Impacts of rail transit access on land and housing values in China: a quantitative synthesis

ABSTRACT

Rail transit investment has been viewed as a prominent policy instrument for local and regional development. However, little is known about to what extent the theorised changes in land and housing values arising from rail transit access can be substantiated by evidence in a large developing country context. This paper presents a quantitative review of empirical studies that analysed the impacts of rail transit access on land and housing values in China. We review empirical analyses in 67 studies from 1997 to 2018 for which we encode quantitative results along with a range of theoretically combinations of spatially contextual characteristics, data and methodological-design characteristics. The results show that there are significant variations in the size estimates of effects of rail transit access across studies. Such variations are associated with rail project types, data and methodological designs. Our study provides the insights on what has already been known and what needs to be known on evaluating real estate consequences of rail transit improvements in developing countries.     

Value of accessibility to Bogotá's bus rapid transit system

With several successful cases world‐wide, bus rapid transit (BRT) has reemerged as a cost‐effective transportation alternative for urban mobility. Despite the resurgence of BRT, there is a world‐wide paucity of research examining its ability to spur and development. By estimating spatial hedonic price functions, the paper determines the extent to which access to BRT stations in Bogotá, Colombia, currently are capitalized into land values. Results suggest that for every 5 min of additional walking time to a BRT station, the rental price of a property decreases by between 6.8 and 9.3%, after controlling for structural characteristics, neighbourhood attributes and proximity to the BRT corridor. Evaluated at the average walking time to a BRT station, this effect translates into an elasticity of between ??0.16 and ??0.22. Although these estimates cannot be attributable directly to the presence of the BRT system because a cross‐sectional design is used, they suggest that the land market in Bogotá values access to BRT station locations.     

A Modeling Framework for Bus Rapid Transit Operations Evaluation and Service Planning

Abstract

In this paper, we present a dynamic traffic assignment-simulation modeling framework (DYNASMART-P) to support the evaluation and planning of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) services in urban transportation networks. The model represents the different characteristics associated with BRT operations such as: exclusive right-of-way lanes, limited-stop service, signal prioritization at congested intersections, and enhanced bus stops to reduce passenger boarding times. A set of simulation experiments is conducted using the model to study the impact of introducing a hypothetical BRT service in the Knoxville area in the State of Tennessee. In these experiments, the different operational characteristics of BRT are evaluated in terms of potential impact on transit ridership and on the interacting auto traffic. The results illustrate the advantages of BRT for increasing transit ridership and improving overall system performance.     

Ridership drivers of bus rapid transit systems

We have collected information on 46 bus rapid transit (BRT) systems throughout the world to investigate the potential patronage drivers. From a large number of candidate explanatory variables (quantitative and qualitative), 11 sources of systematic variation are identified which have a statistically significant impact on daily passenger-trip numbers. These sources are fare, headway, the length of the BRT network, the number of corridors, average distance between stations; whether there is: an integrated network of routes and corridors, modal integration at BRT stations, pre-board fare collection and fare verification, quality control oversight from an independent agency, at-level boarding and alighting, as well as the location of BRT. The findings of this paper offer important insights into features of BRT systems that are positive contributors to growing patronage and hence should be taken into account in designing and planning BRT systems.     

Can value capture work in a car dependent city? Willingness to pay for transit access in Perth,Western Australia

This paper investigates the impact of transit on urban land markets in the highly car dependent corridors of Perth with a focus on where new fast rail transit services have recently been built. It determines people’s willingness to pay for transit access within different pedestrian catchments for each of the corridors based on hedonic price modelling using land value data on over 460,000 households. The case study uses cross sectional and panel data hedonic price modelling methodology for the calculation of willingness to pay for transit. It finds that land market increases of up to 40% can be achieved, and is particularly relevant to car dependent cities looking to capture the financial and economic value created to build transit extensions or entirely new systems, thus making a strong case for value capture funding of transit projects into car dependent suburbs and the potential for density increases near stations.     

Effects of new bus and rail rapid transit systems – an international review

Cities worldwide are implementing modern transit systems to improve mobility in the increasingly congested metropolitan areas. Despite much research on the effects of such systems, a comparison of effects across transit modes and countries has not been studied comprehensively. This paper fills this gap in the literature by reviewing and comparing the effects obtained by 86 transit systems around the world, including Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Light Rail Transit (LRT), metro and heavy rail transit systems. The analysis is twofold by analysing (i) the direct operational effects related to travel time, ridership and modal shifts, and (ii) the indirect strategic effects in terms of effects on property values and urban development. The review confirms the existing literature suggesting that BRT can attract many passengers if travel time reductions are significantly high. This leads to attractive areas surrounding the transit line with increasing property values. Such effects are traditionally associated with attractive rail-based public transport systems. However, a statistical comparison of 41 systems did not show significant deviations between effects on property values resulting from BRT, LRT and metro systems, respectively. Hence, this paper indicates that large strategic effects can be obtained by implementing BRT systems at a much lower cost.     

Integrating a traffic router and microsimulator into a land use and travel demand model

Abstract

This paper describes one of the first known attempts at integrating a dynamic and disaggregated land-use model with a traffic microsimulator and compares its predictions of land use to those from an integration of the same land-use model with a more traditional four-step travel demand model. For our study area of Chittenden County, Vermont, we used a 40-year simulation beginning in 1990. Predicted differences in residential units between models for 2030 broken down by town correlated significantly with predicted differences in accessibility. The two towns with the greatest predicted differences in land use and accessibility are also the towns that currently have the most severe traffic bottlenecks and poorest route redundancy. Our results suggest that this particular integration of a microsimulator with a disaggregated land-use model is technically feasible, but that in the context of an isolated, small metropolitan area, the differences in predicted land use are small.     

Bus rapid transit systems: a comparative assessment

There is renewed interest in many developing and developed countries in finding ways of providing efficient and effective public transport that does not come with a high price tag. An increasing number of nations are asking the question—what type of public transport system can deliver value for money? Although light rail has often been promoted as a popular ‘solution’, there has been progressively emerging an attractive alternative in the form of bus rapid transit (BRT). BRT is a system operating on its own right-of-way either as a full BRT with high quality interchanges, integrated smart card fare payment and efficient throughput of passengers alighting and boarding at bus stations; or as a system with some amount of dedicated right-of-way (light BRT) and lesser integration of service and fares. The notion that buses essentially operate in a constrained service environment under a mixed traffic regime and that trains have privileged dedicated right-of-way, is no longer the only sustainable and valid proposition. This paper evaluates the status of 44 BRT systems in operation throughout the world as a way of identifying the capability of moving substantial numbers of passengers, using infrastructure whose costs overall and per kilometre are extremely attractive. When ongoing lifecycle costs (operations and maintenance) are taken into account, the costs of providing high capacity integrated BRT systems are an attractive option in many contexts.     

Bus Rapid Transit System in Istanbul: A Success Story or Flawed Planning Decision?

Abstract

There is a growing tendency in cities around the world to invest in Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems in an attempt to improve the capacity and quality of public transport services. The appeal of BRTs is based on their ability to combine the service level of rail transit systems with the flexibility of buses at relatively lower investment costs, and this was the motivation behind the opening of such a system in the Turkish city of Istanbul in 2007. This system has attracted mixed opinions as to its performance, as while passenger ridership figures are extremely high, proving the effectiveness of the system, there is an argument that the corridor should have been developed with rail technology, and that the BRT is failing to meet the demand. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of this system, assessing its planning and performance through a comparative analysis of a number of BRTs in the world and Istanbul's metro and tram systems. The analysis confirms the success of the system in terms of passenger statistics, but also highlights a number of problems in certain planning decisions that should be addressed, thus taking the discussion beyond a simplified comparison of bus and rail technologies.     

The impact of land-use mix on residents' travel energy consumption: New evidence from Beijing

Policies that encourage mixed land use are widely believed to make transport more energy efficient. However, few studies have directly examined the impacts of land-use heterogeneity on travel energy consumption at the individual level. Moreover, the definition and measures of land-use heterogeneity are debated. This paper aims to fill these gaps using the large city of Beijing, China, as a case study. Three types of land use are examined in terms of their effects on individual residents’ travel energy consumption. The results suggest that high land-use diversity and a good jobs-housing balance significantly reduces commuting travel. Interestingly, highly heterogeneous retail and housing areas may have high travel energy use, as residents are more likely to go shopping. There are obvious spatial variations in these effects. Residents of suburban ‘newtowns’, where the jobs-housing balance is particularly good, consume less travel energy. The results suggest that decreased use of conventional planning patterns, such as the socialist danwei system, and increasing urban sprawl, bring new challenges to achieving transport efficiency. Mixed land-use policies can be an effective solution to these challenges.     

Analyzing the impact of a planned transit-oriented development on mode share and traffic conditions

ABSTRACT

Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a popular planning strategy used to maximize accessibility to transit for various trip purposes. The quantitative effects of TOD on travel mode shift and traffic congestion have not been extensively tested in the current literature. This paper utilizes a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) mode share model and a mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model to analyze the impact of a planned TOD in Maryland. The proposed model aims at improving the understanding of the quantitative impacts of such a TOD on mode share and traffic congestion. The main result of the mode share model indicates that the increase in transit ridership for a transit accessible shopping center is not that significant. Local traffic conditions will deteriorate due to a lack of investment in road infrastructure planned for the TOD area. The proposed method could be a valuable tool for other indicative land development or transportation policy analyses.     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

A simulation‐based reliability assessment approach for congested transit network

This paper is an attempt to develop a generic simulation‐based approach to assess transit service reliability, taking into account interaction between network performance and passengers' route choice behaviour. Three types of reliability, say, system wide travel time reliability, schedule reliability and direct boarding waiting‐time reliability are defined from perspectives of the community or transit administration, the operator and passengers. A Monte Carlo simulation approach with a stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment model embedded is proposed to quantify these three reliability measures of transit service. A simple transit network with a bus rapid transit (BRT) corridor is analysed as a case study where the impacts of BRT components on transit service reliability are evaluated preliminarily.     

Characterizing metro networks: state,form, and structure

The broad goal of this paper is to characterize the network feature of metro systems. By looking at 33 metro systems in the world, we adapt various concepts of graph theory to describe characteristics of State, Form and Structure; these three characteristics are defined using new or existing network indicators. State measures the complexity of a network; we identify three phases in the development of transit networks, with mature systems being 66% completely connected. Form investigates the link between metro systems and the built environment, distinguishing networks oriented towards regional accessibility, local coverage or regional coverage. Structure examines the intrinsic properties of current networks; indicators of connectivity and directness are formulated. The method presented is this paper should be taken as a supplement to traditional planning factors such as demand, demography, geography, costs, etc. It is particularly useful at the strategic planning phase as it offers information on current and planned systems, which can then be used towards setting a vision, defining new targets and making decision between various scenarios; it can also be used to compare existing systems. We also link the three characteristics to transit line type and land-use; overall the presence of tangential and/or (semi)-circumferential lines may be key. In addition, we have been able to identify paths of development, which should be strongly considered in future projects.     

Capitalization of BRT network expansions effects into prices of non-expansion areas

A before and after hedonic model is used to determine the property value impacts on properties already served by the transit system caused by extensions to Bogotá’s bus rapid transit system. Asking prices of residential properties belonging to an intervention area (N = 1407 before, 1570 after) or a control area (N = 267 before, 732 after) and offered for sale between 2001 and 2006 are used to determine capitalization of the enhanced regional access provided by the extension. Properties offered during the year the extension was inaugurated and in subsequent years have asking prices that are between 13% and 14% higher than prices for properties in the control area, after adjusting for structural, neighborhood and regional accessibility characteristics of each property. Furthermore, the appreciation is similar for properties within 500 m and properties between 500 m and 1 km of the BRT.     

Parking restraint policy and urban vitality

The aim of the paper is to examine whether parking restraint policies may have impacts on the economic vitality of urban centres. Literature from empirical, attitudinal and modelling studies is reviewed within a structure based around a conceptual framework of parking impacts. The search for relevant material was undertaken both for the UK and overseas, but the discussion and conclusions were related to the UK context. Original modelling was undertaken and is reported here. This review found that as parking restraint policies have not been previously implemented with consistency or longevity, there is a lack of direct evidence, given that land-use impacts typically involve a long-term response. Furthermore, different methods of examining impacts have come to very different conclusions. Attitudinal evidence suggests that there is a high level of sensitivity to parking provision, whereas aggregate statistical studies tend to find only a weak relationship. The reasons underlying these differences are discussed. Land-use/transport models show impacts if there is sufficient change in generalized cost, although the spatial distribution of impacts, and impacts by household or employment disaggregation, vary considerably. Given the inconclusive nature of the evidence to date, only tentative policy implications can be drawn. Recommendations for further research are outlined, both for empirical study and for model enhancements.     

Why do paratransit operators resist participation in bus rapid transit? Case evidence from Bogota,Mexico City,Johannesburg and Lagos

ABSTRACT

Public transport in cities of the Global South is mainly provided by paratransit operators who self-regulate their services in the absence of adequate formal transport supply and due to weak or no formal regulatory framework and enforcement. Paratransit operators compete with each other for passengers as every passenger translates into profit. Governments in the Global South have sought to reform public transport services through Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) to regulate and ensure efficiency, address the problems of drivers competition and negative externalities associated with paratransit operations. Paratransit operators have been considered as one of the barriers to public transport reforms such as BRT without much consideration for their style of operations. This neglect has contributed to their resistance and low interest in participating in BRT and has even led to opposition. Consequently, non-consideration of incumbent operators in the implementation of transit reforms has been one important reason for delay or failure in their introduction. In this study, we identify reasons why paratransit operators resist and show low interest in BRT even in situations where public institutions have opted not to replace them but rather invite them to participate in the reforms. The basis is a case study analysis of four cities with different characteristics and different BRT implementation strategies where paratransit operators showed resistance and low interest to participate. We identify (1) loss of autonomy, flexibility and established practices/routines, (2) financial and economic risk avoidance and (3) lack of trust in governments who initiate reforms as a basis for their resistance and low interest. These findings are theoretically substantiated by organisational management and social psychology concepts that explain resistance to change. Understanding and recognising these reasons may help planners in designing more appropriate strategies for paratransit reforms.     

Policy Simulation for New BRT and Area Pricing Alternatives Using an Opinion Survey in Jakarta

Abstract

An area pricing scheme for Jakarta, Indonesia, is currently under review as a transportation control measure along with the operation of new bus rapid transit (BRT) system. While this scheme may be effective for congestion reduction in the central business district (CBD), provision of alternative means of transportation for auto users that are ‘pushed-out’ is of great importance to obtain public acceptance. Hence, it is necessary to simulate simultaneously the area pricing scheme and the BRT development which may serve as an alternative for assumed ‘pushed-out’ auto users. Utilizing data from an opinion survey, this paper studies how BRT and auto ridership are likely to vary as a function of traveler and system attributes. Additionally, the study attempts to evaluate the way this new travel mode is distinguished from other existing conventional transportation alternatives in Jakarta. The survey data contains socioeconomic information of over 1000 respondents as well as details of to-work/school trips to the CBD including mode, travel cost, time, etc. Respondents were asked about their willingness to shift from their current mode to BRT to make the same travel for different BRT fare levels. Modeling efforts suggest that a mixed logit model performs better in explaining choice behavior. Therefore, this model was used for policy simulation. The simulation results brought about many implications as to the tested policies. While the developed models may be applied only to future BRT corridors in which the survey was conducted, they capture the key variables that are significant in explaining mode choice behavior and present great potential for practical use in policy simulation and analysis in a large metropolitan area of the developing world.     

Exploring built environment impacts on transit use – an updated meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

The built environment (BE) is widely accepted to influence transit use (TU). Evidence to date suggests the relationship is dependent on many factors which can be difficult to account for in quantitative studies. This creates barriers to transferring research into practice. Considering many studies together can be useful for accounting for more of the factors impacting transit use. Yet, meta-analysis of research measuring these influences was last undertaken in 2010 based on 18 studies. Since then 90 new quantitative studies have been published. These recent studies use improved methodologies and are conducted in more diverse geographies. This paper reports an improved and updated meta-analysis of built environment impacts on transit use. It compares elasticity estimates from research published pre-and post-2010 and explores the impact of new methods and a more diverse geographical representation on findings. Updated meta-elasticities range from <0.01 to 0.26; a similar range to the 2010 study. However, at the individual indicator levels, more recent results are different. Elasticities for urban density, including population, employment and commercial density, have increased significantly in studies published since 2010, as did that of land use mix. However, measures of local access, design and jobs-housing balance decreased in post-2010 studies. These results confirm the small but imprecise relationship between the BE and TU. Results also suggest that while the range of elasticity impacts is relatively consistent, new study methodologies, notably those that control for regional accessibility and self-selection, and the increasing geographical diversity in study applications, is acting to change BE-TU findings at the indicator level. Research setting and context are important to consider when using empirical results to design BE strategies to promote transit use.