The trade‐off between efficiency,effectiveness, and social feasibility of regulating road transport externalities

This paper discusses the tension between the theory and practice of the regulation of road transport externalities from the viewpoint of the trade‐off between efficiency, effectiveness and the social feasibility of regulation. Various possible types of regulatory instruments, subdivided into ‘direct’ demand management, ‘indirect’ demand management and ‘supply side’ oriented policies, are evaluated qualitatively according to these criteria. Attention is then directed towards the trade‐off between efficiency, effectiveness and feasibility within the field of ‘direct’ demand regulation of road transport.     

Man and his transport behaviour Part 4. Fare strategies for public transport—a problem outline

Abstract

In April 1983, the “Fourth World Conference on Transport Research” was held in Hamburg. For a period of four days, experts from all parts of the world discussed transport research and planning problems. The discussions were divided into eight so‐called ‘sub‐topics’. Fortunately, one of the sub‐topics, ‘Man and his Transport Behaviour’ (chaired by Moshe Ben‐Akiva, U.S.A. and Werner Brög, Federal Republic of Germany) dealt with the individual and his behaviour. This complemented the traditionally supply‐oriented thinking of the transport planners by introducing the demand component which had frequently been neglected in the past. Since the view has become increasingly widespread that transport is meant to serve people, and thus, that research should emphasize the (potential) users of the transport system, the number of papers submitted and presented on this sub‐topic was especially large.

However, the number of papers which could be included in the ‘Conference Proceedings’ was limited and this would have meant that a number of interesting documents could not be published. Therefore, papers on four special areas within this sub‐topic are to be published in four consecutive issues of Transport Reviews. The areas which will be dealt with are ‘Telecommunications’, ‘Non‐Motorised Transport’, ‘Special Problems in Third World Countries’ and ‘Fare Structures in Public Transport’. The papers were selected strictly according to their contents. A brief commentary in each issue explains in turn the reasons for choosing each of the four subject areas.

Parts 1–3 appeared in Transport Reviews, 4, 99–113, 173–212, 273–298.     

Book review

Abstract

In April 1983, the “Fourth World Conference on Transport Research” was held in Hamburg. For a period of four days, experts from all parts of the world discussed transport research and planning problems. The discussions were divided into eight so‐called ‘sub‐topics’. Fortunately, one of the sub‐topics, ‘Man and his Transport Behaviour’ (chaired by Moshe Ben‐Akiva, U.S.A. and Werner Brog, Federal Republic of Germany) dealt with the individual and his behaviour. This complemented the traditionally supply‐oriented thinking of the transport planners by introducing the demand component which had frequently been neglected in the past. Since the view has become increasingly widespread that transport is meant to serve people and thus that research should emphasize the (potential) users of the transport system, the number of papers submitted and presented on this sub‐topic was especially large.

However, the number of papers which could be included in the ‘Conference Proceedings’ was limited and this would have meant that a number of interesting documents could not be published. Therefore, papers on four special areas within this sub‐topic are to be published in four consecutive issues of Transport Reviews. The areas which will be dealt with are ‘Telecommunications’, ‘Non‐Motorised Transport’, ‘Special Problems in Third World Countries’ and ‘Fare Structures in Public Transport’. The papers were selected strictly according to their contents. A brief commentary in each issue explains in turn the reasons for choosing each of the four subject areas.     

Are technology myths stalling aviation climate policy?

Emissions from aviation will continue to increase in the future, in contradiction of global climate policy objectives. Yet, airlines and airline organisations suggest that aviation will become climatically sustainable. This paper investigates this paradox by reviewing fuel-efficiency gains since the 1960s in comparison to aviation growth, and by linking these results to technology discourses, based on a two-tiered approach tracing technology-focused discourses over 20 years (1994–2013). Findings indicate that a wide range of solutions to growing emissions from aviation have been presented by industry, hyped in global media, and subsequently vanished to be replaced by new technology discourses. Redundant discourses often linger in the public domain, where they continue to be associated with industry aspirations of ‘sustainable aviation’ and ‘zero-emission flight’. The paper highlights and discusses a number of technology discourses that constitute ‘technology myths’, and the role these ‘myths’ may be playing in the enduring but flawed promise of sustainable aviation. We conclude that technology myths require policy-makers to interpret and take into account technical uncertainty, which may result in inaction that continues to delay much needed progress in climate policy for aviation.     

Amtrak,the attempt to renew U.S. rail service

The decline of railway passenger train patronage and the deterioration of service in the United States have led the U.S. Government to assume control over the operation of trains via a quasi‐federal corporation called “Amtrak,” but some basic causes of the decline remain and new problems will arise as a result of this action.

Two results of the neglect to assess external costs against the various transport modes is an unbalance in favor of those with the higher external costs and the continued, seemingly fundamental, unprofitability of railway passenger service, which exists even for equipment that operates at capacity!

Some way of collecting external costs will have to be found, and the problems created by the new intrusion of the U.S. Government into transport will have to be faced.     

A statistical analysis of consumer perceptions towards automated vehicles and their intended adoption

ABSTRACT

While automated vehicle (AV) development continues to progress rapidly, how the public will accept and adopt automated vehicles remains an open question. Using extensive survey data, we apply cluster analysis to better understand consumer perceptions toward potential benefits and concerns related to AVs with regard to factors influencing their AV adoption likelihood. Four market segments are identified – ‘benefits-dominated,’ ‘concerns-dominated,’ ‘uncertain,’ and ‘well-informed.’ A random parameters multinomial logit model is then estimated to identify factors influencing the probability of respondents belonging to one of these four market segments. Among other influences (such as socio-economic and current travel characteristics), it is found that ‘Millennials’ have a higher probability of belonging to the well-informed market segment, ‘Gen-Xers’ with a lower probability to the uncertain market segment, and ‘Baby Boomers’ with a higher probability to the concerns-dominated market (relative to the ‘Great Generation’). We also study the individuals’ expressed likelihood of AV adoption using separate random parameters ordered probit estimations for each of the four market segments. The substantial and statistically significant differences across each AV consumer market segment underscore the potentially large impact that different consumer demographics may have on AV adoption and the need for targeted marketing to achieve better market-penetration outcomes.     

High-speed rail's potential for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from short haul aviation: a longitudinal study of modal substitution from an energy generation and renewable energy perspective

Abstract

This paper quantifies and evaluates, utilising a ‘bottom-up’ approach, the effect on CO₂ emissions of a modal shift from short-haul air travel to high-speed rail (HSR), based on projected passenger movements, between Sydney and Melbourne, Australia during the period 2010–2030. To date, peer-reviewed studies assessing the CO₂ emissions from these competing modes of high-speed transportation have been restricted principally to a cross-sectional assessment, with a Eurocentric bias. This present comparative study seeks to address a gap in the literature by assessing, longitudinally, the CO₂ emissions associated with the proposed operation of HSR against the ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario between Sydney and Melbourne. Under the assumed 50/50 modal shift, and the Australian government's current renewable electricity target, an annual reduction in CO₂ emissions of approximately 14% could be achieved when compared with a ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario. This percentage reduction represents a 62 kt reduction in base year, 2010, and a 114 kt reduction in the final year, 2030. In total, the overall reduction achieved by such a modal shift, under the assumed conditions, during the period 2010–2030, equates to approximately 1.87 Mt of CO₂. Importantly, if the electrical energy supply for HSR operations was further ‘decarbonised’, then it follows that a greater emission reduction would be achieved.     

Passengers’ Perceived Service Quality of City Buses in Taipei: Scale Development and Measurement

Abstract

To understand fully passengers’ perceptions and expectations of the bus service quality in Taipei, business managers and governmental agencies must seek a proper scale that can reflect passengers’ opinions accurately. This study develops and tests a service quality scale designed for a city bus transit system in Taipei. Churchill’s paradigm and a focus group interview were combined into a multistage scale development procedure. Based on the procedure, Taipei city buses were selected as the example, for which a service quality scale was developed. The final scale contains four dimensions and 20 items. These four dimensions are ‘interaction with passengers’, ‘tangible service equipment’, ‘convenience of service’ and ‘operating management support’. Finally, the results of scale development and the managerial applications of the service quality scale for the city transit system are discussed.     

Carnivore incidents with U.S. civil aircraft

Wildlife incidents with aircraft are of concern in the United States as they pose a risk to human safety and economic losses for the aviation industry. Most previous research on wildlife-aircraft incidents has emphasized birds, bats, and ungulates. We queried the Federal Aviation Administration’s National Wildlife Strike Database from 1990 to 2012 to characterize carnivore incidents with U.S. civil aircraft. We found 1016 carnivore incidents with aircraft representing at least 16 species, with coyotes (n = 404) being the species most frequently struck. California and Texas had the most reported incidents and incidents were most likely to occur at night from August to November. Overall estimated damage to aircraft was US$ 7 million. Coinciding with the increase in air traffic, the rate of carnivore-aircraft incidents increased 13.1% annually from 1990 to 2012 whereas the rate of damaging incidents remained fairly constant. Due to the increase in carnivore-aircraft incidents from 1990 to 2012, we recommend further research on techniques to increase detection of carnivores and implementation and scheduled maintenance of perimeter high fences for exclusion. Additionally, we recommend increasing patrol of runways, especially during peak incident periods (July–November) and at night (2000–0600 h).     

Assessing Service Quality,Switching Costs and Customer Loyalty in Home‐Delivery Services in Taiwan

Abstract

This study empirically investigated service quality, switching costs and customer loyalty from home‐delivery services' customers' perceptive. With regard to service quality attributes, findings indicated that customers were most satisfied with ‘range of delivery’, followed by ‘seldom loses parcels’, ‘invoice accuracy’, ‘prompt and reliable collection’ and ‘delivery by due time’. They were least satisfied with competitiveness of price. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was employed to analyse the impact of service quality and switching costs on customer loyalty from customers' perspective. Results revealed that service quality positively influenced switching costs and customer loyalty, and switching costs had a positive effect on customer loyalty. Investigation of the moderating effect of switching costs on the relationship between service quality and customer loyalty indicated that it was significantly important. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings for firms providing home‐delivery services are discussed.     

Calculation of external costs for freight transport

Abstract

The negative impacts of transport are in general associated with costs. These costs are usually denoted as ‘external costs’ or ‘externalities’. This paper presents a tool for calculating external costs for freight transport together with its application to a number of case studies. The categories considered include: air pollution, greenhouse gases, noise, accidents and congestion. Results are presented for a number of different transport alternatives as total costs and divided into categories. The uncertainties in the results are discussed. The assessment of these costs is essential for predicting future transport costs.     

Optimal tank-trailer routing using the ILOG constraint programming – a Taiwan case study

Abstract

This paper investigates the routing of pressurized tank trailers and proposes a scheduling plan which ensures the practical delivery of industrial gases under the objective of reducing transportation costs. Using constraint programming, we solve a combinatorial optimization problem that incorporates both hard and soft constraints for routing and scheduling tank trailers. Hard constraints are resource and safety/regulation constraints, whereas soft constraints are utilization and efficiency constraints. This approach enables tank-trailer routing and scheduling management to consider different combinations of parameters and view the results in ‘real-time.’ The routing and scheduling results based on a case study in Taiwan fulfil the goals of avoiding risks associated with transporting industrial gases, and attaining efficient delivery while conforming to regulations and consistent with good business practice. The results also suggest that significant economies in distribution costs are possible.     

On incentives and optimal effort to improve bus transit performance

ABSTRACT

This paper studies incentive-based subsidy to transit systems to improve performance. It derives a formula for optimal effort that equalizes marginal cost and marginal benefit and derives some principles from it among which is that the larger the value of a transit system’s performance criterion the larger the effort it will exert to improve it. Next, using a constrained cost minimization approach it derives a nonlinear cost function that includes optimal effort and estimates it using an unbalanced panel data of single mode U.S. bus transit systems. The results show that optimal effort is the equivalent of seven full-time employees (15,243 labor hours) per year and in real terms it results in 0.6% cost saving (US$198,331) and US$836,796 in incentive subsidy per observation. The implications of these findings are examined.     

Impact assessment of the Internet of Things on feeder transit performance

ABSTRACT

Efficient planning for demand responsive transit (DRT) can contribute to fulfilling the first/last mile transport needs for users of a major transit line. With the advancement in communication technologies, the internet is expected to assist this growing need of providing first/last mile connectivity. This is proposed to be achieved through a network created by Internet of Things (IoT). This paper evaluates the effect of implementation of IoT on service quality (or disutility) of DRT for two scenarios – with enabled-IoT (e-IoT) and with disabled-IoT (d-IoT). Data from five different DRT-like systems known as Call-n-Ride (CnR) routes operating in Denver, Colorado, are used for evaluation purposes. These CnR routes are Meridian, Interlocken, South Inverness, Broomfield and Louisville. Results show that, in general, all CnR routes would experience more than a 58 percent decrease in disutility if their operations were based on ‘with e-IoT’ operations. Interlocken would record the largest percentage decrease (74 percent) in disutility if its route service switched from the ‘with d-IoT’ to the ‘with e-IoT’ scenario.     

A structural equation model of activity participation and travel behavior using longitudinal data

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic structural equation model (SEM) that explicitly addresses complicated causal relationships among socio-demographics, activity participation, and travel behavior. The model assumes that activity participation and travel patterns in the current year are affected by those in previous years. Using the longitudinal dataset collected from Puget sound transportation panel ‘wave 3’ and ‘wave 4,’ these assumptions are tested with suggested SEMs. Within each wave, the model is structured to have a three-level causal relationship that describes interactions among endogenous variables under time-budget constraints. The resulting coefficients representing the activity durations indicate that people tend to allocate their time according to the importance and the obligation of the activity level. Results from the dynamic SEM confirm the fact that people's current activity and travel behavior do have effects on those in the future. The resulting model also shows that activity participation and travel behavior in ‘wave 3’ are closely related to those in ‘wave 4.’ These explicit explanations of relationships among variables could provide important perspectives in the activity-based approach which becomes recognized as a better analytical tool for the transportation planning and policy making process.     

The impact of Gulf carrier competition on U.S. airlines

Gulf carriers, such as Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways, have expanded aggressively and are creating an increasingly dense global network. These carriers’ future growth prospects, however, hinge on their ability to gain access to markets in Europe and America, for example. Existing bilateral agreements stifle the Gulf carriers’ ambitious expansion plans in some instances, and incumbent carriers lobby to restrict further market access. To contribute to this debate, the objective of this research is to empirically examine the effects of Gulf carrier competition on U.S. carriers’ passenger volumes and fares in international route markets. Based on data obtained from the U.S. Department of Transportation, the empirical results suggest that greater competition by Gulf carriers in U.S. international markets is associated with (1) significant growth in U.S.–Middle East traffic volumes and (2) small but statistically significant traffic losses and fare reductions for U.S. carriers in route markets connecting the U.S. with Africa, Asia, Australia and Europe.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain — (A) the proposals

Abstract

Over the past five years there has been an unprecedented stream of transport legislation in Britain, and policy has switched significantly towards the provision of services commensurate with market demand. The most important single document has been the recent publication of the White Paper on ‘Buses’ which could bring about dramatic changes in the road passenger transport industry. This introductory section outlines the arguments for and against change and then summarizes the proposals.     

Understanding transport mode choice for commuting: the role of affect

This study examines the relationship between positive and negative user valence and transport mode choice behaviour. We integrate latent attitudes ‘affect’ and ‘salience’ into transport mode choice models using the framework of integrated choice and latent variable modelling and simultaneous maximum likelihood estimation methods. The results are consistent with findings in similar travel behaviour and behavioural economics literature. The study extends the findings of previous research and has demonstrated that user sentiments about public transport mode and salient public transport experiences have a significant impact on travel mode choice behaviour. It was found that private motorised users are more sensitive to overcrowding and anti-social behaviours on PT than active and PT travellers. Key attitudinal indicators influencing individual transport choice behaviour are established to guide public policy. The key indicators of Affect and Salience must be analysed and addressed through public policy to enhance PT user experience and develop services and facilities to increase the utility of PT in-vehicle travel time.     

Probabilistic assessment of aviation CO2 emission targets

Passenger demand for air transportation is expected to continue growing into the future. The increase in operations will undoubtedly lead to an escalation in harmful carbon dioxide emissions, an adverse effect that governing bodies have been striving to mitigate. The International Air Transport Association has set aggressive environmental targets for the global aviation industry. This paper investigates the achievability of those targets in the US using a top-down partial equilibrium model of the aviation system complemented with a previously developed fleet turnover procedure. Three ‘enablers’ are considered: aircraft technologies, operational improvements and sustainable biofuels. To account for sources of uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to run a multitude of scenarios. It was found that the likelihood of meeting all targets is extremely low (0.3%) for the expected demand growth rates in the US. Results show that biofuels have the most impact on system CO₂ emissions, responsible for an average 64% of the total savings by 2050 (with aircraft technologies and operational improvements responsible for 31% and 5%, respectively). However, this impact is associated with high uncertainty and very dependent on both biofuel type and availability.     

Route Choice Behaviour of Freeway Travellers Under Real-time Traffic Information Provision – Application of the Best Route and the Habitual Route Choice Mechanisms

Abstract

This paper investigates route choice behaviour on freeways between Taipei and Taichung in Taiwan under the provision of real-time traffic information. Two types of route choice selection rules (the best-route and habitual-route) are analysed using ordered probit models to identify the major influences on freeway travellers’ route choice behaviour. The level of service associated with each route is defined as a generalised cost saving (GCS) and specified non-linearly with a threshold inherent to travellers. The marginal (dis)utility thresholds in the ‘best’ and ‘habitual’ behaviour models are identified through a goodness-of-fit grid. The results confirm that the thresholds for changing the inertia behaviour of drivers should be larger than the ones for choosing the best routes. In addition, the drivers are more likely to choose either the best or the habitual routes once the GCS are greater than the identified threshold values.