Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation

Britain's national rail system was ‘privatised’ as a result of the 1993 Railways Act, with most of the organisational and ownership changes implemented by 1997. This paper examines the long term impacts of these changes. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? A simple econometric model of the demand for passenger rail services was developed and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares and train km to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Extrapolative methods were also used to determine counterfactual infrastructure and train operation costs. Although our results are sensitive to the assumptions we have made concerning the counterfactual they suggest a number of impacts. Since privatisation, rail demand has grown strongly but our analysis indicates that transitional disruptions suppressed demand by around 9% over a prolonged period (1992/3 to 2005/6), whilst the Hatfield accident reduced demand by about 5%, albeit over a shorter period (2000/1 to 2006/7). A welfare analysis suggests that although consumers seem to have gained as a result of privatisation, for most years this has been offset by increases in costs. An exception is provided by the two years immediately before the Hatfield accident. Overall the loss in welfare since the reforms were introduced far exceeds the net receipts from the sale of rail businesses. Thus although the reforms have had advantages in terms of lower fares and better service levels than otherwise would have been the case, this appears to have been offset by increased infrastructure and train operations costs. The source of these high costs remains an area of speculation but appear to be related to aspects of both market and regulatory failure.     

Ten years after bus deregulation in Japan: An analysis of institutional changes and cost efficiency

The local bus market in Japan was deregulated in 2002. This study examines the impact of this deregulation on the market structure and the operators' cost efficiency over the last ten years. First, we perform a qualitative before-and-after-deregulation analysis of Japan's bus market, finding that there has been little change in the structure of the Japanese bus market so far. Second, we investigate the effectiveness of the deregulation and internal organisational factors by using a dataset of publicly owned (municipal) bus companies. We estimate the total cost frontier functions in order to examine their effects, showing that it is the internal organisational factors (i.e. governance structure) that affect the operator's efficiency, not deregulation. In fact, the coefficient of subsidies to companies is positive, with statistical significance, thereby suggesting that cost efficiency decreases as the subsidy ratio increases. The coefficient of the contracting-out (MCGL) dummy also obtains statistically significant results; thus, we provide an account of how contracting out clearly improves operators' cost efficiency. The deregulation variable did not show significant results.     

‘Regulated deregulation’ of local bus services—An appraisal of international developments

The deregulation of the British bus sector (outside London) in 1986 was the start of a debate on the merits of ‘deregulation’ and ‘competitive tendering’. The period that followed was rich in lessons. New Zealand was at the time the only other country engaging in a reform based upon market initiative (implemented in 1991). Other countries chose for a less extreme and more consensual way to introduce competitive incentives, choosing the fundamentally different competitive tendering (CT) path. As a result, the so-called ‘Scandinavian model’ developed, based upon the London example of route tendering. Later the Netherlands adopted a network tendering approach, resembling the French practice of network tendering though with more operator freedom.     

The conflict between competition policy and the wider role of the local bus industry in Britain

Since the Transport Act of 1985, the local bus industry in Britain (outside London and Northern Ireland) has been subject to deregulation, removing previous restrictions on routes, service levels and fares. This also marked a reversal of the previous emphasis on co-ordination of services provided by different operators, and introduced competition law as applying to other industries to the local bus sector. This has been in conflict with other policy objectives aimed at stimulating greater use of public transport, such as harmonisation of ticketing systems. The underlying issues are examined, and recent changes in policy. The Local Transport Act of 2008 offers an opportunity to resolve some of these problems, and its application in Oxford is discussed as the first substantial example to date. However, a strong conflict remains between the role of competition agencies and other aspects of policy.     

Local public transport on the basis of social economic criteria

Applying the welfare economic approach it is demonstrated what the effects of certain supply changes in the local public transport will be and the potential of innovative demand management measures are examined. Straighter bus routes would reduce the average travel time from door to door. The travel time on the buses decreases and the frequency increases, which reduces waiting times at bus stops. Using smaller buses and more of them would also increase the net benefit, but increase the need for subsidisation. The peak within the peak in the morning is hard to handle by price policy alone. Introducing a small variation of the start of the school-day for high-school pupils would make investment- and operation cost savings possible, and the inconvenience costs for the pupils could be limited. It is only during peak hours in the main direction of peak travel and in the critical section of the line that optimal price becomes high relative to the present level. Zero fares in off-peak will be social profitable, but an increase in subsidy is needed. An introduction of these policy changes would give rise to a net social benefit of 30 million SEK per year in Linköping.     

Incompleteness and clarity in bus contracts: Identifying the nature of the ex ante and ex post perceptual divide

In the transport sector, many types of contracts exist. Some are very precise, and strive for completeness; others are very ‘light-weight’ and are incomplete. Bus and coach contracts, won through competitive tendering or negotiation, are typically incomplete in the sense of an inability to verify all the relevant obligations, as articulated through a set of deliverables. This paper draws on recent experiences in contract negotiation, and subsequent commitment in the bus sector, to identify what elements of the contracting regime have exposed ambiguity and significant gaps in what the principal expected, and what the agent believed they were obliged to deliver. We develop a series of regression models to investigate the extent of discrepancy between the principal and the agents perceived ‘understanding’ of contract obligations. The empirical evidence, from a sample of bus operators, is used to identify the extent of perceived incompleteness and clarity across a sample of bus contracts. A noteworthy finding is the important role that a trusting partnership plays in reducing the barriers to establishing greater clarity of contract specification and obligations, and in recognition of the degree of contract completeness.     

Regulating the regulator: The impact of professional procuring bodies on local public transport policy and its effectiveness

During the past 15 years competitive tenders have become a common procedure when procuring local bus services in Europe. In particular, tenders with gross cost contracts and the so-called Scandinavian model have gained popularity, resulting in a vast amount of research on optimal contractual relationships between government and operators. This paper pays attention to a rather neglected part of the Scandinavian model: the construction of professional procuring bodies and their relationship to the local public administration, focusing on its implications for policy steering and service performance.The paper outlines briefly two different perspectives of analyses of organisational models: one perspective is anchored in principal-agent theory and institutional economics; and the other perspective in political science. Empirically, the article is based on an evaluation of the relation between two Norwegian counties and the administrative company responsible for planning and procuring public transport services. This evaluation indicates, firstly, important common challenges for the county administration due to lack of regional administrative competencies in relation to the administrative company, which also hampers the county’s role as coordinator of policy areas of importance for public transport. Secondly, due to increased transaction costs, the establishment of administrative companies does not seem compatible with contracts relying on net cost solutions with huge scope for operator initiatives.     

Estimating demand variables of maritime container transport: An aggregate procedure for the Mediterranean area

Demand variables of maritime container transport (throughput, transhipment and origin–destination flows) may be estimated with freight demand models. As their parameters generally vary both in time and space, models may not be transferable to geographical areas and time periods differing from that for which they are calibrated.     

Impact of container chassis management practices in the United States on terminal operational efficiency: An operations and mitigation policy analysis

Existing policies designed to mitigate the environmental and social impacts of truck queuing at maritime terminals often focus on congestion problems outside of the terminal gate, targeting a reduction in the waiting and turn time of trucks as the measure of success. This paper evaluates the impact that intra-terminal truck and equipment movements have on the terminal’s overall performance and the implications that these movements have on the effectiveness of current mitigation policies. Through a simulation of terminal processes occurring at Southern California ports it is shown that measures driving reductions in truck turn times impose greater operational loads on terminal equipment, essentially transferring savings in truck turn time rather than eliminating it in terms of the overall system. Consequently, the paper finds that total truck and cargo handling equipment movement and operational time constitutes a more accurate measure of the effectiveness of policies seeking to mitigate the impacts of truck operations at marine terminals.