Productivity change in transport: a survey

Because of the importance of transport in promoting economic development, there has been a long‐standing interest in the performance of transport industries and in the conditions which are likely to promote productivity growth. Fundamental to any debate on the subject, though, is the need to advance a satisfactory account of production and a way of deciding when productive performance has changed. This paper points out that there are pitfalls in the common practice of using measures such as output per man‐hour as an indicator of productivity and argues that a thorough understanding of the relationships between inputs and outputs can proceed from a knowledge of the economic theory of production.

The paper describes the relevant theoretical concepts and then examines applications of that theory in transport industries. It transpires that there is a growing literature on the subject, demonstrating a worldwide and multimodal interest in developing more rigorous and satisfying ways of measuring and analysing productivity difference. The techniques employed range from the more complex models at the forefront of economic theory, to rudimentary methods which are, at best, capable of testing only the simplest types of hypotheses. Nevertheless, it is argued that these studies have achieved a remarkable degree of success in enhancing analysis.

There can be no doubt that techniques will undergo further developments. However, it is likely that the greatest successes will come about through improvements in data which will permit applications of more complex, but proven techniques of analysis in relatively neglected areas such as road and maritime transport.     

Fuel price changes and their impacts on urban transport – a literature review using bibliometric and content analysis techniques, 1972–2017

ABSTRACT

While the period of heightened oil prices in 2005–2014 has attracted considerable academic and policy attention, there is scant cross-disciplinary research considering energy price, transport and land use together. In car dependent societies many socio-economically disadvantaged areas often lack public and active transport accessibility. Emerging research focus has been placed on issues of transport equity including effects of fuel prices. We reviewed 45 years (1972–2017) of publications about fuel price impacts, transport, and urban context, drawn from Web of Science listed publications. Bibliographic citation analysis reveals eight major research clusters with a set of inter-city comparative studies at their centre. The historical evolution, geographical trends, research approaches and the key themes are revealed by context analysis. The paper highlights the need for further studies looking at energy, transport and land use interaction, and suggests a greater focus on transport equity.     

Recent developments in traffic flow modeling using macroscopic fundamental diagram

ABSTRACT

This paper presents an overview of the recent developments in traffic flow modelling and analysis using macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) as well as their applications. In recent literature, various aggregated traffic models have been proposed and studied to analyse traffic flow while enhancing network efficiency. Many of these studies have focused on models based on MFD that describes the relationship between aggregated flow and aggregated density of transport networks. The analysis of MFD has been carried out based on experimental data collected from sensors and GPS, as well as simulation models. Several factors are found to influence the existence and shape of MFD, including traffic demand, network and signal settings, and route choices. As MFD can well express the traffic dynamics of large urban transport networks, it has been extensively applied to traffic studies, including the development of network-wide control strategies, network partitioning, performance evaluation, and road pricing. This work also presents future extensions and research directions for MFD-based traffic modelling and applications.     

Exploring ‘weak signals’' as potential challenges in transport: an inventory of potential future technology developments

This article assesses the most likely technological developments in transport, not only by investigating current innovations but also by observing different approaches to confronting future developments. The article discusses technology forecasting and the meaning of environmentally sound technologies; some insights into technology development and the relevance of technological forecasting; the factors that influence technology development in transport; and, in this context, differentiation between exploration, expectation and forecasting. It goes on to identify, from four different perspectives, major developments of strategic relevance for the transport sector that might arise in the longer term. An assessment is made of the consequences of these observations for the implementation of innovations in transport.     

Zambia,the TAZARA and the alternative outlets to the sea

Zambia has attempted to reduce her excessive transport dependency on her traditional transport routes via South Africa and the former Portugese colonies. The costly construction of the Tanzania‐Zambia Railway (TAZARA) was part of this diversification strategy. This article examines the nature, extent and direction of Zambian traffic, including its historical evolution. It explores further the place of TAZARA among the various routes to Mozambican, Angolan and South African ports, and the ensuing actual and potential competition. Future traffic patterns will be influenced not only by the direct and service‐oriented costs of the different lines, but also by the region's volatile and uncertain political climate.     

Changes in the relationships between transport,communications and urban form

Transport, communications and urban form cover an overlapping area of rising academic and practical concern. This paper traces several of the many themes brought together under different professional banners, and shows how a confluence of interest is emerging.The themes are the developments in urban planning analysis, transport and time use studies, telecommunications and industrial location, all of which contribute to the area of locational effects of improved telecommunications technology, and are affected by alterations in the nature of work and the uses made of time by individuals. The convergence of geographical, planning, transportation and communication developments now requires explicit investigation, as the timings of technological and theoretical developments appear to coincide with the emergence of a significant need to do so. Some of the gaps between present knowledge and expertise that need to be filled are specified.These include the investigation of the testing and use of current land use integrated analyses for road and development assessment, investigation of the nature and characteristics of work and education which are most affected by telecommunications and computer support, development of longitudinal monitoring methods for overall urban development leading indicators, exploitation of newly-available cross-sectional household and city data sets in conjunction with historical data for longitudinal investigations and forward projections, accounting for altered family structure and activity patterns and the anticipation and assessment of probable further technological change, which can and will undermine many current long term commitments.     

Financing urban transport projects in Europe

Transport demand in western Europe has risen steadily in recent years and the forecasts are that the unrestrained demand will continue to rise in the foreseeable future. This growth has put considerable pressure on the resources available to finance infrastructure investments and to fund what are seen as socially important social services. The recent developments in eastern Europe and the anticipated growth of the post-Communist states will put further strains on the fiscal ability of authorities in these countries to fund transport investments and operations. The outcome has been revisions in the way transport projects are funded. This paper, taking a very broad view of what constitutes a transport project, examines the specific nature of urban transport financing in Europe.     

Urban passenger transport in the United States and Europe: a comparative analysis of public policies

This is the second part of a two‐part series that examines recent developments in urban passenger transport in the United States and Europe, focusing on the roles and impacts of the public sector as these have varied by country and over time. The first part of the series described public policies for roadway systems and private car use, whereas this second part concentrates on public transport. After a review of demand and supply trends, the article evaluates government policies in terms of public vs private ownership and operation, public regulation, financing responsibility by government level, types and amounts of subsidy, and impacts of ownership, regulation, and financing arrangements on costs and productivity. This second part concludes with an overall comparison between Europe and the United States, and considers how Europeans and Americans might learn from each other's successes and mistakes in order to improve transport policies.     

Microeconomic theory and generalised cost

In a number of articles in this journal the use of generalised cost in travel demand analysis and transport planning has been subject to debate. However, some of the fundamental problems raised in these articles are left unanswered — e.g., the precise relationship between conventional microeconomic consumer demand theory and generalised cost, an issue with which this article is concerned. It is shown here that necessary and sufficient conditions for expressing travel demand in terms of generalised cost are that this cost, when measured in monetary units, is linear, and that the time variable is weighted by a constant marginal value of time. It is also shown that these conditions imply strong assumptions about the consumer's behaviour — e.g., that the willingness to pay to save time whilst travelling is not a function of real income.     

Research trends in urban transport science: Some empirical evidence from academic research

The field of urban transport planning is now established as a scientific activity. Its historical evolution shows an intense search for the appropriate methodological approach, in view of the significant changes on the nature of the transport problem. This relationship between methodology and problem is studied on the basis of Kuhn's theory for scientific progress. Changes in paradigm are detected and analysed through the use of data from academic research leading for higher degrees in both the United Kingdom and the United States for a period of 20 years (1962–1981). A number of different classifications are proposed. The results of the analysis suggest that research in transport is passing through a transition phase, or paradigm shift, and that coping with the increasing level of complexity of the transport problem is the next step forward.     

Transport and equity in Latin America: a critical review of socially oriented accessibility assessments*

ABSTRACT

A growing concern for mobility-related social inclusion and equity is evident from both academic research and planning best practices. Scholarly research promotes accessibility as the main aim of transport planning, assuming it as the evaluative approach that better conveys how mobility contributes to individuals' well-being and participation in social life. Accessibility can be crucial to address the socio-spatial inequalities that characterise manifold settings across the world. Amongst them, Latin American countries have been keen in tackling such imbalances through mobility-related interventions, as the renowned cases of Curitiba, Medellin and Bogotá show. The widespread interest in mobility as both a cause and effect of social disparities has generated an increasing stream of work that examines Latin American settings through the lenses of accessibility. This paper aims at critically reviewing the growing scholarly works that, providing accessibility-based evaluations, has examined issues of transport and equity in Latin America. Proposing a novel conceptual framework that considers the underlying ethical stance, components of accessibility and implications for planning and policy, this work examines what approaches, features and indicators are present in the current literature, as well as what settings have been taken into consideration by scholarly research. Moreover, the review has an explicit operational interest, to define what indicators are relevant or missing to assess accessibility in the light of social concerns, as well as to consider the current and potential implications that such research findings have on transport planning and policy. The review highlights how a growing but still limited body of work has examined transport and equity in Latin America, suggesting academic, technical and operational avenues to enhance theoretical and practical approaches to the issue.     

International logistics in Lithuania at a time of transition

This paper examines the current situation in the largest of the Baltic States - Lithuania - with respect to the development of international transport and logistics in the context of the severe political, economic and social changes that have taken place since 1991. Utilizing statistics previously unavailable for the region, the paper examines the impact of transition and the competitive role of East European carriers upon a specific international movement of electronic goods between Frankfurt/Main in Germany and Vilnius in Lithuania, developing a detailed cost model for the alternative modal choices that are available - road and ship/road. Rail transport is excluded as no international rail services between the two countries are available and there are no plans for such services in the near future. From this, a series of issues for the future in the context of potential EU membership, transport infrastructure developments and logistical trends is analysed.     

Transport in large cities: a Brazilian point of view

Abstract

Following the historical evolution of urban transport in South America, the authors show the economic, technological and cultural facts that have governed its development until today.

The paper, mainly based on experience in large Brazilian cities, gives facts and figures about some of the most important towns where different approaches to urban transport were tried. Information about other South American countries is also given and discussed.

The article details the evolution, current situation and new plans in Sao Paulo city, describing concession criteria, modal split and the economics of the different modes in operation today and planned for future use, ending with the general influence of Sao Paulo experience of urban transport systems in many other Brazilian cities.     

No entry for congestion taxes?

This paper reviews some of the recent thinking on the theory of congestion taxes and considers some of the reasons why little practical interest has been shown in them despite the existence of an extensive academic literature. Recent developments in the theory suggest that the concept of an optimal congestion tax may be a somewhat utopian one, but if some measure of traffic restriction is desired, it is argued that congestion taxes have advantages over possible alternative non-pricing approaches. The costs of developing and operating congestion tax schemes are seen as a substantial deterrent to their use in practice, but it is argued that the political costs involved are perhaps of more fundamental significance.     

A proof of the relationship between optimal vehicle size,haulage length and the structure of distance-transport costs

This paper deals with two interrelated questions, namely the optimum size of a vehicle or vessel, and the structure of transport costs with respect to haulage distance. The relationship between these two questions has not been coherently dealt with previously in the literature, and the heuristic attempts at doing so have lead to both theoretical and empirical anomalies. This paper adopts an inventory optimisation approach in order to show that both of these questions can be treated in a unified manner and this allows us to show, first, that under very general conditions the optimum size of a ship increases with the haulage distance and haulage weight, and second, that the observed structure of transport costs with respect to the haulage distance and quantity is itself a result of this optimisation problem.     

Community Severance: Where Is It Found and at What Cost?

Community severance occurs when transport infrastructure or motorised traffic divides space and people. Despite the growing awareness of its effects on the wellbeing of local communities, the problem is not usually assessed quantitatively or assigned a monetary value. This paper reviews existing practice and research on quantitative methods dealing with community severance. The problem is first decomposed into a series of questions, which are then used as a base to review the methods found in governmental guidance documents, technical reports, and academic studies. The paper ends with recommendations for the integration of severance issues into transport planning.     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

Regulating transport’s environmental impacts in a deregulating world

In recent years, a growing awareness of the environmental impacts of transport has played a major part in the shift towards policies to manage the demand for travel. As a result, a substantial increase in the role of public transport has been identified as necessary in any strategy towards more environmentally sustainable transport patterns. At the same time there has been a quite separate process of deregulation and the withdrawal of the state from the transport market. These two trends appear to represent potentially contradictory processes. This article draws upon two major studies that explore the relationship between increasing needs for environmental regulation and the privatisation of bus and rail services. It is shown that, as currently organised in Britain, the development of bus and rail services are inadequately linked to strategic environmental policymaking and, rather than being part of the solution to transport’s environmental impacts, there is a real danger that these ‘green’ methods of transport could slide into simply being part of the problem itself. It is concluded that privatisation and deregulation does not mean the end of the need for policy mechanisms, but they do mean that policy has to be implemented in a very different way.