The market for second-hand ships: Further results on efficiency using cointegration analysis

This paper examines the dynamic behaviour of second-hand prices of tankers and dry-cargo vessels over various time periods, with a view to determining whether or not the markets for such assets are efficient. It extends and re-analyses the results of an earlier study by Hale and Vanags, published in this journal in 1992. Using a more modern method of testing for cointegration, it is shown that both the tanker and dry cargo markets appear to be cointegrated, a fact which would suggest that these markets are inefficient. It is suggested that the existence of cointegration does not necessarily imply market inefficiency, if the factors that create the common trends are themselves stochastic in nature. With this in mind, it is argued that the evidence put forward in this paper is still consistent with market efficiency in the long run.     

Investor herding behaviour in globally listed shipping stocks

ABSTRACT

This study undertakes one of the first empirical attempts to investigate and contribute a set of innovative findings to investor herding behavior and herding spillover effects in globally listed shipping company stock returns. Distinguishing between OECD and Non-OECD markets, herding behavior is tested on a diversified set of shipping companies traded in international equity markets, over different business cycle phases, financial crises, and external shocks. A set of dynamic models, well established in the relevant behavioral finance literature, is implemented. Empirical evidence indicates investor herding behavior in shipping stock returns and herding spillover effects between different shipping sectors, albeit not robust in all cases. These challenging findings can have a material impact on efficient investment and financing decisions of shipping market players.     

2008年市场预期与展望

文章从修理与改装市场、船舶建造市场、海洋工程建造市场方面分析论述了在全球经济的大环境下，国内修船市场、船舶与海洋工程建造市场面对的机遇与挑战。     

Combination hedging strategies for crude oil and dry bulk freight rates on the impacts of dynamic cross-market interaction

The fluctuation of freight rates revenue and the fierce volatility of oil cost are two of the most key risk exposures in the shipping industry. However, neglecting the dynamic interrelationship between the cost and the revenue markets leads to the overestimation or underestimation of hedging ratios, which makes the present single hedge strategy less efficient. This paper proposes an optimal combination hedging model for a shipowner trading the derivatives of crude oil and dry bulk freight rates simultaneously with the cross-market economic linkages. We investigate the impacts of spillover transmission, structural breaks, and dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) on the optimal combination hedging trading. It is found that the significant volatility transmission between oil future and dry bulk forward freight agreements suggests a high dependence of the Capesize sector on the oil fluctuations, which means that the dynamic cross-market interactions have significant impacts on the aggregate risk exposures. Furthermore, the DCCs incorporating structural breaks significantly improve the performance of the combination hedge, which is superior to the two separate hedging strategies. Our study offers new insights into how the freight rates and oil markets relate to a combination hedging, which can be used to promote the risk management in the market.     

Ports,external costs,and Northern Italian transport network design: effects for the planned transformation

Modern ports need to be inserted in an efficient network in order to exploit all their potential, positively affecting both the efficiency of the local markets and the external costs of the served industries. Moreover, the role of the ports within the whole supply chain is affected by the location and the organization of intermediate facilities—such as logistics parks or inland ports—that heavily influence both the effectiveness of the logistics corridors and the externalities generated by the transport industry. New and adequate infrastructures can then reduce congestions, pollution, and accidents smoothing the whole logistics chains. The proposed study aims at discussing the effects in terms of rail share of the different planned interventions that are aimed at increasing the rail capacity of the network under investigation. In order to achieve this goal, a network optimization model has been solved by the optimizer solver of a spreadsheet. Outcomes can be used in order to improve current transport policies that might foster a more efficient and less impacting hinterland transport solution.     

Airline network competition: Full-service airlines, low-cost airlines and long-haul markets

The paper discusses airline network competition. Low-cost airlines and conventional airlines have distinctly different strategies and network types. This determines their ability to compete with other airlines in specific markets. The paper discusses the lack of competition between conventional airlines in local markets, and sees why low-cost airlines are the primary source of competition in such markets. Conventional airlines are relatively strong on long-haul markets, using their networks to keep costs per seat relatively low. Charter airlines show that a long-haul low-cost strategy is feasible For scheduled low-cost airlines, this may be more difficult, but this does not automatically mean that low-cost airlines cannot enter thick long-haul markets.     

The case for using cost benefit analysis to evaluate the supply of public goods in the maritime industry

In an era in which economists have rediscovered their belief in the economic efficiency of free markets and espoused privatization as a policy means of achieving these benefits, perhaps it is advisable to consider some of the difficulties markets have in supplying public and merit goods. In the following article, the case of the Hydrographic Service safety services and the difficulties of using traditional accounting methods to assess the adequacy of that provisions. It is also argued that the techniques of cost benefit analysis should be used to assess the adequacy of the supply of public goods and a framework is suggested for the evaluative structure.     

Spillover effects and dynamic correlations between spot and forward tanker freight markets

Monitoring and analysing information transmission across different shipping markets is an important tool for participants to predict shipping freight rates, design portfolio investments and manage freight rate risks. The purpose of this article is to investigate spillover effects and dynamic correlations between shipping spot and derivatives markets (tanker forward freight agreement, FFA) under the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity framework. Empirical results show that spillovers in returns are unilateral from one-month FFA to spot markets, while they are bilateral between one-month and two-month FFA markets. However, insignificant mean spillovers between spot and two-month FFA markets are found. Volatility spillover effects among one-month FFA, two-month FFA and spot freight markets are bilateral. By analysing the correlation between different markets, highly persistent and significantly volatile correlations are found. Moreover, time-varying correlations between one-month and two-month FFA markets are much higher than those of between spot and each FFA market. Results from this article will be helpful to improve participants’ predictions of return, volatility and correlation, which are significant for determining hedge strategies. In addition, the management of freight rate risk and portfolio investment can also benefit from the empirical results obtained in this article.     

Market structures in coastal shipping: what to expect in Canada following the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement with the European Union?

After several years of negotiation between Canada and the European Union, the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) was ratified in early 2017. The regime set out by the Canadian Coasting Trade Act that reserves shipments of cargo between Canadian ports to Canadian vessels remains mostly untouched under CETA. Minor, yet potentially significant, changes to the regime are introduced by the trade agreement. Provisions are made to liberalize the repositioning of empty containers within Canada. The liberalization of public markets now allows European firms to compete in the Canadian dredging market. Finally, EU vessels can undertake some transshipment activity in Canada but this is limited to international cargo on the specific Montreal-Halifax route. The paper attempts to highlight some possible CETA’s consequences for domestic Canadian shipping markets. It uses industrial economics analytical tools drawn from a Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) paradigm. From a literature review, it reconstructs different cases of deregulation that occurred internationally. The observed transformations are then characterized in terms of the SCP model. The paper identifies some common impacts which occurred in different transportation industries after a deregulation process. Using these findings, it concludes by discussing potential impacts for domestic shipping markets in Canada.     

Workshop 3B: Governance,ownership and competition issues in deregulated (free market) public transport: Lessons that can be learnt from developed and developing economies

The past emphasis in this conference series has been on the best ways to deregulate regulated public transport markets. This workshop reverses this process by examining the best ways to regulate deregulated public transport markets. A hierarchy of regulatory needs is identified and three hybrid models examined, based loosely on experience from Great Britain, New Zealand and Sweden. It is argued that deregulated public transport markets are a global phenomenon but regulatory measures should reflect local requirements. The resultant process of glocalisation might result in regulatory measures that focus on the rules of law and their enforcement in emerging public transport markets (such as urban transport in Sub Saharan Africa and for the soon to be competitive inter urban market in Germany) but that focus on guidance for network integration and incentivisation for welfare maximisation in more mature public transport markets (as in Great Britain, New Zealand and Sweden).     

RTG"油改电"技术方案探讨

介绍了两种具有代表性的RTG"油改电"的技术方案,从电压等级、电力上机方式等方面进行分析比较,说明各方案的特点和适用范围.     

增加石化码头工艺灵活性适应多种商机的设计理念

分析了南方市场石化码头建设和营运的特点,提出了该类码头的工艺设计,应当顺应市场需求的设计理念和若干具体措施.     

Combined ships: an empirical investigation about versatility

Combined ships have been built in order to minimize ballast voyages and to take advantage of the highest freight rates on either market, oil or dry cargo market. Then their versatility should have been very attractive for shipowners. So why has the combined fleet shrunk to such an extent? This paper provides an analysis of the employment of combined ships, how this has been influenced since the 1970s, and how these ships may have influenced oil and dry market balances. The research identifies the decisive role that grain trade seems to be able to play about shifting markets, and that combined ships were the largest bulk carriers in the 1970s. It is an opportunity to stress that freight rates are not always the only salient point for a shipowner's decision and to consider the importance of combination ships contribution to shipping markets.     

On the nature and sorces of controversy in the economic analysis of the liner shipping industry†

The simulations performed show that demand for quality tankers has to increase by 30% for a two-tier tanker market to emerge. The two-tier freight structure will only last for 3–5 years due to contracting induced by higher freight rates. This means that OPA does not by itself result in higher freight rates for tankers that comply with the requirements. If Western Europe also closes their trades to substandard tankers, a two-tier market emerges and quality tankers obtain a premium. The paper presents a simulation model for international tanker markets. The non-linear complementary equilibrium model solves for a sequence of static equilibria in segmented tanker freight markets, shipbuilding and scrapping markets. Freight markets are segmented according to quality requirements for tankers. The model specifies three tanker classes and one—quality tankers—can operate both market segments.     

Is there potential for a two-tier tanker market?

The simulations performed show that demand for quality tankers has to increase by 30% for a two-tier tanker market to emerge. The two-tier freight structure will only last for 3-5 years due to contracting induced by higher freight rates. This means that OPA does not by itself result in higher freight rates for tankers that comply with the requirements. If Western Europe also closes their trades to substandard tankers, a two-tier market emerges and quality tankers obtain a premium. The paper presents a simulation model for international tanker markets. The non-linear complementary equilibrium model solves for a sequence of static equilibria in segmented tanker freight markets, shipbuilding and scrapping markets. Freight markets are segmented according to quality requirements for tankers. The model specifies three tanker classes and one quality tankers can operate both market segments.     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

信息技术市场拓展方法研究

科学技术的发展遵循一定的轨迹,也会为信息技术市场带来必然的改变.面对众多的市场机会和激烈的竞争环境,需要通过科学有效的方法找准市场规律,以新的视角开拓差异化市场,使企业进入可持续发展的良性循环中.本文通过分析3种技术发展趋势,展开讨论了新市场的切入方法,并分享3个典型技术市场案例供读者思考.     

国内外疏浚市场现状及发展

随着世界经济的发展，航道、港口等疏浚丁程不断上马，近几年疏浚市场十分红火。本文介绍了同内外疏浚市场的现状及发展。国内疏浚市场正处于供不应求阶段，巨大的挖泥船需求给中国造船业带来了新的契机。     

Shipper's councils: role and responsibility—a western view

Traditionally, liner markets have been seen as dominated by conferences on the seller side, facing small, unorganized shippers onn the buyers' side. This perceived asymmetry has greatly influenced conference legislation in North America (and more recently in the E.U.) and it has been deemed essential that government should regulate conference activities in order to curb any abuse of 'conference power'. In this view, shipowners and shippers are adversaries engaged in a zero-sum battle over transport costs rather than potential or actual partners in global distribution systems. This paper suggests that in today's global markets much can be achieved by cooperationn in the development of logistics systems and that shipowners and shippers may have much to gain from such cooperative alliances. A survey of shippers' councils in 1991-1992 demonstrates the diversity and increasing sophistication of many national shippers' councils, which devote themselves to the task of improving markets through education and the legislative process. The situation in the U.S.A. is different: for legal reasons, conventional shippers' councils do not exist. Instead, 'shippers' associations' play a commercial role in liner markets. It is suggested that European style shippers' councils can and should play an important role in the development and formulation of policies for internatinal liner markets. Such participation requires a cooperative industry environment quite different from the traditional adversarial approach, which is ill suited to global trade and logistics alliances.     

Competition in transit markets

Despite regulatory reforms in a number of countries, competition in transit markets is still relatively rare. Moreover, where it does occur it tends to be small group in nature and the outcomes are difficult to predict. In this paper, simulation models of competition in inter-urban rail markets and urban bus markets are developed and applied in studies of Great Britain and Sweden. It is found that on busy routes head-on competition is commercially feasible (although for rail this assumes low access charges) but is not socially desirable. For routes with thin demand (or high access costs), competition may be limited to cream skimming. In most competed cases, there appears to be a tendency for the provision of too much service, at too high price and (at least for bus) at too low quality. Rather than classical Bertrand-Cournot oligopoly models, transit markets may be best described by models of oligopolistic competition based on horizontal product differentiation.