A Comment on ‘The Myth of Travel Time Saving’

Abstract

This paper reports on what appears to be the first attempt to map the perceived holistic dynamics at work in contemporary Brazilian railway development. The published perspectives of recognized experts in the Brazilian railway industry were mapped using the problem structuring methodology known as Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA). SODA is essentially a cognitive mapping approach and, in this case, it enabled a classification of the issues involved in railway development, as well as the detailed analysis of particular causes and effects acting upon the issues. Two particularly disturbing results are discussed in some length: the detrimental effects of the alleged misappropriations of public funds, and the identification of a degenerative feedback loop system at the heart of railway decision‐making. Overall, the paper shows that the situation faced by railway development in Brazil is constituted by a dynamic interaction of non‐independent problems, indicating the presence of a complex problem‐system requiring conceptual structure in a manner that permits analysis without ignoring systemic integrity. As such, the paper serves as a platform from which further use of SODA in this context might be considered as a decision support tool.     

A ‘sustainability window’ of urban form

With global environmental change and the rise of global megacities, environmental and social externalities of urban systems, and especially of urban form, become increasingly prevalent. The question of optimal urban form has been debated and investigated by different disciplines in numerous contexts, including those of transport costs, land consumption and congestion. Here we elucidate theoretically how urban form and the urban transport system systematically modifies sustainability concerns, such as greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollution and congestion. We illustrate our analytical considerations with empirical analysis. Denser urban form would almost unambiguously mitigate climate change, but it would also lead to undesired effects, such as a higher proportion of urban dwellers affected by air pollution. Our study presents a ‘sustainability window’ by highlighting trade-offs between these sustainability concerns as a function of urban form. Only a combination of transportation policies, infrastructure investments and progressive public finance enables the development of cities that perform well in several sustainability dimensions. We estimate that a residential population density between 50 and 150 persons/ha and a modal share of environmental modes above at least 50% corresponds to the sustainability window of urban form. The parameters of the sustainability window of urban form is subject to policy changes and technological progress.     

Examining the Impacts of Residential Self‐Selection on Travel Behaviour: A Focus on Empirical Findings

Abstract

Numerous studies have found that suburban residents drive more and walk less than residents in traditional neighbourhoods. What is less well understood is the extent to which the observed patterns of travel behaviour can be attributed to the residential built environment (BE) itself, as opposed to attitude‐induced residential self‐selection. To date, most studies addressing this self‐selection issue fall into nine methodological categories: direct questioning, statistical control, instrumental variables, sample selection, propensity score, joint discrete choice models, structural equations models, mutually dependent discrete choice models and longitudinal designs. This paper reviews 38 empirical studies using these approaches. Virtually all of the studies reviewed found a statistically significant influence of the BE remaining after self‐selection was accounted for. However, the practical importance of that influence was seldom assessed. Although time and resource limitations are recognized, we recommend usage of longitudinal structural equations modelling with control groups, a design which is strong with respect to all causality requisites.     

The ‘redheads’ of Niamey: an original way of providing urban transport

In Niamey, private motor vehicles carry 80% of those who use public transport. These vehicles are urban shared taxis called ‘redheads’ and run through the streets of the city in all directions. Their vital importance for the mobility of city‐dwellers justifies their strict supervision and the setting of fares by public authorities.

At present, the ‘redheads’ are in crisis. Taxi owners are no longer able to make a profit on their capital and are ceasing to invest. Urban buses are unable to replace taxis, for they operate at a large deficit. The government of Niger hopes to restore the level of transport service by means of new regulations for the taxi business in the city.

But this business is in the hands of both taxi owners and drivers, who, while partners in the operation, dispute over their share of the revenues. The aim of this article is to provide an economic and political analysis of this particular form of production of urban transport, in which employers who cannot control their companies, employees who reserve the profits of the business for themselves, and public authorities who are compelled to intervene, are coming face to face.     

Travel mode choice: affected by objective or subjective determinants?

This contribution presents theoretical considerations concerning the connections between life situation, lifestyle, choice of residential location and travel behaviour, as well as empirical results of structural equation models. The analyses are based on data resulting from a survey in seven study areas in the region of Cologne. The results indicate that lifestyles influence mode choice, although slightly, even when life situation is controlled for. The influence of life situation on mode choice exceeds the influence of lifestyle. The influence that lifestyle, and in part also life situation, has on mode choice is primarily mediated by specific location attitudes and location decisions that influence mode choice, respectively. Here objective spatial conditions as well as subjective location attitudes are important.

A ‘Less-flexibility-first’ Heuristic for the Placement of Inland Vessels in a Lock

Abstract

Inland vessels move goods along waterways (canals and rivers) and they visit ports. Because of their tidal nature, vessels make use of locks to enter ports or waterways. From a port management point of view, fast access to and from the port and high utilization of locks are important objectives. Where the former relates to low inbound and outbound waiting times, the latter relates to the placement of as many vessels as possible in the lock before its operation. This article includes a case study that relates to the operation of the Van Cauwelaert lock in the port of Antwerp, Belgium. Lock operation policy is as follows: vessels wait in front of the lock for a port administrator to assign places in the lock based on knowledge of the vessels’ dimensions. As such, there is no FIFO-discipline, but a ‘group-FIFO’-discipline, i.e. if n vessels are allowed into the lock, they are the first n vessels in the arrival queue. A heuristic algorithm is formulated for the placement of vessels in the lock. This algorithm supports the decision where to place the vessel in the lock, aiming to place as many vessels as possible from the arrival queue. At the same time, it supports the decision to start a locking operation or not, based on information about vessels that are announced but which have not yet arrived at the lock's entrance. The heuristic is called a ‘less-flexibility-first’-heuristic as it looks for pseudo-placements, showing which flexibility is left for the remaining vessels after placing a vessel. This article describes the implementation of the heuristic and provides numerical examples. A comparison is made between the heuristic results and daily practice, based on real-life vessel movements through the Van Cauwelaert lock in 2002.     

From ‘Our Air Is Not for Sale’ to ‘Airtrack’: The Part Privatization of the UK's Airspac

Air traffic in the UK has increased rapidly in the past two decades and is forecast to grow at a rate of 4.3% per annum between 1998 and 2020. The failure to develop the air traffic system in order to cope with this growth has had undesirable consequences, e.g. a rise in flight delays and near misses. Given the investment required in air traffic control systems to cater for this growth, the UK government in 2000 part privatized the National Air Traffic Services (NATS), the body in charge of the UK's airspace in a public–private partnership (PPP). The UK Airline Group acquired 46% of NATS and effective operational control, though the government retains a share in NATS and safety regulation is in the public sector. However, serious doubts about safety were raised during the debate on the PPP. Similar moves towards a commercial operation (i.e. corporatization) of air navigation services have been made in New Zealand and Canada over the past decade and these provide useful insights into the results of the corporatization process. This paper analyses the main issues surrounding the part privatization of NATS. First, it highlights the experience from New Zealand and Canada of the major issues involved in corporatized air navigation services in six different categories: funding, new technology and project management, safety, pricing regime, international opportunities, and customer responsiveness. The likely impacts for NATS given the lessons from New Zealand and Canada are considered. The UK government's provisions for the PPP and their implementation in the post‐PPP NATS are then outlined for these six categories. Finally, the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks have had major impacts on air travel and their consequences for NATS in the six categories are highlighted. This paper concludes with some of the issues that need to be addressed to ensure the success of the PPP for NATS.     

Direct and indirect influences on employed adults’ travel in the UK: New insights from the National Travel Survey data 2002–2010

Recent years saw a continuing shift in labour force composition, e.g. greater participation of women and a prominent rise in part-time workers. There are as yet relatively few recent studies that examine systematically the influences on the travel of employed adults from such perspectives, particularly regarding possible transport disadvantages of the fastest growing segments of workers. A robust analysis requires systematic data on a wide range of explanatory variables and multiple travel outcomes including accessibility, mobility and trip frequency for different trip purposes. The UK NTS data does meet the majority of this demanding data requirement, but its full use has so far been hampered by methodological difficulties. To overcome complex endogeneity problems, we develop novel, integrated structural equation models (SEMs) to uncover the influences of latent land use characteristics, indirect influences on car ownership, interactions among trip purposes as well as residents’ self-selection and spatial sorting. This general-purpose method provides a new, systematic decomposition of the influences on travel outcomes, where the effects of each variable can be examined in turn with robust error terms. The new insights underline two direct policy implications. First, it highlights the contributions of land use planning and urban design in restraining travel demand in the 2000s, and their increasing influence over the decade. Secondly, it shows that there may still be a large mobility disadvantage among the fastest growing segments of workers, particularly in dense urban areas. This research further investigates trend breaking influences before and after 2007 through grouped SEM models, as a test of the methodology for producing regular and timely updates regarding the main influences on personal travel from a system level.     

Seventy Minutes Plus or Minus 10 — A Review of Travel Time Budget Studies

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive review of travel-time budget (TTB) studies in the literature for about the past four decades. Starting with the concept of TTBs, it discusses both the studies that support the existence of TTB and also those that deem the concept to be unfounded. Sociodemographic variables and their relation to TTB are also discussed briefly. However, as past studies use different data sources, survey techniques, and methodology for analysis, cross comparison of studies is not possible. Most importantly, the underlying cause of the regularity that is found at an aggregate level is still not known. The idea of TTB is important because, if it exists, it would mean that the total time spent on travelling per person per day will remain unchanged in spite of all improvements to transport. TTB has immense implications for transport policies and it is usually ignored. The paper also explores the available theoretical explanation of this concept, past research gaps and new analysis potentials. Recent directions in TTB studies are also discussed together with the potential use of multiday multiyear panel data in TTB research to explore the phenomenon better than before.     

‘Unconventional modes’ of transport in the United Kingdom—A review of types and the policy context

‘Unconventional modes’ (UCMs) of public transport have been emerging steadily and unobtrusively in the United Kingdom over the last two decades, largely originating in rural areas. Since 1977, there has been a quickening expansion of numbers and diversification of types in the light of governments' increasing concern with the cost of supporting ‘conventional’ public transport and the search for cheaper alternatives. An essential part of this review is to establish a definition of ‘unconventional’ as an aid to classifying the wide and increasing diversity of modes, and clarifying terminology. UCMs overlap with ‘community transport,’ which caters for the mobility needs of elderly and handicapped persons. In the context of bus service deregulation in 1985/6, the UCM sector is expected to expand although its precise future role is unclear.     

Design and evaluation of a grade-separated intersection: a case study of the proposed Belgrade ‘Hipodrom’

This paper presents the evaluation results of three traffic solutions for the complex grade-separated intersection located in the old part of Belgrade at the junction with the new bridge over the Sava River. The corridor to which the intersection belongs together with the new river bridge are parts of a great urban artery called the Inner Half Semi-Ring Road (IHSRR). The traffic solutions that are evaluated are defined in the preliminary design phase, based on two opposed concepts: a complete grade separation of all intersection legs (the CPV alternative – ‘grade-separated’) and a grade separation designed to minimise construction costs (DMC 1 and 2 alternatives – ‘minimise cost’). The evaluation procedure is conducted in three steps: first, the score based on expert assessment of the functionality of the design solutions is determined; second, the alternatives are ranked according to the value of a set of state indicators obtained by micro-simulation using PTV–VISSIM 4.10; and third, the final score is obtained by multi-criteria evaluation using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The results of the first evaluation step show a small advantage for DMC 2, a sub-alternative of the DMC 1 alternative. The results of the micro-simulation give advantage to the DMC 1 alternative. The multi-criteria evaluation provides a better ‘goodness factor’ for the CPV alternative against the DMC 1 alternative. At the same time, the least construction cost favours alternative DMC 1.     

Consumers’ attitudes towards electric cars: A case study of Hong Kong

The paper presents the results of a survey carried out in Hong Kong to gauge people’s attitudes towards the environmental aspects of electric cars. The survey shows that people in general recognise the positive environmental benefits of electric cars, but express concerns over their environmental costs, in particular those of battery waste and increased airborne pollutants emitted by power plants when the electricity is produced.     

‘Each flight is different’: Carbon emissions of selected flights in three geographical markets

Air travel is considered the biggest individual climate sin. Avoiding flying, however, seems impossible. In this paper we argue that the flight a passenger chooses can be significant. For this purpose we compared the carbon emissions of selected flights in three geographical markets. We found tremendous differences in the environmental performance of individual flights. Furthermore, we also found that flying with the most modern aircraft or flying non-stop represents, in many cases, the least polluting option. Nevertheless, we were able to show that there are exceptions to this rule. Based on our results, we provide recommendations to the industry and for further research.     

A model of managers’ preferences for location of freight facilities

The paper reviews the need for a better understanding of the factors which affect the location of freight facilities, such as depots, terminals, freight forwarding centres, distribution centres, etc. The development of an Elimination by Aspects (EBA) model to analyse such location decisions by the managers of freight firms is described. The results are shown to be comparable (perhaps even superior to) those obtained with a logit model. Conclusions are drawn with respect to both the use of the EBA model to analyse freight facility location preference, and the factors which affect such preference. Five factors were found to be significant: closeness to existing customers, closeness to arterial roads, availability of suitable sites, cost of truck fleet operation, and closeness to labor.     

A discrete dynamical system of formulating traffic assignment: Revisiting Smith’s model

Through relaxing the behavior assumption adopted in Smith’s model (Smith, 1984), we propose a discrete dynamical system to formulate the day-to-day evolution process of traffic flows from a non-equilibrium state to an equilibrium state. Depending on certain preconditions, the equilibrium state can be equivalent to a Wardrop user equilibrium (UE), Logit-based stochastic user equilibrium (SUE), or boundedly rational user equilibrium (BRUE). These equivalence properties indicate that, to make day-to-day flows evolve to equilibrium flows, it is not necessary for travelers to choose their routes based on actual travel costs of the previous day. Day-to-day flows can still evolve to equilibrium flows provided that travelers choose their routes based on estimated travel costs which satisfy these preconditions. We also show that, under a more general assumption than the monotonicity of route cost function, the trajectory of the dynamical system converges to a set of equilibrium flows by reasonably setting these parameters in the dynamical system. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the application and properties of the dynamical system. The study is helpful for understanding various processes of forming traffic jam and designing an algorithm for calculating equilibrium flows.     

Justice in transport as justice in accessibility: applying Walzer’s ‘Spheres of Justice’ to the transport sector

This paper seeks to provide a theoretical basis for a distributive approach to transport. Using the theory developed by Michael Walzer in his ??Spheres of Justice?? (1983), I argue that the transport good, defined as accessibility, should be distributed in a so-called separate sphere, i.e. independent from the way in which other key goods, like money or power, are allocated. I subsequently explore what kind of justice principle could guide the distribution of the transport good, once a separate sphere would be established. This preliminary exploration results in the elimination of a number of widely supported distributive principles, and in the tentative identification of a criterion matching the particularities of the transport good. The explorations in the paper are not intended as final answers, but rather seek to open the debate about the need for an explicit distributive transport policy and the distributive principle that should guide such a policy.