Measuring marginal congestion costs of urban transportation: Do networks matter?

In determining the marginal cost of congestion, economists have traditionally relied upon directly measuring traffic congestion on network links, disregarding any “network effects,” since the latter are difficult to estimate. While for simple networks the comparison of the network-based congestion costs with the link-based ones can be done within a theoretical framework, it is important to know whether such network effects in real large-scale networks are quantitatively significant.In this paper we use a strategic transportation planning model (START) to compare marginal congestion costs computed link-by-link with measures taking into account network effects. We find that while in aggregate network effects are not significant, congestion measured on a single link is a poor predictor of total congestion costs imposed by travel on that link. Also, we analyze the congestion proliferation effect on the network to see how congestion is distributed within an urban area.     

Intertemporal issues and marginal abatement costs in the UK transport sector

An energy system model, UK MARKAL, is combined with decomposition analysis and sensitivity analysis to derive mitigation costs and emissions reduction potentials in the UK transport sector. The paper tests the robustness of a marginal abatement cost curve for the year 2030 for two parameters: path dependency and discount rate. Path dependency is found to be a significant, yet not substantial, influencing factor on the shape and the structure of the marginal abatement cost curve. Doubling the technology-specific hurdle rates shows that abatement costs increase significantly. The results suggest that policy makers should be aware of the underlying carbon tax pathway and whether results are based on society’s view or a private perspective.     

Evaluation of urban accessibility indicators based on internal and external environmental costs

This paper estimates urban accessibility considering types of transport and destinations, taking into account the internal travel time costs, and the ensuing external environmental impacts. Based on online and local surveys, an accessibility function is developed to allow for the construction of an accessibility curve for each transport mode that decreases with distance to represent decaying accessibility. An external environmental impact is associated with the accessibility indicators, taking into account the influence of the cold-start emissions that are particularly relevant for short-distance trips. The methodology is applied to neighborhoods in Lisbon, Portugal, with significant differences in their urban planning, mobility patterns, concentration of services and availability of public transportation.     

Alternative methods for estimating full marginal costs of highway transportation

This paper presents various methods of estimating the full marginal cost (FMC) of highway passenger transportation. First, the computation of FMC is performed using the marginal cost functions, most of which were developed by Ozbay et al. [Ozbay, K., Bartin, B., Berechman, J., 2001. Estimation and evaluation of full marginal costs of highway transportation in New Jersey. Journal of Transportation and Statistics 4 (1)]. FMC is defined and calculated as “total cost per trip” as explained in this paper. However, in multiple origin-destination and multiple route highway networks, the practical application of the network-wide FMC concept is complicated. These issues are addressed in detail in this paper. Therefore, in the second method, a multiple route based FMC approach is proposed for a given origin-destination pair in the network. It is observed that the marginal values of different paths vary as much as 28%. Third, a comparison of FMC estimation results of two distinct measurement tools is presented. The FMC estimation is performed between a selected OD pair using the static transportation planning software output (TransCAD). The same analysis is repeated using the stochastic traffic simulation software output (PARAMICS). The differences in FMC values estimated by static transportation planning software and microscopic traffic simulation software are discussed.     

A decision analysis framework for intermodal transport: Comparing fuel price increases and the internalisation of external costs

This paper presents the impact of fuel price increases on the market area of intermodal transport terminals. Aim of this research is to determine whether an increase in fuel prices is sufficient enough to raise the market area of intermodal transport to the same degree that would be accomplished by stimulating intermodal transport through policy instruments. Therefore, several fuel price scenarios are analysed in order to verify the impact of different fuel price evolutions on the market area of unimodal road transport compared to intermodal transport in Belgium. The LAMBIT-model (Location Analysis for Belgian Intermodal Terminals), which is a GIS-based model (Macharis and Pekin, 2008), is used to analyse the different fuel price increases and enables a visualisation of the impact on the market area. The LAMBIT model incorporates the different network layers for each transport mode by setting up a GIS network that includes four different layers: the road network, the rail network, the inland waterways network and the final haulage network. The geographic locations of the intermodal terminals and the port of Antwerp are added as nodes in the network and the Belgian municipality centres are defined and connected to the different network layers. Based on the different fuel price scenarios representing respectively a fuel price increase with 10% (low price case), 50% (business as usual case) and 90% (high price case), the results of the LAMBIT model show that the market areas rise in favour of intermodal barge/road and intermodal rail/road. Depending on the scenario, the degree of modal shift however differs. Additionally, in order to compare policy measures with the effect of a fuel price increase, the internalisation of the external costs is analysed with the LAMBIT model. For some years, the European Commission is supporting the idea that transportation costs should reflect the true impacts on environment and society, and is relentlessly pushing towards the so called ‘internalisation of external costs’ as a policy instrument in order to establish fair and efficient pricing of different transport modes. This requires monetarizing the external effects of transport and adding them to the already internalized costs in order to give the correct price signals. Results of this comparative analysis performed with the LAMBIT model are also presented in this paper.     

A meta-analysis of Western European external costs estimates

This paper analyses the external transport cost estimates that have been found in various European studies. These estimates seem at first glance to be highly dispersed, a fact which raises questions about their reliability. The article offers a list of the possible reasons for discrepancies between the various studies; differences in the specific situations studied, in the type of cost calculated, in the physical laws relating to emissions, in the measurement of values of external costs. It assesses the relative magnitude of each of these causes through a meta-analysis. It turns out that the main differences come from the specificity of the situation under review and the type of cost calculated. In comparison, differences in the laws and in the values methods have a lower importance. The conclusion is that the estimates of external costs are reliable for decision-making policies.     

The formulation of marketing strategy in urban public transport

This paper prescribes the parameters of marketing strategy formulation in the context of urban public transport and emphasises in particular the usefulness of the marketing mix and segmentation concepts. A marketing mix comprising the two primary dimensions of service attributes and promotion is advocated, the service attributes to include price, in-vehicle time, mesh density, frequency, reliability and comfort. Three primary trip purpose segments are identified viz. journey-to-work, shopping, and leisure/social trip segments, but these may be expanded into a twenty-four cell matrix once origin-destination and car access factors are included. The sensitivity of demand in these segments is examined mostly by reference to demonstration and experimental project data drawn from the United States and the United Kingdom. For the three primary trip purpose segments demand elasticity is shown to be greater for non-price than for price features; for both price and non-price service features elasticity is shown to be a function of journey purpose being least elastic for journey-to-work trips and most elastic for social/leisure trips. The role of promotion is examined and its importance to the successful marketing of public transport clearly demonstrated.This paper is a condensation of material appearing in The Management of Urban Public Transport: a marketing approach, by P. J. Hovell, W. H. Jones, and A. J. Moran, to be published by Saxon House and Lexington Books in 1975.     

Priorities in urban transport research

Research should be fundamental to transportation as a phenomenon, and yet central to the problems that need to be solved. This paper looks at the history of transportation research in the U.S. with a view toward understanding the bases of past research priorities, and deriving a basis for proposing future priorities. As a result, varieties of research are proposed. They include research which is progressive by criteria of the field during past decades, research which is critical or established as needed by rejection of those criteria, and research which arises as newly required by recent mandates to the field. As the most significant conclusion, it is proposed that research models be built — models which put the understanding of urban structure dynamics ahead of accuracy in forecasting.The authors wish to acknowledge the assistance of Ray Blessing, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, and Thomas McKim, Department of Civil Engineering, M.I.T. This paper has profited from criticism by Professor Daniel Brand. The original version was prepared with support from the National Science Foundation.     

Financing urban transport projects in Europe

Transport demand in western Europe has risen steadily in recent years and the forecasts are that the unrestrained demand will continue to rise in the foreseeable future. This growth has put considerable pressure on the resources available to finance infrastructure investments and to fund what are seen as socially important social services. The recent developments in eastern Europe and the anticipated growth of the post-Communist states will put further strains on the fiscal ability of authorities in these countries to fund transport investments and operations. The outcome has been revisions in the way transport projects are funded. This paper, taking a very broad view of what constitutes a transport project, examines the specific nature of urban transport financing in Europe.     

Energy conservation in urban public transport

Urban public transport energy use is determined largely by the weight of the vehicle, and frequency of intermediate stops, imposing repeated acceleration/steady running/braking cycles, in which much of the kinetic energy is dissipated. Energy consumed for the same capacity and vehicle performance may be reduced by coasting, cutting vehicle weight, and use of regenerative braking, on electrically‐powered systems, to convert the otherwise wasted braking energy into useful form. Particular attention is paid to the last‐named, identifying results of past experience and recent simulations. Practical constraints limiting the amount of energy actually recovered are discussed, including proportion of vehicle weight braked electrically, receptivity of the supply system, stop spacing and number of vehicles operated simultaneously. Reference is also made to battery vehicles and flywheel energy storage.

It is suggested that considerable scope exists in urban electric rail operation for reduced energy consumption, as existing fleets are replaced by lighter weight vehicles, fitted for regenerative braking. Further savings may come from use of inverter equipment. Rate of fleet renewal may be an important factor. Buses are already much more energy efficient, and dramatic gains are unlikely. However, there is some scope for use of flywheel energy storage, and regenerative braking on trolleybuses.     

Effects of subsidies on urban public transport

Because of a general trend of increasing costs of public transport operations and higher subsidies (in some cases accompanied by falling patronage) the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) initiated a study of subsidisation and sought the help of the Transport and Road Research Laboratory. The study, in which eighteen countries took part, was concerned with the aims of subsidy, the sources and conditions attached to subsidy, trends in subsidies and the effect of subsidies on patronage, fares, service levels, costs and productivity.The qualitative information concerning the aims of subsidy was analysed in relation to the likelihood of achieving such aims, taking into account current experience of attempts to switch car drivers to public transport. The quantitative information on trends referred to public transport stage services covering where possible the entire country and relating to the period 1965–77; these data were supplemented by data from 59 cities in different parts of the world collected in the course of a TRRL-sponsored study of travel demand factors. The relationship between patronage and service levels, and between subsidies and various operating factors, including costs and productivity, were studied using regression analysis and the general conclusion reached was that although the major part of the subsidy paid was reflected by reduced fares and improved service levels there may well have been some leakage into higher unit costs and manning levels.     

Alternative systems for urban transport in India

This paper is in the context of studying alternative systems of urban transport in India to determine the costs and performance not only for public transport systems but also for the total transport scenario (i.e. for all vehicles) such that the economic costs are inclusive of costs of time (conservatively), accidents and pollution. In view of inherent deficiencies and delays associated with a traditional transport planning process and its implementation, the paper develops quick response land-use transport planning models for Indian cities to enable integrated, cost-efficient strategies to be evolved, recognizing that urban transport is a function of urban size, form, structure, socio-economic base, etc. A simple statistically significant demand model identified from a basis of appropriate data represents the recommended demand model for Indian cities. This model can be then conveniently used to project trip volume for any Indian city in a future year. A simple gravity model is used to generate the trip assignment for hypothesized city sizes, forms and structures. The results provide a fairly reasonable approximation for the major corridor trip volumes and lengths in the context of the transport requirement for the metropolitan cities in India in 2001 and 2011 A.D. The GOI Study Group arising from the investigations reported in this paper and the discounted cash-flow method of analysis made clear overall recommendations in February 1987 for cities of various populations.     

Organization of urban mass transport in developing countries

The supply of mass transport has not kept pace with the demand in cities in developing countries due to rapid urbanization and severe resource constraints. Developing countries would benefit from a study of the experience in developed countries regarding organization of mass transport and may adopt a few of the successful techniques. Examples include: unified transport authority; intermodal transfer facilities; subsidy to public transport; light rail transit; and redevelopment of the area around main rail terminals. Developing countries would be able to implement most of these techniques. The possible contribution of developed countries to developing countries lies mainly in the area of rolling stock and advanced signalling for rail based urban transport and in training highly skilled manpower for operation and management.     

发展城市公交就必须超载吗?

据<信息时报>报道,2005年3月20日上午,广州一辆满载乘客的288线路公交车被执勤交警截停,交警以公交车超载为由对司机开出了罚单,除扣除2分外,还罚了200元款.对此,公交司机表示不满,因为在广州很少有不超载的公交车;交警的态度非常明确,按照交通法,公交车属机动车,超载就属违章行为,处罚是按章办事;而广东省政协委员王则楚对此事有不同意见,认为交警要以维护城市公共交通为先,公安部门应重新核定处罚超载公交标准.     

Land rents and transport improvements: Some urban parables

Define a transportation improvement's impact zone as the area within which resident households and business firms regularly utilize the improvement. Three simple parables suggest that the increases in impact-zone land rents that usually accompany improvements do not accurately reflect its benefits. Seemingly modest variations in the demand and supply relationships that characterize impact-zone residents can have major effects on the relationship between benefits received and the land-rent changes that are measured. Generally speaking, increases in impact-zone land rents substantially understate benefits unless these benefits are small either absolutely (because the improvement is modest) or relatively (because the impact zone is part of a homogeneous area of much larger size).     

Japan's urban transportation system in the major transport spheres

The urban areas in Japan have undergone rapid changes in the last two and one-half decades. At the same time, the urban transportation system has been faced with numerous problems which need to be solved urgently. This paper presents the development stage and problems in the three largest metropolitan areas, designated as transport spheres, in Japan. Japan's problems in urban transportation are similar to those of most Western nations with regard to such issues as rapid urbanization, growth in travel, increasing auto ownership, growing transit operating deficits, rising wages and air pollution. The differences are the large modal split of transit from automobile trips, major expansion of the rail transit network, and the large number of transit operators in each urban area in Japan. In addition, governmental policies to help solve the urban transport problems are briefly described. In order to make the policies effective, coordination among government agencies is required. The establishment of a unified government agency is regarded as the first priority in dealing with the urban transport problem. It is expected that the government will offer bold new countermeasures to cope with urban transportation problems.This report was accomplished with the kind assistance of Professor Jerry B. Schneider, Departments of Civil Engineering and Urban Planning, University of Washington, and Mr. Satoshi Inoue, an official of the Ministry of Transport in Japan, who is currently studying at the University of Washington.     

PC-based sketch planning methods for transport and urban applications

Historically, computer models have grown in complexity, and consequently have become more difficult to use. At the same time there is a growing need for quick-response methods and techniques for broad-brush policy formulation and decision making. The personal computer and its attendant software offer new means for quantitative sketch planning. This paper illustrates two PC-based applications for quick-response exercises. These involve interactive mapping and data analysis methods for the appraisal and interpretation of transport data, and the development and use of eclectic models for systems analysis and scenario generation. The LAMM and DIAMONDS packages are described, and their use in data analysis is illustrated. The Trends Integrator Procedure (TIP) is used to formulate a simple but versatile model for investigation of developments in an urban retailing system. These packages all run on PC's and offer powerful and adaptive tools for improved transport planning.Nomenclature a _i a technical coefficient indicating the influence of the unique factor component (U _i ) for factor F _i - c _ij a technical coefficient relating the influence of factor F _i on factor F _j - F _i the relative change in the level of factor F _i - U _i the relative change in the unique factor component for F _i      

The evolution of U.S. rail freight pricing in the post-deregulation era: revenues versus marginal costs for five commodity types

There have now been over three decades of experience with rate-making freedom for all modes of intercity freight transport in the United States. Most evidence suggests that regulatory change has been beneficial for the rail industry and its users. Despite evidence of positive impacts of regulatory reform of U.S. freight transport, there is limited evidence related to long-term pricing trends by commodity in the deregulated era. Moreover, U.S. shipper groups have called for increased regulation of U.S. railroads, citing increased rates and profits, and monopoly pricing to “captive shippers.” This study estimates U.S. railroad revenue-marginal cost ratios for seven different commodities between 1986 and 2008. Interestingly, we find no significant increase in revenue-cost margins for commodities thought to be “most captive” (coal and chemicals), while finding large increases for some commodities thought to be “non-captive.” These results may provide insight into the impacts of regulatory reform in other countries, where there are similar concerns of equitable pricing and financial viability. They suggest that a move toward a more market-based pricing system can enhance railroad viability without harming those with fewer transport options.     

Evaluating marginal improvements to a transport network: An application to the Santiago underground

This paper describes a simplified methodology designed for quick investment appraisal of improvements to a transport network, and discusses its limitations and advantages particularly in the context of a developing country. The approach basically considers:

- a method to define the total population (relevant origin-destination pairs) affected by the project

- the selection of a low-cost background model to represent transport demand on a network at an aggregate level

- the choice of a suitable marginal demand model (in this case a discrete mode choice model) capable of providing the required sensitivity and accuracy to model the project

- the estimation of the marginal demand due to the project during all the years of the study horizon, and

- a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the decision recommended using these two models.

Finally, the paper summarises the results of applying the methodology to the case of an extension to the Santiago underground; it was found that the project has a high social rate of return (almost 20 per cent). However, from the point of view of a private evaluation, it can cover its operating costs only.