我国规范与美国《海岸工程手册》风浪后报计算的差异*

在缺少海洋水文观测资料的情况下,利用风浪后报推算设计波浪参数是工程上常用的方法。探究了我国现行《海港水文规范》中“深水风浪要素计算图解法”诺谟图存在的缺陷,并与美国工兵团新版《海岸工程手册》的波浪图解 后报方法进行了比较分析,所得结论对于我国海岸与近海工程的波浪后报计算具有重要参考意义。     

Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy inference system and the parametric models along the south coasts of the Black Sea

Forecasting of sea-state characteristics has a great importance in coastal and ocean engineering studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate performances of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and several parametric methods in the Black Sea. For this purpose, different fuzzy models with different input combinations were developed for two different wind data sources (TSMS and ECMWF) at two offshore buoy stations. It also aimed to apply several approaches to event-based data sets for wave predictions. Generally, in literature the tendency is to use time series data for wave predictions. In this kind of prediction approach, lagged time series data are taken as inputs and current or future variables are taken as output. In this study, event-based data for each independent storm were extracted from time series data. Simultaneous or concurrent data of wind speed, blowing duration, fetch length and wave characteristics were detected for each single storm. These event data were then used to set up models. The hindcast results were validated with significant wave height and mean wave period data recorded in Hopa and Sinop buoy stations. The performance of developed fuzzy models were also compared with that of four different parametric methods (Wilson, SPM, Jonswap, and CEM methods) applied for two wind data sources at both buoy stations. Finally, it was determined that in the prediction of both wave parameters (H _s and T _z) the ANFIS models (R = 0.66, squared correlation coefficient, and MAE = 0.37 m, mean absolute error, for the best model in prediction of H _s) were more accurate than the parametric methods (R = 0.63 and MAE = 0.75 m for the best model in prediction of H _s).     

中国海岸波浪特征与建港条件研究

分析了中国渤海、黄海、东海和南海海岸的风与波浪特征。提出用代表波高描述海区年均波浪强度。时波高极大值应进行重现研究和归并处理。时港址选择、波要素推算和防浪设计有指导意义。     

Splash zone lowering analysis of a large subsea spool piece

Lifting operation though the wave splash zone is challenging. Careful numerical analysis in the design phase is needed to minimize associated risks. This study addresses numerical modeling and analysis of the splash zone lowering of a large subsea spool. A typical offshore construction vessel is used for the operation. The objective is to compare the effects from different numerical methods and parameters on the allowable sea states and the operability. These methods and parameters include wave short-crestedness, shielding effects from the vessel, wave direction and wave seed number. A coupled numerical model of the spool-vessel system is established in SIMO program, which is a simulation tool for marine operations. Slamming and submergence-dependent loads on the spool during the transient lowering process are calculated. A large number of time-domain simulations has been performed to derive the allowable sea states. The operational criteria for assessment of the sea states include slack sling, snap loads in wires and clearance between spool and the vessel. Operability analysis of the operation at one reference site in the Barent Sea is established using 50-year hindcast data. The influences from different methods on the allowable sea states and the operability are compared and discussed in detail.     

Estimation of extreme significant wave heights and the associated uncertainties: A case study using NORA10 hindcast data for the Barents Sea

The reliability of an offshore structure is dependent on its response to the extreme wave climate; therefore, an adequate knowledge of the wave climate at a location is a prerequisite during design as well as in marine operations. This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of the extreme wave climate in the Norwegian Sector of the Barents Sea, using wave hindcast datasets from the Norwegian Reanalysis 10 km (NORA10) database for four locations.We have considered three commonly used methods for the estimation of extreme wave heights, that is, the initial distribution method, the peak over threshold method, and the annual maxima method. The parametric bootstrap concept is considered in the estimation of the epistemic uncertainty related to sample size. The estimated 100-year significant wave heights obtained from the three methods differ, and the degree of variability in the estimates varies, depending on the dataset. The epistemic uncertainty due to sample size is wider when considering the annual maxima method.The estimates obtained from the three methods show the importance of considering different methods and their associated uncertainties when estimating extreme wave values for design. While it is difficult to single out the best method among the three, the estimated values give knowledge of the possible range of the extreme significant wave heights at the locations. Generally, the datasets considered in this study suggest that the wave climate is less harsh further north compared to the southern region of the Barents Sea. The datasets do not suggest any temporal trends in the historical significant wave heights at any of the locations.     

顶部张紧式立管干涉分析

顶部张紧式立管（TTR）是油气开发必不可少的立管类型。研究了南海1500米水深半潜式干树深水平台TTR的概念设计,使用ORCAFLEX软件建立TTR的干涉分析非线性时域分析模型,基于Huse尾流模型,分析了浪流方向为0°,45°,90°,135°和180°的100年一遇环境载荷下的立管间距。结果表明,浪流方向为0°时立管最小间距小于TTR最大外径之和,发生干涉,其他方向不发生干涉。TTR为阵列式设计的立管群,应当从多方面因素考虑以避免干涉发生的危险,合理安排立管间距、调整TTF等措施可以有效减小干涉发生的可能。     

Preoperational ocean forecasting in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea: Implementation and evaluation of the models and selection of the atmospheric forcing

Within the framework of several local and international programs, a quasi-operational ocean-forecasting system for the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea has been established and evaluated through a series of preoperational tests. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used for simulating and predicting the hydrodynamics while the Wave Model (WAM) is used for predicting surface waves. Both models were set up to allow varying resolution and multiple nesting. In addition, POM was set up to be easily relocatable to allow rapid deployment of the model for any region of interest within the Mediterranean Sea. A common requirement for both models is the need for atmospheric forcing. Both models require time varying wind or wind stress. In addition, the hydrodynamic model requires initial conditions as well as time dependent surface heat fluxes, fresh water flux, and lateral boundary conditions at the open boundaries. Several sources of atmospheric forcing have been assessed based on their availability and their impact on the quality of the ocean models' forecasts. The various sources include operational forecast centers, other research centers, as well as running an in-house regional atmospheric model. For surface waves, higher spatial and temporal resolution of the winds plays a central role in improving the forecasts in terms of significant wave height and the timing of various high wave events. For the hydrodynamics, using the predicted wind stress and heat fluxes directly from an atmospheric model can potentially produce short range ocean forecasts that are nearly as good as hindcasts forced with gridded atmospheric analyses. Finally, a high-resolution, nested version of the model has shown to be stable under a variety of forcing conditions and time scales, thus indicating the robustness of the selected nesting strategy. For the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean, at forecast lead times of up to 4 days the high-resolution model shows improved skill over the coarser resolution driving model when compared to satellite derived sea surface temperatures. Most of the error appears to be due to the analysis error inherent in the initial conditions.     

A Tool for Coastal Setbacks Demarcation over Rough,Impermeable Shores: The Test Case of Kavala Coastline (Northern Greece)

Although setback zones and lines are considered as a powerful coastal zone management tool ensuring public access, protecting the coastal ecosystem and minimizing natural hazards over developments, the lack of a solid and objective Mediterranean methodological framework for coastal setbacks demarcation appears profound. Especially for countries like Greece, this deficiency leads to long legal disputes encouraging illegal construction on the coastline. In this article a methodology on coastal setbacks demarcation over rocky, impermeable shores is proposed, followed, and implemented along a Greek shoreline, serving as a pilot case study. The methodology is consistent with the requirements of the integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) Protocol and the Greek legislation (L. 2971/2001), aiming to determine the “highest winter waterline,” accounting for the tidal and storm surge effects, the sea-level rise due to climate change impact, the extreme offshore wind and wave analysis, and the maximum potential wave run-up. Such a tool may bridge the gap between legislative provisions and actual ICZM Protocol implementation improving regional coastal management and planning.     

Estimation of directional wave spectra and hull structural responses based on measured hull data on 14,000 TEU large container ships

To ensure hull structural strength of container ships in association with their increase in size, it is very important to grasp the hull stress histories all over the hull structure in actual sea state. However, ordinary hull stress monitoring systems are insufficient for this purpose because of the small number of stress sensors actually practicable. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss an approach to reproduce the hull stress responses which are not measured based on the estimated wave spectrum from the limited measurement data. To achieve this, we introduce a new model to estimate directional wave spectra based on measured ship stress responses and ship response functions, and further we estimate other ship responses using the model. To model an arbitrarily shaped directional wave distribution, the 360° direction is discretized into 36 directions of 10-degree intervals instead of using a directional distribution function, and in each direction, the wave spectrum is represented using the Ochi (3P) spectrum with three parameters (average wave period, significant wave height, and kurtosis). The authors discuss the evaluation results based on two stress response combinations, and a comparison is made between the sea state estimates made by the proposed method and the ocean wave hindcast database (JWA). Furthermore, by comparing the significant values and the spectra of the measured response of the ship with the estimated response based on both the estimated sea state by the proposed method and the hindcast sea state, the accuracies of the proposed method and the hindcast method are discussed in terms of ship stress estimation at non-instrumented locations.     

Modelling of wave–current interactions at the mouths of the Danube

The target of the present study is the entrance to the Danube Delta in the Black Sea. The wave conditions in this coastal sector are usually significant from an energetic point of view and the relatively strong currents induced there by the outflow from the Danube lead to interactions between waves and currents. This process modifies considerably both the magnitude and direction waves, affecting also coastal navigation and sediment transport patterns. In order to assess the effects of the wave–current interactions, the simulating waves nearshore (SWAN) model was considered for developing a multilevel wave prediction system. Validations against measured data were carried out for each computational level. Five case studies corresponding to the most relevant patterns of the environmental matrix were analyzed. Finally, in order to assess the current effect for a longer timescale, an analysis concerning the variation of the main wave parameters was performed for a 3-month period considering some reference points. The results show that the currents produce considerable changes in the wave field, especially as regards the significant wave heights, mean wave directions and wavelengths. The Benjamin–Feir index was also estimated. The analysis of the variation induced by the current over this spectral shape parameter indicates that, in certain conditions, in the target area the wave heights cannot be considered Rayleigh distributed and freak waves may also occur.     

Evaluation of two atmospheric models for wind–wave modelling in the NW Mediterranean

The NW Mediterranean experiences, as illustrated by the last decade, strong and rapidly varying storms with severe waves and winds. This has motivated a continuous validation of models and the efforts to improve wave and wind predictions. In this paper we use two atmospherics models, MASS (from SMC-Meteorological Office of Catalunya) and ARPEGE (from Météo-France), to force two third generation wave models: WAM and SWAN. The evaluation and comparison has been carried out for two severe storms registered in November 2001 and March–April 2002.The ARPEGE and MASS models predicted higher 10 m wind speeds than coastal meteorological stations, a fact attributed to local land influences. Regarding the 10 m wind direction, models do not present large differences, although considerable deviations from recorded data were found during some dates. ARPEGE presents less scatter and lower errors than MASS when compared with QuikSCAT data.The 10m wind fields from both atmospheric models were used to force the two selected wave models and analyse the errors and sensitivities when predicting severe wave storms. The wave model simulations show some interesting results; during the storm, the spatial wave pattern using ARPEGE showed a higher maximum, although the values of significant wave height at the buoys were lower than the ones forced by MASS (with both WAM and SWAN). The SWAN simulations show a better agreement in predicting the growing and waning of the storm peaks. The prediction of mean period was improved when using the ARPEGE wind field. However the underestimation by SWAN due to the large energy at high frequencies was evident. Validation of spectral shape predictions showed that it still has considerable error when predicting the full frequency spectra. The storms showed bimodal spectral features which were not always reproduced by wave models and are likely to be responsible for part of the discrepancies.     

Assessment of wind quality for oceanographic modelling in semi-enclosed basins

The quality of surface winds derived from four meteorological models is assessed in the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea over a 2-month period: a global hydrostatic model ECMWF T511 (40 km resolution), a hydrostatic limited area model LAMBO (20 km), and two non-hydrostatic limited area models: LAMI (7 km) and COAMPS™ (4 km). These wind models are used to drive a 2 km resolution wave model (SWAN) of the Adriatic, and wind and wave results are compared with observations at the ISMAR oceanographic tower off Venice. Waves are also compared at buoy locations near Ancona and Ortona. Consistently with earlier studies, the ECMWF fields underestimate the wind magnitude and do not reproduce the known spatial structure of strong wind events. The results show that the higher-resolution, limited area models LAMI and COAMPS exhibit better amplitude response than the coarser ECMWF: there is a 3- to 4-fold reduction of the wind underestimation at the platform (from 36% to 8–11%). The wave response is also improved with LAMI and COAMPS: there is a 2-fold reduction in the underestimation of wave heights at the platform. These non-hydrostatic models also produce wind fields with more realistic small-scale, spatial structure during strong wind events. The temporal correlation between observed and modelled wind, however, is highest with the global ECMWF model due to the fact that large-scale features can be predicted deterministically, whereas small-scale features can only be predicted stochastically. Models with less small-scale structure have better correlation because they have less “noise.” This explanation is supported by increased correlation between modelled and observed waves, the waves representing a smoothing of the wind over fetch and duration. Although there is room for improvement, the high-resolution, non-hydrostatic models (LAMI and COAMPS) offer significant advantages for driving oceanographic simulations in semi-enclosed basins such as the Adriatic Sea.     

天津港外航道水动力条件及工程泥沙淤积研究

依据最新的水文、泥沙实测资料,利用风浪潮流泥沙数值模型对开挖深水航道泥沙淤积情况进行了计算。根据近年来现场实测水文、泥沙资料,结合本项研究工作进行了统计分析,为数模计算提供参数;建立了多重嵌套潮流数学模型,计算正常天气下工程实施前、后的海域潮流场分布情况;建立了海域风浪过程计算模型和泥沙运动模型,将波浪、潮流、泥沙模型耦合,计算了在年均含沙量的风浪条件作用下所造成的回淤情况,给出了航道建成后的年淤积分布情况。提出了天津港南、北防波堤延伸到16 0后的航道的淤强分布特征,从泥沙方面为航道的开挖提供了设计依据。     

飓风极值波浪数值模拟

飓风浪对于船舶航行、海洋和海岸结构物的安全意义重大,分析工程区设计波要素需要考虑飓风引起的大浪。采用YoungSobey风场模型建立飓风风场,以飓风风场作为第三代波浪模型MIKE 21 SW的驱动场,对发生在大西洋的飓风IRENE引起的飓风浪进行模拟,并将模拟结果与实测浮标数据进行对比。对比结果显示,MIKE 21 SW可以很好地模拟飓风引起的极值波浪要素。     

Data assimilation into a Princeton Ocean Model of the Mediterranean Sea using advanced Kalman filters

This study investigates the effectiveness of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman filter (SEEK) and its variants (SEIK and SFEK filters) for data assimilation into a Princeton Ocean Model (POM) of the Mediterranean Sea. The SEEK filters are sub-optimal Kalman filters based on the approximation of the filter's error covariance matrices by singular low-rank matrices, reducing in this way extensive computational burden. At the initialization, the filters error covariance matrix is parameterized by a set of multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) which describe the dominant modes of the system's variability. The Mediterranean model is implemented on a 1/4° × 1/4° horizontal grid with 25 sigma levels and is forced with 6-hour ECMWF re-analysis atmospheric data. Several twin experiments, in which pseudo-observations of altimetric data and/or data profiles were assimilated, were first performed to evaluate the filters performances and to study their sensitivities to different parameters and setups. The results of these experiments were very encouraging and helped in setting up an effective configuration for the assimilation of real data in near-real time situation. In the hindcast experiments, Topex/Poseidon and ERS weekly sea level anomaly data were first assimilated during 1993 and the filters solution was evaluated against independent Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) analysis. The assimilation system was able to significantly enhance the consistency between the model and the assimilated data, although the improvement with respect to independent SST data was significantly less pronounced. The model SST was only improved after including SST data in the assimilation system.     

Virtual hull monitoring of a naval vessel using hindcast data and reconstructed 2-D wave spectra

A novel virtual hull monitoring approach is assessed using full-scale measurements from a naval vessel trial to address two questions. First: Can this technique accurately reproduce stress spectra from measured strains? Second: Are responses calculated using reconstructed two-dimensional wave spectra from hindcast data more accurate than those using simpler wave representations? Stresses calculated using wave hindcast data, ship track information, and stress transfer functions compare favorably to those derived from strain gauge measurements at five structural locations. Wave conditions are represented using a spectrum model along with bulk spectral parameters (significant wave height, peak period, and primary direction) from hindcast datasets and by reconstructing two-dimensional spectra from hindcast partition data. Both approaches give good agreement with strain measurements but using the more-detailed reconstructed two-dimensional wave spectra yields better results. Results suggest that wave hindcast data are sufficient for accurate structural calculations, encouraging further study of virtual hull monitoring using wave hindcast data.     

防波堤平面布置对建设用海区波浪场影响的数值模拟

为研究燕窝山工程海域在不同的防波堤平面布置下的波浪场分布特征,应用波作用守恒方程和Boussinesq方程建立了大、小范围的波浪数学模型对工程区附近海域的波浪场进行数值模拟,统计并分析工程前后防波堤附近波浪特征站位的波要素。基于防波堤基本布置方案1,改变防波堤的长度和轴线角度,根据不同平面布置下的防波堤对波浪的掩护效果进行比较分析。结果表明,综合考虑防波堤附近波浪场的变化特征、防波堤特征站位波要素的变化及防波堤的有效掩护面积3个方面,将防波堤轴线以两段堤相交处为圆心逆时针旋转8°,并将直堤向东侧延长100 m,即方案2为优选方案。     

SWAN风浪成长模型在近海设计波浪要素推算中的应用

根据黄、渤海区20 a中最大风速对应的风场过程,利用SWAN模型模拟风浪的成长过程,利用针对模型推算所得的烟台芝罘岛附近海域的系列波浪要素,进行P-III型曲线的拟合分析,得到不同重现期条件下的特征波浪要素。模型计算过程中,只需对美国NCEP和欧洲ECMWF风场后报资料进行简单校正,据此通过SWAN模型推算的特征波浪要素值就可与根据芝罘岛海洋环境监测站现场观测资料推断的波浪要素值基本一致。     

边界适应曲线网格在天文潮、风暴潮数值模拟中的应用

采用曲线坐标系下的准三维近岸流波流耦合数值模型,采用边界适应曲线计算网格和两层嵌套方法,设计一套简单实用的天文潮预报系统,并引入风场以及考虑天文潮和风暴潮之间非线性作用的开边界水位,对2003年渤海发生的一次温带风暴潮进行模拟,计算结果与实测潮位吻合较好。