Investigation of model and parameter uncertainty in water quality models using a random walk method

A mathematical model to predict the effect of chemical spills in the Forth estuary in Scotland has been in use for many years. The model, based on the random walk method, predicts chemical concentrations in the estuary waters and estimates the elapsed time before the dilution is sufficient to render the spill harmless (making use of a toxicity measure such as the LC50 or a water quality standard). The model gives a deterministic result without any estimate of the uncertainty. Field studies using tracer dyes to measure the horizontal and vertical mixing rates in the estuary show that these rates vary over time. The literature on turbulent diffusion includes modelling applications using different parameterisations of the mixing process. This paper investigates the uncertainties in predicted concentrations due to model parameterisation of horizontal mixing and due to the variability in the measured mixing rates determined from surveys in the estuary. Estimates of the range of concentrations for a specific spill scenario are presented.The study shows that model formulation and parameter uncertainty are both important factors in estimating the uncertainty in model predictions. The uncertainty caused by the variations with time found in the measured mixing rates is found to be of similar magnitude to the differences in concentration resulting from using three different methods for modelling the horizontal mixing in the estuary. Uncertainties associated with model formulation could be reduced if a small number of longer timescale (e.g. 24 h) dispersion experiments were available. In addition, further data from short-term (3 h) dispersion experiments would give a better understanding of the distribution of mixing coefficients and how the mixing relates to other parameters such as tidal range and wind speed and direction.     

造纸废水排放对海洋生态环境和渔业资源的影响

以南通污水排海工程为例,通过造纸废水中AOX指标对水生生物短期对比试验,确定废水急、慢性致死安全浓度最高的受试生物类型为黑鲷卵,并以黑鲷卵的废水长期安全概率不低于50%的浓度值的包络区域确定为污水排放的混合区,依据数模计算出的混合区面积,结合各种海洋生物的损失率,计算出废水排放造成混合区内海洋生态和渔业资源的年直接损失,同时由AOX浓度增量的范围分级提出对废水长期影响范围区的控制管理。     

Wakes from Large High-Speed Ferries in Confined Coastal Waters: Management Approaches with Examples from New Zealand and Denmark

Large high-speed craft carrying passengers and vehicles produce wake waves that are different from both conventional vessels and smaller fast vessels. Wakes from these high-speed craft can cause environmental problems (such as beach change, ecological disturbance, and damage to structures and archaeological sites) and safety problems (for navigation and for users of the beach and nearshore) in confined waters. As a consequence of the higher speed, the vessel wakes also have a longer period than wakes caused by conventional ships and may lead to substantial wave action in shallow water environments. In both New Zealand and Denmark, issues relating to high-speed craft wakes were not addressed until after the vessels had begun operation, and complex coastal management issues with possibly broader application have had to be addressed. Emerging management strategies have involved regulation using speed and wave height criteria.     

深水刚性跨接管安装过程中关键因素分析

结合中国南海1500m水深海况,使用非线性时域分析软件Orcaflex建立“M”型深水刚性跨接管有限元模型。分析跨接管在波浪及海流作用下,三种典型安装工况：提升工况,通过飞溅区工况以及着陆工况中,不同浪向和绞车下放速度对跨接管强度的影响。并根据API RP 2RD规范校核不同安装工况中的牵引力和结构应力响应是否满足要求。结果表明：提升过程中,绞车需要控制适宜的提升速度以避免发生支撑框架结构碰撞;通过飞溅区过程中, 45°浪向角时跨接管的应力响应最小,为理想施工浪向角;着陆过程中,绞车牵引力达到最大值,数值仿真可以预报安装施工船所需的基本起重能力。分析结果对南海深水跨接管安装具有一定参考意义。     

Steady-state single cell model simulations of photoacclimation in a vertically mixed layer: implications for biological tracer studies and primary productivity

A numerical single-cell photoacclimation–diffusion model was constructed and used to develop criteria regarding the use of individual phytoplankton cells as tracers for vertical mixing and to illustrate how rates of vertical mixing might affect phytoplankton physiology. Both first-order and logistic representations of photoacclimation kinetics were used. Steady state was assumed for simplicity and to provide a starting point for further investigations. The modeled variance and higher moments (within a phytoplankton population) of a generic photoacclimative parameter all show trends, which are diagnostic of mixing rates and/or boundary effects. This allowed the establishment of criteria by which frequency distributions of phytoplankton physiological properties (e.g., cell fluorescence) might be used as indicators of vertical mixing. The same model can be used to predict the effects of vertical mixing on phytoplankton productivity and growth. Application of the model to both photosynthesis and carbon to chlorophyll ratios suggested that a combination of vertical mixing and hysteresis (as represented in the logistic model of photoacclimation) in acclimation kinetics can enhance specific growth rates of phytoplankton. This enhanced growth occurred as a result of mixing-induced variation in carbon to chlorophyll ratios and is in contrast to chlorophyll-specific productivity, which was maximal at low mixing rates. Differential rates of photoacclimation to upward vs. downward shifts in irradiance, may enable phytoplankton cells to better survive in a turbulent environment.     

叶轮级数对一种潮流水轮机水动力性能的影响研究

为了进一步提高潮流能水轮机叶轮的能量捕获性能(获能效率),对一种多级获能潮流水轮机叶轮进行了研究。利用ANSYS16.0 中的CFX流体仿真模块对一种潮流水轮机的叶轮级数进行了数值计算,对不同级数的叶轮进行水动力性能模拟,考察一、二、三级叶轮在不同流速下呈现的速度、压力分布以及流场压差变化情况,并通过样机实验进行了验证。结果表明,叶轮级数的增加可以提高轮机对水流能量的捕获性能；就各个流速工况下的整体获能系数而言,三级叶轮最佳,但启动性能有所下降,三级叶轮启动流速在0.75m/s左右；三级叶轮的最优水速在1.5m/s左右,理想状态下获能效率可达51%上下。     

Physical–biological coupling in spore dispersal of kelp forest macroalgae

The physical–biological linkages controlling the dispersal of spores produced by macroalgae that reside in kelp forests are complicated and laced with feedbacks. Here we discuss the fundamental elements of these interactions. Biological considerations include spore swimming and sinking speeds, their periods of viability in the plankton, and the height of spore release above the seafloor, which together determine the durations over which spores can be swept by horizontal currents before they contact the seafloor. Morphologies and material properties of canopy forming kelps may also influence the drag exerted on passing waters by the kelps, the plants' ability to persist in the face of rapid flows, and thereby the degree to which impinging currents are redirected around, or slowed within, kelp forests. Macroalgal life histories, and the size of spore sources as controlled by the dimensions of kelp forests and the density and fecundity of individuals within them, influence effective dispersal distances as well. Physical considerations encompass the mean speed, direction, and timescales of variability of currents relative to spore suspension times, the interaction of surface gravity waves with currents in producing turbulence in the benthic boundary layer, wind-driven surface mixing, water stratification, and shoreline bathymetry and substratum roughness, all of which can affect the interplay of vertical and horizontal transport of macroalgal spores. Intricate within-forest processes may induce attenuation of current speeds and consequent reductions in seabed shear, along with simultaneous production of small-scale turbulence in kelp wakes. Slower mean currents and smaller eddy scales in turn may attenuate vertical mixing within forests, thus extending spore suspension times. Further complexities likely arise due to changes in the relative rates of horizontal and vertical dispersion, modifications to the overall profiles of vertical mixing, and the creation of fine-scale secondary flows around kelp individuals and substratum features. Under conditions of more rapid currents, submergence of the surface canopy and the establishment of skimming flows at the canopy–fluid interface may introduce additional coherent flow structures that alter rates of fluid exchange to and from the forest. Many of these coupled physical–biological processes are just beginning to be examined in a rigorous fashion in kelp forests, but their potential importance is clear.     

雷达/红外成像复合制导面临的干扰及对抗

分析了雷达/红外成像复合制导反舰导弹武器系统可能面临的干扰手段。将受干扰阶段分为开机搜索阶段和跟踪阶段。按照敌方施放干扰的战术意图,将开机搜索阶段可能面临的干扰分为迷惑干扰和冲淡干扰两类,将跟踪阶段可能面临的干扰分为转移干扰、质心干扰、压制干扰和欺骗干扰四类。研究了开机搜索阶段重新搜索时目标的选择方法和依据,以及跟踪阶段对抗各类干扰可采用的措施及预期对抗效果。对研究雷达/红外成像复合制导的干扰与抗干扰技术具有重要参考价值。     

Biological effects of Mississippi River nitrogen on the northern gulf of Mexico—a review and synthesis

The Mississippi River currently delivers approximately 1.82 Tg N year⁻¹ (1.3×10¹¹ mol N year⁻¹) to the northern Gulf of Mexico. This large input dominates the biological processes of the region. The “new” nitrogen from the river stimulates high levels of phytoplankton production which in turn support high rates of bacterial production, protozoan and metazoan grazing, and fisheries production. A portion of the particulate organic matter produced in the pelagic food web sinks out of the euphotic zone where it contributes to high rates of oxygen consumption in the bottom waters of the inner shelf, resulting in the development of an extensive zone of hypoxia each summer. In spite of the significance of this river system to the coastal ocean of the northern gulf, we do not have an adequate understanding of the inputs, processing and ultimate fates of river nitrogen. Here we review available literature on this important system and propose a conceptual model showing how biological processes evolve in the river plume between the point of discharge and the point where plume waters are fully diluted by mixing with oceanic water.     

沥青再生剂扩散机理与扩散模拟试验研究

从扩散理论入手,分析再生剂与旧沥青之间的扩散机理．认为温度、再生剂性质和沥青性质是影响沥青热再生中再生剂扩散能力的3个重要因素。通过旧沥青向新集料的扩散模拟试验,分析了拌和时间、施工温度、再生剂量、旧沥青量对旧料扩散转移的影响。     

舰船主尺度参数对舰船气泡尾流几何特性的影响

为了解舰船主尺度参数对尾流中气泡分布的影响,为依据尾流特征识别舰船,激光、声探测舰船尾流以及鱼雷的尾流自导提供依据,采用热分层环境下舰船远场尾流中气泡数密度分布计算的数学模型.首先数值计算驱逐舰尾流中气泡数密度的衰减规律,并与实测结果进行比较,二者定性符合得较好.然后利用该模型数值计算3种典型舰船的气泡尾流几何分布特性,分析船长L、船宽B、吃水T、长宽比L/B以及长度吃水比L/T等舰船主尺度参数对气泡尾流长度、宽度、深度及横截面分布的影响规律.     

基于分层系数法与混合比法的长江口盐淡水混合规律研究

采用长江口4条入海汊道3个月的水文测验资料,研究长江口的盐度分布格局和盐淡水混合情况,运用分层系数法和混合比法对长江口实测盐度数据进行分析。结果表明:北支汊道的盐度最高,洪、枯变幅大,全年均为垂向均匀混合型;南支3条汊道盐度从高到低依次为南槽、北槽、北港;盐淡水混合强度从高到低依次为南槽、北槽、北港,这与长江口北港分流量大于北槽、北槽分流量大于南槽的格局相对应;枯季的混合强度大于洪季,大潮的混合强度大于小潮。盐淡水的混合强度呈周期性变化,涨急前后垂向混合程度最大,涨潮的混合强度高于落潮时的混合强度。     

东江博罗浅段航道整治工程数值模拟

采用一维三级联解方法，对东江惠州一东江口范围进行建模、率定和验证，计算和分析在各种设计水文组次(设计最小通航流量、整治流量、各级洪水流量)下，6个整治工程方案对博罗浅段水位和流速的影响，并确定推荐方案。验证结果表明：模型较好地模拟了河道的实际情况，可用于各工程方案之对比。     

FDPSO气体泄露扩散规律数值模拟研究

应用流体动力学理论,通过数值模拟得到了浮式钻井生产储卸油装置(FDPSO)泄露速度、泄露位置、环境风速等因素对气体扩散分布的影响。结果表明,定风速下,气体扩散速度水平方向较垂直方向大,平面内横向较纵向大;不同泄露位置下,气体的扩散分布则主要取决于FDPSO的设备布置情况;不同泄露速度或风速下,气体浓度有着先升高后稳定的变化趋势。同时依据模拟分析结果进行了FDPSO油气处理模块安全逃生路线设计。     

掺烧不同比例二甲醚柴油机燃烧与排放特性的影响

为研究不同比例的二甲醚/柴油混合燃料的燃烧性能与排放特性的研究,以4190ZLC-2型船用中速柴油机为原型机,运用AVL_FIRE仿真软件构建燃烧室高压循环模型,首先通过仿真数据与台架试验的缸压曲线进行对比,验证模型的准确性。研究结果表明：经过双喷油孔的二甲醚（DME）进入缸内后,呈现明显的燃烧阶段DME低温燃烧和柴油扩散燃烧;随着DME的掺烧比例的增大,缸内压力和温度峰值有增大的趋势,对应的相位有所提前;在100%负荷工况下NOX排放最终呈现先减小后增大;在CO和碳烟排放中呈现显著降低趋势。在反应过程中掺烧DME缩短了滞燃期和燃烧持续时期,混合质量较柴油好,DME和柴油混合后有良好的雾化特性,为后期的DME研究提供参考。     

海洋环境下港口工程混凝土界面过渡区氯离子扩散系数模型

通过现场暴露物理试验,实测得到了港口工程混凝土及相对应的水泥砂浆试件中氯离子的浓度分布结果,经回归分析分别得到了这两种试件的氯离子扩散系数。以此为基础,定量评估了粗骨料的稀释、曲折和界面过渡区效应对混凝土中氯离子扩散系数的影响,并建立了混凝土界面过渡区氯离子扩散系数模型。基于混凝土中氯离子扩散的细观数值模拟方法,验证了所建立的混凝土界面过渡区氯离子扩散系数模型的正确性。对细观数值模拟结果的分析可知:界面过渡区对混凝土中仅考虑粗骨料的稀释和曲折效应的氯离子扩散系数的提升效应不可忽略,应充分考虑界面过渡区的存在对混凝土中氯离子浓度分布和扩散特性的影响。     

Lagrangian modelling of plankton motion: From deceptively simple random walks to Fokker–Planck and back again

The movement of plankton, either by turbulent mixing or their own inherent motility, can be simulated in a Lagrangian framework as a random walk. Validation of random walk simulations is essential. There is a continuum of mathematically valid stochastic integration schemes upon which random walk simulations depend, each of which lead to radically different macro-scale dynamics as expressed in their corresponding Fokker–Planck equations. In addition, diffusivity is not a unique parameter describing a random walk and its corresponding Fokker–Planck equation. Spatially varying translation speed and turn frequency have different effects on population distributions. Validation requires extra information either in the form of the well-mixed condition for physical diffusion, or in detailed information on the sensing ability, internal state modulation and swimming response for plankton motility.     

On the fresh balance of the Adriatic Sea

The long-term mean fresh water balance of the Adriatic Sea is studied by ananalysing evaporation, precipitation and river runoff. Evaporation is computed from May latent heat flux and by means of bulk formula. In the latter case two wind speed data sets are used, namely those from the NMC and May. The sea surface temperature is taken from a historical Adriatic data set, and the air temperature and relative humidity come from the NMC data set. Two precipitation data sets are considered, namely the Legates and Willmott climatology and a data set consisting of data measured at 62 rain-gauge stations located on the Adriatic coasts. Runoff contribution to the fresh water balance is estimated from the long-term average flow rates of 39 rivers and the horizontal distribution of salinity in the upper mixed layer.The spatial distribution of the fresh water balance, as well as of its components, is analysed by means of monthly objective maps, from which averages and standard deviations are computed. The results obtained from the different computations are not always univocal, particularly in the evaluation of Summer evaporation, and are affected by relatively large statistical errors. Significant spatial and seasonal variability occurs, with a noticeable fresh water gain along the coastline of the northern and middle basins, while small areas of fresh water loss are found in the middle and southern basins. Nevertheless, on an annual basis, the difference between the fresh water losses by evaporation and the gains by precipitation and runoff is clearly negative, indicating that, unlike the whole Mediterranean, the Adriatic Sea is generally a dilution basin.     

围垦工程对温州近海及河口悬沙场的影响

在温州市瓯江河口及近海水域大范围连续大、中、小潮实测水文泥沙资料及水下地形资料的基础上,建立包括瓯江、飞云江及鳌江在内的大范围平面二维潮流及悬沙输运数学模型,并进一步以2002年为基准水平年,在温州市滩涂资源利用现状的基础上,就近期、中期和远期规划的围垦工程的实施对温州市3大主要入海河流——瓯江、飞云江及鳌江河口及近岸水域的悬沙场分布、断面输沙率、海床冲淤演变等方面的影响进行研究。研究表明:远期工程由于围垦区域较大,影响相应也最大,而中期和近期工程的影响则相对较小。     

Postembryonic stages of Nucellicola holmanae Lamb et al., 1996 (copepoda, poecilostomatoida), an endoparasite of the dog whelk Nucella lapillus (gastropoda)

The external morphology of the first three larval stages of Nucellicola holmanae is described. These stages were cultured from eggs found with the adults in the viscera of dog whelks collected from Robin Hood's Bay, North Yorkshire. The nauplius develops within the whelk. It moults to a metanauplius which is released as a free-swimming stage. The metanauplius moults to a free copepodid stage which exhibits a combination of characters typical of the first, second and third copepodid stages of other poecilostomatoid copepods. The infective copepodid stage which locates and penetrates the host is visible through the integument of this free-swimming copepodid.