Impact of Everyday Weather on Individual Daily Travel Behaviours in Perspective: A Literature Review

Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on infrastructure development -- from roads, rail and airports to energy extraction and power networks to the Internet -- surprisingly little reliable knowledge exists about the performance of these investments in terms of actual costs, benefits and risks. This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost performance in transport infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 258 projects in 20 nations worth approximately US$90 billion (constant 1995 prices). The paper shows with overwhelming statistical significance that in terms of costs transport infrastructure projects do not perform as promised. The conclusion is tested for different project types, different geographical regions and different historical periods. Substantial cost escalation is the rule rather than the exception. For rail, average cost escalation is 45% (SD=38), for fixed links (tunnels and bridges) it is 34% (62) and for roads 20% (30). Cost escalation appears a global phenomenon, existing across 20 nations on five continents. Cost estimates have not improved and cost escalation not decreased over the past 70 years. Cost estimates used in decision-making for transport infrastructure development are highly, systematically and significantly misleading. Large cost escalations combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial risks. However, such risks are typically ignored or underplayed in decision-making, to the detriment of social and economic welfare.     

Mitigating environmental impacts in advance: Evidence of cost and time savings for transportation projects

The traditional model for mitigating a transportation project’s environmental impacts typically operates project-by-project and delivers the mitigation just-in-time. In contrast, the newer practice of advance mitigation comprehensively assesses and mitigates impacts from one or multiple transportation projects before or during project planning, sometimes long before project construction begins. The practice has gained adherents for its potential to improve ecological outcomes, by better aligning mitigation and conservation goals. Advance mitigation also stands to reduce mitigation costs, an important secondary benefit for transportation agencies with constrained resources. Evidence of cost savings, however, has been piecemeal and anecdotal. This paper advances knowledge of advance mitigation’s financial impacts in two ways. First, it critically assesses the evidence about cost savings realized through advance mitigation, both through avoided up-front costs and reduced project delay. Second, it directly estimates the project time savings that might accrue with advance mitigation of state highway projects in California. Overall, the balance of evidence is encouraging for transportation agencies that would introduce the practice, and general agreement exists on its financial benefits. Considering project delays related only to the environmental process, we estimate advance mitigation could reduce delivery times by 1.3–5.0 months per project. Still, we also identify factors limiting comprehensive analysis. Transportation agencies adopting advance mitigation practices into their operations could use a pilot approach that includes rigorous environmental and mitigation cost accounting; such pilots would build needed empirical evidence of advance mitigation’s financial and ecological outcomes.     

Resolving the property right of transportation emissions through public–private partnerships

The application of public–private partnerships (P3’s) in the transportation sector has grown in popularity worldwide. Despite this important shift in the provision of transportation service, there are clear gaps in knowledge about the impacts of P3 projects, especially on emissions from transportation systems as a whole. Not only should policy makers evaluate the emissions impacts from P3 projects, but they should also think about innovative models that address or charge for emissions into P3 contracts. This addition to P3 contracts could provide a new solution to the long-existing property right paradox: who owns (is responsible for) emissions from transportation systems? This study attempts to fill the research gap by analyzing these innovative models. Using the road network of Fresno, California, as our case study, we offer a number of interesting insights for policy makers. First, average peak emissions costs range from 1.37 cents per mile (the do-nothing case) to 1.20 cents per mile (profit-maximizing cases) per vehicle. Although emissions costs from the P3 projects are lowest for the profit-maximizing cases, the system-wide emissions costs of these cases are highest because of spillover effects. Second, charging project owners for the emissions costs of P3 projects is not an effective way to reduce emissions or the total costs of travel, especially on a VMT basis. Instead, the public sector should implement emissions-included social cost-based price ceilings. When employing these limits, project owners could still be charged for the emissions costs. Finally, using total travel time as the only objective function for evaluating P3 projects can be misleading. Several P3 projects have shown better outcomes using total travel cost with the inclusion of emissions and fuel consumption costs, instead of using total travel time as the only objective function.     

公路水运世行贷款项目前期工作实施建议

文章介绍了世行贷款项目的工作程序,以公路水运世行贷款项目为研究对象,指出了项目前期工作的重点、难点及其重要性,提出了如何做好世行贷款项目前期工作的具体措施。     

Cost-effectiveness of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from High-Speed Rail and urban transportation projects in California

A rising trend in state and federal transportation finance is to invest capital dollars into projects which reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, a key metric for comparing projects, the cost-effectiveness of GHG emissions reductions, is highly dependent on the cost-benefit methodology employed in the analysis. Our analysis comparing California High-Speed Rail and three urban transportation projects shows how four different accounting framings bring wide variations in cost per metric tonne of GHG emissions reduced. In our analysis, life-cycle GHG emissions are joined with full cost accounting to better understand the benefits of cap-and-trade investments. Considering only public subsidy for capital, none of the projects appear to be a cost-effective means to reduce GHG emissions (i.e., relative to the current price of GHG emissions in California’s cap-and-trade program at $12.21 per tonne). However, after adjusting for the change in private costs users incur when switching from the counterfactual mode (automobile or aircraft) to the mode enabled by the project, all investments appear to reduce GHG emissions at a net savings to the public. Policy and decision-makers who consider only the capital cost of new transportation projects can be expected to incorrectly assess alternatives and indirect benefits (i.e., how travelers adapt to the new mass transit alternative) should be included in decision-making processes.     

Evaluation,prioritization and selection of transportation investment projects in New York City

Over the last decade, a large number of high capital cost transportation projects have been proposed for the New York City Region. Many have resulted from addressing evolving capacity needs, changes in regional demographics and economics, meeting the improvements necessitated by operating century old subway systems and recognizing the impact of moving freight in a dense region. But the catalyst for bringing all of these projects to the attention of the public and all regional agencies was the tragedy of September 11, 2001. While these projects entail massive investments ($50–$60 billion), little analytical work has been carried out to measure the transportation and economic costs and benefits they entail and to categorize them accordingly. Competition among agencies to secure adequate resources to implement any of the desired projects makes such analysis necessary; yet there still remain political, vested economic interests and agency rivalry barriers to achieving this important planning objective. This paper reports the methodological approach taken by these authors for consistent and transparent project evaluation and then presents results from the ranking and prioritizing methodology. The policy underpinnings and implications of the analysis are discussed in a subsequent paper and thus only briefly touched upon here in the concluding section.     

Solutions to the optimal network design problem with shipments related to transportation cost

Two versions of an optimal network design problem with shipments proportional to transportation costs are formulated. Extensions of an algorithm developed in prior research for solving these problems are proposed and tested. The performance of the algorithms is found to improve substantially as the dependence of shipments on costs is increased. Moreover, the optimal solutions obtained are unexpectedly robust with respect to a wide range of transportation cost assumptions. These findings could have important computational and policy implications if applicable to larger networks.     

Analysis of cost estimation disclosure in environmental impact statements for surface transportation projects

Reliability in cost estimates in publicly funded projects is more important today than ever with increased governmental funding to infrastructure projects and associated accountability requirements, but surface transportation projects, large and small, in the United States have a legacy of cost overruns. The problems with these overruns start with the cost estimation process before projects begin. Studies have shown that early cost estimations reflect best-case scenarios rather than realistic expectations, and have attributed technical, economic, psychological, and political reasons for underestimation. The primary objectives of this research were to determine how costs have been presented and updated in environmental impact statements, to identify endemic technical problems with cost estimation during the environmental review of surface transportation projects, and to develop recommendations for improving cost estimation and disclosure. Cost estimation methods were analyzed from the documents of 100 projects, including draft environmental impact statements, final environmental impact statements, and records of decision. The study concluded that the lack of guidance on how to include cost estimation in environmental review revealed itself in the level of detail and attention given to estimating costs. Agencies omitted or included various aspects of cost estimation randomly. Professional organizations should fill the gap of the need for specific guidance to cost estimation for environmental review so it can evolve as a state of the practice.     

Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation

Understanding the cause of cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects has been a topic that has received considerable attention from academics and the popular press. Despite studies providing the essential building blocks and frameworks for cost overrun mitigation and containment, the problem still remains a pervasive issue for Governments worldwide. The interdependency that exists between ‘causes’ that lead to cost overruns materialising have largely been ignored when considering the likelihood and impact of their occurrence. The vast majority of the cost overrun literature has tended to adopt a deterministic approach in examining the occurrence of the phenomenon; in this paper a shift towards the adoption of pluralistic probabilistic approach to cost overrun causation is proposed. The establishment of probabilistic theory incorporates the ability to consider the interdependencies of causes so to provide Governments with a holistic understanding of the uncertainties and risks that may derail the delivery and increase the cost of transportation infrastructure projects. This will further assist in the design of effective mitigation and containment strategies that will ensure future transportation infrastructure projects meet their expected costs as well as the need of taxpayers.     

Scheduling highway work zones with genetic algorithm considering the impact of traffic diversion

Highway work zones caused excessive delay to road users. To reduce user and maintenance costs, work zones shall be designed and scheduled accordingly. An analytical model is developed to jointly optimize work zone lengths and schedule as well as diverted traffic volume for highway maintenance projects, considering time‐varying demand, variable maintenance cost, and various production rates of maintenance crew. With a genetic algorithm, an iterative procedure is developed to search for the optimal solution. A numerical example is illustrated, in which various traffic mitigation plans for a highway maintenance project are evaluated. A sensitivity analysis is conducted, and results indicate the threshold volumes for various conditions (e.g., maintenance crews and capacity of the work zone) at which diverting traffic is desirable. This study demonstrates an effective approach to search for the optimal work zone schedule, which is also applicable to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic diversion plans for a pre‐planned work zone schedule. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-objective bilevel construction material transportation scheduling in large-scale construction projects under a fuzzy random environment

Abstract

This paper investigates a transportation scheduling problem in large-scale construction projects under a fuzzy random environment. The problem is formulated as a fuzzy, random multi-objective bilevel optimization model where the construction company decides the transportation quantities from every source to every destination according to the criterion of minimizing total transportation cost and transportation time on the upper level, while the transportation agencies choose their transportation routes such that the total travel cost is minimized on the lower level. Specifically, we model both travel time and travel cost as triangular fuzzy random variables. Then the multi-objective bilevel adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the model. Finally, a case study of transportation scheduling for the Shuibuya Hydropower Project in China is used as a real world example to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the optimization model and algorithm.     

Design and evaluation of an integrated inventory and transportation system

This paper proposes the adoption of an integrated inventory and transportation system (IITS) to minimize the total costs of inventory and transportation. A non-linear programing is developed by analyzing transportation and inventory costs with one supplier and many retailers in the distribution environment. The paper compares the proposed model with the traditional approach in computing total costs with numerical data. The results indicate that the total costs can be optimized by adopting integrated programing rather than the traditional approach, along with achieving improved customer service levels. In particular, sensitivity analysis is applied to determine the performance of the IITS under various transportation costs, holding costs and shortage costs. It shows that the transportation cost per unit is most sensitive in the proposed model. In this situation, the IITS is more effective for cost saving when set-up cost, holding and shortage costs are high, but is less effective for situations involving high per-unit transportation costs.     

Quality of institutions and private participation in transport infrastructure investment: Evidence from developing countries

In recent decades, owing to a series of public debt crises and constraints on government expenditure, infrastructure investment has dropped significantly in both developed and developing countries. To counterbalance this trend, Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) schemes have been increasingly adopted. In this paper, we explore the determinants of the degree of private participation in transport infrastructure projects in a large sample of developing countries. By using a large sample of transport projects included in the World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Projects database, we document that greater participation by private parties in PPP contracts is associated with better institutions in terms of lower corruption, civil freedom, and a better regulatory framework.     

Marginal costs of freeway traffic congestion with on-road pollution exposure externality

The health cost of on-road air pollution exposure is a component of traffic marginal costs that has not previously been assessed. The main objective of this paper is to introduce on-road pollution exposure as an externality of traffic, particularly important during traffic congestion when on-road pollution exposure is highest. Marginal private and external cost equations are developed that include on-road pollution exposure in addition to time, fuel, and pollution emissions components. The marginal external cost of on-road exposure includes terms for the marginal vehicle’s emissions, the increased emissions from all vehicles caused by additional congestion from the marginal vehicle, and the additional exposure duration for all travelers caused by additional congestion from the marginal vehicle. A sensitivity analysis shows that on-road pollution exposure can be a large portion (18%) of marginal social costs of traffic flow near freeway capacity, ranging from 4% to 38% with different exposure parameters. In an optimal pricing scenario, excluding the on-road exposure externality can lead to 6% residual welfare loss because of sub-optimal tolls. While regional pollution generates greater costs in uncongested conditions, on-road exposure comes to dominate health costs on congested freeways because of increased duration and intensity of exposure. The estimated marginal cost and benefit curves indicate a theoretical preference for price controls to address the externality problem. The inclusion of on-road exposure costs reduces the magnitudes of projects required to cover implementation costs for intelligent transportation system (ITS) improvements; the net benefits of road-pricing ITS systems are increased more than the net benefits of ITS traffic flow improvements. When considering distinct vehicle classes, inclusion of on-road exposure costs greatly increases heavy-duty vehicle marginal costs because of their higher emissions rates and greater roadway capacity utilization. Lastly, there are large uncertainties associated with the parameters utilized in the estimation of health outcomes that are a function of travel pollution intensity and duration. More research is needed to develop on-road exposure modeling tools that link repeated short-duration exposure and health outcomes.     

External Costs of Domestic Container Transportation: Short‐Sea Shipping versus Trucking in Taiwan

Abstract

This paper explores the external costs of domestic container transportation in Taiwan by analysing the origin and destination of current container cargoes. After reviewing an extensive literature survey of methods of external cost, a comparison of external costs between trucking and short sea shipping (SSS) by corridor is made by using a model developed in this paper. Based on the findings that external costs of SSS are considerably lower than truck transport and can be a viable alternative to current domestic container cargo transportation, we discuss the significance and managerial implications of SSS from the perspective of green logistics. In so doing, a top‐down approach is employed for developing government policies, which aim to not only reduce the external costs of domestic container transportation but also promote SSS in Taiwan.     

Environmental considerations of land transport in developing countries (part 2)

Developing countries have unique problems and needs which must be considered when attempting to identify and evaluate the environmental impacts of land transport. This paper presents a review of the relevant literature that can be used to identify, evaluate and mitigate environmental impacts of land transport facilities (development and operation) in developing countries. After examining the relevant characteristics of land transport development in such countries, the paper discusses the environmental effects. Controls and countermeasures associated with each category of impacts are also reviewed under the broad categories of air, noise and water pollution as well as land use changes and social and ecological impacts. Issues concerning environmental impact assessment/analysis process and transport of hazardous materials are then addressed. The procedures established by the World Bank for the environmental assessment of Bank‐financed projects are mentioned. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the responsibilities of the developing countries in meeting the growing challenge of environmental degradation.     

A cost performance analysis of transport infrastructure construction in Slovenia

Due to limited data availability only a few studies have been able to provide statistically significant evidence on cost overruns in transport infrastructure investments and their systematic nature, and fewer still for road infrastructure investments. The body of available evidence refers to the most economically developed countries, while very little evidence was found regarding other countries. In this article the authors focus on cost performance of road infrastructure constructed through the National Motorway Construction Programme in Slovenia. Methodologically the study departs from other studies in this field by building on detailed expenditure data and not aggregate reports from the relevant institution. This enabled the analysis of four individual project cost categories (construction cost, land acquisition damages and others) and comparably more accurate results. A representative sample of randomly selected completed projects in the period 1995–2007 revealed that the cost overruns (19%; SD = 46.10%) in the entire period studied do not appear to be higher than in other comparable studies. At the same time the study results showed that cost overruns were unstable, i.e. much higher for older projects.     

Distribution of vehicle operating costs/benefits to a rural population

Assessment of economic benefits resulting from the provision of transportation projects are standard practice. However, the procedures seldom consider detailed distribution of benefits amongst the study area population. Distribution of vehicle operating cost benefits to rural population is presented for a road sealing project.     

Efficiency of European Funds in the Accession Countries: The Case of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Latvia

ABSTRACT

A transport initiative, like any kind of public action, has an impact on the monetary cost, time cost, efficiency and comfort of the transportation of goods and people, in particular transport infrastructure investments. All such initiatives are subject to cost benefit analyses at the national and EU level to know whether the present value of total net benefits including environmental impacts exceeds their cost. However, several important policy issues remain unresolved in standard evaluation procedures. One issue is whether the so-called direct measurement of user benefit, which consists of quantifying changes in surplus of the users of the transport system, captures all welfare generated in the economy. Another issue is how the gains (or possibly losses) of a transport initiative are distributed among regions. The aim of this article is to perform a systematic and quantitative analysis of the socio-economic and spatial impacts of alternative transport investments by carrying out scenario simulations in order to improve the understanding of the impact of transportation policies on the short- and long-term spatial development in Latvia. The general result from the scenario simulations is that rail projects seem to be more effective in terms of promoting regional economic activity than road projects.     

Cost escalations in the front-end of projects – empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects

This paper investigates an issue largely ignored in the transport literature on cost overruns, namely, cost increases in the early project phase, long before the decision to build is made. This is the phase of project planning that is referred to as the front-end phase in the literature. The rationale of the study is that unless cost estimates during the front-end phase are relatively accurate, the wrong projects may be selected for further development. We first argue for why it is important to address cost escalation during the front-end phase of project planning. We then use Norwegian data to demonstrate the magnitude of cost escalations during the front-end phase of projects and in comparison to the implementation phase. We find that even in a sample of projects with relatively small cost overruns as in the case of Norway, there are substantial cost increases before the formal decision to build was made. This raises the issue of whether decisions and priorities taken at the early stages of project development are based on false information and whether this may lead to the wrong project concepts being selected.