A network‐based dynamic air traffic flow model for short‐term en route traffic prediction

This paper presents a dynamic network‐based approach for short‐term air traffic flow prediction in en route airspace. A dynamic network characterizing both the topological structure of airspace and the dynamics of air traffic flow is developed, based on which the continuity equation in fluid mechanics is adopted to describe the continuous behaviour of the en route traffic. Building on the network‐based continuity equation, the space division concept in cell transmission model is introduced to discretize the proposed model both in space and time. The model parameters are sequentially updated based on the statistical properties of the recent radar data and the new predicting results. The proposed method is applied to a real data set from Shanghai Area Control Center for the short‐term air traffic flow prediction both at flight path and en route sector level. The analysis of the case study shows that the developed method can characterize well the dynamics of the en route traffic flow, thereby providing satisfactory prediction results with appropriate uncertainty limits. The mean relative prediction errors are less than 0.10 and 0.14, and the absolute errors fall in the range of 0 to 1 and 0 to 3 in more than 95% time intervals respectively, for the flight path and en route sector level. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic airspace sectorisation for flight-centric operations

Today’s air traffic operations follow the paradigm of ‘flow follows structure’, which already limits the operational efficiency and punctuality of current air traffic movements. Therefore, we introduce the dynamic airspace sectorisation and consequently change this paradigm to the more appropriate approach of ‘structure follows flow’. The dynamic airspace sectorisation allows an efficient allocation of scarce resources considering operational, economic and ecological constraints in both nominal and variable air traffic conditions. Our approach clusters traffic patterns and uses evolutionary algorithms for optimisation of the airspace, focusing on high capacity utilisation through flexible use of airspace, appropriate distribution of task load for air traffic controllers and fast adaptation to changed operational constraints. We thereby offer a solution for handling non-convex airspace boundaries and provide a proof of concept using current operational airspace structures and enabling a flight-centric air traffic management. We are confident that our developed dynamic airspace sectorisation significantly contributes to the challenges of future airspace by providing appropriate structures for future 4D aircraft trajectories taking into account various operational aspects of air traffic such as temporally restricted areas, limited capacities, zones of convective weather or urban air mobility. Dynamic sectorisation is a key enabling technology in the achievement of the ambitious goals of Single European Sky and Flightpath 2050 through a reduction in coordination efforts, efficient resource allocation, reduced aircraft emissions, fewer detours, and minimisation of air traffic delays.     

Research review of air traffic management

As air transport demand keeps growing more quickly than system capacity, efficient and effective management of system capacity becomes essential to the operation of the future global air traffic system. Although research in the past two decades has made significant progress in relevant research fields, e.g. air traffic flow management and airport capacity modelling, research loopholes in air traffic management still exist and links between different research areas are required to enhance the system performance of air traffic management. Hence, the objective of this paper is to review systematically current research in the literature about the issue of air traffic management to prioritize productive research areas. Papers about air traffic management are discussed and categorized into two levels: system and airport. The system level of air transport research includes two main topics: air traffic flow management and airspace research. On the airport level, research topics are: airport capacity, airport facility utilization, aircraft operations in the airport terminal manoeuvring area as well as aircraft ground operations research. Potential research interests to focus on in the future are the integration between airspace capacity and airport capacity, the establishment of airport information systems to use airport capacity better, and the improvement in flight schedule planning to improve the reliability of schedule implementation.     

A knowledge-transfer-based learning framework for airspace operation complexity evaluation

A sector is a component airspace whose operation is allocated to an air traffic controller. The operation complexity of a sector plays a critical role in the current Air Traffic Management system, e.g. it determines the workload volume of air traffic controllers and serves as a reliable index for airspace configuration and traffic flow management. Therefore, accurately evaluating the sector operation complexity is a problem of paramount importance in both practice and research. Due to numerous interacting factors, traditional methods based on only one single complexity indicator fail to accurately reflect the true complexity, especially when these factors are nonlinearly correlated. In light of these, the attempt to use machine learning models to mine the complex factor-complexity relationship has prevailed recently. The performance of these models however relies heavily on sufficient samples. The high cost of collecting ample data often results in a small training set, adversely impacting on the performance that these machine learning models can achieve. To overcome this problem, this paper for the first time proposes a new sector operation complexity evaluation framework based on knowledge transfer specifically for small-training-sample environment. The proposed framework is able to effectively mine knowledge hidden within the samples of the target sector, i.e. the sector undergoes evaluation, as well as other sectors, i.e. non-target sectors. Moreover, the framework can properly handle the integration between the knowledge derived from different sectors. Extensive experiments on real data of 6 sectors in China illustrate that our proposed framework can achieve promising performance on complexity evaluation when only a small training set of the target sector is available.     

Airport congestion and near-midair collisions

This paper presents a model that systematically integrates, for the first time, the association between a region's aviation near-midair collision risk and its traffic levels, its type and amount of air traffic control, and the complexity of its airspace. The model incorporates the tight interrelatedness (and correlation) between traffic, airspace complexity, and air traffic controller staffing. An estimation of the model using cross-sectional data on 143 U.S. airports in 1985 indicates that the frequency of reported near-midair collisions (NMACs) is positively associated with regional traffic and airspace complexity, despite the fact that busier, more complex regions generally have more air traffic controllers. Also, in regions governed by “terminal radar service areas” (TRSAs), the reported near-midair collisions are positively associated with the presence of more satellite airports than would be expected on the basis of traffic alone. Finally, deviations from controller staffing levels that would be expected on the basis of traffic and airspace complexity alone are significantly associated with variations in reported NMACs in terminal control areas but not in terminal radar service areas.     

ATCEM: a synthetic model for evaluating air traffic complexity

Air traffic complexity, which measures the disorder of air traffic distribution, has become the critical indicator to reflect air traffic controller workload in air traffic management (ATM) system. However, it is hard to assess the system accurately because there are too many correlated factors, which make the air traffic complexity nonlinear. This paper presents an air traffic complexity evaluation model with integrated classification using computational intelligence (ATCEM). To avoid redundant factors, critical factors contributing to complexity are analyzed and selected from numerous factors in the ATCEM. Subsequently, to construct the mapping relationship between selected factors and air traffic complexity, an integrated classifier is built in ATCEM. With efficient training and learning based on aviation domain knowledge, the integrated classifier can effectively and stably reflect the mapping relationship between selected factors and the category of air traffic complexity to ensure the precision of the evaluation. Empirical studies using real data of the southwest airspace of China show that the ATCEM outperforms a number of state‐of‐the‐art models. Moreover, using the critical complexity factors selected in ATCEM, the air traffic complexity could be effectively estimated. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi-objective approach for Dynamic Airspace Sectorization using agent based and geometric models

A key limitation when accommodating the continuing air traffic growth is the fixed airspace structure including sector boundaries. The geometry of sectors has stayed relatively constant despite the fact that route structures and demand have changed dramatically over the past decade. Dynamic Airspace Sectorization is a concept where the airspace is redesigned dynamically to accommodate changing traffic demands. Various methods have been proposed to dynamically partition the airspace to accommodate the traffic growth while satisfying other sector constraints and efficiency metrics. However, these approaches suffer from several operational drawbacks, and their computational complexity increases fast as the airspace size and traffic volume increase. In this paper, we evaluate and identify the gaps in existing 3D sectorization methods, and propose an improved Agent Based Model (iABM) to address these gaps. We also propose three additional models using KD-Tree, Bisection and Voronoi Diagrams in 3D, to partition the airspace to satisfy the convexity constraint and reduce computational cost. We then augment these methods with a multi-objective optimization approach that uses four objectives: minimizing the variance of controller workload across the sectors, maximizing the average sector flight time, and minimizing the distance between sector boundaries and the traffic flow crossing points. Experimental results show that iABM has the best performance on workload balancing, but it is restrictive when it comes to the convexity constraint. Bisection- and Voronoi Diagram-based models perform worse than iABM on workload balancing but better on average sector flight time, and they can satisfy the convexity constraint. The KD-tree-based model has a lower computational cost, but with a poor performance on the given objectives.     

Multi-scale perimeter control approach in a connected-vehicle environment

This paper proposes a novel approach to integrate optimal control of perimeter intersections (i.e. to minimize local delay) into the perimeter control scheme (i.e. to optimize traffic performance at the network level). This is a complex control problem rarely explored in the literature. In particular, modeling the interaction between the network level control and the local level control has not been fully considered. Utilizing the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) as the traffic performance indicator, we formulate a dynamic system model, and design a Model Predictive Control (MPC) based controller coupling two competing control objectives and optimizing the performance at the local and the network level as a whole. To solve this highly non-linear optimization problem, we employ an approximation framework, enabling the optimal solution of this large-scale problem to be feasible and efficient. Numerical analysis shows that by applying the proposed controller, the protected network can operate around the desired state as expressed by the MFD, while the total delay at the perimeter is minimized as well. Moreover, the paper sheds light on the robustness of the proposed controller. This multi-scale hybrid controller is further extended to a stochastic MPC scheme, where connected vehicles (CV) serve as the only data source. Hence, low penetration rates of CVs lead to strong noises in the controller. This is a first attempt to develop a network-level traffic control methodology by using the emerging CV technology. We consider the stochasticity in traffic state estimation and the shape of the MFD. Simulation analysis demonstrates the robustness of the proposed stochastic controller, showing that efficient controllers can indeed be designed with this newly-spread vehicle technology even in the absence of other data collection schemes (e.g. loop detectors).     

The Time Dependent Traveling Salesman Planning Problem in Controlled Airspace

The integration of drones into civil airspace is one of the most challenging problems for the automation of the controlled airspace, and the optimization of the drone route is a key step for this process. In this paper, we optimize the route planning of a drone mission that consists of departing from an airport, flying over a set of mission way points and coming back to the initial airport. We assume that during the mission a set of piloted aircraft flies in the same airspace and thus the cost of the drone route depends on the air traffic and on the avoidance maneuvers used to prevent possible conflicts. Two air traffic management techniques, i.e., routing and holding, are modeled in order to maintain a minimum separation between the drone and the piloted aircraft. The considered problem, called the Time Dependent Traveling Salesman Planning Problem in Controlled Airspace (TDTSPPCA), relates to the drone route planning phase and aims to minimize the total operational cost. Two heuristic algorithms are proposed for the solution of the problem. A mathematical formulation based on a particular version of the Time Dependent Traveling Salesman Problem, which allows holdings at mission way points, and a Branch and Cut algorithm are proposed for solving the TDTSPPCA to optimality. An additional formulation, based on a Travelling Salesman Problem variant that uses specific penalties to model the holding times, is proposed and a Cutting Plane algorithm is designed. Finally, computational experiments on real-world air traffic data from Milano Linate Terminal Maneuvering Area are reported to evaluate the performance of the proposed formulations and of the heuristic algorithms.     

Setting navigational performance standards for aircraft flying over the oceans

Aircraft operating over the oceans are not tracked by air traffic control radars. Separation between aircraft in oceanic airspace is maintained by assigning each a block of airspace within which it is expected to remain without benefit of realtime monitoring to detect and correct navigational errors. A collision could occur of one aircraft deviates from its assigned course sufficiently to violate the airspace of another. To keep the risk of collision acceptably low in the heavily travelled North Atlantic region, the frequency of large course deviations is controlled by imposing navigational performance requirements on airspace users, together with separation minima. This paper describes the process by which a minimum navigational performance specification was developed and implemented for this region.     

An expert system for air traffic flow management

An expert system for the air traffic flow management (ATFM) problem is presented. Two main prototypes have been constructed, one for timetable rescheduling that attempts to modify airline timetables to smooth traffic peaks at airports during rush-hours and another for centralized flow control that works to forecast the place, time and magnitude of the congestion and to propose mitigative actions. Simulations for the Brazilian ATFM, including the principal 14 airports, show the potential usefulness of the expert system.     

An efficient algorithm for smoothing airspace congestion by fine-tuning take-off times

Current technological advances in communications and navigation have improved air traffic management (ATM) with new decision support tools to balance airspace capacity with user demands. Despite agreements achieved in flying reference business trajectories (RBTs) among different stakeholders, tight spatio-temporal connectivity between trajectories in dense sectors can cause perturbations that might introduce time or space deviations into the original RBTs, thus potentially affecting other 4D trajectories. In this paper, several challenging results are presented by properly tuning the Calculated Take-Off Times (CTOTs) as a tool for mitigating the propagation of perturbations between trajectories that can readily appear in dense sectors. Based on the identification of “collective microregions”, a tool for predicting potential spatio-temporal concurrence events between trajectories over the European airspace was developed, together with a CTOT algorithm to sequence the departures that preserve the scheduled slots while relaxing tight trajectory interactions. The algorithm was tested by considering a realistic scenario (designed and analyzed in the STREAM project (Stream, 2013)) to evaluate relevant ATM KPIs that provide aggregated information about the sensitivity of the system to trajectory interactions, taking into account the system dynamics at a network level. The proposed approach contributes to enhancing the ATM capacity of airports to mitigate network perturbations.     

Model based urban traffic control,part I: Local model and local model predictive controllers

This paper is the first in a series of reports presenting a framework for the hierarchical design of feedback controllers for traffic lights in urban networks. The goal of the research is to develop an easy to understand methodology for designing model based feedback controllers that use the current state estimate in order to select the next switching times of traffic lights. In this paper we introduce an extension of the cell transmission model that describes with sufficient accuracy the major causes of delay for urban traffic. We show that this model is computationally fast enough such that it can be used in a model predictive controller that decides for each intersection, taking into account the vehicle density as estimated along all links connected to the intersection, what switching time minimizes the local delay for all vehicles over a prediction horizon of a few minutes. The implementation of this local MPC only requires local online measurements and local model information (unlike the coordinated MPC, to be introduced in the next paper in this series, that takes into account interactions between neighbouring intersections). We study the performance of the proposed local MPC via simulation on a simple 4 by 4 Manhattan grid, comparing its delay with an efficiently tuned pretimed control for the traffic lights, and with traffic lights controlled according to the max pressure rule. These simulations show that the proposed local MPC controller achieves a significant reduction in delay for various traffic conditions.     

Integrated sequencing and merging aircraft to parallel runways with automated conflict resolution and advanced avionics capabilities

Congestion in Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) in hub airports is the main problem in Chinese air transportation. In this paper we propose a new system to integrated sequence and merge aircraft to parallel runways at Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA). This system is based on the advanced avionics capabilities. Our methodology integrates a Multi-Level Point Merge (ML-PM) system, an economical descent approaches procedure, and a tailored heuristic algorithm to find a good, systematic, operationally-acceptable solution. First, Receding Horizontal Control (RHC) technique is applied to divide the entire 24 h of traffic into several sub-problems. Then in each sub-problem, it is optimized on given objectives (conflict, deviation from Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) on the runway and makespan of the arrival flow). Four decision variables are designed to control the trajectory: the entry time, the entry speed, the turning time on the sequencing leg, and the landing runway allocation. Based on these variables, the real time trajectories are generated by the simulation module. Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm is used to search the best solution for aircraft to execute. Finally, the conflict-free, least-delay, and user-preferred trajectories from the entry point of TMA to the landing runway are defined. Numerical results show that our optimization system has very stable de-conflict performance to handle continuously dense arrivals in transition airspace. It can also provide the decision support to assist flow controllers to handle the asymmetric arrival flows on different runways with less fuel consumption, and to assist tactical controllers to easily re-sequence aircraft with more relaxed position shifting. Moreover, our system can provide the fuel consumption prediction, and runway assignment information to assist airport and airlines managers for optimal decision making. Theoretically, it realizes an automated, cooperative and green control of routine arrival flows. Although the methodology defined here is applied to the airport BCIA, it could also be applied to other airports in the world.     

Evaluating the impacts of urban corridor traffic signal optimization on vehicle emissions and fuel consumption

This study investigates the impacts of traffic signal timing optimization on vehicular fuel consumption and emissions at an urban corridor. The traffic signal optimization approach proposed integrates a TRANSIMS microscopic traffic simulator, the VT-Micro model (a microscopic emission and fuel consumption estimation model), and a genetic algorithm (GA)-based optimizer. An urban corridor consisting of four signalized intersections in Charlottesville, VA, USA, is used for a case study. The result of the case study is then compared with the best traffic signal timing plan generated by Synchro using the TRANSIMS microscopic traffic simulator. The proposed approach achieves much better performance than that of the best Synchro solution in terms of air quality, energy and mobility measures: 20% less network-wide fuel consumption, 8–20% less vehicle emissions, and nearly 27% less vehicle-hours-traveled (VHT).     

Surrounding traffic complexity analysis for efficient and stable conflict resolution

The constant increase in air traffic demand increases a probability of the separation minima infringements in certain areas as a consequence of increased traffic density. The Annual Safety Report 2016 reports that in recent years the number of infringements, measured per million flight hours, had been increased at a lower rate (Eurocontrol, 2018). However, this level of infringements still generates a continuous pressure on the air traffic control (ATC) system and seeks for more control resources ready to tactically solve potential conflicts, while increasing at the same time the operational costs. Considering present air traffic management (ATM) trade-off criteria: increased airspace capacity and traffic efficiency but reducing the cost while preserving safety, new services must be designed to distribute the separation management ATC task loads among other actors. Based on the Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research and Next Generation Air Transportation System initiatives, this paper proposes an innovative separation management service to shift the completely centralized tactical ATC interventions to more efficient decentralized tactical operations relying on an advanced surrounding traffic analysis tool, to preserve the safety indicators while considering the operational efficiency. A developed methodology for the proposed service is an application-oriented, trying to respond to characteristics and requirements of the current operational environment. The paper further analysis the traffic complexity taking into consideration the so-called domino effect, i.e. a number of the surrounding aircraft causally involved in the separation management service by the means of identification of the spatiotemporal interdependencies between them and the conflicting aircraft. This complexity is driven by the interdependencies structure and expressed as a time-criticality in quantifying the total number of the system solutions, that varies over time as the aircraft are approaching to each other. The results from two randomly selected ecosystem scenarios, extracted from a simulated traffic, illustrate different avoidance capacities for a given look-ahead time and the system solutions counts, that in discrete moments reach zero value.     

Dynamics of heterogeneity in urban networks: aggregated traffic modeling and hierarchical control

Real traffic data and simulation analysis reveal that for some urban networks a well-defined Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) exists, which provides a unimodal and low-scatter relationship between the network vehicle density and outflow. Recent studies demonstrate that link density heterogeneity plays a significant role in the shape and scatter level of MFD and can cause hysteresis loops that influence the network performance. Evidently, a more homogeneous network in terms of link density can result in higher network outflow, which implies a network performance improvement. In this article, we introduce two aggregated models, region- and subregion-based MFDs, to study the dynamics of heterogeneity and how they can affect the accuracy scatter and hysteresis of a multi-subregion MFD model. We also introduce a hierarchical perimeter flow control problem by integrating the MFD heterogeneous modeling. The perimeter flow controllers operate on the border between urban regions, and manipulate the percentages of flows that transfer between the regions such that the network delay is minimized and the distribution of congestion is more homogeneous. The first level of the hierarchical control problem can be solved by a model predictive control approach, where the prediction model is the aggregated parsimonious region-based MFD and the plant (reality) is formulated by the subregion-based MFDs, which is a more detailed model. At the lower level, a feedback controller of the hierarchical structure, tries to maximize the outflow of critical regions, by increasing their homogeneity. With inputs that can be observed with existing monitoring techniques and without the need for detailed traffic state information, the proposed framework succeeds to increase network flows and decrease the hysteresis loop of the MFD. Comparison with existing perimeter controllers without considering the more advanced heterogeneity modeling of MFD highlights the importance of such approach for traffic modeling and control.     

A comparative study of Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams of arterial road networks governed by adaptive traffic signal systems

Using a stochastic cellular automaton model for urban traffic flow, we study and compare Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (MFDs) of arterial road networks governed by different types of adaptive traffic signal systems, under various boundary conditions. In particular, we simulate realistic signal systems that include signal linking and adaptive cycle times, and compare their performance against a highly adaptive system of self-organizing traffic signals which is designed to uniformly distribute the network density. We find that for networks with time-independent boundary conditions, well-defined stationary MFDs are observed, whose shape depends on the particular signal system used, and also on the level of heterogeneity in the system. We find that the spatial heterogeneity of both density and flow provide important indicators of network performance. We also study networks with time-dependent boundary conditions, containing morning and afternoon peaks. In this case, intricate hysteresis loops are observed in the MFDs which are strongly correlated with the density heterogeneity. Our results show that the MFD of the self-organizing traffic signals lies above the MFD for the realistic systems, suggesting that by adaptively homogenizing the network density, overall better performance and higher capacity can be achieved.     

Robust identification of air traffic flow patterns in Metroplex terminal areas under demand uncertainty

Multi-Airport Systems (MAS), or Metroplexes, serve air traffic demand in cities with two or more airports. Due to the spatial proximity and operational interdependency of the airports, Metroplex airspaces are characterized by high complexity, and current system structures fail to provide satisfactory utilization of the available airspace resources. In order to support system-level design and management towards increased operational efficiency in such systems, an accurate depiction of major demand patterns is a prerequisite. This paper proposes a framework for the robust identification of significant air traffic flow patterns in Metroplex systems, which is aligned with the dynamic route service policy for the effective management of Metroplex operations. We first characterize deterministic demand through a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm that takes into account changes in the traffic flows over the planning horizon. Then, in order to handle uncertainties in the demand, a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) approach is proposed, which takes into account demand variations and prediction errors in a robust way to ensure the reliability of the demand identification. The DRO-based approach is applied on pre-tactical (i.e. one-day planning) as well as operational levels (i.e. 2-h rolling horizon). The framework is applied to Time Based Flow Management (TBFM) data from the New York Metroplex. The framework and results are validated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs).