes in bacterial morphology and stoichiometry were reported in glucose-amended mesocosms. Our “simplest possible” model with one bacterial population with fixed stoichiometry cannot reproduce this, and we suggest that a more elaborate representation of the bacterial community is required for more accurate reproduction of bacterial production.     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in a coastal zone

A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters.In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model.     

A box model approach for a long-term assessment of estuarine eutrophication, Szczecin Lagoon, southern Baltic

We develop a layered “box model” to evaluate the major effects of estuarine eutrophication of the Szczecin lagoon which can be compared with integrating measures (chlorophyll a (Chl a), sediment burial, sediment oxygen consumption (SOC), input and output of total nutrient loads) and use it to hindcast the period 1950–1996 (the years when major increase in nutrient discharges by the Oder River took place). The following state variables are used to describe the cycling of the limiting nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus): phytoplankton (Phy), labile and refractory detritus (D_N, D_Nref, D_P, D_Pref), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and oxygen (O₂). The three layers of the model include two water layers and one sediment layer. Decrease of the carrying capacity with respect to the increased supply of organic matter of the system with advancing eutrophication over the period studied is parameterized by an exponential decrease of the sediment nitrogen fluxes with increasing burial, simulating changing properties from moderate to high accumulating sediments. The seasonal variation as well as the order of magnitude of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton stocks in the water column remains in agreement with recent observations. Calculated annual mean values of nutrient burial of 193 mmol N m⁻² a⁻¹ and 23 mmol P m⁻² a⁻¹ are supported by observed values from geological sediment records. Estimated DIN remineralization in the sediments between 100 and 550 mmol N m⁻² a⁻¹ corresponds to SOC measurements. Simulated DIP release up to 60 mmol P m⁻² a⁻¹ corresponds to recent measurements. The conceptual framework presented here can be used for a sequential box model approach connecting small estuaries like the Szczecin lagoon and the open sea, and might also be connected with river box models.     

Nutrient cycling and primary production in the marine systems of the Arctic and Antarctic

Primary production events in both the Arctic and the Antarctic are highly localized. Carbon-14 incubations that did not account for this caused antarctic primary production estimates to be revised too far downwards from the historic view of high productivity. The primary production regime in the Arctic is even more heterogeneous than in the Antarctic. Arctic primary production rates are in the process of being revised upwards because of a better spatial and temporal distribution of incubation experiments and a re-awakening of interest in estimating new production from the distribution of chemical variables. Similarly, recent examination of temporal changes in nitrate concentrations and recognition of the importance of ice-edge blooms has caused antarctic primary productivity to be revised upwards. In both the Arctic and the Antarctic, the ratio of “new” to total primary production is high, and neglect of this fact can lead to an underestimation of the potential that these regions have for influencing global cycles of bioactive chemicals. Some recent data on temporal changes in nitrate from Fram Strait emphasize the poor state of our knowledge by suggesting an unexpectedly high “new” production rate of 1 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ for a 35 day experiment that encountered an early Phaeocystis bloom. Chemical distributions suggest that new production over the shelf seas that border the Polar Basin is about 50 g Cm⁻² yr⁻¹.The shelves in the Arctic Ocean's marginal and adjacent seas comprise 25% of the total global continental shelf. These extensive shallow regions have much higher rates of primary production than the Polar Basin and may be globally significant sites of denitrification. Globally significant silica deposition could occur on these shelves or on the adjacent slopes.Because of the differences in geomorphology and stratification, global warming is likely to increase primary production in the Arctic and will probably decrease antarctic primary production.In addition to sharing high ratios of “new” to total primary production, high ammonium concentrations occur in the Arctic and Antarctic. It is possible that these accumulations arise from a strong repression of nitrification at low temperatures.     

Effects of surfactant on the growth of wind waves — Simultaneous observations with optical and microwave sensors

The growth of wind waves was investigated in a circulating tank over slick and “clean” surfaces. The slick surface was produced through the aging of seawater, and the “clean” surface was obtained by overflowing. Water-surface slopes and microwave backscattering were simultaneously measured with an optical slope gauge and a continuous-wave radar, respectively. Dependencies of the mean-square slope and the radar backscattered power on the wind-friction velocity over these two surfaces were found to be different. A delayed growth of ripples over the slick surface was identified from optical and microwave measurements. The suppression of ripples by surface slicks was most significant at low winds up to the wind-friction velocity of 15 cm s⁻¹. A reduction of −18 dB in the mean-square slope is found at the wind-friction velocity of 11 cm s⁻¹. The exponent of power-law dependence of radar cross section on wind-friction velocity over the slick surface was much larger than that over the “clean” surface. The radar backscattering from the slick surface was reduced by −40 dB at light winds and saturated at high winds with the wind-friction velocities smaller than 11 cm s⁻¹ and larger than 24 cm s⁻¹, respectively.     

Configuration estimation method for preliminary cost of ships based on engineering bills of materials

Ships are complex engineering structures that are designed and built on the basis of technical experience. A shipowner will often be required to estimate the price of a new ship on the basis of the value of comparable ships identified in trade journals. Similarly, shipbuilders are often interested in estimating approximate costs during the tendering phase in order to determine whether a ship is likely to be competitive for a particular order. Thus, when designing a ship prior to having obtained a contract, one of the most important processes is the estimation of approximate costs, including materials, associated labor, and overhead. During this preliminary design phase, the design is temporary and subject to change based on variations in the shipowner’s requirements. Hence, quick and flexible responses are key during this period and an integral aspect of the competitive powers of the shipbuilder. Given this environment, we propose a “configuration estimation method.” Our method is based on the configuration design method that is widely used in three-dimensional (3D) computer aided design (CAD) systems. We assume that a product lifecycle management system is furnished and that the cost is then estimated via the configuration of the ship, using an engineering bill of materials (E-BOM). In referring to the E-BOM, we utilize technical parametric costs derived from similar ships built previously. Using the proposed method, it is possible to obtain an accurate list of materials from the quotation, as well as a detailed work assessment for labor costs and overhead rates, so that reliable cost estimates can be generated quickly and flexibly. To demonstrate the practical applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method, we implement the prototype of a shipbuilding configuration estimation system by using a Microsoft Structured Query Language database and an E-BOM from AVEVA Marine version 12.01, which is a representative CAD system for shipbuilding.     

Multivariate assimilation in MERCATOR project: New statistical parameters from forecast error estimation

The new operational prototype of Mercator (french Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment contribution) is composed of a North Atlantic primitive equation ocean model OPA (Ocean Parallel Algorithm between 20°S and 70°N, [Madec, G., P. Delecluse, M. Imbard and C. Lévy (1998). OPA8.1 ocean general circulation model reference manuel. Notes du pôle de modélisation IPSL. n°11: 91p]) and of a multivariate and multidata assimilation scheme [De Mey, P. and M. Benkiran (2002). “A multivariate reduced-order optimal interpolation method and its application in Mediterranean basin-scale circulation.” Ocean Forecasting : Conceptual basis and application, Pinardi, N., Springer Verlag.] This system has already given some significant improvements from previous Mercator configurations (M. Benkiran, personal communication). However some biases on ocean state still remain in the tropics where the reduced-order optimal interpolation scheme is suspected to be ill-parameted in the model forecast error. Indeed the guess error covariance matrix is decomposed into an error variance value and a spatio-temporal correlation function which are assumed to have some “good” properties (spatial homogeneity of the correlation function, constant ratio between signal and error variance). This study shows how we can use ensemble methods to validate these assumptions. We can see that the correlation function can reach negative values locally, mostly in regions of high variability contradictory with the homogeneous hypothesis. The reduced space used in the operational configuration is based on the signal seasonal Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). An empirical relationship between signal and error variance has been set and the correlation function is the same on every dimension of the reduced space. By projection of the estimated guess error variance onto the reduced space, we find a repartition of this quantity quite different to what was set in the system. The error statistics is found to be inhomogeneous compared to hypothesis made in the assimilation scheme. These two new parameters tested separately in the assimilation scheme gives significant improvements of the forecast and analysis results. This is particularly obvious in the tropics. But relationship between signal and error statistics (as assumed in the optimal interpolation) is found to be complex.     

Whitecap coverage in coastal environment for steady and unsteady wave field conditions

Breaking waves represent a “key” parameter for many applications involved with a large number of environmental phenomena. In particular, it is well recognized that the whitecap cover induced by breaking waves allows substantial enhancement of heat, momentum, gas and particle transfer at the air–sea interface. A large number of studies were conducted during the last decades on the variation of the whitecap fraction, commonly noted W. The results presented in this paper deal with the evolution of the whitecap coverage in coastal zone. In such areas, the wave field is often unsteady with an important variety of sea state developments. The present analysis is based on an extensive series of data obtained during an experimental campaign which took place on the Mediterranean coast in 2001. The results allow observation of the influence of the sea state conditions of the wave field on the whitecap coverage. In addition, this paper confirms the occurrence of a peak in the variations of the whitecap fraction with the wave age for coastal areas as suggested by Lafon et al. [Lafon, C., Piazzola, J., Forget, P., Le Calvé, O. and Despiau, S., 2004. Analysis of the variations of the whitecap fraction as measured in a coastal zone. Boundary-Layer Meteorol., 111: 339-360.]. A wave age dependent model for the whitecap fraction is then proposed, which takes into account both the wind and the wave influence, and hence, is characteristics of the different sea state conditions.     

船体分段吊装眼板有限元细网格快速生成方法

提出一种船体分段吊装眼板有限元细网格快速生成方法,在粗网格基础上对吊装眼板几何模型进行网格细化。建立吊装眼板有限元网格细化流程,确定细化区域,划分细化区域,控制节点间距,生成细网格,并进行实例分析。结果表明,该方法可较大地提高船体分段吊装眼板的建模效率。     

An approach to estimation of near-surface turbulence and CO2 transfer velocity from remote sensing data

The air–sea CO₂ exchange is primarily determined by the boundary-layer processes in the near-surface layer of the ocean since it is a water-side limited gas. As a consequence, the interfacial component of the CO₂ transfer velocity can be linked to parameters of turbulence in the near-surface layer of the ocean. The development of remote sensing techniques provides a possibility to quantify the dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity on a global scale. In this work, the dissipation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and its patchiness has been linked to the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity with a boundary-layer type model. Field observations of upper ocean turbulence, laboratory studies, and the direct CO₂ flux measurements are used to validate the model. The model is then forced with the TOPEX POSEIDON wind speed and significant wave height to demonstrate its applicability for estimating the distribution of the near-surface turbulence dissipation rate and gas transfer velocity for an extended (decadal) time period. A future version of this remote sensing algorithm will incorporate directional wind/wave data being available from QUIKSCAT, a now-cast wave model, and satellite heat fluxes. The inclusion of microwave imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) will provide additional information on the fractional whitecap coverage and sea surface turbulence patchiness.     

基于加权矢量神经网络的辐射源识别方法

现有的很多分类识别方法包括基于专家系统的方法[1]、基于贝叶斯理论的方法、基于模糊模式识别的方法[2]、基于最近邻的方法[3]、基于人工神经网络的方法[3]等等在辐射源识别中都有比较成功的应用,但这些方法一般都针对测量参数为标量形式的测量值进行处理,在一定程度上解决了由于参数测量误差所引起的辐射源识别问题,对于误差的另一种情形,即测量参数为区间类型模糊值的情况讨论却较少,文献提出了一种基于模糊IF-Then规则的神经网络算法,给出了能够处理模糊输入的神经网络体系结构,同时给出了一种基于代价函数的学习算法,其代价函数由实际模糊输出和无模糊输出决定,通过学习该网络能够实现模糊输入到模糊输出的非线性映射。     

An idealized model of interaction between fronds of the large seaweed Durvillaea antarctica

The effect of interactions between individual fronds in a bed of the large intertidal seaweed Durvillaea antarctica, when forced by breaking waves, is studied using a computational model. The model simulates the response of a seaweed bed using a sequence of connected oscillators which are excited by a propagating forcing function representing a breaking ocean wave. Two new facets of the interplay between seaweeds and hydrodynamics are considered: (i) wave forcing due to breaking waves is often not sinusoidal in the rocky intertidal zone and (ii) a frond interaction term is included. The addition of frond interaction reduces the maximum loading on individuals within the bed by around 30% using estimated biomechanical parameters. The rate of change of the loading on the holdfast (equivalent to the “jerk”) is affected in a similar or greater fashion.     

Estimating salinity to complement observed temperature: 1. Gulf of Mexico

This paper and its companion [Thacker, W.C., Sindlinger, L., 2007-this issue. Estimating salinity to complement observed temperature: 2. Northwestern Atlantic. Journal of Marine Systems. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.06.007.] document initial efforts in a project with the goal of developing capability for estimating salinity on a region-by-region basis for the world oceans. The primary motivation for this project is to provide information for correcting salinity, and thus density, when assimilating expendable-bathythermograph (XBT) data into numerical simulations of oceanic circulation, while a secondary motivation is to provide information for calibrating salinity from autonomous profiling floats. Empirical relationships between salinity and temperature, which can be identified from archived conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) data, provide the basis for the salinity estimates.The Gulf of Mexico was chosen as the first region to explore for several reasons: (1) It's geographical separation from the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean makes it a “small ocean” characterised by a deep central basin surrounded by a substantial continental shelf. (2) The archives contain a relatively large number of CTD data that can be used to establish empirical relationships. (3) The sharp fronts associated with the Loop Current and its rings, which separate water with different thermal and haline characteristics, pose a challenge for estimating salinity. In spite of the shelf and the fronts, the relationship between salinity and temperature was found to be sufficiently regular that a single empirical model could be used to estimate salinity on each pressure surface for the entire Gulf for all seasons. In and below the thermocline, root-mean-square estimation errors are small — less than 0.02 psu for pressures greater than 400 dbar, corresponding to potential density errors of less than 0.015 kg/m³. Errors for estimates nearer to the surface can be an order of magnitude larger.     

Organic carbon budget for the Gulf of Bothnia

We calculated input of organic carbon to the unproductive, brackish water basin of the Gulf of Bothnia from rivers, point sources and the atmosphere. We also calculated the net exchange of organic carbon between the Gulf of Bothnia and the adjacent marine system, the Baltic Proper. We compared the input with sinks for organic carbon; permanent incorporation in sediments and mineralization and subsequent evasion of CO₂ to the atmosphere. The major fluxes were riverine input (1500 Gg C year^− 1), exchange with the Baltic Proper (depending on which of several possible DOC concentration differences between the basins that was used in the calculation, the flux varied between an outflow of 466 and an input of 950 Gg C year^− 1), sediment burial (1100 Gg C year^− 1) and evasion to the atmosphere (3610 Gg C year^− 1). The largest single net flux was the emission of CO₂ to the atmosphere, mainly caused by bacterial mineralization of organic carbon. Input and output did not match in our budget which we ascribe uncertainties in the calculation of the exchange of organic carbon between the Gulf of Bothnia and the Baltic Proper, and the fact that CO₂ emission, which in our calculation represented 1 year (2002) may have been overestimated in comparison with long-term means. We conclude that net heterotrophy of the Gulf of Bothnia was due to input of organic carbon from both the catchment and from the Baltic Proper and that the future degree of net heterotrophy will be sensible to both catchment export of organic carbon and to the ongoing eutrophication of the Baltic Proper.     

Biological effects of Mississippi River nitrogen on the northern gulf of Mexico—a review and synthesis

The Mississippi River currently delivers approximately 1.82 Tg N year⁻¹ (1.3×10¹¹ mol N year⁻¹) to the northern Gulf of Mexico. This large input dominates the biological processes of the region. The “new” nitrogen from the river stimulates high levels of phytoplankton production which in turn support high rates of bacterial production, protozoan and metazoan grazing, and fisheries production. A portion of the particulate organic matter produced in the pelagic food web sinks out of the euphotic zone where it contributes to high rates of oxygen consumption in the bottom waters of the inner shelf, resulting in the development of an extensive zone of hypoxia each summer. In spite of the significance of this river system to the coastal ocean of the northern gulf, we do not have an adequate understanding of the inputs, processing and ultimate fates of river nitrogen. Here we review available literature on this important system and propose a conceptual model showing how biological processes evolve in the river plume between the point of discharge and the point where plume waters are fully diluted by mixing with oceanic water.     

浮筏系统隔振性能的功率流评价指标

文章采用刚度为常数、阻尼随频率变化的Bush单元来模拟实际的5-200Hz的隔振器的垂向机械阻抗特性。通过有限元频率响应计算得到了浮筏隔振系统的结点响应信息,在此基础上采用隔振器机械阻抗方程求得隔振器两端的受力值,进而代入功率流表达式得到了系统的输入输出功率流。对系统输入输出的加速度响应和功率流进行了对比分析,结果表明了采用功率流来评价隔振系统的优劣更能反映隔振系统的实际隔振效果。采用功率流作为隔振系统隔振效果的评价标准是合适的,而且在某些方面要优于采用单一的加速度(速度)响应作为评价指标的评价体系。     

Transport of radionuclides by sea-ice and dense-water formed in western Kara Sea flaw leads

A transport assessment of particle-bound and dissolved artificial radionuclides (¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu) by sea-ice and dense-water formed in western Kara Sea flaw leads close to the Novaya Zemlya dumping sites is presented in this study. We both performed a “best estimate” based on available data, and a “maximum assessment” relying on simulated constant releases of 1 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu from individual dumping bays. The estimates are based on a combination of (i) the content of particulate matter in sea-ice; (ii) analytical data and numerical simulations of radionuclide concentrations in shelf surface deposits, suspended particulate matter (SPM), and the dissolved phase; and (iii) estimates of lead-ice and dense-water formation rates as well as modeling results of local ice drift pathways. In the “best estimate” case, 2.90 GBq ¹³⁷Cs and 0.51 GBq ^239,240Pu attached to sea-ice sediments can be exported from the lead areas toward the central Arctic basin. The radionuclide burden of the annually formed dense lead water in the “best estimate” amounts to 4.68 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and 0.014 TBq ^239,240Pu. In the “maximum assessment”, potential export-rates of ice-particle bound ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu toward the central Arctic would amount to 0.64 and 0.16 TBq, respectively. As much as ≈900 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and ≈6.75 TBq ^239,240Pu could be annually taken up by 34.75 dense-water rejected in the lead area. Assuming the (unlikely) instantaneous release of the total ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu inventories (≈1 PBq and 10 TBq, respectively) from the Novaya Zemlya dumping sites into the dissolved phase, the dense lead water locally formed during one winter season could take up ≈90% of the Cs and ≈68% of the Pu released.     

一种小型潜器模型参数估计方法与实验研究

潜器的位置控制性能对深海采矿取样过程有很大影响.本文针对小型潜器位置控制的需要,研究其动态模型参数辨识方法.以机械能守恒定理为基础,讨论了机械能增量在正交坐标下的分配量与外力作功的能量转换关系.利用这一关系与最小二乘法,以潜器纵向运动动态灰箱模型参数估计为例,建立了基于能量转换的潜器模型参数估计方程,并开展了实验研究.将海洋水下工程手册经验公式的计算结果与实验结果对比,验证了本方法的有效性.本方法物理意义明显,适用于作机械运动的线性与非线性系统辨识.