Alternative fuels for transportation

The alternatives to the oil based fuels for transportation are considered and analysed. These are the synthetic fuels, made from coal, the liquid petroleum gases of propane and butane, compressed natural gas and methanol. The problems associated with the use of electric vehicles are discussed; the main problem being that of range.

The possible use of hydrogen as a fuel is analysed in some detail. Since its supply can be tied directly to nuclear energy sources, rather than hydrocarbon feed stocks, it could be an alternative in the long term. The main problems of the storage of hydrogen on the vehicle and of its propensity to “back‐fire” into the engine intake are discussed. The first can be ameliorated and the second eliminated by dual fuelling; with petrol. It is advocated that the on‐board storage of hydrogen be by the use of hydrides for private cars. However, it is expected that it may be as liquid hydrogen for some forms of transport and will certainly be in this form for aircraft.     

Mainstream consumers driving plug-in battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars: A qualitative analysis of responses and evaluations

Plug-in electric vehicles can potentially emit substantially lower CO₂ emissions than internal combustion engine vehicles, and so have the potential to reduce transport emissions without curtailing personal car use. Assessing the potential uptake of these new categories of vehicles requires an understanding of likely consumer responses. Previous in-depth explorations of appraisals and evaluations of electric vehicles have tended to focus on ‘early adopters’, who may not represent mainstream consumers. This paper reports a qualitative analysis of responses to electric cars, based on semi-structured interviews conducted with 40 UK non-commercial drivers (20 males, 20 females; age 24-70 years) at the end of a seven-day period of using a battery electric car (20 participants) or a plug-in hybrid car (20 participants). Six core categories of response were identified: (1) cost minimisation; (2) vehicle confidence; (3) vehicle adaptation demands; (4) environmental beliefs; (5) impression management; and, underpinning all other categories, (6) the perception of electric cars generally as ‘work in progress’ products. Results highlight potential barriers to the uptake of current-generation (2010) plug-in electric cars by mainstream consumers. These include the prioritization of personal mobility needs over environmental benefits, concerns over the social desirability of electric vehicle use, and the expectation that rapid technological and infrastructural developments will make current models obsolete. Implications for the potential uptake of future electric vehicles are discussed.     

Well-to-wheel costs,primary energy demand,and greenhouse gas emissions for the production and operation of conventional and alternative vehicles

This study provides a comprehensive comparison of well-to-wheel (WTW) energy demand, WTW GHG emissions, and costs for conventional ICE and alternative passenger car powertrains, including full electric, hybrid, and fuel cell powertrains. Vehicle production, operation, maintenance, and disposal are considered, along with a range of hydrogen production processes, electricity mixes, ICE fuels, and battery types. Results are determined based on a reference vehicle, powertrain efficiencies, life cycle inventory data, and cost estimations. Powertrain performance is measured against a gasoline ICE vehicle. Energy carrier and battery production are found to be the largest contributors to WTW energy demand, GHG emissions, and costs; however, electric powertrain performance is highly sensitive to battery specific energy. ICE and full hybrid vehicles using alternative fuels to gasoline, and fuel cell vehicles using natural gas hydrogen production pathways, are the only powertrains which demonstrate reductions in all three evaluation categories simultaneously (i.e., WTW energy demand, emissions, and costs). Overall, however, WTW emission reductions depend more on the energy carrier production pathway than on the powertrain; hence, alternative energy carriers to gasoline for an ICE-based fleet (including hybrids) should be emphasized from a policy perspective in the short-term. This will ease the transition towards a low-emission fleet in Switzerland.     

Combining Intermodal Transport With Electric Vehicles: Towards More Sustainable Solutions

Abstract

This paper analyses the feasibility of incorporating electric or hybrid vehicles in intermodal transport for the transportation of containers in the pre- and post haulage (PPH) operation. In Europe, the intermodal transport market is being strongly supported, as it is seen as one of the keystones of a sustainable mobility system policy. The introduction of environmentally friendly electric/hybrid vehicles for the pre- and post haulage operation would mean a further enhancement leading to a more complete ecological intermodal transport chain. PPH operations are usually no longer than 30 km, and, hence, could possibly be handled by electric or hybrid vehicles.

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) combine electric and other drive systems, such as internal combustion engines, gas turbines and fuel cells. Hybrid electric vehicles merge the zero pollution and high efficiency benefits of electric traction with the high fuel energy density benefits of an energy source or thermal engine. The use of electrically driven vehicles for goods distribution has already been successfully proven in international demonstration projects, such as ELCIDIS. Transport of intermodal units (such as ISO containers), however, requires electric/hybrid heavy-duty goods vehicles, which are not readily available on the market, but for which the technology exists.

Different possibilities are assessed as to their technical, financial, organizational and environmental feasibility and suitability. This analysis is based on a typical mission for pre-and post haulage operations, such as type of trips, distance, frequency, urban/suburban, etc.     

Modeling the effects of congestion on fuel economy for advanced power train vehicles

Fuel-speed curves (FSC) are used to account for the aggregate effects of congestion on fuel consumption in transportation scenario analysis. This paper presents plausible FSC for conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and for advanced vehicles such as hybrid electric vehicles, fully electric vehicles (EVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) using a fuel consumption model with transient driving schedules and a set of 145 hypothetical vehicles. The FSC shapes show that advanced power train vehicles are expected to maintain fuel economy (FE) in congestion better than ICE vehicles, and FE can even improve for EV and FCV in freeway congestion. In order to implement these FSC for long-range scenario modeling, a bounded approach is presented which uses a single congestion sensitivity parameter. The results in this paper will assist analysis of the roles that vehicle technology and congestion mitigation can play in reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.     

Preferences for alternative fuel vehicles by Dutch local governments

Using a choice model, we estimate the preferences for alternative fuel vehicles by Dutch local governments. The analysis shows that local governments are willing to pay between 25% and 50% extra for an alternative fuel vehicle without a serious loss of utility. Further, local emissions are an important criterion on which to base a decision, especially for municipalities and provinces. We also calculate the utility for a number of prominent alternative fuel vehicles. We find that show that local governments value the battery electric vehicle and biogas internal combustion engine equally. It is important, however, that the time to refuel for electric vehicles is reduced to about 30 min.     

Hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles offer low-cost climate benefits in China

Car ownership in China is expected to grow dramatically in the coming decades. If growing personal vehicle demand is met with conventional cars, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions will be substantial. One way to mitigate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from passenger travel is to meet growing demand for cars with alternative vehicles such as hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles (HEVs and BEVs). Our study examines the cost-effectiveness of transitioning from conventional cars to HEVs and BEVs, by calculating their marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon in the long-run. We find that transitioning from conventional to hybrid and battery electric light-duty, four-wheel vehicles can achieve carbon emissions reductions at a negative cost (i.e. at a net benefit) in China. In 2030, the average MAC is estimated to be about −$140/ton CO₂ for HEVs and −$515/ton CO₂-saved for BEVs, varying by key parameters. The total mitigation potential of each vehicle technology is estimated to be 1.38 million tons for HEVs and 0.75 million tons for BEVs.     

The economy of alternative fuels when including the cost of air pollution

In this study, the costs involved in the use of petrol, diesel, natural gas, biogas, and methanol (produced from natural gas and biomass) in cars and heavy trucks are compared. The cost includes fuel cost, extra capital cost for vehicles using alternative fuels, and the environmental cost of VOC, NO_x, particulate and CO₂ emission based on actual 1996 and estimated 2015 emission factors. The costs have been calculated separately for rural, urban and city-centre traffic. A complete macroeconomic assessment of the effect of introducing alternative fuels is not, however, included in the study. The study shows that no alternative fuel can compete with petrol and diesel in rural traffic when the economic valuation of CO₂ emission is taken as current Swedish CO₂ taxes ($200/tonne C). In cities with a natural gas network, natural gas is the fuel with the lowest cost for both cars and heavy trucks, based on 1996 emission factors. Methanol from natural gas and biogas from waste products can also compete with diesel in urban traffic. With predicted improvements in technology and subsequent emission reductions, no alternative fuel can compete with petrol in any of the traffic situations studied by 2015, and only in city-centre traffic will alternative fuels be less costly than diesel in heavy vehicles. Of the biomass-based fuels studied, low-cost biogas from waste products is the most competitive one and is, already at current CO₂ taxes, the fuel with lowest cost for heavy trucks in urban traffic in areas where natural gas networks do not exist. To enable the more widespread use of biomass-based fuels, i.e. using feedstocks such as energy crops or logging residues that are available in larger amounts, the economic valuation of CO₂ emission has to be 2–2.5 times higher than current Swedish CO₂ tax level.     

Are multi-car households better suited for battery electric vehicles? – Driving patterns and economics in Sweden and Germany

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could reduce CO₂ emissions from the transport sector but their limited electric driving range diminishes their utility to users. The effect of the limited driving range can be reduced in multi-car households where users could choose between a BEV and a conventional car for long-distance travel. However, to what extent the driving patterns of different cars in a multi-car household’s suit the characteristics of a BEV needs further analysis. In this paper we analyse the probability of daily driving above a fixed threshold for conventional cars in current Swedish and German car driving data. We find second cars in multi-car households to require less adaptation and to be better suited for BEV adoption compared to first cars in multi-car households as well as to cars in single-car households. Specifically, the share of second cars that could fulfil all their driving is 20 percentage points higher compared to first cars and cars from single-car households. This result is stable against variation of driving range and of the tolerated number of days requiring adaptation. Furthermore, the range needed to cover all driving needs for about 70% of the vehicles is only 220 km for second cars compared to 390 km for the average car. We can further confirm that second cars have higher market viability from a total cost of ownership perspective. Here, the second cars achieve a 10 percentage points higher market share compared to first cars, and to cars in single-car households for Swedish economic conditions, while for Germany the corresponding figure is 2 percentage points. Our results are important for understanding the market viability of current and near-future BEVs.     

How much should gasoline be taxed when electric vehicles conquer the market? An analysis of the mismatch between efficient and existing gasoline taxes under emerging electric mobility

The taxation of gasoline is characterized by large variability across countries and recent research has analyzed existing gasoline tax levels from an economic efficiency point of view focusing on conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Most studies find that existing fuel tax rates do not coincide with economically efficient levels. As long as policymakers do not take action to reduce the resulting efficiency gap, there will be an ongoing welfare loss to the economy. However, the composition of passenger car fleets will probably be subject to fundamental changes in the (near) future due to the emergence of electric mobility. This raises the question of whether the mismatch between current and efficient fuel taxation will persist, shrink, or even exacerbate under emerging electric mobility. This paper aims at answering this question by determining the structure and level of optimal gasoline taxes in the presence of electric vehicles (EVs). First, the optimal (nationwide) gasoline tax is analytically derived employing a general equilibrium approach. It is shown that differences in traffic related marginal external costs among fuel powered cars and EVs affect the corrective Pigouvian component of the optimal gasoline tax while a differential tax treatment influences the fiscal rational of the tax. Second, the model is applied to Germany using differentiated data on e.g. external costs and behavioral responses. Under a wide range of scenarios, the present analyses indicate a strong relationship between optimal gasoline taxes and electric mobility, calling for a downward adjustment of efficient gasoline taxes. The effect is mainly driven by financial incentives for purchasing and using EVs. Since fuel is likely to be undertaxed in many countries, the emergence of electric mobility will therefore close the gap between gasoline taxes in place and economically efficient taxes. On the other side, it will increase the efficiency gap in those countries where gasoline is overtaxed. This also has important implications for policy concerned with environmental objectives. Pushing electric mobility seriously and at the same time taxing gasoline efficiently could actually prevent sufficient CO₂ emission savings. However, at least in the case of Germany, even a downward adjusted optimal gasoline tax under electric mobility is likely to be higher than the current (non-optimal) tax.     

Comparative environmental impacts of electric bikes in China

Electric two-wheelers have become a significant mode of transportation in China in the past decade. Though marketed and publicized by some as zero-emission vehicles, little past research has been done to quantify the environmental impacts of electric two-wheelers in China. This paper quantifies some of the environmental impacts of the production processes and use phase of electric two-wheelers and compares them to the environmental impacts of competing modes, including bicycles, buses, motorcycles and cars. The use phase emissions are quantified geographically with significantly higher emissions in coal rich regions, compared to regions relying more on hydropower. The results show that electric two-wheelers emit several times lower pollution per kilometer than motorcycles and cars, have comparable emission rates to buses and higher emission rates than bicycles. Lead is one pollutant on which electric two-wheelers perform poorly, because of their use of lead acid batteries.     

Predicting market potential and environmental benefits of deploying electric taxis in Nanjing,China

This paper investigates the market potential and environmental benefits of replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the taxi fleet in Nanjing, China. Vehicle trajectory data collected by onboard global positioning system (GPS) units are used to study the travel patterns of taxis. The impacts of charger power, charging infrastructure coverage, and taxi apps on the feasibility of electric taxis are quantified, considering taxi drivers’ recharging behavior and operating activities. It is found that (1) depending on the charger power and coverage, 19% (with AC Level 2 chargers and 20% charger network coverage) to 56% (with DC chargers and 100% charger network coverage) of the ICE vehicles can be replaced by electric taxis without driving pattern changes; (2) by using taxi apps to find nearby passengers and charging stations, drivers could utilize the empty cruising time to charge the battery, which may increase the acceptance of BEVs by up to 82.6% compared to the scenario without taxi apps; and (3) tailpipe emissions in urban areas could be significantly reduced with taxi electrification: a mixed taxi fleet with 46% compressed-natural-gas-powered (CNG) and 54% electricity-powered vehicles can reduce the tailpipe emissions by 48% in comparison with the fleet of 100% CNG taxis.     

Heterogeneous consumer preferences for alternative fuel cars in China

This paper models consumer preferences for alternative fuel cars and conventional, petrol fueled cars in China. It compares discrete choice model specifications where each specification reflects how consumers choose between alternative fuel cars and conventional types of cars. We find that, in China, consumers differentiate between the types of alternative fuel cars and are more likely to consider switching from petrol fuel vehicles to hybrid than to electric cars. Segmentation analysis is used to explore groups of consumers and their likelihood of adopting alternative fuel cars.     

The potential health,financial and environmental impacts of dieselgate in Ireland

ABSTRACT

The transportation sector is the greatest contributor to air pollution. With the booming demand for transportation, reducing the pollution has become one of the main concerns of researchers. EPA emission standards are designed to protect air quality and human health. Diesel Euro 5 NO_x has become a matter of disquiet since it has been found that NO_x emissions are significantly exceeding the standard limit. This paper presents a study to estimate the disparity in real-world NO_x emission levels resulted from all diesel Euro 5 passenger cars (PC) and light commercial vehicles (LCV) that are present in Ireland. NO_x emission levels calculated based on laboratory test results, on-road measurements and the COPERT 4 model were compared. Additionally, NO_x emission levels from the defective Volkswagen models have been calculated to quantify the effect of the Volkswagen scandal on Ireland. Impacts of excess NO_x emissions on health and cost have also been presented.     

Impacts of driving patterns on tank-to-wheel energy use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

We evaluate the implications of a range of driving patterns on the tank-to-wheel energy use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The driving patterns, which reflect short distance, low speed, and congested city driving to long distance, high speed, and uncongested highway driving, are estimated using an approach that involves linked traffic assignment and vehicle motion models. We find substantial variation in tank-to-wheel energy use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles across driving patterns. Tank-to-wheel petroleum energy use on a per kilometer basis is lowest for the city and highest for the highway driving, with the opposite holding for a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle.     

A comparison of technologies for carbon-neutral passenger transport

In this study, the use of energy carriers based on renewable energy sources in battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs), fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) is compared regarding energy efficiency, emission and cost. There is the potential to double the primary energy compared with the current level by utilising vehicles with electric drivetrains. There is also major potential to increase the efficiency of conventional ICEVs. The energy and environmental cost of using a passenger car can be reduced by 50% solely by using improved ICEVs instead of ICEVs with current technical standard. All the studied vehicles with alternative powertrains (HEVs, FCEVs, and BPEVs) would have lower energy and environmental costs than the ICEV. The HEVs, FCEVs and BPEVs have, however, higher costs than the future methanol-fuelled ICEV, if the vehicle cost is added to the energy and environmental costs, even if significant cost reductions for key technologies such as fuel cells, batteries and fuel storages are assumed. The high-energy efficiency and low emissions of these vehicles cannot compensate for the high vehicle cost. The study indicates, however, that energy-efficiency improvements, combined with the use of renewable energy, would reduce the cost of CO₂ reduction by 40% compared with a strategy based on fuel substitution only.     

Developments of CO2-emissions and costs for small electric and combustion engine vehicles in Germany

Electric vehicles have the potential to lower emissions in the mobility sector, but especially high costs might hinder their market development. This paper aims to access environmental and economic impacts and potentials by comparing CO₂-emissions and costs of small vehicles. Considering actual data it is analysed, if and under which conditions electric vehicles are financially competitive for private consumers and under which conditions emissions can be saved. For this, a multiple-stage approach is focusing on (1) emissions during production and operation, (2) private costs and (3) external costs of emissions. A model of total cost of ownership is applied for the analysis of private and external costs.Results show that emissions of electric vehicles exceed emissions of combustion engine vehicles in the production phase, but electric vehicles cause fewer emissions during operation. Total emissions can be saved by electric vehicles even with low annual driving distances (2500–5500 km/a today). Results highly depend on the form of electricity production.Today, private costs of electric vehicles exceed the costs of combustion engine vehicles. Due to cost decreases electric vehicles can gain financial advantages in the future. External costs are high, especially for combustion engine vehicles (up to 15% of private costs), but in none of the considered cases high enough to give electric vehicles a financial advantage today. This picture will change in the future.     

Traffic Sounds and Cycling Safety: The Use of Electronic Devices by Cyclists and the Quietness of Hybrid and Electric Cars

Abstract

The growing popularity of electric devices and the increasing number of hybrid and electric cars have recently raised concerns about the use of auditory signals by vulnerable road users. This paper consolidates current knowledge about the two trends in relation to cycling safety. Both a literature review and a crash data analysis were carried out. Based on a proposed conceptual model, knowledge gaps are identified that need to be addressed for a better understanding of the relation between limitations on auditory information while cycling. Results suggest that the concerns regarding the use of electronic devices while cycling and the advent of hybrid and electric vehicles are justified. Listening to music and conversing on the phone negatively influence cyclists’ auditory perception, self-reported crash risk and cycling performance. With regard to electric cars, a recurring problem is their quietness at low speeds. Implications of these findings in terms of cycling safety are discussed.     

An assessment of UK drivers’ attitudes regarding the forthcoming ban on the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles

The purpose of the study was to predict how drivers of petrol or diesel cars might vote in a ‘Yes/No’ referendum concerning the UK government’s decision to ban from 2040 onwards the sale of all new non-electric vehicles. Five main factors were hypothesised to influence voting intention: a person’s (i) level of environmental concern, (ii) attitude towards electric cars (measured via an Implicit Association Test), (iii) belief about the importance of air pollution, (iv) driving requirements, and (v) reaction to the cost of the ban to the individual (assessed using a contingency valuation approach). The study also examined possible determinants of attitudes to electric vehicles, e.g., whether an individual was a ‘technology enthusiast’, had prior knowledge of and searched for knowledge about electric vehicles, and whether a person had played an online game where the player assumed the identity of an electric car driver. A structural equation model was developed and tested on a sample of 675 UK drivers, none of whom had ever owned or driven an electric car. The results suggested a good fit of the model to the data, except that neither environmental concern nor belief in the importance of clean air affected attitude to electric cars. Also, high levels of environmental concern did not motivate people to search for knowledge about electric vehicles. Social marketing campaigns that will be needed to precede the ban should focus on its health benefits, and not target particular age groups, gender, or whether a participant had children.     

Positive and negative spillover effects from electric car purchase to car use

This study reports the results of two online surveys conducted on buyers of conventional combustion engine cars compared to those of electric vehicles in Norway. The results show that electric cars are generally purchased as additional cars, do not contribute to a decrease in annual mileage if the old car is not substituted, and that electric car buyers use the car more often for their everyday mobility. Psychological determinants derived from the theory of planned behavior and the norm-activation theory show a high correlation between the purchase and use stages. Electric car buyers, have lower scores on many determinants of car use, especially awareness of consequences and close determinants of car use.