实时流场预报及在海面溢油轨迹预测中的应用

本文提出了舟山定普港域三维实时流场数值预报和调和预报方法,并在海面溢油轨迹预测应用实例中作了验证。结果表明,该方法能较准确地预报港域内流场的空间和时间分布,由预报流场驱动的溢油轨迹同实测结果一致,适合于在海上溢油事故等环境问题中使用。     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in a coastal zone

A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters.In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model.     

珠江口区域海上溢油动态预测信息系统的开发与应用

为了对《珠江口区域溢油应急计划》提供决策支持,在国内外相关研究成果基础上,针对珠江口海域的特点,研究开发了先进实用的"珠江口区域海上溢油动态预报信息系统",综合了三维潮流模型、三维溢油扩散模型、溢油风化模型、应急反应模型、以及电子海图、地理信息系统(GIS)、数据库等关键技术。该系统可以预测模拟并可视化显示海上溢油的漂移扩散和性质变化过程,同时显示环境敏感区和应急人员设备分布等相关信息。实际溢油应用案例表明,该系统的预报模拟结果与现场实际情况完全相符,能有效地提高海上溢油污染事故的应急决策效率。     

三峡库区溢油预报模型构建及数值模拟

随着三峡库区通航条件改善和船舶流量的不断增加,库区水上溢油风险形势日益严峻.综合考虑风、流的作用,结合水动力方程、溢油漂移扩散的“油粒子”模型等,设计了适用于三峡库区船舶溢油预报模型,并从应急的角度出发,对水动力模型进行并行化改造,提高了预报速度.在此基础上对175 m水位库区的假想溢油事故进行了模拟,初步检验了溢油预测模型的效果.     

海上溢油应急能力评估研究

针对目前我国海上溢油应急能力评估现状,借鉴国内外其他领域应急能力评估模式的先进经验,建立了包含5个一级指标,20个二级指标的海上溢油应急能力评估指标体系.运用改进的层次分析法得出不同层次指标的权重,并结合某海区溢油应急能力现状评分,得到该海区海上溢油应急能力等级.研究表明,该评价指标体系合理、实用,可为海上溢油应急能力...     

模糊综合评价法在船舶溢油事故定级中的应用

对船舶溢油事故定级很有必要.通过模糊数学的方法,建立船舶溢油事故定级的评判模型,为事故定级评判提供了依据.通过实例,给出了具体的评价过程,证明该方法对于船舶溢油事故定级有借鉴作用,但此方法尚处于研究阶段.     

利用雷达建立近岸海域溢油污染监测体系的探索

文章首先介绍了目前发达国家所采取的沿海溢油监测监视防范体系,分析了雷达数据在其监测监视体系中的地位和作用,然后介绍了我国在沿海溢油监测监视防范体系建设方面的现状,并分析了制约雷达数据在我国实际应用中存在的问题。利用Envisat的ASAR数据对发生在西班牙海域的溢油事件进行了半自动化的溢油油膜范围的提取,给出了处理结果,并对目前国外就雷达数据在其监视监测体系中的应用方法进行了介绍。根据国内外沿海溢油监测监视体系的现状对比和国内制约因素的分析,结合实例数据的分析处理结果,表明雷达数据在沿海溢油监测中具有突出优点,未来在我国近岸海域溢油监测体系中将得到较为广泛的应用。     

Total oil spill costs and compensations

Although counteracting environmental programmes and policies have been strengthened, large oil spills still occur at irregular intervals. The total oil spill costs and their compensations have attracted much interest from various parties, such as local stakeholders, and state and federal governments. This paper addresses five major cost categories whose aggregations are expected to cover the overall direct and indirect costs after the release of an oil spill. Among them, research costs should not be neglected, since they tend to be high if public attention has been drawn to the case. Through an examination of the relationship between the total oil spill costs and their admissible claims, we found that:

1. admissible claims do not cover the overall costs of the oil spill, and
2. admissible claims cannot be compensated in full in the case of large spills.

Clearly, a sound oil spill contingency management aims to minimize both the environmental impacts of areas most at risk and the total oil spill costs. In this paper an economic model for measuring environmental damages following an oil spill is addressed and applied to the Prestige case which happened to be the worst oil pollution in the history of Spain. The model indicates how an ideally a priori economic evaluation may intuitively help managers to make informed as well as fast decisions in contingency cases.     

水上溢油应急装备跟踪定位浮标关键技术研究

文中介绍了近年来国内外溢油事故危害及应急技术现状,针对当前海上溢油难以跟踪定位的难题,提出了溢油跟踪定位浮标技术解决方案,采用北斗卫星定位通信为平台,实现海上溢油的全过程、全天候的实时跟踪、监测功能,通过海上试验验证,溢油跟踪定位浮标为海上溢油事故应急快速反应提供了一种有力工具．     

Total oil spill costs and compensations

Although counteracting environmental programmes and policies have been strengthened, large oil spills still occur at irregular intervals. The total oil spill costs and their compensations have attracted much interest from various parties, such as local stakeholders, and state and federal governments. This paper addresses five major cost categories whose aggregations are expected to cover the overall direct and indirect costs after the release of an oil spill. Among them, research costs should not be neglected, since they tend to be high if public attention has been drawn to the case. Through an examination of the relationship between the total oil spill costs and their admissible claims, we found that:

1. admissible claims do not cover the overall costs of the oil spill, and

2. admissible claims cannot be compensated in full in the case of large spills.

Clearly, a sound oil spill contingency management aims to minimize both the environmental impacts of areas most at risk and the total oil spill costs. In this paper an economic model for measuring environmental damages following an oil spill is addressed and applied to the Prestige case which happened to be the worst oil pollution in the history of Spain. The model indicates how an ideally a priori economic evaluation may intuitively help managers to make informed as well as fast decisions in contingency cases.     

油船溢油风险评价指标体系的构建及应用

分析油船溢油的主要原因,根据系统分析和层次分析相结合的原则建立油船溢油风险评价的多级评价指标体系,运用模糊数学中层次分析法结合对专家调查问卷的结果,综合分析给出油船溢油风险评价各指标的权重。将所建立的模型应用到实际油船,给出降低风险的措施。     

Operational Oceanography System applied to the Prestige oil-spillage event

This contribution describes the procedure used during the Prestige oil-spillage event, by means of an Operational Oceanography System, and the behaviour of the present prediction tools (hydrodynamic and dispersion models) applied to it. The accuracy of these tools is estimated by a reanalysis of field data transmitted by a sea surface drifting buoy, released at the time of the oil spill. The numerical models applied were the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), fed by the available six-hourly NCEP atmospheric information, together with a Lagrangian Particle-Tracking Model (LPTM). ROMS has been used to estimate the current fields for the Bay of Biscay, whilst the LPTM has provided the oil spill trajectories. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of the numerical models depends upon the quality of the meteorological input data. In this case, the current fields at the sea surface, derived by ROMS, have been underestimated by the wind fields of the NCEP reanalysis data. An efficient calibration of these wind fields, with data provided by the Gascony buoy (fixed oceanic and atmospheric station), achieves more realistic looking results; this is reflected in the comparison between the buoy trajectory predicted numerically and the tracked movements of the drifting buoy.     

石化码头溢油风险分析

以石化码头溢油风险作为研究对象,通过评价和分析,找到石化码头较为常见的溢油风险点,并结合风险点提出相关可行性建议。     

卫星遥感监视系统（RSMS）：海事执法新添高科技手段

近年来,海上溢油事故时有发生,造成了严重的环境污染。卫星遥感监视系统能够对海面溢油进行有效监视,对船舶非法排污行为产生威慑作用。文中重点介绍了卫星遥感监视系统的由来和在海事执法中的应用,特别是2009年以来常规监视工作的开展,为海事执法提供了新的高科技手段。     

从溢油处理技术的需求论多功能溢油回收船型的开发

本文是作者参与和从事多功能溢油回收船型开发工作的总结。文章比较系统地分析研究了溢油的监视、围控和回收等关键技术和设备、措施，指出了多功能溢油回收船应该具备的技术特点，并提出了对多功能溢油回收船型的开发和设计工作的若干建议，可供从事此种船舶的项目开发和设计参考应用。     

溢油漂移轨迹回推技术在海事调查中的应用

海上油污染事故调查是海事监管的重要职责。近年来,屡有不明来源油污事件发生,溢油时间不明,调查难度大。基于大气、水动力模型和溢油模型的溢油漂移轨迹回推技术能够实现对不明来源油污的回推溯源,通过回推结果指导海事调查的方向,缩小排查范围,在实际应用中取得了良好的效果。     

Use of a probabilistic particle tracking model to simulate the Prestige oil spill

A probabilistic particle tracking model is used to simulate the oil dispersion after the Prestige wreckage. This oil spill constitutes a suitable benchmark to analyze the capabilities of a probabilistic model, since the time elapsed from wreckage to oil landing (12 days) is much longer than the reliability time associated with forecast winds, usually on the order of 3–4 days. The particle model can be run in two different modes: real time mode (when existing reliable wind fields for the event under scope) and in probabilistic mode (in absence of reliable wind fields but with historical fields corresponding to a similar period). The validity of the particle model is first evaluated in a hindcast way, running the Prestige case with the wind fields corresponding to the period November 19 to November 30, 2002, which were not available at the moment of the wreckage. Calculations show the accuracy of the model to provide the right impact point and timing. The probabilistic model is then used to simulate the same event by means of historical data. The region where the oil landed is shown to be the area with the highest probability to be impacted.     

溢油应急培训现状与思考

分析了溢油应急培训现状及存在的实际问题,并在此基础上提出了加强溢油应急培训的意见和建议。     

墨西哥湾漏油事件中溢油应对处理方案研究

伴随着我国能源需求及海上石油运输量的大幅增长,我国海上发生溢油事故的风险也不断加大,针对海上大型溢油事故制定有效的溢油应对处理方案已成为我国的当务之急.该文通过对2010年4月发生在墨西哥湾的英国石油公司“深水地平线”平台泄漏事件进行研究,分析收集了此次事故过程中美国采用的主要溢油应急处理方案及值得借鉴的手段,为我国研究海上溢油应急方案提供了重要的参考和依据.     

天津港某液体化工码头船舶污染影响模拟研究

本研究以潮流计算结果和风场资料分析结果为依据,采用溢油模型对海上溢油的扩散、漂移和岸线吸附等物化过程进行模拟,分析研究预测油膜的演变,预测油膜漂移轨迹和归宿。计算结果表明当南港港池口门位置处发生溢油事故后,油膜均会漂出南港口门外,在风的作用下会对周边环境一定范围内产生一定影响。