Elasticities of fuel and traffic demand and the direct rebound effects: An econometric estimation in the case of Norway

We estimate the elasticities of fuel and travel demand with respect to fuel prices and income in the case of Norway. Furthermore, we derive the direct rebound effects that explain the degree to which a fuel price increase is “offset” in the form of greater fuel use and/or travel due to improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency. For this purpose, we use and compare two alternative econometric approaches: the error correction model (ECM) and the dynamic model. Our initial assumption is that one should not be indifferent with respect to the approach used to derive elasticities. The data used are for the period 1980–2011. Our results indicate the following: (1) the dynamic model fits the data better than the ECM model does; (2) the estimated elasticities of fuel demand with respect to price and income are −0.26 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.36 and 0.09 in the long run. For travel demand, the respective elasticities are −0.11 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.24 and 0.13 in the long run, implying inelastic demands for fuel and travel demand; and (3) rebound effects indicate that 0.26% and 0.06% of fuel savings as a result of fuel price increase will be offset in the form of more fuel use in the short run and in the long run, respectively, if fuel efficiency increases by 1%. Our policy recommendations are that policies should not be indifferent to the methods used to derive elasticities. We contend that it is crucial to seriously consider rebound effects in policy making because basic elasticity estimates exaggerate the impact of fuel price increases.     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.     

A dynamic analysis of person and household activity and travel patterns using data from the first two waves in the Puget Sound Transportation Panel

Daily activity participation and travel patterns are examined using data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel (PSTP), which contains two-pairs of daily travel diary information (wave 1 in 1989 and wave 2 in 1990). Summary data of the travel diaries at the person and household levels are obtained using cluster analysis. At the person level, four clusters are found reasonable for both activity and travel. The four-cluster solutions indicate substantial day-to-day variation in activity participation and similarity in travel behavior over time. Temporal changes are analyzed using contingency table methods and log-linear models. The analysis reveals that activity participation and mobility present many regularities over time. Transitions within each wave show strong dependence between two days for both activity and travel, with higher dependency for the travel patterns than for the activity patterns. These are consistent when the analysis focuses on a longer period such as a year. Temporal dependencies appear to be stronger in the household-based than the person-based analysis. A hierarchical structure is also found in the relationship between activity and travel clusters. The link between activity and travel is much stronger within a day, weaker from one day to another, and the least strong from one year to the next. Important irregularities, however, are found and may be due to scheduling time-frames adopted by the respondents that are only partially captured in the data used.     

Estimating Freight Transport Price Elasticity in Multi-mode Studies: A Review and Additional Results from a Multimodal Network Model

Abstract

The paper presents a detailed comparative review of price/cost elasticity estimates published in a number of studies on multi-mode freight transport demands. It attempts to determine which factors could explain the wide diversity of estimates: data aggregation, diversity of markets, and methodology. It also presents new estimates for rail, road, and waterway modes, derived from a multimodal freight network model of the Rhine area market. Direct and cross-elasticities are estimated for 11 groups of commodities and per distance category. The results are critically assessed by comparison with the reviewed studies. The paper concludes with a few recommendations about meaningful uses of existing estimates and the need for additional experiments with different methodologies applied on a common data basis.