Road pricing: A solution for Hong Kong?

The Government of the Territory of Hong Kong is the first in the world to propose a system of charging motorists directly for the use of congested roads. Hong Kong has more registered motor vehicles per unit length of road than any other country and the road system is physically separate from China. Despite the scheme's technical proficiency and ability to earn revenue well in excess of operating costs, there is doubt about equity and efficiency. In the end, traffic conditions were not seen to be sufficiently bad so the scheme's introduction has been postponed.     

Road pricing: The right solution for the right problem?

Road-pricing theory asserts that the optimal speed of a road network is that where vehicles pay the marginal social cost of their journey, rather than an average private cost if no price is imposed. This paper aims to show that this is misconceived. In big congested cities, the running speed of the road network is set by the direct journey speed achieved on the appropriate mass-transit network, both within and to the city centre. After dividing by the appropriate route factors to convert running speed to direct speed and allowing for access to convert kerb-to-kerb to door-to-door speed, the average direct journey speeds by car are identical to those on the mass-transit system for equivalent journeys when there is suppressed demand for car travel. Road pricing should thus be seen, not as a tool for increasing road speeds, which it cannot do whilst sufficient suppressed demand exists, but as a tool for estimating the socially desirable demand level on the roads as opposed to on the mass-transit systems. Road speeds in big, congested cities can only be increased by increasing the direct speeds of the mass-transit systems. Methods of achieving such increases are discussed.     

Do Road Planners Produce More ‘Honest Numbers’ than Rail Planners? An Analysis of Accuracy in Road‐traffic Forecasts in Cities versus Peripheral Regions

Abstract

Based on a review of available data from a database on large‐scale transport infrastructure projects, this paper investigates the hypothesis that traffic forecasts for road links in Europe are geographically biased with underestimated traffic volumes in metropolitan areas and overestimated traffic volumes in remote regions. The present data do not support this hypothesis. Since previous studies have shown a strong tendency to overestimated forecasts of the number of passengers on new rail projects, it could be speculated that road planners are more skilful and/or honest than rail planners. However, during the period when the investigated projects were planned (up to the late 1980s), there were hardly any strong incentives for road planners to make biased forecasts in order to place their projects in a more flattering light. Future research might uncover whether the change from the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm to ‘predict and prevent’ occurring in some European countries in the 1990s has influenced the accuracy of road traffic forecasts in metropolitan areas.     

A Framework for Developing Driving Cycles with On‐Road Driving Data

Abstract

This paper attempts to propose a framework on driving cycle development based on a thorough review of 101 transient driving cycles. A comparison of the driving cycles highlighted that Asian driving is the slowest but most aggressive while European driving is the fastest and smoothest. Further review of the cycle development methodologies identified three major elements for developing a driving cycle; test route selection, data collection and cycle construction methods. A framework was eventually proposed based on these findings and recommendations from this review. First, traffic activity patterns and quantitative statistics should be considered in determining the test routes. Speed data can be collected by using chase car method, on‐board measurement techniques or their hybrid. As for the construction of driving cycle, the matching approach has been more commonly used. It is recommended that the tendency of zero change in acceleration, which has been commonly ignored in the literature, and the application of succession probability at second‐by‐second level should be further explored. A fifth mode, creeping, is also recommended for modal analysis for characterizing urban congested driving conditions.     

The Value of a Statistical Life in a Road Safety Context — A Review of the Current Literature

Abstract

This paper summarizes the state-of-the-art for assessing the value of a statistical life (VSL) as a component of the costs of road accidents. It focuses on the most popular approaches for assessing the VSL, with respect to its theoretical foundations, current state-of-research and empirical evidence. Our paper also provides a first (to our knowledge) compendium of results for the VSL based on Stated Choice (SC) methods. Among the analysed alternatives, the willingness-to-pay (WTP) appears to be the leading approach for assessing the VSL and the SC methods represent the current state-of-the-art for determining the WTP for non-market goods. We conclude that the SC approach overcomes some of the most important shortcomings of the alternative approaches and offers a significant flexibility that can be used to address its own limitations. We also identify a significant need for research, as a gap between the methods employed in research (SC methods) and the state-of-the-practice (other methods) has emerged.     

Competitiveness prioritisation of container ports in Asia under the background of China’s Belt and Road initiative

ABSTRACT

The understanding of the competitiveness of different ports under the background of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) is critical for drafting appropriate plans and taking suitable actions to select the best port in the logistics supply chains. A novel Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) was proposed for the evaluation of port competitiveness. In the developed MADA method, the interval Analytic Hierarchy Process and the projection method was combined for the evaluation of port competitiveness. Three container ports in Asia including Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore were studied under the background of China’s BRI. The results demonstrate that the port of Singapore is the most competitive at the initial stage of China’s BRI, followed by Hong Kong and Shanghai in the descending order. The results were validated by sum weighted method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution method, and sensitivity analysis was also carried out. The competitiveness of the three ports in the next ten years were also studied with the consideration of the influences of China’s BRI, and the results reveal that Shanghai port can even exceed Hong Kong port and Singapore port if it can effectively take the advantage s of China’s BRI.     

Road Safety Trends at National Level in Europe: A Review of Time-series Analysis Performed during the Period 2000–12

Abstract

This paper presents a review of time-series analysis of road safety trends, aggregated at a national level, which has been performed in the period 2000–12 and applied to European national data sets covering long time periods. It provides a guideline and set of best practices in the area of time-series modelling and identifies the latest methods and applications of national road safety trend analysis in Europe. The paper begins with the methodological framework adopted for aggregate time-series modelling that will be considered, and then discusses a number of relevant applications to long-period data aggregated at the national level, whether for countries alone, or for groups of countries. Some analyses, which were performed at the disaggregated level, are also provided, as they are being used more and more. Finally, the paper summarizes and discusses the significant changes in aggregate road safety trend analysis which occurred during the period and provides recommendations for continuing these research efforts.