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1.
Rationality is an ideal for transport safety policy. As developed within normative welfare economics, rationality denotes the efficient use of safety measures based on cost–benefit analyses that include all relevant impacts of the measures. Efficiency in the technical sense of the term provides a perfectly clear and precise guideline for policy priorities. Nevertheless, some choices that are guided by cost–benefit analysis may strike us as paradoxical or counterintuitive. A paradox of rationality refers to any situation in which conflicting choices can both be defended as rational. This paper discusses a number of choices that may seem paradoxical. The first involves the choice between options that have identical impacts on safety, but in which these impacts are valued differently. The second deals with the tendency for preference reversals to occur when preferences for the provision of safety are aggregated. The third discusses the inability of conventional measures of willingness-to-pay to reflect the intensity of preferences. The fourth concerns the tendency for policy choice to favour the rich at the expense of the poor when willingness-to-pay is not adjusted for the marginal utility of money. A fifth situation refers to the fact that a policy option that looks attractive ex ante may fail an ex post compensation test because utility functions depend on health state. There is a potential conflict between individual and collective rationality with respect to the costs and benefits of some road safety measures. When developing a road safety programme, a set of road safety measures whose benefits exceed the costs when considered as stand-alone measures could have benefits smaller than cost when combined in a programme consisting of all the measures. Finally, there is a potential conflict between efficiency and negotiated consensus as mechanisms of resource allocation in the public sector. The sources of the paradoxes and ways of avoiding them are discussed. Some of the paradoxes can be avoided if changes in risk are valued in terms of a fixed price per unit of risk rather than according to a non-linear demand function.  相似文献   

2.
This study analyzes stated willingness to pay (WTP) for traffic safety, the use of traffic safety equipments, and the consistency between the two. Using data from a Swedish contingent valuation study we find that the estimated value of a statistical life (VSL) based on the respondents' rear-seatbelt usage is similar to the estimate found using the respondents' stated WTP. However, when estimating VSL based on the respondents' use of bicycle helmets we find a significantly higher VSL; the VSL from bicycle-helmet usage is 7 times higher than the estimate based on seatbelt usage. Moreover, we do not find any strong relationship between risk perception and usage, or individual stated WTP and usage. Hence, the main conclusion, based on our analysis, is that stated and observed WTP are not consistent.  相似文献   

3.
An extensive body of theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken in the UK since the middle of the last century on the estimation of values of safety for use in the appraisal of proposed transport projects, particularly road and rail. This research has focused largely on ‘willingness-to-pay’ based values in order to measure the strength of the travelling public's preference for marginal improvements in transport safety, relative to consumption of other goods and services. In terms of practical policy making, the research has resulted in a set of values for the prevention of statistical fatalities and non-fatal injuries that are applied not only in transport safety decision making, but also in other public sector contexts. This paper summarises the main findings of this research.  相似文献   

4.
This paper reviews road safety performance in the United States. The paper develops a framework for assessing dimensions of road safety, and analyzes the importance of economic factors, travel patterns, demographics, road/traffic/vehicle technology, driver behavior, and public policy. Issues and challenges for future road safety research are discussed.  相似文献   

5.
This paper reviews the economic literature relating to aviation safety; analyzes the safety record of commercial passenger aviation in the United States and abroad; examines aviation security as a growing dimension of aviation safety; and identifies emerging issues in airline safety and challenges for aviation safety research. Commercial airline safety has improved dramatically since the industry's birth over a century ago. Fatal accident rates for large scheduled jet airlines have fallen to the level where (along many dimensions) aviation is now the safest mode of commercial transportation. However, safety performance has not been evenly distributed across all segments of commercial aviation, nor among all countries and regions of the world. The finding that developing countries have much poorer safety records has been a persistent conclusion in aviation safety research and continues to be the case. Unfortunately, operations data are not available for many of the airlines that experience fatal accidents, so it is not possible to calculate reliable fatality rates for many segments of the worldwide aviation industry. Without more complete information, it will likely be difficult to make substantial improvements in the safety of these operations. Challenges to improving aviation security include: how much to focus on identifying the terrorists as opposed to identifying the tools they might use; determining how to respond to terrorist threats; and determining the public versus private roles in providing aviation security. The next generation of safety challenges now require development and understanding of new forms of data to improve safety in other segments of commercial aviation, and moving from a reactive, incident-based approach toward a more proactive, predictive and systems-based approach.  相似文献   

6.
The second part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the development of the founders' double streams explaining single-outcome indicators (probability of accidents and fatalities, respectively) by fixed form regression, as outlined in the Part 1. Following Page (1997, pp. 67–122, 2001) and others, we use as turning point of the evolution of both aggregate and discrete approaches the DRAG-1 model of 1984, itself based on aggregate data, which introduced four key innovations in principle applicable to both streams.  相似文献   

7.
8.
The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.  相似文献   

9.
起重作业伤害是船舶企业常见的安全生产的典型事故之一,起重作业的安全管理直接关系到船舶企业整体的安全管理工作。文章分析了起重作业伤害的现状与特点,指出了控制起重作业伤害的关键。  相似文献   

10.
三维近自由表面水翼升力线理论   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
文章将普朗特的升力线理论扩展到自由表面下的三维水翼升力分析问题。二维水翼升力计算采用奇点分布法,三维水翼升力采用普朗特的马蹄涡叠加法,得到了三维水翼升力线计算理论。并且都考虑了自由表面的影响。在算例中,针对不同的潜深和翼弦长度,给出了升力系数和潜深弗汝德数的关系。其计算结果与其他文献所给的结果相比吻合得很好。  相似文献   

11.
Accessibility measures are important tools in planning. However, if the data are not available to adequately capture the mobility and accessibility challenges of disadvantaged populations, than the results of the model provide little to no direction for policy makers. This paper explores data collection techniques that have the potential to address the “why” underlining the activity behavior, especially linking personal safety perceptions to activities. The first study comes from a series of focus groups with low-income women in Quebec City, Canada. Self-mapping of individual spaces creates a framework to address spatial and temporal challenges that negatively impact transit dependent populations. The second study focuses on the activity patterns of low-income immigrant youth in Providence, RI. A technique is presented to elicit formatted responses concerning perceptions of personal safety. With the help of GIS, this technique has the potential to link together activities and perceptions of safety for activity modeling.  相似文献   

12.
The river–sea system consisting of the Gaoping (new spelling according to the latest government's directive, formerly spelled Kaoping) River (KPR), shelf, and Submarine Canyon (KPRSC) located off southern Taiwan is an ideal natural laboratory to study the source, pathway, transport, and fate of terrestrial substances. In 2004 during the flood season of the KPR, a system-wide comprehensive field experiment was conducted to investigate particle dynamics from a source-to-sink perspective in the KPRSC with the emphasis on the effect of particle size on the transport, settling, and sedimentation along the pathway. This paper reports the findings from (1) two sediment trap moorings each configured with a Technicap PPS 3/3 sediment trap, and an acoustic current meter (Aquadopp); (2) concurrent hydrographic profiling and water sampling was conducted over 8 h next to the sediment trap moorings; and (3) box-coring in the head region of the submarine canyon near the mooring sites. Particle samples from sediment traps were analyzed for mass fluxes, grain-size composition, total organic carbon (TOC) and nitrogen (TN), organic matter (OM), carbonate, biogenic opal, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), lithogenic silica and aluminum, and foraminiferal abundance. Samples from box cores were analyzed for grain-size distribution, TOC, particulate organic matter (POM), carbonate, biogenic opal, water content, and 210Pbex. Water samples were filtered through 500, 250, 63, 10 µm sieves and 0.4 µm filter for the suspended sediment concentration of different size-classes.Results show that the river and shelf do not supply all the suspended particles near the canyon floor. The estimated mass flux near the canyon floor exceeds 800 g/m2/day, whose values are 2–7 times higher than those at the upper rim of the canyon. Most of the suspended particles in the canyon are fine-grained (finer than medium silt) lithogenic sediments whose percentages are 90.2% at the upper rim and 93.6% in the deeper part of the canyon.As suspended particles settle through the canyon, their size-composition shows a downward fining trend. The average percentage of clay-to-fine-silt particles (0.4–10 µm) in the water samples increases from 22.7% above the upper rim of the canyon to 56.0% near the bottom of the canyon. Conversely, the average percentage of the sand-sized (> 63 µm) suspended particles decreases downward from 32.0% above the canyon to 12.0% in the deeper part of the canyon. Correspondingly, the substrate of the canyon is composed largely of hemipelagic lithogenic mud. Parallel to this downward fining trend is the downward decrease of concentrations of suspended nonlithogenic substances such as TOC and PAH, despite of their affinity to fine-grained particles.On the surface of the canyon, down-core variables (grain size, 210Pbex activity, TOC, water content) near the head region of the canyon show post-depositional disturbances such as hyperpycnite and turbiditic deposits. These deposits point to the occurrences of erosion and deposition related to high-density flows such as turbidity currents, which might be an important process in submarine canyon sedimentation.  相似文献   

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