Impact analysis of climate change on rail systems for adaptation planning: A UK case

Climate change poses critical challenges for rail infrastructure and operations. However, the systematic analysis of climate risks and the associated costs of tackling them, particularly from a quantitative perspective, is still at an embryonic phase due to the kaleidoscopic nature of climate change impacts and lack of precise climatic data. To cope with such challenges, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is applied in this paper to understand climate threats of the railway system. This model ranks climate risks under high uncertainty in data and comprehensively evaluates these risks by taking account of infrastructure resilience and specific aspects of severity of consequence. Through conducting a nationwide survey on the British railway system, it dissects the status quo of primary climate risks. The survey implies that the top potential climate threats are heavy precipitation and floods. The primary risks caused by the climate threats are bridges collapsing and bridge foundation damage due to flooding and landslips. The findings can aid transport planners to prioritise climate risks and develop rational adaptation measures and strategies.     

The impact of transport pricing policy on individual energy consumption: a modeling case study in Kumamoto

To investigate the impact of traffic pricing policies on energy consumption, this study shows a microeconomic quantitative analysis scheme to simulate individual consumption behaviors from a microeconomic viewpoint. Energy consumption is estimated based on individual demand of non‐mobility goods and mobility goods under nine policy scenarios based on strategies of gasoline tax adding and mass transit fare reduction independently or combined. Results show that gasoline tax adding has strong effects on consumption behaviors. Energy consumption reduces mostly because of less consumption of non‐mobility goods and car trips. However, policy of mass transit fare reduction has limited impact on energy saving because consumption of non‐mobility goods and mass transit trips increases, but the number of car trips decline by only a small percentage. Comparing with single‐type policy, policies that combined gasoline tax adding and mass transit fare reduction show less energy consumption. Findings suggest that policies that increase cost of car trips, such as gasoline tax adding, are very helpful to reduce the consumption of non‐mobility goods and car trips, which contribute to less energy consumption. However, reducing cost of mass transit trips suggests limited effect on energy saving. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating intermodal transport with logistics: a case study of the UK retail sector

Retail traffic is one of the main drivers for the growth of intermodal transport services in the UK. This paper examines the key factors underpinning this modal shift in order to learn lessons for other market and geographical contexts. Since successful retail intermodal logistics involves many actors, this paper is based on semi-structured interviews with major UK retailers, third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and rail operators, supplemented by document analysis. The qualitative data are analysed via a conceptual framework derived from the literature. Despite past successes and the presence of drivers for future growth, the paper identifies many operational issues without current solutions and the presence of ongoing public subsidy. The major conclusion is that the importance of 3PLs, aggregation and multi-user platforms must be recognised by transport planners in supporting the use of intermodal transport by retailers and other large shippers.     

Competition in the UK passenger railway industry: Prospects and problems

The promotion of competition between passenger train operators was a key aim of the 1992- 97 Conservative Government when it privatized British Rail. Although the potential for competition in the market was constrained through regulation at the time of the sale, competition for the market became intense. Regulatory controls are now being relaxed and the promotion of competition remains central to the present Labour Government's rail strategy, particularly in the form of a redefined and reinvigorated franchising programme. It seems to be generally accepted in policy-making circles that it is both possible and desirable to encourage competition in the UK's railway industry on the grounds that it can further enhance service quality across the network. This paper highlights some qualifications to this position and suggests that, for various reasons, a strong policy emphasis on market liberalization may be impractical or unsuitable, at least in the short to medium term.     

A study of train dwelling time at the hong kong mass transit railway system

This paper investigates the relationship between the dwelling time of trains and the crowding situations at Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations in Hong Kong. Regression models were established for the dwelling delays of trains due to congestion at stations, and a simulation model making use of the Monte-Carlo technique is developed to assess the reliability of the estimated train dwelling time. Therefore, the distribution and the confidence interval of the train dwelling time can be predicted on the basis of observed boarding and alighting distributions.     

Estimating the environmental benefits of ride-sharing: A case study of Dublin

Ride-sharing has often been cited as a successful method to reduce congestion and green house gas emissions. This paper examines the patterns of ride-sharing, in Dublin, and estimates the environmental benefits of ride-sharing both in terms of reductions in emissions and the vehicle kilometres travelled. Data from the 2006 Census of Ireland is used to examine the travel patterns of those that ride-share. The COPERT4 model is used in this paper to estimate the CO₂ emissions saved by ride-sharing.     

The measurement of train noise: a case study in northern Italy

This paper analyses the interactions between vehicles, infrastructure and environment for rail traffic. It identifies variables having a significant influence on sound levels, defines a standard procedure for measuring noise, and develops a database for setting up and calibrating train noise models. A pilot study looks at two railway lines passing through Vercelli, a medium sized town in the north-west of Italy. Four main conclusions were drawn. First, in certain conditions, variables that normally influence noise production can be neglected (e.g. when surrounding environmental conditions are constant, different types of train do not cause a significant variation in noise level). Secondly, when diesel trains are travelling at less than 70 km/h, a speed change of 30–40 km/h significantly affects the maximum noise level (Lmax). However, for electrified lines, when speed is below 80 km/h, a change of 20–30 km/h does not cause significant variations in Lmax. Thirdly, for diesel trains transiting at low speeds––e.g. near stations––noise emissions are strongly affected by acceleration/deceleration. Lastly, an approach based on ‘sites types’ is able to produce useful results because site configuration and the presence of building significantly affect Lmax. High buildings along the line can increase noise levels and may nullify the advantages derived from technological advance in the vehicles.     

Transport policy in Eastern Europe a case study of Hungary

This paper analyses the development of transport policy making in Eastern Europe over the last forty years and describes the role of the CMEA in determining national developments in Poland, Romania, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. The USSR, Albania and Yugoslavia are excluded. The planning system as operated in the Eastern Block, is described, followed by a particular case study of Hungarian policy making with respect to the transport sector. Specific tansport issues relating to Hungary are outlined before conclusions are drawn in terms of future developments in relation with the European Community.     

Assessing the usage and level-of-service of pedestrian facilities in train stations: A Swiss case study

A framework for assessing the usage and level-of-service of rail access facilities is presented. It consists of two parts. A dynamic demand estimator allows to obtain time-dependent pedestrian origin–destination demand within walking facilities. Using that demand, a traffic assignment model describes the propagation of pedestrians through the station, providing an estimate of prevalent traffic conditions in terms of flow, walking times, speed and density. The corresponding level-of-service of the facilities can be directly obtained. The framework is discussed at the example of Lausanne railway station. For this train station, a rich set of data sources including travel surveys, pedestrian counts and trajectories has been collected in collaboration with the Swiss Federal Railways. Results show a good performance of the framework. To underline its practical applicability, a six-step planning guideline is presented that can be used to design and optimize rail access facilities for new or existing train stations. In the long term, the framework may also be used for crowd management, involving real-time monitoring and control of pedestrian flows.     

Estimation of train dwell time at short stops based on track occupation event data: A study at a Dutch railway station

Train dwell time is one of the most unpredictable components of railway operations, mainly because of the varying volumes of alighting and boarding passengers. However, for reliable estimations of train running times and route conflicts on main lines, it is necessary to obtain accurate estimations of dwell times at the intermediate stops on the main line, the so‐called short stops. This is a great challenge for a more reliable, efficient and robust train operation. Previous research has shown that the dwell time is highly dependent on the number of boarding and alighting passengers. However, these numbers are usually not available in real time. This paper discusses the possibility of a dwell time estimation model at short stops without passenger demand information by means of a statistical analysis of track occupation data from the Netherlands. The analysis showed that the dwell times are best estimated for peak and off‐peak hours separately. The peak‐hour dwell times are estimated using a linear regression model of train length, dwell times at previous stops and dwell times of the preceding trains. The off‐peak‐hour dwell times are estimated using a non‐parametric regression model, in particular, the k‐nearest neighbor model. There are two major advantages of the proposed estimation models. First, the models do not need passenger flow data, which is usually impossible to obtain in real time in practice. Second, detailed parameters of rolling stock configuration and platform layout are not required, which makes the model more generic and eases implementation. A case study at Dutch railway stations shows that the estimation accuracy is 85.8%–88.5% during peak hours and 80.1% during off‐peak hours, which is relatively high. We conclude that the estimation of dwell times at short stop stations without passenger data is possible. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relative contribution of transportation to supply chain greenhouse gas emissions: A case study of American wheat

This life cycle assessment case study puts the supply chain contribution of transportation to greenhouse gas emissions in context with other contributors using American wheat grain as a representative product. Multiple locations, species and routes to market are investigated. Transportation contributes 39–56% of the supply chain emissions, whereas there is a 101% intra-species and 62% inter-species variation in greenhouse gas emissions from production, demonstrating that transportation is both of smaller magnitude, and less sensitive than other factors, in particular, field sequestration.     

Electric vehicle park-charge-ride programs: A planning framework and case study in Chicago

In suburban areas, combining the use of electric vehicles (EV) and transit systems in an EV Park-Charge-Ride (PCR) approach can potentially help improve transit accessibility, facilitate EV charging and adoption, and reduce the need for long-distance driving and ensuing impacts. Despite the anticipated growth of EV adoption and charging demand, PCR programs are limited. With a focus on multi-modal trips, this study proposes a generic planning process that integrates EV infrastructure development with transit systems, develops a systematic assessment approach to fostering the PCR adoption, and illustrates a case implementation in Chicago. Specifically, this study develops a Suitability Index (SI) for EV charging locations at parking spots that are suitable for both EV charging and transit connections. SI can be customized for short-term and long-term planning scenarios. SI values are derived in Chicago as an example for (1) commuter rail stations (for work trips), and (2) shopping centers near transit stops as potential opportunities for additional weekday parking and EV charging (for multi-purpose trips/MPT). Furthermore, carbon emissions and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) across various travel modes and trip scenarios (i.e., work trips and MPT) are calculated. Compared to the baseline of driving a conventional vehicle, this study found that an EV PCR commuter can reduce up to 87% of personal VMT and 52% of carbon emissions. A more active role of the public sector in the PCR program development is recommended.     

The effects of ozone action day public advisories on train ridership in Chicago

Ground level ozone is a criteria pollutant that is significantly affected by transportation patterns. Ozone action day advisories represent one type of voluntary ozone-abating program operating in urban areas where ozone pollution is concentrated. When forecasts predict that ground level ozone will exceed healthy levels, public advisories urge citizens to voluntarily choose public transportation as a means of eliminating automobile trips and reducing mobile emissions. To obtain credit for emission reductions spurred by voluntary programs, states must provide verifiable reduction estimates. This paper applies a fixed effects regression model to a panel of hourly Chicago Transit Authority train ridership data to evaluate the potential effects of Ozone Action Day advisories in Chicago from 2002 to 2003. Findings show that while the overall effect of ozone action days on ridership is not significant, there are statistically significant changes in hourly ridership patterns that indicate a more complex relationship between the public advisories and travel behavior.     

Assessing the cost of transfer inconvenience in public transport systems: A case study of the London Underground

Few studies have adequately assessed the cost of transfers² in public transport systems, or provided useful guidance on transfer improvements, such as where to invest (which facility), how to invest (which aspect), and how much to invest (quantitative justification of the investment). This paper proposes a new method based on path choice,³ taking into account both the operator’s service supply and the customers’ subjective perceptions to assess transfer cost and to identify ways to reduce it. This method evaluates different transfer components (e.g., transfer walking, waiting, and penalty) with distinct policy solutions and differentiates between transfer stations and movements.The method is applied to one of the largest and most complex public transport systems in the world, the London Underground (LUL), with a focus on 17 major transfer stations and 303 transfer movements. This study confirms that transfers pose a significant cost to LUL, and that cost is distributed unevenly across stations and across platforms at a station. Transfer stations are perceived very differently by passengers in terms of their overall cost and composition. The case study suggests that a better understanding of transfer behavior and improvements to the transfer experience could significantly benefit public transport systems.     

A new approach for improving the performance of freight train timetabling of a single-track railway system

A new approach for improving the performance of freight train timetabling for single-track railways is proposed. Using the idea of a fixed-block signaling system, we develop a matrix representation to express the occupation of inter- and intra-station tracks by trains illustrating the train blocking time diagram in its entirety. Train departure times, dwell times, and unnecessary stopping are adjusted to reduce average train travel time and single train travel time. Conflicts between successive stations and within stations are identified and solved. A fuzzy logic system is further used to adjust the range of train departure times and checks are made to determine whether dwell times and time intervals can be adjusted for passenger and freight trains at congested stations to minimize train waiting times. By combining manual scheduling expertise with the fuzzy inference method, timetable efficiency is significantly improved and becomes more flexible.     

The effect of railway local irregularities on ground vibration

The environmental effects of ground-borne vibrations generated due to localised railway defects is a growing concern in urban areas. Frequency domain modelling approaches are well suited for predicting vibration levels on standard railway lines due to track periodicity. However, when considering individual, non-periodic, localised defects (e.g. a rail joint), frequency domain modelling becomes challenging. Therefore in this study, a previously validated, time domain, three-dimensional ground vibration prediction model is modified to analyse such defects. A range of different local (discontinuous) rail and wheel irregularity are mathematically modelled, including: rail joints, switches, crossings and wheel flats. Each is investigated using a sensitivity analysis, where defect size and vehicle speed is varied. To quantify the effect on railroad ground-borne vibration levels, a variety of exposure–response relationships are analysed, including: peak particle velocity, maximum weighted time-averaged velocity and weighted decibel velocity. It is shown that local irregularities cause a significant increase in vibration in comparison to a smooth track, and that the vibrations can propagate to greater distances from the line. Furthermore, the results show that step-down joints generate the highest levels of vibration, whereas wheel flats generate much lower levels. It is also found that defect size influences vibration levels, and larger defects cause greater vibration. Lastly, it is shown that for different defect types, train speed effects are complex, and may cause either an increase or decrease in vibration levels.     

A parametric study of the energy demands of car transportation: a case study of two competing commuter routes in the UK

This paper presents a parametric study of the energy demands of car transportation on two competing inter-city commuter routes in the UK for all main categories of automotive vehicles. The commuter routes are between Bristol and Bath: one is fast and flat, the other is relatively hilly and with tighter speed restrictions. Energy demands were found to be closely related to the vehicle mass because almost all external forces on the car are either directly or indirectly influenced by the mass of the vehicle. Exposure to the wind was found to be an important parameter that can significantly affect fuel consumption. Reducing vehicle mass is an important way of improving the performance of the car. However, there are limits to what can be achieved in weight reduction because of safety requirements and the desire of car owners to have many luxury items in modern cars. The official European fuel consumption and emissions test is limited in the extent to which it measures parameters that affect fuel consumption. For example, the test does not measure the frontal area or drag coefficient of the car. The design of the route and traffic operation can have a very significant influence on the efficiency of car transportation and therefore it is necessary to consider route design in whole-life analysis.     

Shifting from car to active transport: A systematic review of the effectiveness of interventions

IntroductionA promising way to stimulate physical activity is to promote the choice for active modes of transport (walking and cycling). Over the past years, several interventions and policies have been implemented to stimulate this mode shift. However, information concerning the effectiveness of these interventions and policies is still limited. The aim of the present study was to systematically review the effectiveness of interventions designed to stimulate a shift from car use to cycling or walking and to obtain insight into the intervention tools that have been used to promote and/or implement these interventions.MethodsFive databases were searched and articles published in English, Dutch, German, Danish, Norwegian and Swedish were included. Only studies that focussed on a mode shift from car use towards active transport in a general adult population, which were published in peer reviewed journals and which investigated effectiveness were included. Intervention tools used were categorized by using the model of Hoogerwerf & Herweijer, as either legal, economic (subsidy, reward system, penalty), communicative (written materials, behavioural tools) and physical tools (providing bicycles, providing better bicycle facilities at work, adjustment of the environment).ResultsNineteen studies met our inclusion criteria. Studies included described work-place-based interventions, architectural and urbanistic adjustments, population-wide interventions, and bicycle-renting systems. Nearly all studies (except three) showed positive effects concerning a mode shift. Most of the included studies used more than one intervention tool and the tools used differed between types of interventions. However, information about the statistical significance of these results was often lacking and the study methodologies used were not of high quality.ConclusionNearly all studies showed results in a positive direction. However, the quality of the included studies was mostly low and intervention characteristics were poorly described.     

Railway planning in developing countries: a case study of Colombia

This paper describes a study of possible network changes for the Colombian railway system. A cost model is developed and the variation of costs with traffic density and with gradient is analysed and found to be different from that expected from experience in developed countries. The evaluation of network changes is carried out by a form of systems analysis in which two new lines and many closures are examined. Closures are evaluated by means of social cost benefit analysis incorporating a consumers’ surplus approach. The study recommends fairly radical changes to the present network configuration, these involving the construction of one new line and the closure of several existing ones.