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1.
Car ownership in China is expected to grow dramatically in the coming decades. If growing personal vehicle demand is met with conventional cars, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions will be substantial. One way to mitigate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from passenger travel is to meet growing demand for cars with alternative vehicles such as hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles (HEVs and BEVs). Our study examines the cost-effectiveness of transitioning from conventional cars to HEVs and BEVs, by calculating their marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon in the long-run. We find that transitioning from conventional to hybrid and battery electric light-duty, four-wheel vehicles can achieve carbon emissions reductions at a negative cost (i.e. at a net benefit) in China. In 2030, the average MAC is estimated to be about −$140/ton CO2 for HEVs and −$515/ton CO2-saved for BEVs, varying by key parameters. The total mitigation potential of each vehicle technology is estimated to be 1.38 million tons for HEVs and 0.75 million tons for BEVs. 相似文献
2.
China is the world biggest market of electric vehicles (EVs) in terms of production and sales. Existing studies on consumer preferences for EVs in China have generally focused on first-tier cities, while little attention has been paid to the lower tier cities. This exploratory study investigates consumer preferences for EVs in lower tier cities of China, by collecting stated preference (SP) data in two second-tier cities and three third-tier cities in the south Jiangsu region of China. The discrete choice modeling analysis shows that Chinese consumers in lower-tier cities are generally sensitive to monetary attributes, charging service and driving range of EVs. They also perceive Chinese vehicle brands to be disadvantaged compared with European brands. When comparing the differences in second-tier versus third-tier cities, we find that consumers in third-tier cities are more sensitive to purchase price, subsidy of purchase, and coverage of charging stations than their second-tier counterparts. This study also highlights the role of different psychological effects, such as symbols of car ownership, normative-face influence, and risk aversion, in shaping consumer preferences for EVs in lower-tier cities of China. Our results provide important implications for contextualizing government policies and marketing strategies in line with the different sizes and characteristics of the cities in China. 相似文献
3.
This paper examines the charging behavior of 7,979 plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) owners in California. The study investigates where people charge be it at home, at work, or at public location, and the level of charging they use including level 1, level 2, or DC fast charging. While plug-in behavior can differ among PEV owners based on their travel patterns, preferences, and access to infrastructure studies often make generalizations about charging behavior. In this study, we explore differences in charging behavior among different types of PEV owners based on their use of charging locations and levels, we then identify factors associated with PEV owner’s choice of charging location and charging level. We identified socio-demographic (gender and age), vehicle characteristics, commute behavior, and workplace charging availability as significant factors related to the choice of charging location. 相似文献
5.
This paper describes and seeks to understand the scale of the electric bicycle (electric two-wheeler) market in China, and to begin to explain its emergence with a view to outlining the prospects for learning from this case for applications in other countries around the world. Drawing on secondary data from Chinese government sources, electric bicycle industry websites, Chinese media sites and other sources, this exploratory paper positions the development of the electric bicycle market as occurring largely in the absence of positive policy intervention – in stark contrast to the nurturing afforded the electric car sector world-wide. The paper develops a multi-scalar perspective of transitions theory in an institutional setting, with examples drawn from Beijing and Fuzhou, to explain the processes of change outside of the traditional reference context of technology policy and management. It is concluded that transitions theory has a greater flexibility and adaptability as an explanatory framework than previously shown, but empirically the electric two-wheeler is a weakly-embedded alternative to mainstream automobility. 相似文献
6.
Research that addresses policy measures to increase the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has discussed government regulations such as California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) or penalties on petroleum-based fuels. Relatively few articles have addressed policy measures designed to increase the adoption of EVs by incentives to influence car buyers’ voluntary behavior. This article examines the effects of such policy measures. Two of these attributes are monetary measures, two others are traffic regulations, and the other three are related to investments in charging infrastructure. Consumer preferences were assessed using a choice-based conjoint analysis on an individual basis by applying the hierarchical Bayes method. In addition, the Kano method was used to elicit consumer satisfaction. This not only enabled the identification of preferences but also why preferences were based on either features that were “must-haves” or on attributes that were not expected but were highly attractive and, thus, led to high satisfaction. The results of surveys conducted in 20 countries in 5 continents showed that the installation of a charging network on freeways is an absolute necessity. This was completely independent from the average mileage driven per day. High cash grants were appreciated as attractive; however, combinations of lower grants with charging facilities resulted in similar preference shares in market simulations for each country. The results may serve as initial guidance for policymakers and practitioners in improving their incentive programs for electric mobility. 相似文献
7.
Fuelled by a rapidly rising human global population, an increasing demand for freedom to travel and the affordability made possible by modern manufacturing there has been an exponential rise in the number of automobiles – in the year 2013 there were in excess of a billion automobiles in use! Three factors that are of serious concern are the consequential energetic, environmental and economic impacts. One solution that is being seen by a number of national governments is the advent (or rather re-introduction) of electric vehicles (EVs). However, one of the key factors that will need to be explored will be the source of the required electricity for the EVs that will define the level of their sustainability.In this article an experimental evaluation of an electric vehicle has been undertaken. The Renault Zoe e-car has been used for this task with the ‘car chasing’ technique employed to measure the driving cycle. The speed and energy use were recorded for the vehicle that was driven along the principal arteries of the City of Edinburgh, Scotland. In a separate activity vehicle driving tests were also undertaken in one town in Slovenia (Celje). In both places urban and suburban routes were covered for different times of the day. Results are presented to quantify the energetic, environmental and economic performance indices for the driven vehicle. A discussion is also provided on the potential for reduction of carbon emissions from the transport sector by provision of environmentally-friendly means of generating electricity. 相似文献
8.
Electric travelling appears to dominate the transport sector in the near future due to the needed transition from internal combustion vehicles (ICV) towards Electric Vehicles (EV) to tackle urban pollution. Given this trend, investigation of the EV drivers’ travel behaviour is of great importance to stakeholders including planners and policymakers, for example in order to locate charging stations. This research explores the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) drivers route choice and charging preferences through a Stated Preference (SP) survey. Collecting data from 505 EV drivers in the Netherlands, we report the results of estimating a Mixed Logit (ML) model for those choices. Respondents were requested to choose a route among six alternatives: freeways, arterial ways, and local streets with and without fast charging. Our findings suggest that the classic route attributes (travel time and travel cost), vehicle-related variables (state-of-charge at the origin and destination) and charging characteristics (availability of a slow charging point at the destination, fast charging duration, waiting time in the queue of a fast-charging station) can influence the BEV drivers route choice and charging behaviour significantly. When the state-of-charge (SOC) at the origin is high and a slow charger at the destination is available, routes without fast charging are likely to be preferred. Moreover, local streets (associated with slow speeds and less energy consumption) could be preferred if the SOC at the destination is expected to be low while arterial ways might be selected when a driver must recharge his/her car during the trip via fast charging. 相似文献
9.
We present a sensitivity analysis for a mechanical model, which is used to estimate the energy demand of battery electric vehicles. This model is frequently used in literature, but its parameters are often chosen incautiously, which can lead to inaccurate energy demand estimates. We provide a novel prioritization of parameters and quantify their impact on the accuracy of the energy demand estimation, to enable better decision making during the model parameter selection phase. We furthermore determine a subset of parameters, which has to be defined, in order to achieve a desired estimation accuracy. The analysis is based on recorded GPS tracks of a battery electric vehicle under various driving conditions, but results are equally applicable for other BEVs. Results show that the uncertainty of vehicle efficiency and rolling friction coefficient have the highest impact on accuracy. The uncertainty of power demand for heating and cooling the vehicle also strongly affects the estimation accuracy, but only at low speeds. We also analyze the energy shares related to each model component including acceleration, air drag, rolling and grade resistance and auxiliary energy demand. Our work shows that, while some components make up a large share of the overall energy demand, the uncertainty of parameters related to these components does not affect the accuracy of energy demand estimation significantly. This work thus provides guidance for implementing and calibrating an energy demand estimation based on a longitudinal dynamics model. 相似文献
10.
A reliable estimate of the potential for electrification of personal automobiles in a given region is dependent on detailed understanding of vehicle usage in that region. While broad measures of driving behavior, such as annual miles traveled or the ensemble distribution of daily travel distances are widely available, they cannot be predictors of the range needs or fuel-saving potential that influence an individual purchase decision. Studies that record details of individual vehicle usage over a sufficient time period are available for only a few regions in the US. In this paper we compare statistical characterization of four such studies (three in the US, one in Germany) and find remarkable similarities between them, and that they can be described quite accurately by properly chosen set of distributions. This commonality gives high confidence that ensemble data can be used to predict the spectrum of usage and acceptance of alternative vehicles in general. This generalized representation of vehicle usage may also be a powerful tool in estimating real-world fuel consumption and emissions. 相似文献
11.
The suitability of an electric vehicle of a given range to serve in place of a given conventional vehicle is not limited by the daily travel over distances within that that range, but rather by the occasional inconvenience of finding alternative transport for longer trips. While the frequency of this inconvenience can be computed from usage data, the willingness of individual users to accept that replacement depends on details of available transportation alternatives and their willingness to use them. The latter can be difficult to assess. Fortunately, 65% of US households have access to the most convenient alternative possible: a second car. In this paper we describe an analysis of prospective EV acceptance and travel electrification in two-car households in the Puget Sound region. We find that EVs with 60 miles of useful range could be acceptable (i.e. incur inconvenience no more than three days each year) to nearly 90% of two-car households and electrify nearly 55% of travel in those households (32% of all travel). This compares to 120 miles range required to achieve the same fraction of electrified travel via one-for-one replacement of individual vehicles. Even though only one third of personal vehicles in the US may be replaced in this paradigm, the ‘EV as a second-car’ concept is attractive in that a significant fraction of travel can be electrified by vehicles with modest electric range and virtually no dependence on public charging infrastructure. 相似文献
12.
In this paper, we study the strategies of the most relevant stakeholders with regard to the development and commercialization of electric vehicles (EVs) and their recharging infrastructure. Building on the perspective of socio-technical transitions, we relate the strategies of stakeholders to their current and future interests, as well as to their expectations with regard to EVs. Our analysis is based on a series of 38 semi-structured interviews with representatives of a variety of stakeholders in the Netherlands.EVs pose both opportunities and threats to various stakeholders. They therefore participate in the development of the emerging EV system, primarily in order to learn about the potential positive and negative impacts of these systems on their interests and, ultimately, to be able to grasp the opportunities and mitigate the threats. In other words, the expectations, interests, and resulting strategies of stakeholders relate to and depend upon the specific configuration of the emerging socio-technical system for electric mobility. We identify six potential conflicts of interest: the division of tasks within a public recharging infrastructure; the allocation of charging spots; the ways in which charging behavior can be influenced; the role of fast-charging, technical standards for charging equipment; and supportive policies for full-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.In general, the stakeholders do not seem overly concerned about either short-term returns on investments or long-term negative impacts. In this regard, the early phase of the transition can be understood as a relatively carefree phase. In order to continue the development of the emerging EV system and to keep it on the right track, however, for the foreseeable future, supportive policies will be necessary in order to provide a stable and reliable basis for further market expansion. 相似文献
13.
In this paper we discuss the effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility of policy measures that cities may adopt to stimulate the uptake and use of electric vehicles. Our analysis is based on an expert workshop in which municipal policy-makers used a group decision room system to exchange their experiences with electric vehicle related policies. We distinguish six categories of measures: supporting citizens and businesses, supporting charging-infrastructure build up, regulatory measures, raising awareness, government as lead user, and governing the transition with other levels of government. We find two feasible policy mixes of effective and efficient measures, one for cities that strive to be among the global frontrunners and one of no-regret policies that any city should adopt, if it wants to stimulate electric mobility. 相似文献
14.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector but their limited electric driving range diminishes their utility to users. The effect of the limited driving range can be reduced in multi-car households where users could choose between a BEV and a conventional car for long-distance travel. However, to what extent the driving patterns of different cars in a multi-car household’s suit the characteristics of a BEV needs further analysis. In this paper we analyse the probability of daily driving above a fixed threshold for conventional cars in current Swedish and German car driving data. We find second cars in multi-car households to require less adaptation and to be better suited for BEV adoption compared to first cars in multi-car households as well as to cars in single-car households. Specifically, the share of second cars that could fulfil all their driving is 20 percentage points higher compared to first cars and cars from single-car households. This result is stable against variation of driving range and of the tolerated number of days requiring adaptation. Furthermore, the range needed to cover all driving needs for about 70% of the vehicles is only 220 km for second cars compared to 390 km for the average car. We can further confirm that second cars have higher market viability from a total cost of ownership perspective. Here, the second cars achieve a 10 percentage points higher market share compared to first cars, and to cars in single-car households for Swedish economic conditions, while for Germany the corresponding figure is 2 percentage points. Our results are important for understanding the market viability of current and near-future BEVs. 相似文献
15.
The aim of the German Government is the licensing of one million electric vehicles (EV) in Germany until 2020. However, the number of battery electric vehicles (EVs) today still is just above 25,000. There are several reasons for deciding against an EV, but especially low battery ranges as well as too long perceived charging duration inhibit the usage of an EV. To eliminate the negative influence of these two reasons on the decision to purchase an EV, a novel charging technology is established. The rapid-charging technology enables the user to recharge the battery to 80% of its state of charge (SOC) within 20–30 min. For the examination of the technology’s impact from (potential) user’s perspective, users and nonusers of battery electric vehicles were questioned about the perceived additional value of public rapid-charging infrastructure by taking into account different trip purposes and running comparisons to regular charging options. The results show an increased perceived value especially for trips with leisure purpose, considering their share of all trip purposes in Germany, according to the MiD 2008. In order to increase the number of licensed EVs in Germany, the study’s results also suggest further dissemination of information on rapid charging which might influence the perceived usefulness of the technology and consequentially the perceived usefulness of an EV. 相似文献
16.
Electric vehicles are often said to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the results of current comparisons with conventional vehicles are not always in favor of electric vehicles. We outline that this is not only due to the different assumptions in the time of charging and the country-specific electricity generation mix, but also due to the applied assessment method. We, therefore, discuss four assessment methods (average annual electricity mix, average time-dependent electricity mix, marginal electricity mix, and balancing zero emissions) and analyze the corresponding CO2 emissions for Germany in 2030 using an optimizing energy system model (PERSEUS-NET-TS). Furthermore, we distinguish between an uncontrolled (i.e. direct) charging and an optimized controlled charging strategy. For Germany, the different assessment methods lead to substantial discrepancies in CO2 emissions for 2030 ranging from no emissions to about 0.55 kg/kWhel (110 g/km). These emissions partly exceed the emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles. Furthermore, depending on the underlying power plant portfolio and the controlling objective, controlled charging might help to reduce CO2 emissions and relieve the electricity grid. We therefore recommend to support controlled charging, to develop consistent methodologies to address key factors affecting CO2 emissions by electric vehicles, and to implement efficient policy instruments which guarantee emission free mobility with electric vehicles agreed upon by researchers and policy makers. 相似文献
17.
Take-up rates of electric vehicles (EV) are increasing and are predicted to accelerate rapidly. Public EV charging networks will be required to support future EV fleets. If unplanned, public charging networks are highly likely to be suboptimal. Planners need to understand and plan for future EV charging infrastructure requirements, particularly public DC fast charging networks, as both the upfront investment costs and the consequences of misallocation are high. However, the task of determining the optimal locations and allocations (types and numbers) of public EV charging infrastructure is complicated as it requires knowledge of many variables. These include EV driver behaviors, driving patterns, predicting evolutionary changes in EV and EV charging technologies, future EV take-up rates, and what investment may or may not occur in the absence of government funding support. 相似文献
18.
This paper evaluates the impacts on energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the introduction of electric vehicles into a smart grid, as a case study. The AVL Cruise software was used to simulate two vehicles, one electric and the other engine-powered, both operating under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), in order to calculate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, fuel consumption and energy efficiency. Available carbon dioxide data from electric power generation in Brazil were used for comparison with the simulated results. In addition, scenarios of gradual introduction of electric vehicles in a taxi fleet operating with a smart grid system in Sete Lagoas city, MG, Brazil, were made to evaluate their impacts. The results demonstrate that CO2 emissions from the electric vehicle fleet can be from 10 to 26 times lower than that of the engine-powered vehicle fleet. In addition, the scenarios indicate that even with high factors of CO2 emissions from energy generation, significant reductions of annual emissions are obtained with the introduction of electric vehicles in the fleet. 相似文献
19.
As electric vehicles (EVs) become more readily available, sales will depend on consumers’ interest and understanding. A survey of consumer attitudes on electric cars was conducted in Manitoba from late 2011 to early 2012. It utilizes two price assessment methods. The van Westendorp price sensitivity method (PSM) shows the acceptable price range for EVs to be $22,000–27,500. This range closely matches average price range for sales of conventional cars during the same period. The willingness-to-pay method reveals consumers are unwilling to pay large premiums for EVs, even when given information on future fuel savings. A consumer group with experience or exposure to EVs is somewhat different. Nearly 25% of these people are willing to pay a premium of up to $10,000. Different interpretations can be drawn from these responses, calling for further research. An apparent policy opportunity involves consumer education to enhance knowledge and facilitate EV purchase decisions. Survey results also support the hypothesis that EV rollout has focused too much on technology, and not enough on consumers. 相似文献
20.
Real-time energy trading services for privately owned non-commercial electric vehicles are characterized by an e-vehicle provider, by a provider of energy trading skills and technology, and by the fact that the latter manages (dis-)charging of the e-vehicle of the former with real-time energy prices. We conduct a simulation study to present a comprehensive assessment of the financial value of such services. Such an assessment is required in order to provide policymakers with guidance on if and how real-time trading services can serve as a tool to incentivize e-vehicle ownership. We propose a fully reproducible simulation model of the value creation process of real-time trading services, and use the model to assess services with a range of e-vehicle provider characteristics as well as with a range of technology setups. Our empirical results show that all considered real-time trading services are able to create significant energy cost savings, and that overall cost savings strongly depend on technology characteristics, surcharge rate, as well as on the e-vehicle provider's commute, household size, and office hours. We show that services including solar energy generation have the largest economic potential but do not necessarily maximize renewable energy deployment with residential households. We conclude with recommendations for policymakers on how to tap the full economic potential of real-time trading services for stimulating the adoption of e-vehicles. 相似文献