Exploring vessel-price dynamics: the case of the dry bulk market

We investigate second-hand vessel price heterogeneity. Based on a sample of 5,591 purchase and sale transactions in the dry bulk sector over the period 1998–2016, we deploy a nonparametric regression technique to assess the determinants of vessel price and vessel price variability. Next, we use quantile regression to estimate the effect of regressors (sources of heterogeneity) at different parts of the vessel price distribution. We find evidence that main sources of vessel price heterogeneity are the age of the ship (the older the vessel the higher its maintenance cost), the 3-month LIBOR (reflecting the cost of financing) and the annual charter rate (revenues from operation). Their influence is stronger at all higher quantiles (periods of expansion) and the median of the vessel price distribution.     

Market efficiency within dry bulk markets in the short run: a multi-agent system dynamics Nash equilibrium

In this paper, we assess the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in relation to dry bulk shipping in the short run. The aim is to explain why freight rates in the different ship segments are highly correlated. By building a system dynamics model, which is well-suited to modelling complex and stochastic processes with limited data availability, we attempt to track the arbitrage process in which the different ship types (Handy, Panamax and Capesize) literally seek to transport each others’ cargoes (substitution) when this is beneficial. Also, within one ship segment, we govern the arbitrage opportunities arising from regional differences in freight rates. Although the EMH is ever more contested in the maritime literature, holistic and analytical proof is provided that efficiency is maintained through the intrinsic arbitrage free and evolutionary behaviour in the system towards the Nash equilibrium.     

Efficient pricing of ships in the dry bulk sector of the shipping industry

The aim of this paper was to investigate the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in conjunction with Rational Expectations in the formation of dry bulk ship prices over the period January 1976-December 1997. Tests for market efficiency include those of orthogonality and unpredictability of excess returns on investments and tests based on the Vector Autoregressive models proposed by Campbell and Shiller. The latter methodology is extended further to a 3-variable Vector Autoregressive model, which is applicable to real assets with limited economic life. Results indicate that prices for newbuilding and second-hand vessels are not determined efficiently in the sense of Fama. Failure of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the formation of ship prices is explained by the existence of timevarying risk premia, which relate excess returns to investors' perceptions of risk. These are modelled through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) models. The results have important implications for shipping investment strategies, both in the newbuilding and second-hand markets.     

Applying SMC pricing in PPPs for the maritime sector

This paper investigates whether Short-run Marginal Cost (SMC) pricing is feasible to implement in seaports and with what type of consequences, e.g. concerning cost coverage. Answering these questions requires an analysis of the cost structure of seaports and especially of seaport calls, as well as of how the division of these costs over the different actors runs. As from the moment that this information becomes available, it can be analysed to what extent SMC pricing can be applied in Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) within the seaport sector. Till now, mainly seaport infrastructure is involved, including the seaport entry from the open sea.     

浅谈海事单位建立经费管理运行机制

国库集中支付制度改革，对预算单位经费管理提出了更高的要求，程序更加严格，经费开支要严格执行预算，用款要有计划，支出必须符合规定。作为中央预算单位的直属海事系统各单位，如何进一步提高经费管理水平，以适应国库集中支付制度改革的要求，为海事业务正常开展和发展提供更好的保障是需要深入探讨的问题。     

2007年中国海事十大亮点

当2008年的新年钟声敲响之时，2007年所有的一切都已成为过去。回顾一年来的海事工作，发布《船员条例》、开展专项整治、举行应急演习、推进船员发展、召开海事论坛、提升海事地位……有太多的亮点值得回味。岁末年终，盘点2007年海事工作的十大亮点。既是为了铭刻走过的风雨历程，更是为了成就明天的辉煌事业。     

Price and volume dynamics in second-hand dry bulk and tanker shipping markets

The relationship between trading volume, prices and return volatility is thoroughly investigated in different second-hand dry bulk and tanker market segments. The objective is to gain fruitful insight on the sale and purchase market dynamics, and the sensitivity of vessel price movements following the arrival of new information signals in the shipping markets. Contemporaneous relationships are identified between returns and volume, particularly in the markets of handysize and panamax bulks as well as of handysize and aframax tankers. Price changes are found to have an impact on trading volume indicating that expectations to higher capital gains induce increases in trading activity. Volume appears to have a negative impact on the volatility of price changes mainly in the dry bulk market; this may be due to thin trading, limited transaction transparency and absence of vessel price quotes. The empirical findings can contribute to a better understanding of shipping markets’ microstructure and price volatility dynamics by market participants. This, in turn, can be useful for investors who construct their portfolios of real assets with a view to attain superior capital gains, controlling for the underlying investment risk.     

The choices of employing seafarers for the national shipowners in Taiwan: an empirical study

This paper focuses on the binary choice behavior of employing seafarers for the Taiwanese' national shipowners and embraces the empirical investigation based on the Binary Logit Model. First, three groups of important factors have been identified having a bearing on the national shipowners' hiring preferences: crew cost, competence and efficiency (including knowledge, skills, communication, physical and psychological attitude and conditions), as well as quality standard system complying with STCW95. Then, an empirical analysis, based on a Binary Logit Model about the national shipowners' choosing seafarers, is conducted to demonstrate the conceptual framework developed in this paper. The results show that the hiring decision is significantly affected by the crew cost. The national shipowners also consider several other factors when hiring officers and ratings. In addition, there are significant differences in hiring preference between the sailing international services and operating the liner ships. In the future, when the Measure shall be amended, the national shipowners will change their behavior to re-choose the foreign seafarers.     

关于海事行政执法自由裁量权的几点思考

文章论述了海事行政执法自由裁量权的定义、种类和目前行使海事行政执法自由裁量权存在的问题及造成这种问题的原因，提出了正确行使规范海事行政执法自由裁量权的建议。     

Capturing and sharing knowledge in supply chains in the maritime transport sector: critical issues

Modern businesses in the maritime transport industry are interfacing with a dynamic, increasingly complex, information-driven world. Information and knowledge are increasingly the intangible assets on which business sustainability and growth are founded. Knowledge is a dynamic, social resource. Trading networks are significant communities of practice. To create new knowledge from these, firms utilize learning contexts. In these learning contexts, participants interact and identify, capture and share new information. The learning context needs to facilitate the prevalence of these processes. The role and significance of the context to the capture and sharing of business learning and lifelong learning is considered in this paper. It investigates critical issues in the management of this learning context to enhance competitive advantage in supply chains and networks. Given the current and potential future skills shortages in the industry, key policy implications, such as the integration of work experience into the learning cycle, encouraging lifelong learning and the provision of dual sector pathways are outlined.     

物联网：引领海事科技创新的“智慧引擎”

2009年1月,为有效应对国际金融危机,美国政府出台了《经济复苏和再投资法》,将＂物联网＂和＂新能源＂列为重振美国经济和美国在21世纪继续保持和夺回竞争优势的两大武器和重要途径。2009年6月,欧盟执委会发表了《物联网行动方案》,提出要加强欧盟政府对物联网的管理,消除物联网发展的障碍,     

Assessment of investment decision in the dry bulk shipping market based on real options thinking and the shipping cycle perspective

As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market.     

Nonlinear plankton dynamics and pattern formation in an ecohydrodynamic model system

Nonlinear interactions, diffusion, transport and locomotion of species are described by a system of reaction-diffusion-advection equations. Its transient and stationary nonequilibrium solutions in space and time are considered as patchy patterns in natural chemical or biological communities. Recent results on the general mechanism of spatial pattern formation after flux-induced instabilities of a spatially uniform species distribution as well as on the effect of hydrodynamic forcing on spatial patterns in a minimal plankton model are summarized.     

海事核心价值观问题初探

海事核心价值观大讨论是针对不断变化的水运交通形势，对海事监管的系统性和全面性进行内部梳理的一次有益尝试。在广泛征集海事核心价值观理念的同时，也要注重核心价值观的科学性、有效性，只有经过仔细的论证、广泛地汲取建议，才能设立出符合当前形势并具有高度指导作用的核心价值观，才能更好地解决内外矛盾，实现和谐统一发展。     

双时滞计算机病毒传播模型在海上通信环境的动力学性质

海上通信环境建设是船舶信息化的基础和关键,计算机病毒对海上通信环境的安全性和可靠性提出挑战。因此,掌握海上通信环境下计算机病毒传播性质,对病毒控制具有重要意义。对计算机病毒传播动力学性质的研究,能够更好提高海上通信环境的安全性。根据生物病毒和计算机病毒的相似性,构建计算机病毒传播模型来实现对计算机病毒的分析。本文研究了双时滞计算机病毒传播模型及其动力学在海上通信环境下的性质,最后进行仿真实验。     

非线性盲信号均衡技术在海上通信系统中的应用及Sinmulink仿真

针对现代海上通信系统中多径信道以及海面多变天气引起通信信号干扰问题,研究了当前处理多径干扰的盲信号均衡技术,针对MPSK调制信号,改进了盲检测信号的权阵函数算法,并利用Matlab的针对通信系统专用仿真工具Simulink搭建了仿真平台。本文最后给出了不同信噪比条件下,该改进算法仿真得到的误码率曲线图。实验表明,该改进权阵函数算法能有效降低海上通信多径干扰以及海面噪声干扰,提高海面通信系统精度性。     

The price-volume relationship in the sale and purchase market for dry bulk vessels

This paper investigates, for the first time, the relationship between prices and trading activity in a market where real assets are traded, i.e. in the sale and purchase market for second-hand dry bulk vessels. Investigation of this issue is of interest since the level of trading activity may contain information about the sentiment and the future direction of the prices in the market. Several important conclusions emerge from this analysis. It is found that price changes are useful in predicting trading volume, which suggests that higher capital gains encourage more transactions in the market. Additionally, it seems that volume has a negative impact on the volatility of price changes. More specifically, in contrast to what is reported for financial markets, we find evidence that, in the market for ships, increases in trading activity lead to a reduction in market volatility. This can be explained by the unique underlying characteristics of the market for ships, including thin trading, which imply that increases in trading activity result in price transparency and stability. These findings indicate that practitioners in the market may use the information contained in the level of trading activity so as to guide their market decisions in the sale and purchase market.     

构建海事核心价值观要注意六点

构建海事核心价值观,在海事队伍中形成共同的价值取向和行为准则,在价值取向由单一逐渐发展到多元的大环境下,对于统一海事队伍内部思想、形成积极向上的价值取向具有重大意义。