Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.     

A disaggregated tool for evaluation of road safety policies

This paper presents a methodological disaggregated approach to analyze the impact of interventions on road safety. The model aims to describe the accident rates of an individual using mileage as a measure of risk exposure. The model is formulated as a system of equations that takes into account interactions between the mileage of a given individual and the other drivers. Once estimated, the model acts as a simulator allowing us to measure the performance of policy interventions to increase road safety.     

Paradoxes of rationality in road safety policy

Rationality is an ideal for transport safety policy. As developed within normative welfare economics, rationality denotes the efficient use of safety measures based on cost–benefit analyses that include all relevant impacts of the measures. Efficiency in the technical sense of the term provides a perfectly clear and precise guideline for policy priorities. Nevertheless, some choices that are guided by cost–benefit analysis may strike us as paradoxical or counterintuitive. A paradox of rationality refers to any situation in which conflicting choices can both be defended as rational. This paper discusses a number of choices that may seem paradoxical. The first involves the choice between options that have identical impacts on safety, but in which these impacts are valued differently. The second deals with the tendency for preference reversals to occur when preferences for the provision of safety are aggregated. The third discusses the inability of conventional measures of willingness-to-pay to reflect the intensity of preferences. The fourth concerns the tendency for policy choice to favour the rich at the expense of the poor when willingness-to-pay is not adjusted for the marginal utility of money. A fifth situation refers to the fact that a policy option that looks attractive ex ante may fail an ex post compensation test because utility functions depend on health state. There is a potential conflict between individual and collective rationality with respect to the costs and benefits of some road safety measures. When developing a road safety programme, a set of road safety measures whose benefits exceed the costs when considered as stand-alone measures could have benefits smaller than cost when combined in a programme consisting of all the measures. Finally, there is a potential conflict between efficiency and negotiated consensus as mechanisms of resource allocation in the public sector. The sources of the paradoxes and ways of avoiding them are discussed. Some of the paradoxes can be avoided if changes in risk are valued in terms of a fixed price per unit of risk rather than according to a non-linear demand function.     

不利天气条件下高速公路安全管理系统的构建

针对不利气象条件给公路交通畅通、运行安全、管养成本带来的不利影响,提出了不利天气条件下高速公路安全管理系统的构建思路、主要功能以及子系统构成。能够满足不利气象条件下的高速公路交通安全管理需求的系统由六大子系统构成：道路气象环境监测系统、道路天气预报及影响评估系统、多信息融合的先进交通管理系统、智能信息发布系统、冬季道路养护决策支持系统及紧急救援系统。     

高速公路运营阶段安全性评价与分析

运用公路安全性评价标准对某现有高速公路运营阶段安全性进行评价与分析,通过计算运行速度和现场实测运行速度对其进行安全性检验,同时引入交通事故调查分析安全评价法鉴别事故黑点,有针对性地进行道路安全改造措施,保证车辆的行车安全。     

The economics of railway safety

This paper reviews the statistics and economics of railway safety in Great Britain, the European Union and the United States, together with some results for Finland and Japan. In these countries railway safety has improved over recent decades. That finding applies both to train accidents and to personal accidents such as persons struck by trains. Fatal train collisions and derailments command most attention even though they are infrequent and account for only a small minority of railway fatalities. Great Britain, the EU and the USA formally espouse conventional cost benefit analysis for the appraisal of railway safety measures, using the same valuations for the prevention of casualties as are used in road safety appraisal. However there are often strong institutional, legal and political pressures towards adopting railway safety measures with safety benefit: cost ratios well below 1. The best-documented examples of this are automatic train protection systems, which are discussed in the paper. Apart from trespassers, the largest group of railway fatalities occur at level crossings, which the paper also discusses. Level crossing safety measures would seem to be an appropriate subject for cost benefit analysis, but there are few case-studies in the literature. Over the last few decades, the railways in many countries have been privatised or deregulated with the aim of improving their economic performance. Such changes have the potential to affect safety. The paper reviews evidence of the effects on safety of railway restructuring in Great Britain, Japan and the United State, and finds no evidence that safety deteriorated.     

The development of road and rail transport safety valuation in the United Kingdom

An extensive body of theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken in the UK since the middle of the last century on the estimation of values of safety for use in the appraisal of proposed transport projects, particularly road and rail. This research has focused largely on ‘willingness-to-pay’ based values in order to measure the strength of the travelling public's preference for marginal improvements in transport safety, relative to consumption of other goods and services. In terms of practical policy making, the research has resulted in a set of values for the prevention of statistical fatalities and non-fatal injuries that are applied not only in transport safety decision making, but also in other public sector contexts. This paper summarises the main findings of this research.     

基于VISSIM仿真的交叉口间接左转适应性研究

为了在保障行车安全的前提下,提高交叉口间接左转的运行效率,分析了间接左转的设置条件,定义了典型应用环境,并将规划方法放入典型应用环境中采用微观仿真软件进行评价。结合我国的交通结构特征进行了组织设计的优化,提出了结合路中式公交专用道设置间接左转的组织方式和右转机动车与自行车在近交叉口段转换车道功能的组织方式。     

城市道路交通应急救援体系研究

道路交通事故应急救援体系能最大限度地降低交通事故的人员伤亡和财产损失,快速恢复正常的交通通行能力。本文研究并建立了城市道路交通应急救援体系,提供了城市道路交通安全软科学方面的支持。     

轨道交通车辆段综合开发的交通规划策略探讨

分析了轨道交通车辆段综合开发原则、模式特点及交通规划存在的诸多难题,基于“高效安全、绿色低碳”交通理念,提出多种模式的道路网络衔接与2层次的公共交通衔接策略,指导了广州市多条轨道交通线车辆段综合开发项目的交通规划和建设。     

A review of recent theoretical and empirical analyses of asymmetric information in road safety and automobile insurance

Road safety policies and automobile insurance contracts often use incentive mechanisms based on traffic violations and accidents to promote safe driving. Can these mechanisms improve road safety efficiently? Do they reduce asymmetric information between drivers and insurers and regulators? In other words, is there residual asymmetric information in observed distributions of accidents and infractions? We answer these questions in this article by reviewing recent theoretical and empirical results that rest on various data and methodologies. We present recent tests related to the identification of residual asymmetric information in road safety management and in automobile insurance contracting. We also propose a theoretical analysis of the foundations of point-record driver's licenses observed around the world.     

高速公路信息发布设施的特性分析

信息发布设施为高速公路的安全、高速和畅通提供基本保障,科学、合理的布设和使用信息发布设施,能够充分发挥其交通诱导的作用,提高道路的服务水平,获得更大的社会效益。本文介绍了高速公路各种信息发布设施,并对其建立指标体系。由指标入手,对各种信息发布设施进行分类和比较,找出各种信息发布设施的优缺点和适用条件,为发布设施的使用提供参考。     

DRAG-ALZ-1, a first model of monthly total road demand,accident frequency,severity and victims by category,and of mean speed on highways,Algeria 1970–2007

We construct a first country-wide model of demand for road use and of road safety outcomes for Algeria making use of the DRAG-type framework and of flexible regression estimation methods that make a demonstrable difference to the quality of our results. We imply that the availability of high quality Algerian data could make it worthwhile not only to consider updates of the model with longer data series but also to study variants of the model, notably with disaggregation of freight activities across industrial sectors.     

From theory to practice in road safety policy: Understanding risk versus mobility

This paper reviews theoretical issues surrounding transport safety modeling and the implications for road safety policy. The behavioral mechanisms that affect transport safety are typically not considered in safety modeling. These issues are discussed in the context of trade-offs between risk-taking, as perceived by travelers, and other mobility objectives and the attributes associated with them. This is an extension of other theoretical frameworks, such as risk compensation, and attempts to integrate some of the previous frameworks developed over the years. Various examples of behavioral adaptation to specific policies are discussed and linked to the framework. These issues are then discussed in the context of improvements to empirical work in this area and the linkage of theoretical frameworks to crash modeling, in particular the estimation and use of Crash Modification Factors. Conclusions suggest that there are many deficiencies in practice, from estimation of models to choice of effective policies. Progress is being made on the former, while the publication of practical guidance seems to have substantial lags in knowledge.     

山区公路路侧护栏在不同碰撞角度下的结构分析与改善对策

山区公路由于地形、环境以及投资等具体条件影响,其路侧安全设计尤为重要,为保证车辆的行驶安全,对路侧护栏需进行结构安全分析与评价。针对山区公路的波形梁护栏采用AN-SYS软件,对护栏在不同角度的撞击荷载作用下的反力、应力及位移情况进行分析,得到不同的撞击角度下护栏的应力、弯矩和位移的变化规律。当碰撞角度大于30°时,护栏结构所受内力及位移变形较大,针对这一角度进行护栏的安全性能改善。     

城市明挖隧道基坑施工监测分析

以南京市城市快速内环东线二期工程一标段为例,通过对施工监测过程中的钢支撑轴力、周边建筑物沉降、深层土体水平位移等监测数据进行分析对比,探讨了影响基坑及周边环境安全的主要影响因素,得出一些开挖过程中支撑轴力和深层土体水平位移的变化规律。     

Part 1. National road safety performance: Data,the emergence of two single-outcome modeling streams and public health

This first part of the state-of-the art focuses on the origins of road safety modeling, covering data, early models and the public health context of model formulation and use.     

沿河道路路基方案设计

依山傍河的沿河道路受到河流因素及山体地形、地质等客观条件的限制,如何选择半填半挖的路基防护和支挡结构方案,是沿河道路设计的难点。湘西某城市道路项目,路基采用了超70 m高边坡及桩板式挡土墙组合结构,解决了特殊地段路基的技术难题,具有良好的安全性、经济性和适用性。     

集装箱港区交通量计算模式探讨及道路系统的适应性分析

针对集装箱港区吞吐量增长给港区公路集疏运系统所带来的压力,研究公路交通量与集装箱公路集疏运量的关系。通过建立集装箱港区公路交通量的计算模式,并借助交通工程学的有关理论分析港口道路集疏运系统的适应性。本计算模式可指导集装箱港区公路集疏运系统的规划设计,保证集装箱港区公路集疏运系统的顺畅,为类似工程提供参考。     

Valuing casualty risk reductions from estimated baseline risk

Stated choice studies have been applied regularly to the valuation of time savings and other attributes of travelling as perceived by individuals. In such experiments, respondents often provide reference levels for the attributes and the hypothetical choices presented to them are pivoted around actual behaviour. However, most individuals are not able to provide reference levels for the number of casualties on the road they travel. Thus, if valuation of this important element is attempted, it is the researcher who must provide casualty risk reference levels to the respondents. Some studies have applied route choice experiments including a safety attribute but the majority has been limited to only one particular road section with a common baseline risk for all respondents.