The Signs of the Times: Imposing a Globally Signed Condition on Willingness to Pay Distributions

A feature of recent developments in choice models that enable estimation of the distribution of willingness to pay (WTP) is that the sign of the distribution can change over the range. Behaviourally this often makes little sense for attributes such as travel time on non-discretionary travel, despite a growing recognition of positive utility over some travel time ranges. This can in part be attributed to the analytical distribution that is selected (except the cumbersome lognormal), many of which are unconstrained over the full range. Although a number of analysts have imposed constraints on various distributions for random parameters that can satisfy the single-sign condition, these restrictions are, with rare exception, only satisfied for the mean and the standard deviation estimates of a random parameter. When heterogeneity around the mean and/or heteroscedasticity around the standard deviation is allowed for, however, the constraint condition is often not satisfied. Given the popularity of distributions other than the lognormal, in order to satisfy the sign condition under the most general form of parameterisation, we need to impose a global sign condition. In this paper we show how this might be achieved in the context of the valuation of travel time savings for car commuters choosing amongst an offered set of route-specific travel times and costs. We illustrate the impact of the constraint under a globally constrained Rayleigh distribution for total travel time parameterisation, contrasting the evidence with a multinomial logit model and a range of other distributional assumptions within the mixed logit framework. Discussions with Bill Greene, John Rose, Ken Train and especially Juan de Dios Ortuzar have been invaluable as have the comments of referees.     

Real-time crash prediction for expressway weaving segments

Weaving segments are potential recurrent bottlenecks which affect the efficiency and safety of expressways during peak hours. Meanwhile, they are one of the most complicated segments, since on- and off-ramp traffic merges, diverges and weaves in the limited space. One effective way to improve the safety of weaving segments is to study crash likelihood using real-time crash data with the objective of, identifying hazardous conditions and reducing the risk of crashes by Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) traffic control. This study presents a multilevel Bayesian logistic regression model for crashes at expressway weaving segments using crash, geometric, Microwave Vehicle Detection System (MVDS) and weather data. The results show that the mainline speed at the beginning of the weaving segments, the speed difference between the beginning and the end of weaving segment, logarithm of volume have significant impacts on the crash risk of the following 5–10 min for weaving segments. The configuration is also an important factor. Weaving segment, in which there is no need for on- or off-ramp traffic to change lane, is with high crash risk because it has more traffic interactions and higher speed differences between weaving and non-weaving traffic. Meanwhile, maximum length, which measures the distance at which weaving turbulence no longer has impact, is found to be positively related to the crash risk at the 95% confidence interval. In addition to traffic and geometric factors, wet pavement surface condition significantly increases the crash ratio by 77%. The proposed model along with ITS, e.g., ramp metering, Dynamic Message Sign (DMS), and high friction surface treatment can be used to enhance the safety of weaving segments in real-time.     

管道输气系统的模拟研究

分析了天然气长输管线系统的实际运行规律,建立了带压气站的长输管线静、动态混合数学模型,并对其进行求解,得出长输管线一般的运行规律.     

Motorway crash duration and its determinants: do durations vary across motorways?

Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems, which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard‐based models to develop in‐depth insights into how the crash‐specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland, and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, has been compared with random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data, and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway 1 exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared with the durations on motorway 2. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway.     

The reliability of using the gravity model for forecasting trip distribution

The main purpose of this study is to assess the forecasting capability of the gravity model and to investigate the merit of including K-factors when using the model. Peak hour trip data was obtained for four study year periods 1962, 1971, 1976 and 1981 for the City of Winnipeg. Analysis of the calibration results indicated that the F-factors for the twenty year period were stable within a range of values. In general, however, the K-factors were found to be inconsistent from one prediction period to the next, and when used in forecasting trips they resulted in larger errors than without their use. The validity of using K-factors or the method which has been used to determine them is questionable. It was concluded that while K-factors are very meaningful in theory (as defined), they are not appropriate for use in predicting O-D matrices based on the method by which they are currently estimated (i.e. as a simple ratio). Further study is needed to investigate an alternative method of calibrating the gravity model such as the cell-by-cell regression method.     

F型与直壁型护栏在客车撞击下的仿真研究

为了对比研究A类防撞等级中F型混凝土护栏和直壁型混凝土护栏的防护性能,建立两种护栏与客车的有限元模型,运用ANSYS Workbench软件中显式动力学模块,控制仿真碰撞的试验参数,将大客车模型以规定的初速度和碰撞角度进行计算机仿真碰撞试验,从车辆的加速度、车辆运行轨迹、护栏的最大动态变形量等方面综合对比两种护栏的防护性能。结果表明:相比直壁式护栏,F型混凝土护栏防撞性能、安全性能、导向性能较好。     

The multinomial logit model revisited: A semi-parametric approach in discrete choice analysis

The multinomial logit model in discrete choice analysis is widely used in transport research. It has long been known that the Gumbel distribution forms the basis of the multinomial logit model. Although the Gumbel distribution is a good approximation in some applications such as route choice problems, it is chosen mainly for mathematical convenience. This can be restrictive in many other scenarios in practice. In this paper we show that the assumption of the Gumbel distribution can be substantially relaxed to include a large class of distributions that is stable with respect to the minimum operation. The distributions in the class allow heteroscedastic variances. We then seek a transformation that stabilizes the heteroscedastic variances. We show that this leads to a semi-parametric choice model which links the linear combination of travel-related attributes to the choice probabilities via an unknown sensitivity function. This sensitivity function reflects the degree of travelers’ sensitivity to the changes in the combined travel cost. The estimation of the semi-parametric choice model is also investigated and empirical studies are used to illustrate the developed method.     

Variation in the value of travel time savings and its impact on the benefits of managed lanes

This paper examines the variation in the value of travel time savings (VTTS) for travelers with a managed lane (ML) option when taking an ordinary trip versus a trip that is unusual in some way. VTTS estimates vary substantially depending on the urgency of the trip made. At the low end, the mean VTTS for a traveler who wants to make extra stops and still arrive on time is approximately 10% higher than that for an ordinary trip. At the high end, a traveler running late for an appointment shows a mean VTTS that is approximately 300% higher than that for an ordinary trip. These estimates vary widely over the population of travelers. In light of these variations, the value of an uncongested travel alternative (such as MLs) is examined and found to be greatly undervalued if using typical VTTS estimates.     

Optimisation of motorway operations via ramp metering and variable speed limits

This paper presents a modelling and optimisation framework for deriving ramp metering and variable speed control strategies. We formulate the optimal control problems aiming to minimise the travel delay on motorways based upon a macroscopic cell transmission model of traffic. The optimal ramp metering optimisation is formulated as a linear programming (LP) while the variable speed control problem is formulated as a mixed integer LP. The optimisation models are applied to a real scenario over a section of M25 motorway in the UK. This paper also includes various analyses on the sensitivity of the optimal control solutions with respect to different network configurations and model assumptions.