Considering landscape in strategic transport planning

The implementation of transport infrastructure plans often has significant impacts on landscapes, especially where new roads and railroads are built. Key decisions regarding the building of new transport infrastructures are often made on a strategic level, where the long-term development of a region is determined, and before the infrastructure project actually begins. In this paper we build on previous advances in Strategic Environmental Assessment theory by linking the process-related issues of the integration of these assessments in general to landscape issues in particular; we use a multiple case study of Swedish transport planning.Results of this study indicate that the particular planning processes we looked at failed to carry out strategic landscape assessments and integrate landscape assessments in the planning process. We conclude that this can be explained by the flawed procedure of assessing landscape, the unhelpful structuring of SEA reports and by process-related issues. The idea of applying a holistic understanding of landscape, in line with the ELC, was notably absent from the studied cases. The lack of consideration of landscape as a whole can be attributed to poor use of dissipated and fragmented knowledge about landscapes as well as weaknesses in the assessment procedure. Our results indicate that the traditions of EIA are still prevalent in the practice of SEA, despite the fact that SEA theory has moved away from EIA-based methodology to become a tool for integrating environmental concerns into decision-making and for paying close attention to strategic decision processes.     

Assessment of Cross‐Border Spillover Effects of National Transport Infrastructure Plans: An Accessibility Approach

Abstract

Traditional transport infrastructure assessment methodologies rarely include the full range of strategic benefits for the transportation system. One of these benefits is the contribution to cross‐border integration, critical for the European integration process. However, this is a key issue in strategic planning and decision‐making processes, as its inclusion may increase the probability of large‐scale transport infrastructure projects being funded. This paper presents a methodology for the measurement of the contribution of transport infrastructure plans to European integration. The methodology is based on the measurement of the improvement in network efficiency in cross‐border regions of neighbouring countries, via accessibility calculations in a Geographical Information System support. The methodology was tested by applying it to the ambitious road and rail network extensions included in the Spanish Strategic Transport and Infrastructure Plan (PEIT) 2005–2020. The results show significant and important network efficiency improvements of the PEIT outside the Spanish border. For the road mode, while the Spanish average accessibility improvement accounts for 2.6%, average improvements in cross‐border regions of France and Portugal are of 1.8%. And for the rail mode, the corresponding Spanish value is 34.5%, whereas in neighbouring regions it accounts for 20.2%. These results stress the significant importance of this strategic benefit and the consequent need for its inclusion in strategic planning processes. Finally, the paper identifies the potential of the methodology when applied at different administrative levels, such as the local or state levels.     

Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review

Abstract

Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy-makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost–benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works projects in many countries. Over the last few decades, there has been increasing attention given to the lack of demand forecast accuracy. However, since data availability for comprehensive ex-post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. This study presents a review of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is threefold: to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy, to highlight key contextual and methodological differences between studies and to highlight key focus areas for future research in this field. The results show that inaccuracy remains problematic for road, rail and toll projects alike, but also how the lack of methodological clarity and consistency calls for a careful interpretation of these results. Mandatory, systematic ex-post evaluation programmes are suggested as a necessary tool to improve decision support, as data availability for ex-post studies is often remarkably poor even for internal audits.     

Statistical mechanics for analytic planning: an application to domestic air traffic in China

Abstract

Statistical mechanics has shown its usefulness when assessing the topology of many networks, including those of infrastructure. Its principles take into account the large-scale and network-wide effects of changes in its key parameters, which in turn may provide critical input when planning for infrastructure projects. One objective would be to modify the pattern of capacity expansions inside a system to make it less exposed to local shortfalls in demand. To illustrate our point, we shall use domestic air traffic in China; airports are spatially distributed and they also need to respond to the potential demand that they face locally. Airlines that control parts of the traffic system are identified as agents. A relationship between the agent's behavior and the system-wide level of variance in traffic flows can be established by regression analysis. It is shown how intervention on these agents would reduce negative traffic variance while enhancing a more balanced, less costly growth of the system itself.     

Applying measures of modelling quality to a national time series: a benchmark for transport demand models

ABSTRACT

In current urban planning practice, macroscopic transport demand and assignment models are essential for the evaluation of mid- and long-term land use developments and infrastructure investments. The credibility of their projections strongly depends on their ability to reproduce present day traffic volumes. Obviously, a simplified model of reality will display some shortcomings, and the effect of these is asserted by quality measures that quantify the divergence from observed traffic volumes. There is, however, only rough guidance regarding acceptable ranges of these measures. Most of the literature on this subject approach these ranges from below, by discussing measures attained by operational models and using these as a benchmark, or by using the adverse effects of modelling errors to derive a minimum quality level. On the contrary, this study suggests upper limits for quality measures by analysing year-on-year variations in traffic volumes that result from changing land use and infrastructure.     

Short-term planning and policy interventions to promote cycling in urban centers: Findings from a commute mode choice analysis in Barcelona,Spain

BackgroundCycling for transportation has become an increasingly important component of strategies to address public health, climate change, and air quality concerns in urban centers. Within this context, planners and policy makers would benefit from an improved understanding of available interventions and their relative effectiveness for cycling promotion. We examined predictors of bicycle commuting that are relevant to planning and policy intervention, particularly those amenable to short- and medium-term action.MethodsWe estimated a travel mode choice model using data from a survey of 765 commuters who live and work within the municipality of Barcelona. We considered how the decision to commute by bicycle was associated with cycling infrastructure, bike share availability, travel demand incentives, and other environmental attributes (e.g., public transport availability). Self-reported and objective (GIS-based) measures were compared. Point elasticities and marginal effects were calculated to assess the relative explanatory power of the independent variables considered.ResultsWhile both self-reported and objective measures of access to cycling infrastructure were associated with bicycle commuting, self-reported measures had stronger associations. Bicycle commuting had positive associations with access to bike share stations but inverse associations with access to public transport stops. Point elasticities suggested that bicycle commuting has a mild negative correlation with public transport availability (−0.136), bike share availability is more important at the work location (0.077) than at home (0.034), and bicycle lane presence has a relatively small association with bicycle commuting (0.039). Marginal effects suggested that provision of an employer-based incentive not to commute by private vehicle would be associated with an 11.3% decrease in the probability of commuting by bicycle, likely reflecting the typical emphasis of such incentives on public transport.ConclusionsThe results provide evidence of modal competition between cycling and public transport, through the presence of public transport stops and the provision of public transport-oriented travel demand incentives. Education and awareness campaigns that influence perceptions of cycling infrastructure availability, travel demand incentives that encourage cycling, and policies that integrate public transport and cycling may be promising and cost-effective strategies to promote cycling in the short to medium term.     

Leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory to build climate resilience in transport infrastructure

ABSTRACT

Anthropogenic climate change poses risks to transport infrastructure that include disrupted operations, reduced lifespan and increased reconstruction and maintenance costs. Efforts to decrease the vulnerability of transport networks have been largely limited to understanding projected risks through governance and administrative efforts. Where physical adaptation measures have been implemented, these have typically aligned with a traditional “engineering resilience” approach of increasing the strength and rigidity of assets to withstand the impacts of climate change and maintain a stable operating state. Such systems have limited agility and are susceptible to failure from “surprise events”. Addressing these limitations, this paper considers an alternate approach to resilience, inspired by natural ecosystems that sense conditions in real-time, embrace multi-functionality and evolve in response to changing environmental conditions. Such systems embrace and thrive on unpredictability and instability. This paper synthesises key literature in climate adaptation and socio-ecological resilience theory to propose a shift in paradigm for transport infrastructure design, construction and operation, towards engineered systems that can transform, evolve and internally manage vulnerability. The authors discuss the opportunity for biomimicry (innovation inspired by nature) as an enabling discipline for supporting resilient and regenerative infrastructure, introducing three potential tools and frameworks. The authors conclude the importance of leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory, building on the achievements in engineering resilience over the past century. These findings have immediate practical applications in redefining resilience approaches for new transport infrastructure projects and transport infrastructure renewal.     

Flexible strategic planning of transport systems

Abstract

This paper presents a decision support methodology for long-range planning of transport systems that exhibits strategic flexibility and stochastic system parameters. Unlike one-off strategic decisions, flexible decisions should be dynamically reformulated with time. The proposed methodology is based on the construction of a tree structure of multiple interlinked tactical planning problems, each associated with a scenario in the tree, where problems under scenarios at intermediate dates incorporate in their formulation the solution of the corresponding problems associated with past (future) connected scenarios. The resulting tree structure of interconnected planning decisions becomes a strategic-tactical decision support system that allows managers to formulate suitable flexible strategic decisions that mitigate the consequences associated with downside scenarios while taking advantage of the upside opportunities. The methodology is applied to the planning of a fleet deployment through charter contracts where contract prices depend on both market behavior and the duration of the contract itself.     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

A fuzzy-stochastic optimization model for the intermodal fleet management problem of an international transportation company

ABSTRACT

In this paper, a fuzzy-stochastic optimization model is developed for an intermodal fleet management system of a large international transportation company. The proposed model integrates various strategic, tactical and operational level decisions simultaneously. Since real-life fleet planning problems may involve different types of uncertainty jointly such as randomness and fuzziness, a hybrid chance-constrained programming and fuzzy interactive resolution-based approach is employed. Therefore, stochastic import/export freight demand and fuzzy transit times, truck/trailer availabilities, the transport capacity of Ro-Ro vessels, bounds on block train services, etc. can also be taken into account concurrently. In addition to minimize overall transportation costs, optimization of total transit times and CO₂ emission values are also incorporated in order to provide sustainable fleet plans by maximizing customer satisfaction and environmental considerations. Computational results show that effective and efficient fleet plans can be produced by making use of the proposed optimization model.     

Impact of public transport and non-motorized transport infrastructure on travel mode shares,energy, emissions and safety: Case of Indian cities

Current modal share in Indian cities is in favor of non-motorized transport (NMT) and public transport (PT), however historical trends shows decline in its use. Existing NMT and PT infrastructure in Indian cities is of poor quality resulting in increasing risk from road traffic crashes to these users. It is therefore likely that the current NMT and PT users will shift to personal motorized vehicles (PMV) as and when they can afford it. Share of NMT and PT users can be retained and possibly increased if safe and convenient facilities for them are created. This shall also have impact on reducing environment impacts of transport system.We have studied travel behavior of three medium size cities – Udaipur, Rajkot and Vishakhapatnam. Later the impact of improving built environment and infrastructure on travel mode shares, fuel consumption, emission levels and traffic safety in Rajkot and Vishakhapatnam are analyzed. For the purpose three scenarios are developed – improving only NMT infrastructure, improving only bus infrastructure and improving both NMT and bus infrastructure.The study shows the strong role of NMT infrastructure in both cities despite geographical dissimilarities. The scenario analysis shows maximum reduction in CO₂ emissions is achieved when both PT and NMT infrastructure are improved. Improvement in safety indicator is highest in this scenario. Improving only PT infrastructure may have marginal effect on overall reduction of CO₂ emissions and adverse effects on traffic safety. NMT infrastructure is crucial for maintaining the travel mode shares in favor of PT and NMT in future.     

A medium term transport research strategy for the EEC

Abstract

Part 1 elicited major research issues and opportunities in the transport sector in the EEC from an examination of a range of planning scenarios. This article relates those issues and opportunities to the needs of the EEC transport sector policy formation and derives a set of research recommendations. The respective roles of the EEC and other institutions in developing and meeting the research needs are then discussed, concluding with some institutional proposals for the strengthening of the organization of the strategic research effort of the EEC in the transport sector.     

Simulating Demand-responsive Transportation: A Review of Agent-based Approaches

Abstract

In light of the need to make better use of existing transport infrastructure, demand-responsive transportation (DRT) systems are gaining traction internationally. However, many systems fail due to poor implementation, planning, and marketing. Being able to realistically simulate a system to evaluate its viability before implementation is important. This review investigates the application of agent-based simulation for studying DRT. We identify that existing simulations are strongly focused on the optimisation of trips, usually in favour of the operator, and rarely consider individual preferences and needs. Agent-based simulations, however, permit incorporation of the latter, as well as capture the interactions between operators and customers. Several areas of future research are identified in order to unify future research efforts.     

Accessibility and transport infrastructure improvement assessment: The role of borders and multilateral resistance

The market potential indicator is a commonly used tool in transport planning for evaluating the potential economic effects derived from improvements in transport infrastructures. The general assumption is that exports from a given region will rise with increased accessibility, thus benefiting economic activities. However, the specification of the market potential model is typically very simple and ignores both the impact of competing rivals and the role of international borders, which leads to unrealistic results. Spatial interaction models on bilateral trade have already proved that international trade is affected by multilateral resistance, borders, adjacency, language or currency. Nevertheless, apart from some recent analyses that simply calibrate the distance decay parameter from trade datasets, these variables have hardly been integrated into research on market potential. This paper sets out to demonstrate that more realistic results are obtained by calibrating the distance-decay parameter and introducing the impact of competing rivals and border effects into the market potential formulation. The proposed model is then applied to the assessment of the accessibility impacts of new road transport infrastructure in the European Union between 2001 and 2012, which shows that the greatest improvements in accessibility were experienced by peripheral countries with high road infrastructure investment.     

Impacts of Transport Infrastructure on Productivity and Economic Growth: Recent Advances and Research Challenges

ABSTRACT

The paper provides an update of the survey focusing on estimating the contribution of transport infrastructure to productivity and economic growth. The central questions addressed are possible reasons behind the conflicting results reported in the literature on the elasticity of economic output with respect to transport infrastructure investment. After providing a systematic review of recent empirical studies on the effects of transport infrastructure on productivity and economic growth, the paper notes that controversial results can be attributed to ten causes (grouped into three categories for distinguishing): (1) related to different contexts: research period, geographical scales, and country's capability in enabling economic development; (2) related to different phenomena that are being measured: different economic sectors, different types of transport infrastructure, and different quality levels of transport infrastructure; and (3) related to distinct ways of measuring a similar phenomenon: measures used to describe the dependent variable and explanatory variable, functional specification, and estimation method of the econometric model. Strong network externalities of transport infrastructure may result in nonlinearity of the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth. Moreover, the absence of spatial concerns in infrastructure's impacts is another important source of inconclusive results. Finally, building on recent literature, the paper has discussed policy implications and identified several research avenues for further research.     

Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA

Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO₂ emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO₂ emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO₂ transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term - incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) - to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives.The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO₂ aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ (Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures.     

Time-based life-cycle assessment for environmental policymaking: Greenhouse gas reduction goals and public transit

As decision-makers increasingly embrace life-cycle assessment (LCA) and target transportation services for regional environmental goals, it becomes imperative that outcomes from changes to transportation infrastructure systems are accurately estimated. Greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policies have created interest in better understanding how public transit systems reduce emissions. Yet the use of average emission factors (e.g., grams CO₂e per distance traveled) persists as the state-of-the-art masking the variations in emissions across time, and confounding the ability to accurately estimate the environmental effects from changes to transit infrastructure and travel behavior. An LCA is developed of the Expo light rail line and a competing car trip (in Los Angeles, California) that includes vehicle, infrastructure, and energy production processes, in addition to propulsion. When results are normalized per passenger kilometer traveled (PKT), life-cycle processes increase energy use and GHG emissions up to 83%, and up to 690% for smog and respiratory impact potentials. However, the use of a time-independent PKT normalization obfuscates a decision-maker’s ability to understand whether the deployment of a transit system reduces emissions below a future year policy target (e.g., 80% of 1990 emissions by 2050). The year-by-year marginal effects of the decision to deploy the Expo line are developed including reductions in automobile travel. The time-based marginal results provide clearer explanations for how environmental effects in a region change and the critical life-cycle processes that should be targeted to achieve policy targets. It shows when environmental impacts payback and how much reduction is achieved by a policy-specified future year.     

A survey of Hungarian transport policy

Abstract

In its introductory part this article discusses the principles of the transport policy approved in 1968, followed by the reasons behind the advances on this policy approved in 1978.

It then goes on to review the Hungarian transport pattern and organization, including the roles played by the railways, the road transport companies, the state‐owned enterprises as well as cooperatives, urban transport, shipping, air transport, pipelines, and private transport.

In discussing the division of labour (or market sharing) in transport it concludes that passenger transport is increasing slowly, while the proportion of private transport is continuing to rise. A moderate increase is expected in goods transport with a decline in the share of the railways and a rise in that of the other transport branches. This division of labour is being influenced by economic, not administrative, means.

The main target of the advanced transport policy is to shape a transport system which corresponds to socioeconomic requirements. This means that goods transport capacities must be put to more efficient use, which involves improving development, organizational and planning operations. In passenger transport priority must go to public transport while the proportion of private transport must be defined in keeping with demand and economic possibilities.

In the development of the infrastructure and investments, the need to improve energy use and protect the environment must be stressed.

The rest of the article presents the detailed reasoning behind the measures already taken and scheduled to be taken to achieve these main targets.     

Transport policy for London in 2001 The case for an integrated approach

The paper reports the results of a series of studies conducted to enable the London Planning Advisory Committee to provide advice on strategic transport policy for London. The analytical approach combined the use of an area-based, multi-modal strategic model (LAM) and professional judgment. The performance of LAM as a basis for providing rapid advice on complex issues in transport policy is assessed.The resulting policy advice advocated a coherent approach, involving new infrastructure, particularly for rail; improved management of the road and public transport networks; the use of subsidy to enhance public transport service levels; and road user charges to reduce the impact of private vehicles on congestion and the environment. Road user charges emerged as the pivotal issue in the policy; the paper discusses their role, and the questions which still need to be resolved before they can be implemented.The main message of the study is that no one element of transport policy can tackle London's problems alone; an integrated policy in which infrastructure provision, management and pricing are used to complement one another is shown to be far more effective.     

Applications of Random-Utility-based Multi-region Input–Output Models of Transport and the Spatial Economy

Abstract

An introduction to random-utility-based multiregional input–output models used for the purpose of spatial economic and transport interaction modelling is provided. The main methodological developments and important results of a dozen applications from the years 1996–2013 are described. This is followed by an outlook of potential future directions. Further research is mainly needed in five areas: (a) overall validation of the method, perhaps through back-casting applications on infrastructure plans with observed trade impacts; (b) extensions of trade coefficient models to add realism and improve accuracy; (c) the use of multi-scale modelling to capture interdependencies between geographical scales and to improve the representation of exports and imports; (d) improvements in the representation of price effects, as well as innovation and technological progress, by way of variable technical coefficients; and (e) a deeper investigation of the algorithm used to include elastic selling prices.