External costs of electric vehicles

Electric vehicles (EV) are often considered a promising technology to decrease external costs of road transport. Therefore, main external cost components are estimated for EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV). These include costs of accidents, air pollution, climate change, noise, and congestion. All components are estimated over the product lifetime and, where appropriate, differentiated according to fuel type, vehicle size as well as emission location and time. The advantage of this differentiation is, however, compensated by high uncertainties of most cost estimates. Overall, the external costs of EV and ICEV do not differ significantly. Only for climate change, local air pollutants in congested inner-cities, and noise some advantageous effects can be observed for EV. The advantages depend strongly on the national electricity power plant portfolio and potentially also on the charging strategy. Controlled charging might allow for higher emission reductions than uncontrolled charging of EV.     

Changes in perceived travel cost and time for the work trip during a period of increasing gasoline costs

This study was designed to examine the relationship between actual and perceived values of cost and time for the work trip and to examine how perceptions have changed over a period of dramatically increased travel costs. Variations in the relationship between perceived and actual values were examined as a function of situational and attitudinal variables. Two telephone surveys were conducted one year apart (Fall 1978 and Fall 1979). On the next working day following a survey, a research assistant recreated the respondent's work trip, recorded time values and used distance measures, car type information and parking costs to compute travel cost. The first survey revealed that most auto users were unable to articulate dollars-and-cents driving costs for the work trip, but auto users in the second survey were able to provide fairly accurate cost estimates. Dramatic changes in fuel prices between surveys is probably the main reason for the change in driving cost awareness. Auto users were also asked to rate relative costs of driving a car compared to using the bus for the work trip. These ratings showed that auto users tended to underestimate driving costs relative to bus costs, but this tendency decreased from the first to the second time period. Commuters in all modal groups at both time periods tended to overestimate travel times. Perception of travel time varied as a function of mode, perceived comfort (for car users), and perceived convenience and number of transfers (for bus users).To whom correspondence should be addressed.     

Estimating the value of time: An additional misspecification error

This note is an extension of arguments made in an earlier article by J. Guttman in this journal. It points out a specification error in estimating the value of time when parking costs are added to modal running costs, to create a single cost variable. After developing arguments for separating modal costs from parking costs, estimates for Toronto are provided. These estimates demonstrate the magnitude of this type of aggregation bias.The author is indebted to Adolf Buse, Don Dewees and Richard Westin for helpful comments.     

Costs of air pollutants from shipping: a meta-regression analysis

ABSTRACT

This study estimated the external cost of air pollution from shipping by means of a meta-regression analysis, which has not been made before. Three pollutants, which were included in most of the primary studies, were considered: nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur dioxides (SO₂) and particulate matters with a diameter of max 2.5 micrometres (PM_2.5). All primary studies included damages of health and a majority added impacts on agriculture and estimated the cost of air pollutants by transferring cost estimates from studies on costs of air emissions from transports in Europe. Different regression models and estimators were used and robust results were found of statistically significant emission elasticities of below one, i.e. total external costs increase by less than 1% when emissions increase by 1%. There was a small variation between the pollutants, with the highest elasticity for PM_2.5 and lowest for NO_x. Calculations of the marginal external cost of the pollutants showed the same pattern, with this cost being approximately six times higher for PM_2.5 than for the other pollutants. Common to all pollutants was that the marginal external cost decreases when emission increases. Another robust result was a significant increase in the cost of studies published in journals compared with other publication outlets. These findings point out some caution when transferring constant external unit cost of air pollutant from shipping, which is much applied in the literature, and the cost functions estimated in this study could thus provide a complementary transfer mechanism.     

Alternative methods for estimating full marginal costs of highway transportation

This paper presents various methods of estimating the full marginal cost (FMC) of highway passenger transportation. First, the computation of FMC is performed using the marginal cost functions, most of which were developed by Ozbay et al. [Ozbay, K., Bartin, B., Berechman, J., 2001. Estimation and evaluation of full marginal costs of highway transportation in New Jersey. Journal of Transportation and Statistics 4 (1)]. FMC is defined and calculated as “total cost per trip” as explained in this paper. However, in multiple origin-destination and multiple route highway networks, the practical application of the network-wide FMC concept is complicated. These issues are addressed in detail in this paper. Therefore, in the second method, a multiple route based FMC approach is proposed for a given origin-destination pair in the network. It is observed that the marginal values of different paths vary as much as 28%. Third, a comparison of FMC estimation results of two distinct measurement tools is presented. The FMC estimation is performed between a selected OD pair using the static transportation planning software output (TransCAD). The same analysis is repeated using the stochastic traffic simulation software output (PARAMICS). The differences in FMC values estimated by static transportation planning software and microscopic traffic simulation software are discussed.     

The marginal external costs of urban transport

A necessary input for the analysis of efficient transport policies is the marginal external cost of each transport mode. This paper studies the marginal external costs of urban transportation. These include the marginal external cost of congestion, accidents, air pollution and noise. The costs are computed for cars, buses, trams, metro and trucks. The methodology is described and applied to the urban area of Brussels for the year 2005.     

External costs from vessel emissions at port: a review of the methodological and empirical state of the art†

The accurate calculation of external costs from vessel emissions and shipping (as it happens with transport) strongly depends on parameters such as location, the time of the day and vessel operative. Thus, the use of a full bottom-up approach and granular traffic details is suggested. The latter may represent a substantial improvement in the resolution of shipping activity, energy demand, emissions and cost data being the latter essential for better regulations. The revised work identifies the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) as the best-practice bottom-up methodology for calculating site-specific external costs derived from shipping air emissions. It has been widely adopted, among others, over major European studies (CAFE, BeTa, NEEDS and HEATCO). Also, it shows that due to costly and complex requirements of creating a shipping and harbour-specific bottom-up approach, external cost calculation based on tonne per euro factors obtained from European Studies (top-down approach) has been widely accepted. Moreover, methodological improvements and the possible achievement of refined estimations (IPA) dedicated to ports and shipping are strongly suggested, as these may improve information quality used for environmental policy and measures that contribute to the internalisation of externality costs.     

Analysis of cost estimation disclosure in environmental impact statements for surface transportation projects

Reliability in cost estimates in publicly funded projects is more important today than ever with increased governmental funding to infrastructure projects and associated accountability requirements, but surface transportation projects, large and small, in the United States have a legacy of cost overruns. The problems with these overruns start with the cost estimation process before projects begin. Studies have shown that early cost estimations reflect best-case scenarios rather than realistic expectations, and have attributed technical, economic, psychological, and political reasons for underestimation. The primary objectives of this research were to determine how costs have been presented and updated in environmental impact statements, to identify endemic technical problems with cost estimation during the environmental review of surface transportation projects, and to develop recommendations for improving cost estimation and disclosure. Cost estimation methods were analyzed from the documents of 100 projects, including draft environmental impact statements, final environmental impact statements, and records of decision. The study concluded that the lack of guidance on how to include cost estimation in environmental review revealed itself in the level of detail and attention given to estimating costs. Agencies omitted or included various aspects of cost estimation randomly. Professional organizations should fill the gap of the need for specific guidance to cost estimation for environmental review so it can evolve as a state of the practice.     

Parameter estimation for the peak traffic model

In a previous article a model was developed for predicting the temporal distribution of peak traffic demand, and the model is sensitive to the determining cost parameters whose values were not known. These costs are the cost to late and early arrivals at work and the cost to delays in the system while travelling. In this paper, using the method of least squares, representative values for these cost parameters are estimated for both the Southbound and Northbound traffic using the Sydney Harbour Bridge during the morning peak period. The resulting estimates show that a traveller tends to attach much higher cost to delays than to earliness or lateness to work; although the relative cost he attaches to lateness is higher than he attaches to earliness.     

An actuary method for the estimation and comparison of urban bus transit cost of services

This paper presents a new cost allocation method developed for estimating the fully-allocated costs of the excess peak hour bus transit service provided by two public transit systems. The estimates were produced for the explicit purpose of carrying out a realistic comparison of these costs and the costs of the potential provision of the same service by private operators. The method utilizes the same service data for the analysis. The pragmatic estimation of the fully allocated costs of service by the public and private sectors enables a more accurate estimation of potential cost savings. Sensitivity analysis was also performed using the same costing procedure to determine the range of cost savings that are feasible in a competitive contract arrangement of private sector providers. The new method separates costs of the direct provision of service from other indirect costs and thus facilitates the identification of each cost item and its significance in comparative cost estimates.     

Comparison of “Advanced” biofuel cost estimates: Trends during rollout of low carbon fuel policies

Costs of producing “advanced” biofuels (those with the lowest GHG and land use impacts) have not decreased in recent years as envisioned by analysts. Despite aggressive policy incentives, no transition to a lower cost mature industry has occurred. Information about the cost dynamics and slow industry emergence is of major interest to policymakers and others seeking to understand the likely success – and cost – of incentive programs. This paper reviews literature on production cost at the plantgate – without considering taxes or delivery costs – for selected biofuel technology pathways using a levelized cost of fuel approach, applying common financing assumptions for capital amortization and converting all values to year 2016 dollars, and examines results in the current low carbon fuel policy context. The average production cost estimate for cellulosic ethanol was $4 per gallon-gasoline equivalent (gge). For drop-in fuels, the pyrolysis-biocrude-hydro treatment pathway had the lowest average production cost estimate at about $3.25/gge. Biomass to liquid (BTL) production cost estimates averaged $3.80/gge, while hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) – the sole fuel studied gaining commercial traction – averaged about $3.70/gge. Estimate ranges did not allow any definitive rank ordering of the fuels by production cost. Production cost estimates are higher in later than in earlier publications for non-HEFA fuels due primarily to higher costs for feedstock and capital expenditure components. This may reflect learning from early but largely unsuccessful commercialization efforts that yielded more realistic (and higher cost) information and detail on feedstock provision and conversion processes.     

Substitution of bus for car travel in urban Britain: an economic evaluation of bus and car exhaust emission and other costs

Car exhaust emissions cause serious air pollution problems in many regions and, at a global level, contribute to climate change. Car use is also an important factor in other problems including traffic congestion, road accidents, noise pollution, community severance, and loss of countryside from road building. Forecasts of further increases in car ownership and use have prompted calls for policy-makers to encourage car users to switch to other forms of transport, particularly the bus. The effects of substituting bus for car travel in urban areas are simulated by specifying a spreadsheet model incorporating two types of car (petrol and diesel engine) and three types of bus (mini-, midi- and large bus). Six types of exhaust emission are considered for each vehicle type for the years 1992, 1995 and 1999: carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, (small) particulate matter and carbon dioxide. The paper provides a synthesis of monetary estimates of these exhaust emission and other costs. The other costs considered are traffic congestion, fuel consumption, noise pollution, road accidents and road damage. The exhaust emission monetary cost estimates, mainly from the United States and the United Kingdom, are discussed within the context of a sensitivity analysis which allows for changes in parameters such as load factors, emission factors and the individual exhaust emission cost estimates. The simulation results show that substitution of bus for car travel generally decreases the overall costs, particularly the costs of congestion, but increases exhaust emission costs if bus load factors are insufficiently high. In order to reduce exhaust emission costs from car to bus transfer at given load factors, the most effective policy option is to encourage the reduction of particulate emissions from bus engines. In terms of the overall costs, increasing bus load factors by relatively modest amounts can lead to substantial reductions in these overall costs. These results should be regarded as illustrative rather than definitive, given the uncertainties in a number of parameter estimates and the need for further research in areas not covered by the paper.     

An analysis of the retail and lifecycle cost of battery-powered electric vehicles

Regulators, policy analysts, automobile manufacturers, environmental groups, and others are debating the merits of policies regarding the development and use of battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs). At the crux of this debate is lifecycle cost: the annualized initial vehicle cost, plus annual operating and maintenance costs, plus battery replacement costs. To address this issue of cost, we have developed a detailed model of the performance, energy use, manufacturing cost, retail cost, and lifecycle cost of electric vehicles and comparable gasoline internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This effort is an improvement over most previous studies of electric vehicle costs because instead of assuming important parameter values for such variables as vehicle efficiency and battery cost, we model these values in detail. We find that in order for electric vehicles to be cost-competitive with gasoline ICEVs, batteries must have a lower manufacturing cost, and a longer life, than the best lithium-ion and nickel–metal hydride batteries we modeled. We believe that it is most important to reduce the battery manufacturing cost to $100/kWh or less, attain a cycle life of 1200 or more and a calendar life of 12 years or more, and aim for a specific energy of around 100 Wh/kg.     

Assessing the social costs of urban transport infrastructure options in low and middle income countries

ABSTRACT

This paper develops cost models for urban transport infrastructure options in situations where motorcycles and various forms of taxis are important modes of transport. The total social costs (TSCs) of conventional bus, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Monorail, Metro (Elevated Rail), car, motorcycle, Taxi and Uber are calculated for an urban corridor covering operator, user and external costs. Based on the parameters for a 7?km corridor in Hanoi, Vietnam, the results show the lowest average social cost (ASC) transport modes for different ranges of demand. Motorcycle might be the best option at low demand levels while conventional bus has advantages with low-medium demand. At medium demand levels, bus-based technologies and Monorail are competitive options while Metro, with a higher person capacity, is the best alternative at the highest demand levels. Compared to other modes, the ASCs of car and Taxi/Uber are greater because of high capital cost (related to vehicles) per passenger and low occupancy. Transport planners and decision makers in low and middle income countries (LMICs) can draw on the findings of this study. However, various limitations are identified and additional research is suggested.     

A meta-analysis of the impact of rail projects on land and property values

The literature on land and property values demonstrates a great deal of variability in the estimated change in values arising from rail investments. This paper conducts a meta-analysis on empirical estimates from 23 studies (102 observations) that analysed the impact of rail on land/property value changes. Variation in the estimated impacts is calculated and discussed in relation to key dimensions of study-design characteristics. The results show that a number of factors produce significant variations in the estimates. These include the type of land use, the type of rail service, the rail system life cycle maturity, the distance to stations, the geographical location, accessibility to roads, methodological characteristics, as well as whether the impacted area is land or property. On the other hand, we observe that changes in purchase price and rent values due to rail projects are statistically similar to each other, that there is no evidence of change in values over time nor due to the location of land/property within the city, and that including property characteristics and neighbourhood type in the estimation model do not change values significantly. Publication bias tests are also performed and show that although researchers tend to report both positive and negative results, they tend to be biased towards statistically significant estimates.     

The trouble with minimum parking requirements

Urban planners typically set the minimum parking requirements for every land use to satisfy the peak demand for free parking. As a result, parking is free for 99% of automobile trips in the United States. Minimum parking requirements increase the supply and reduce the price – but not the cost – of parking. They bundle the cost of parking spaces into the cost of development, and thereby increase the prices of all the goods and services sold at the sites that offer free parking. Cars have many external costs, but the external cost of parking in cities may be greater than all the other external costs combined. To prevent spillover, cities could price on-street parking rather than require off-street parking. Compared with minimum parking requirements, market prices can allocate parking spaces fairly and efficiently.     

A unified approach for allocation of highway pavement costs

There is a need to allocate various components of highway pavement costs in a unified and consistent manner in highway cost allocation analysis. Previous cost allocation studies have not placed sufficient emphasis on this aspect. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to allocate highway pavement costs. In contrast to the elaborate disaggregate distress function approach by the 1982 Federal Cost Allocation Study, the approach presented is based upon the aggregate performance of a pavement. The methodology was developed and used in the 1983–1984 Indiana Highway Cost Allocation Study to allocate pavement construction, maintenance and rehabilitation costs.     

Evaluation of urban accessibility indicators based on internal and external environmental costs

This paper estimates urban accessibility considering types of transport and destinations, taking into account the internal travel time costs, and the ensuing external environmental impacts. Based on online and local surveys, an accessibility function is developed to allow for the construction of an accessibility curve for each transport mode that decreases with distance to represent decaying accessibility. An external environmental impact is associated with the accessibility indicators, taking into account the influence of the cold-start emissions that are particularly relevant for short-distance trips. The methodology is applied to neighborhoods in Lisbon, Portugal, with significant differences in their urban planning, mobility patterns, concentration of services and availability of public transportation.     

External costs of the Belgian interurban freight traffic: a network analysis of their internalisation

The strong expansion of freight road transports throughout Europe is an important source of congestion and pollution, as well as a cause of many accidents. To solve this problem will require the conjunction of many different remedies. One element of solution would be the promotion and substitution of transportation modes with less negative effects. This paper is focused on this solution. It presents some results obtained from a detailed GIS modelling of the Belgian multimodal freight transport network inserted within the overall trans-European network. It outlines the results of a simulation of the flows over the Belgian network in 1995 which allows to estimate some of the costs of several external effects of freight transports: the costs of pollution, congestion, accidents, noise and road damages. This paper provides also the simulated impacts on modal choice of a marginal external cost internalisation, and an estimation of the corresponding external cost savings.