A model of the travel to work limits of parents

This paper considers the length of time that parents are willing to travel to an existing or new job. Using data for over 12,000 parents it finds that many characteristics were associated with being less likely to be willing to travel to work for at least an hour (roundtrip). These include: being a women, those out of work, having children under 5, being a lone parent and using formal childcare. Professionals and associate professions were more willing to travel for longer periods. In terms of location, those in accessible small towns and rural areas were willing to travel more than those in larger urban areas and those in remote rural areas willing to travel most. Policy implications are also set out.     

Errors in dynamical fields inferred from oceanographic cruise data: Part I. The impact of observation errors and the sampling distribution

Diagnostic studies of ocean dynamics based on the analysis of oceanographic cruise data are usually quite sensitive to observation errors, to the station distribution and to the synopticity of the sampling. Here we present an error analysis of the first two sources. The third one is evaluated in Part II of this work (J. Mar. Sys. (2005), this issue). For observed variables and those linearly related to them, we use the Optimal Statistical Interpolation (OI) formulation. For variables which are not linearly related to observed variables (e.g., the vertical velocity), we carry out numerical experiments in a consistent way with OI statistics. Best results are obtained when some kind of scale selection or spatial filtering is applied in order to suppress small scales that cannot be properly resolved by the station distribution.The formulation is first applied to a high resolution (SeaSoar) sampling aimed to the recovery of mesoscale features in a region of large spatial variability (noise-to-signal fraction of the order of 0.002). Fractional errors (rms error divided by the standard deviation of the field) are estimated in about 2% for dynamic height and between 4% and 20% for geostrophic vorticity and vertical velocity. For observed variables, observation errors and sampling limitations are shown to contribute in similar amounts to total errors. For derived variables, sampling errors are by far the dominant contribution. For less dense samplings (e.g., equally spaced CTD stations), fractional errors are about 6% for dynamic height and between 15% and 30% for geostrophic vorticity and vertical velocity. For this sampling strategy, errors of all variables are mostly associated with sampling limitations.     

The efficiency of congestion charging: Some lessons from cost–benefit analyses

This paper addresses methodological issues in cost–benefit analysis (CBA) regarding congestion charging schemes. Despite suspicion on the reality of travel time savings, it is argued that these savings are a conservative value of surplus gained from a congestion scheme. The methodology of measurement of travel time reliability is not yet stabilised, but the literature review suggests that it may take a growing share of benefits in the future. Sensitivity tests performed on the London and Stockholm case studies with a simulation model underline the need to accurately measure speeds, while the value of travel time appears less critical. Finally, the impact of costs of public funds on public accounts is greatly significant and may increase in the future.     

港口工程进度风险分析研究

运用网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真,从宏观的项目层和微观的工序层分别进行进度风险分析:在项目层,仿真计算获取总工期的统计分布,据此计算某一计划工期的项目完工概率或完工风险,或给定完工概率或风险水平下制定计划工期;在工序层,通过计算各工序关键概率(ACP)及工序关键指标(ACI),掌握关键线路、关键工序分布情况,甄别高风险工作。此外,用VisualC 开发了一个网络计划仿真软件,并应用于一港口工程实例分析。     

Applying the Value-Belief-Norm Theory to Marine Contexts: Implications for Encouraging Pro-Environmental Behavior

Encouraging pro-environmental behavior among protected area visitors and other stakeholders has become a priority for marine resource managers. However, there exists a lack of understanding of the human dimensions of resource management regarding the perceptions and attitudes of stakeholders. Using the value-belief-norm theory of environmentalism (VBN) as a framework, the purposes of this investigation were to: 1) test a model of variables that influence stakeholders' intentions to adopt pro-environmental behavior in two marine protected areas (i.e., the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary); and 2) using the relevant literature and information gleaned from the model, suggest techniques that managers can use to encourage pro-environmental intentions. Acceptable goodness-of-fit indices for both of the structural equation models (one for each protected area) provided empirical support for the usefulness of the VBN framework to guide both research in marine contexts and marine protected area management efforts to encourage stakeholders' intentions to engage in pro-environmental behavior. Specific suggestions include increasing stakeholders. knowledge about impacts via environmental education strategies, increasing their awareness of their impacts and their efficacy in mitigating those impacts (e.g., workshops), and developing interpersonal relationships among managers and stakeholders (e.g., implementation intention and follow-up strategies).     

轴向载荷下多平面DT型管节点应力集中系数概率模型研究

应力集中系数作为一个随机变量,对管节点及导管架平台的疲劳可靠性评估结果有着重要影响。文章以多平面DT型管节点为研究对象,建立了352个几何参数不同的三维管节点有限元模型,并分析了沿弦管-撑管焊缝处的应力集中系数分布。采用密度直方图描述最大应力集中系数统计样本的特征,利用疲劳可靠性分析中常用的几种概率分布进行拟合。各个概率模型中的参数通过极大似然估计方法得到。根据卡方检验的结果对比发现,Birnbaum-Saunders分布是最适合的概率模型。因此,文中提出一组适用于描述在轴向载荷即单向轴向和平衡轴向载荷作用下多平面DT型管节点弦管侧和撑管侧最大应力集中系数分布的概率模型,对今后导管架式海洋平台结构的疲劳可靠性分析具有重要意义。     

A simplified grounding damage prediction method and its application in modern damage stability requirements

This paper presents the analyses and results aimed at developing damage stability requirements which take into account the structural vulnerability to grounding damage, i.e. the kinetic energy available to generate damage and the structural resistance. The paper presents analysis of new damage statistics in order to determine impact scenarios, in particular in terms of impact speed, impact location, and width and height of damage. Furthermore a new empirical damage prediction formula is developed based on a combination of full-scale testing and extensive non-linear finite element analyses. This deterministic prediction method is validated against grounding experiments and then used in a probabilistic (Monte Carlo) simulation framework. First the simulation method is calibrated and validated against the real statistical damage data for conventional ships and then it is used to generate damage statistics for high-speed craft. It turns out that the grounding damage statistics for all ships can be characterized by a single parameter; the Grounding Damage Index, GDI, which includes the ship kinetic energy and its structural resistance to grounding damage. Simple, closed-form expressions are developed for the GDI and it is shown how the probability of exceeding a box-shaped damage is a simple function of the GDI and the size of the box. The paper therefore gives the background and the results for a new generation of damage stability rules where the structural crashworthiness is taken into account and where the passive safety level is explicitly expressed. It furthermore gives simplified prediction tools and data for actual ships, i.e. a toolbox that is readily available for risk analysis regarding grounding damage.     

船用蠕动式连续拖曳行走装置运动分析及优化

为了实现大型海洋工程装备在船舶或浮体等运动物表面的稳定、连续、快速行走运动,对船用蠕动式连续拖曳行走装置进行了研究。介绍了在模拟尺蠖蠕动基础上增加了交替拖曳功能的行走装置运动原理,并设计了相应的机械结构及液压驱动系统。对行走装置进行了运动分析,建立了以被拖体运动速度最大为目标,以液压系统流量限制为约束条件的优化数学模型,对行走装置垂向及横向运动时间进行了优化。最后通过某海底管线铺设装备上配置的行走装置样机试验,验证了其运动性能以及各环节运动时间对被拖体运动速度的影响情况。     

Preliminary parametric estimation of steel weight for new ships

This paper presents an agile method for accurately estimating the steel weight of a new ship in the preliminary design stage. A container ship database within a three-dimensional computer-aided design system was used to facilitate the division of a ship into several estimated structural sections, including the forward, cargo, engine room, aft, etc. This procedure is an improvement over the traditional parametric estimation process, which only estimates a rough weight for an entire ship based on specific empirical formulas and then assigns a weight to each part of the ship manually. To estimate the steel weight of a new ship, the parameters of the individual sections are referenced from a similar vessel automatically selected using the principal dimension. Next, principal component analysis is applied to define the principal parameters, i.e., the principal dimension, the feature of each section and the fitting coefficient of the principal parameters. The general equations with the highest correlative predictor variables for the individual sections are then obtained by regression. Comparing the estimation variability, the section estimation provides a more accurate steel weight and constitutes a new means of efficiently obtaining the weight distribution to support the various aspects of preliminary design, i.e., the determination of the center of gravity, the design of the ship lines and ship performance evaluation.     

Modified environmental contour method for predicting long-term extreme responses of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines

Predicting extreme responses is very important in designing a bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines. The commonly used method that account for the variability of the response and the environmental conditions is the full long-term analysis (FLTA), which is accurate but time consuming. It is a direct integration of all the probability distribution of short-term extremes and the environmental conditions. Since the long-term extreme responses are usually governed by very few important environmental conditions, the long-term analysis can be greatly simplified if such conditions are identified. For offshore structures, one simplified method is the environmental contour method (ECM), which uses the short-term extreme probability distribution of important environmental conditions selected on the contour surface with the relevant return periods. However, because of the inherent difference of offshore wind turbines and ordinary offshore structures, especially their non-monotonic behavior of the responses under wind loads, ECM cannot be directly applied because the environmental condition it selects is not close to the actual most important one.The paper presents a modified environmental contour method (MECM) for bottom-fixed offshore wind turbine applications. It can identify the most important environmental condition that governs the long-term extreme. The method is tested on the NREL 5 MW wind turbine supported by a simplified jacket-type support structure. Compared to the results of FLTA, MECM yields accurate results and is shown to be an efficient and reliable method for the prediction of the extreme responses of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines.     

Bayesian calibration of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical models and benefits for environmental management

Aquatic biogeochemical models have been an indispensable tool for addressing pressing environmental issues, e.g., understanding oceanic response to climate change, elucidation of the interplay between plankton dynamics and atmospheric CO₂ levels, and examination of alternative management schemes for eutrophication control. Their ability to form the scientific basis for environmental management decisions can be undermined by the underlying structural and parametric uncertainty. In this study, we outline how we can attain realistic predictive links between management actions and ecosystem response through a probabilistic framework that accommodates rigorous uncertainty analysis of a variety of error sources, i.e., measurement error, parameter uncertainty, discrepancy between model and natural system. Because model uncertainty analysis essentially aims to quantify the joint probability distribution of model parameters and to make inference about this distribution, we believe that the iterative nature of Bayes' Theorem is a logical means to incorporate existing knowledge and update the joint distribution as new information becomes available. The statistical methodology begins with the characterization of parameter uncertainty in the form of probability distributions, then water quality data are used to update the distributions, and yield posterior parameter estimates along with predictive uncertainty bounds. Our illustration is based on a six state variable (nitrate, ammonium, dissolved organic nitrogen, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacteria) ecological model developed for gaining insight into the mechanisms that drive plankton dynamics in a coastal embayment; the Gulf of Gera, Island of Lesvos, Greece. The lack of analytical expressions for the posterior parameter distributions was overcome using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations; a convenient way to obtain representative samples of parameter values. The Bayesian calibration resulted in realistic reproduction of the key temporal patterns of the system, offered insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs, and also allowed the quantification of the dependence structure among the parameter estimates. Finally, our study uses two synthetic datasets to examine the ability of the updated model to provide estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest.     

Determination of limiting cavity depths for offshore spudcan foundations in a spatially varying seabed

The importance of accurate prediction of limiting cavity depths during offshore spudcan foundations installation has been variously highlighted in the literature. Nonetheless, most of the previous research is deterministic in nature and confined to homogenous soils. Since offshore clayey soils can be highly spatially variable, there is a practical need to take proper account of the spatial variability in the prediction of limiting cavity depths. In a bid to remedy this situation, large deformation finite element calculations combined with three-dimensional random fields were repeatedly conducted in this study within a Monte-Carlo framework. The continuous penetration of a spudcan initiated from surface was explicitly modeled until a full-localized flow-around mechanism was observed. Spatial variability was found to clearly affect the soil back-flow and thereby the limiting cavity depth, the latter of which takes a range of values that can be approximately modeled as a log-normal distribution. Characteristic limiting cavity depths at various probability levels were ascertained. An algebraic expression was proposed to explicitly predict the characteristic limiting cavity depths in random soils from the fractile. Particular attention was paid to the lower and upper 5% characteristic values, which are likely to be useful for reliability-based design.     

Travel differences by gender for older people in London

As a guarantee of life quality, older people’s travel demand has to be satisfied, so understanding their travel demand is important. An important point to bear in mind is that older people are not a homogeneous group but that distinguishing between older women and older men in their mobility needs and travel patterns is necessary. Older people’s travel demand needs to be investigated from many different aspects, including trip generation, travel time, and mode choice. In this study, the investigation is focused on older people’s trip chaining, including trip chain complexity, tour composition in a chain.     

交叉口高峰时段右转车辆通行时间可靠性研究

早高峰时段对右转车辆通过十字交叉口的时间进行连续2h的观测,对获得的样本数据采用统计学的方法进行分析,得出样本基本符合正态分布的一般假设,运用检验对这一假设进行检验,得到其符合正态分布的一般规律。基于上述分布规律,通过提出的交叉口的右转通行时间修正系数,对路段行程时间可靠性模型进行改进,得到适用于十字交叉口处右转车的通行时间可靠性评价模型。     

On the probability of underwater glider loss due to collision with a ship

The demonstrated utility of underwater gliders as measurement platforms for the open ocean has sparked a growing interest in operating them in shallow coastal areas too. Underwater gliders face additional challenges in this environment, such as strong (tidal) currents and high shipping intensity. This work focuses on the probability of losing a glider through a collision with a ship. A ship density map is constructed for the German Bight from observed ship movements derived from automatic identification system data. A simple probability model is developed to convert ship densities into collision probabilities. More realistic—but also more computationally expensive—Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for verification. This model can be used to generate geographic maps showing the probability of glider loss due to collisions. Such maps are useful when planning glider missions. The method developed herein is also applicable to other types of AUVs.     

Monetary and non-monetary value creation in cruise port destinations: an empirical assessment

The cruise tourism industry has been the fastest growing segment of the global travel sector over the last decades. Due to its dramatic expansion, this sector has recently attracted an increasing interest from researchers and practitioners.

Despite this attention, however, some literature gaps still persist. Indeed, extant contributions facing the cruise tourism (positive) impact on the local community neglect to investigate the potential overall value disruption caused by cruise traffic diversion towards other destinations.

Therefore, this paper measures the overall value potentially generated for the territory by a cruise company, which is not a shareholder of the facility in a port of call. The monetary and non-monetary value is estimated using empirical data collected from 208 cruise passengers and 64 crewmembers. The results show the total amount of passenger, crew and cruise-line expenditures (i.e., monetary impact), as well as the non-monetary effect triggered by word-of-mouth behaviour. The main ?ndings yield several implications for academics, managers and policymakers.     

动态交通流诱导模型在交通出行服务中的应用研究

本文从浙江交通智能交通建设应用需求出发,分析了动态交通流诱导模型在浙江交通出行服务中的实际应用,提出了浙江交通高速公路、内河航道实时交通状况分析的方案。该方案包括了基于多个Agent诱导代理系统的诱导模型,交通流诱导系统框架等自主技术研究成果。同时,本文给出了在浙江交通出行服务实际应用中,结合GPS定位技术、GIS地理信息技术、GSM/CDMA无线通信技术,实现了浙江交通高速公路、内河航道实时交通状况的分析和播报的应用场景。     

船体结构腐蚀模型对检测及维修规划的影响

提出了基于风险的船体结构腐蚀优化检测及维修的基本理论框架.最优的检测及维修,是在保证结构在设计工作寿命内的可靠指标大于最低可靠指标的基础上,使结构生命周期内总的期望费用最小.建立了检测、维修及失效事件的安全余量方程,推导了失效及维修概率的计算公式.在此基础上,以船体结构两种常用的腐蚀模型Paik模型和Guedes Soares模型为例,分析了两种模型对最优检测及维修策略的影响.其结果表明,腐蚀模型对最优的检测及维修次数和时间有明显的影响,但是对总的期望费用及失效概率影响不大,而且两种腐蚀模型得出的最优失效概率都是10-3.     

Marginal and total exceedance probabilities of environmental contours

Various methods have been proposed for defining an environmental contour, based on different concepts of exceedance probability. In the inverse first-order reliability method (IFORM) and the direct sampling (DS) method, contours are defined in terms of exceedances within a region bounded by a hyperplane in either standard normal space or the original parameter space, corresponding to marginal exceedance probabilities under rotations of the coordinate system. In contrast, the more recent inverse second-order reliability method (ISORM) and highest density (HD) contours are defined in terms of an isodensity contour of the joint density function in either standard normal space or the original parameter space, where an exceedance is defined to be anywhere outside the contour. Contours defined in terms of the total probability outside the contour are significantly more conservative than contours defined in terms of marginal exceedance probabilities. In this work we study the relationship between the marginal exceedance probability of the maximum value of each variable along an environmental contour and the total probability outside the contour. The marginal exceedance probability of the contour maximum can be orders of magnitude lower than the total exceedance probability of the contour, with the differences increasing with the number of variables. For example, a 50-year ISORM contour for two variables at 3-h time steps, passes through points with marginal return periods of 635 years, and the marginal return periods increase to 10,950 years for contours of four variables. It is shown that the ratios of marginal to total exceedance probabilities for DS contours are similar to those for IFORM contours. However, the marginal exceedance probabilities of the maximum values of each variable along an HD contour are not in fixed relation to the contour exceedance probability, but depend on the shape of the joint density function. Examples are presented to illustrate the impact of the choice of contour on simple structural reliability problems for cases where the use of contours defined in terms of either marginal or total exceedance probabilities may be appropriate. The examples highlight that to choose an appropriate contour method, some understanding about the shape of a structure's failure surface is required.