面向规划的城市公交运营规模指标体系探析

从公交可持续发展的角度,对众多公交运营技术指标进行梳理,筛选出与规划直接相关的能够体现公交运营规模的关键指标,建立面向规划的公交运营规模指标体系,并运用层次分析法对指标体系的各关键指标进行定量评价,计算出各指标的相应权重,为城市公交规划及其行动计划的制定提供抉择依据。     

Towards a simplified performance-linked value for money model as a reference point for bus contract payments

The burgeoning commitment to contracting the delivery of bus services through competitive tendering or negotiated performance-based contracts has been accompanied by as many contract payments schemes as there are contracts. We are now well placed to design a simplified performance-linked payment (SPLP) model that can be used as a reference point to ensure value for money, given the accumulation of experiences throughout the world which have revealed substantive common elements in contracts. Whether the payment to the operator is framed as a payment per passenger or as a payment per service kilometre, the SPLP identifies efficient subsidy outcomes that are linked to a proxy indicator of net social benefit per dollar of subsidy. We illustrate how the SPLP model can be applied to obtain the gross (subsidy) cost per passenger (or per passenger km) from measures of gross cost efficiency and network effectiveness. This model can then be used as part of a benchmarking activity to identify reference value of money prospects in respect of passengers per $ subsidy outlay by adjusting for influences not under the control of the service provider. A single framework to identify contract payments to operators, and to assess (i.e., benchmark) operator performance on critical KPIs, is provided by internalising critical key performance indicators (KPIs) in the design of the SPLP. The proposed SPLP model is sufficiently general to be independent of the procurement method (competitive tendered or negotiated, for example) and of the treatment of revenue allocation (net or gross based contracts), with the additional advantage of being able to assess value for money for government.     

船舶涂装冲砂派工精细化研究

精细化管理是现代企业所追求的管理模式,在精细化管理下,员工个人能力得到合理安排,整体工作效率得到提升.冲砂作业是涂装作业中重要一环,其精细化派工的实现有利于涂装效率的提升.本文通过对冲砂作业进行分析,研究了不同因素对冲砂效率影响,其中着重研究了作业环境所造成工作人员不同姿势及其对效率的影响,综合分析冲砂作业在不同姿势下的作业效率,并对涂装设计提出改进建议,从而为精细化派工提供了依据.     

Growing patronage - Challenges and what has been found to work

This paper synthesizes evidence on growing public transport patronage. The paper firstly examines barriers to patronage growth before reviewing evidence on endogenous factors (those within the control of operators and regulators) and exogenous factors (those factors such as socio-economic influences which are not controlled by regulators/operators) which affect public transport patronage. Suggested barriers include capacity, network transfers, perceptions and investment/subsidy needs. Evidence is presented suggesting that reliability, service levels and fares are the principal tools to adopt in growing patronage. Car ownership, income and population growth, employment and urban sprawl are amongst the exogenous factors identified as influencing patronage.     

Promoting social inclusion in a deregulated environment: Extending accessibility using collective taxi-based services

Bus based public transport has enjoyed revitalisation in many urban areas but outside large towns and cities its provision and quality remains erratic. Many rural settlements have infrequent services giving rise to social exclusion through transport disadvantage.The UK Government highlighted a need in Towards a Sustainable Transport System (2007) for radical new thinking on rural accessibility to help meet goals of quality of life and accessibility for all and to help meet the challenge in finding carbon friendly ways of meeting rural transport needs. This paper reports work undertaken for the Commission for Integrated Transport, an advisory body to UK Government, on how shared taxi-schemes could be developed within a deregulated environment to meet rural accessibility needs. This is based on an analysis of institutional barriers and comparison between successful mainland European schemes and UK schemes. The paper considers economic viability and the levels of subsidy currently used to provide accessibility in rural areas to show the potential for making current expenditure on rural transport in the UK ‘work harder’ to deliver a collective taxi-based service as part of the public transport mix so as to increase rural accessibility.     

Local public transport on the basis of social economic criteria

Applying the welfare economic approach it is demonstrated what the effects of certain supply changes in the local public transport will be and the potential of innovative demand management measures are examined. Straighter bus routes would reduce the average travel time from door to door. The travel time on the buses decreases and the frequency increases, which reduces waiting times at bus stops. Using smaller buses and more of them would also increase the net benefit, but increase the need for subsidisation. The peak within the peak in the morning is hard to handle by price policy alone. Introducing a small variation of the start of the school-day for high-school pupils would make investment- and operation cost savings possible, and the inconvenience costs for the pupils could be limited. It is only during peak hours in the main direction of peak travel and in the critical section of the line that optimal price becomes high relative to the present level. Zero fares in off-peak will be social profitable, but an increase in subsidy is needed. An introduction of these policy changes would give rise to a net social benefit of 30 million SEK per year in Linköping.     

高原地区E50汽油机掺烧含水乙醇的试验研究

阐述了在高原地区进行汽油机掺烧含水乙醇的试验研究,着重介绍了掺烧50%的含水乙醇的汽油对汽油机的经济性、动力性的影响。还进行了怠速排放对比试验的研究。试验结果表明,此比例的混合燃料的稳定性良好；能够保持发动机的原机动力性；有效燃油消耗率有一定的上升,但不是十分明显；当量燃油消耗率明显低于原机水平,提高了原机的经济性；有效热效率相对于原机有了不同程度的提高；怠速工况CH和CO的排放有所改善。     

Operating differential subsidies: problems and alternatives for the United States

In this paper a proposal for a Competitive Rate of Return (CRR) based operating-subsidy system is made as an alternative to the existing US foreign-cost parity ODS system. Such an alternative, if adopted, could be successful in meaningfully relating US government maritime subsidy programmes to the legitimate financial needs of the industry. From the operator's viewpoint, the risk of drastic revenue fluctuations is removed, yet adequate opportunities are provided for firms with above average performance to be rewarded for their efficiency in higher than average profits. similarly, poorly run firms have an opportunity to lose money, in spite of government subsidies.

From the government's viewpoint, the CRR programme guarantees the provision of essential shipping services at the lowest possible cost. Because of substantial incentives to the operator on both the revenue and cost side of his profit equation, it is more likely that long-run government operating subsidies can be reduced under CRR than under the present system.

Although the CRR system has been described for use in determining subsidies for both bulk and general cargo carriers, it has been recommended that this system be considered first for implementation in the case of bulk vessels, because of the newness of the bulk subsidy programme. In addition, the 1970 Act gives MarAd the flexibility to initiate such a programme for bulk vessels without the necessity of new legislation.     

Operating differential subsidies: problems and alternatives for the United States

In this paper a proposal for a Competitive Rate of Return (CRR) based operating-subsidy system is made as an alternative to the existing US foreign-cost parity ODS system. Such an alternative, if adopted, could be successful in meaningfully relating US government maritime subsidy programmes to the legitimate financial needs of the industry. From the operator's viewpoint, the risk of drastic revenue fluctuations is removed, yet adequate opportunities are provided for firms with above average performance to be rewarded for their efficiency in higher than average profits. similarly, poorly run firms have an opportunity to lose money, in spite of government subsidies.

From the government's viewpoint, the CRR programme guarantees the provision of essential shipping services at the lowest possible cost. Because of substantial incentives to the operator on both the revenue and cost side of his profit equation, it is more likely that long-run government operating subsidies can be reduced under CRR than under the present system.

Although the CRR system has been described for use in determining subsidies for both bulk and general cargo carriers, it has been recommended that this system be considered first for implementation in the case of bulk vessels, because of the newness of the bulk subsidy programme. In addition, the 1970 Act gives MarAd the flexibility to initiate such a programme for bulk vessels without the necessity of new legislation.     

Programming, optimal pricing and partnership contract for infrastructures in PPPs

The development of various forms of public-private partnerships for the financing, building and operating of public infrastructure has not fundamentally altered the economic calculations involved. This chapter examines to what extent it is necessary, however, to change the way that government uses socio-economic and financial evaluations, whether to optimise investment programming or pricing. Ensuring a coherent match between these two types of optimisation can provide a principle for determining the optimal programming price.We begin by showing that when projects are financed by both users (toll revenues) and taxpayers (subsidies), it is socially beneficial to plan these investments on the basis of the net present value (NPV) provided by each unit of public money invested. This NPV/subsidy ratio must obviously be higher than the public-funding scarcity coefficient or else the investment would destroy more wealth than it would produce.One of the ways of improving this ratio is also to optimise the toll level, since increasing it can lower the subsidy but has an adverse impact on the user surplus, it is essential to set the optimal toll.In the case of an approved project considered in isolation, we show that the optimal toll depends upon the public-funding scarcity coefficient. If there is no scarcity, the optimal toll is zero. As public-funding becomes scarcer, the optimal toll draws closer to the toll that optimises revenue.In the case of a programme of several projects subject to budget constraint, we show that the optimal toll no longer depends upon the public-funding scarcity coefficient and that there are several scenarios depending on the relative values of the maximum revenue and the total cost of the project:

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when, whatever the toll, revenue can no longer cover over half of the cost, it is socially beneficial to choose not to levy any toll;

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when there is a toll that covers the total cost, the operator may be left free to set it at the level he sees fit, with the issue of how the profits are to be shared between the franchisee and the franchisor being settled separately;

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when the maximum revenue of the project falls between half and all of the total cost, the value of the toll that maximises the welfare function is lower than the revenue-maximising toll and must therefore be set for the private operator by government.

Thus, the partnership contract must be given a different content in these three cases of optimal pricing.

Preamble

Most of the theoretical studies devoted to optimising public investment programming and infrastructure pricing have, since the work of Jules Dupuit (1844), focused on the salient issues of the transport sector, even though this work was relevant to all sorts of public infrastructure. The analysis presented in this paper deals with transport economics, but in line with this tradition, is also applicable to any field in which public-funding is combined with commercial revenue. For example, the question of determining how the financing of an opera should be shared between taxpayers and opera-goers raises the same type of issues as the optimal combination of tolls and subsidies for financing a motorway project. This report will be focused on these issues. We shall see that certain precautions are called for in investment programming together with some new thinking on pricing principles.     

货物单元系固方案校核方法的运用

在船舶运输中,货物单元合理系固是确保船舶安全的重要因素。IMO关于货物单元系固所提供的经验方法和精确计算方法,在实际应用中各有优点和不足,针对这两种方法的效果进行比较研究,在确保船舶安全的前提下,找到一种既精确又更为便捷的方法,具有普遍适用性。     

水流速度对内河船舶营运能效影响分析

本文在能源消耗和环境污染的危机下,致力于内河船舶能源消耗和温室气体排放的研究,分析了水流速度对内河船舶营运能效的影响。本分析是基于一艘客船的数据进行的,分别对不同航段下水流速度,主机转速,燃油消耗进行测量,并计算得到内河船舶营运能效。根据测量结果提出内河船舶营运能效提升策略,为内河航运业的节能减排提供帮助。     

含海水液压系统的试验研究

该文针对介质含海水的液压系统 (下简称含海水液压系统 )运行时所存在的各种问题 ,从专用液压油的研制着手 ,就专用液压油、液压设备 (包括元器件 )、液压系统三方面展开全面的试验研究 ,以探求含海水液压系统在海事工程和有关工程方面应用的可能性 ,并取得了相应的研究成果。     

内贸集装箱生成量的可拓聚类预测

回顾了我国水路内贸集装箱运输的发展历程,并对我国内贸箱的发展现状和存在的问题进行了分析。在此前提下,选择可拓聚类预测模型应用于内贸箱生成量的预测。通过1997年至2004年有关数据,对2005年内贸集装箱运输生成量进行预测,得到了与实际值比较理想的拟合结果。     

Maritime policy making for flag states: Forecasting safety/detention performance with the use of time series analysis

In this paper time series univariate forecast methods and analysis of time series is used in an innovative way, with the intention of assisting the flag state administrators to map and predefine their shipping quality policy. In general, given the number of ships detained by Port State Control (PSC) and corresponding inspections of the flag fleet for the same period of time, one is able to forecast the Paris Memorandum of Understanding (Paris MoU) excess factor of any flag state for a selected time window. Thus, depending on the goals of each flag state administration, one can judge their feasibility (e.g. remain in the Paris MOU White List or achieve an excess factor of —1 etc) and determine whether to enhance the safety measures or not. The method is first developed and discussed on an abstract basis to set the theoretical background, a combination of time series analysis and practical engineering philosophy. Then the study focuses upon the Cyprus Flag figures in Paris MOU ports, only to demonstrate its effectiveness but can in any case be applied upon any given flag. The application of the method suggested, combined with expert judgment, could result in a significant improvement of the flag quality.     

长三角感潮河段通闸新途径的探讨

随着长三角感潮河段船闸船舶量的迅猛增加,研究新型口门船闸布置与运行方案很有必要。结合南通船闸的运行特点及存在问题,经研究提出了新的船闸布置方案,即在现船闸下游适当的位置增设一个闸首,使现船闸具有3个闸首、2个闸室及2个引航道,提出了新的通闸运行方案和新船闸方案的主要技术要求。     

自升式平台桩靴/地基承载力的数值分析

桩靴/地基承载力的准确预报是确保自升式平台进行海上插桩作业安全性的重要前提,常规的规范算法在处理复杂地基条件时存在困难。基于非线性数值分析方法,在对加载点位置、网格尺寸、地基边界等关键技术进行研究的基础上,以某400ft水深自升式平台为例,分别对海底均质土和成层土的承载力进行了研究。同时,对各土层参数的影响进行了详细分析,为探索插桩过程中地基破坏原理和承载力计算提供了一些参考。     

促进集装箱码头节能减排的新型GRID系统

环境保护是我国的基本国策,港口是我国物流综合运输体系的枢纽和重要节点,担负着节能减排的艰巨任务。GRID系统是适用于港口集装箱码头水平运输的新型设备,GRID系统的装卸设备具有自重轻、作业环节少和全电力驱动等优点,有利于集装箱码头的节能减排。     

The use of PPP's and the profitability rate paradox

Over the past twenty years growth in the use of PPPs for new infrastructures has signalled a significant change which completely redefines the issues of public economics in the field of transport policy. This paper concerns the optimal casting between public sphere and private operators. The analysis is based on relationships linking for each project the subsidy rate, the internal rate of return (IRR) and the additional IRR provided to the operator by subsidies. The need for subsidy appears as an increasing function of this additional IRR. Nevertheless, the gradient of the curve decreases in a marked manner. This concavity has some policy oriented consequences.     

The 2008 New Zealand public transport management act: Rationale, key provisions, and parallels with the United Kingdom

In January 2009, following a lengthy industry review and consultation process, the New Zealand Public Transport Management Act (PTMA) came into force. The Act allows Regional Transport Authorities, as the primary procurers of public transport services, to place either a control or a contracting requirement upon services that are registered as commercial requiring no subsidy. The imposition of either the control or the contracting requirement is designed to facilitate greater system integration, improve service continuity and enhance services to the customer, andallow the Authority to invest in key strategic projects, such as integrated fares and ticketing, so as to grow patronage.The PTMA’s other objective is to ensure improved value for public subsidies. Recent years have seen significant subsidy inflation for seemingly little commensurate benefits. The Act will allow the Regional Transport Authority to achieve greater value for money through improved farebox, a shift to longer, larger contracts to increase competition in the market, a more appropriate allocation of risk, and the removal of the ability of operators to ‘game’ the current system by using strategically placed commercial services as barriers to competition.Similar concerns have also stimulated new legislation in the UK and this paper illustrates the parallels in the environment and proposed response.