Attitudes towards the role of Cost–Benefit Analysis in the decision-making process for spatial-infrastructure projects: A Dutch case study

This paper provides a systematic overview of the attitudes of key actors in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) practice towards the role of CBA in the decision-making process for spatial-infrastructure projects. The main aim of this paper is to scrutinize the extent to which there is agreement among these Dutch actors in regard to the role of the CBA in the decision-making process. A secondary goal is to provide possible explanations for agreements and controversies among key actors in the Dutch CBA practice. In this study two research methods are combined to study the key actors’ attitudes. Firstly, 86 key actors (e.g. consultants, scientists, policy makers) were interviewed in-depth. Secondly, 74 of them completed a written questionnaire. The most important conclusion of this paper is that in the Dutch CBA practice there is agreement that CBA must have a role in the appraisal process of spatial-infrastructure projects. However, there is a lot of controversy among economists and spatial planners in the Dutch CBA practice concerning the value that is and should be assigned to CBA in the decision-making process. Economists predominantly believe that not enough value is assigned to the CBA in the decision-making process, whereas spatial planners predominantly think that too much value is assigned to the CBA. Both economists and spatial planners believe that this controversy is problematic as it results in debates about the pros and cons of CBA instead of the pros and cons of the spatial-infrastructure projects. This paper analyzes some solutions for this controversy.     

Incomplete cost – incomplete benefit analysis in transport appraisal

This paper examines the current application of transport appraisal in the UK, in particular exploring the partiality of cost–benefit analysis (CBA) within the wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) process. It argues that applying a quantitative assessment of the varied impacts of complex transport projects can only be partial within the CBA. Analysis can overlook social, human life, environmental and built environment impacts, and projects can be inconsistent with the planning strategy for an area. The application of CBA is critically reviewed using two case studies: the proposed upgrade of the South Fylde railway line and the Heysham-M6 Link Road, both from North West England. A participatory MCA process is suggested to help improve the process of transport appraisal, as part of an improved public debate on transport investment priorities.     

Innovative Public Transport Oriented Policies in Seoul

The objective of this paper is to introduce the innovative transport policies of Seoul that have recently been planned and implemented. In this paper, the various transport policies of Seoul are classified and explained according to two important paradoxes that are highlighted by Downs and Thomson, and Edgeworth. These paradoxes describe how to break the vicious circle of car and public transport use by restraining car use and encouraging the use of public transport, and thus indicate how traffic congestion problems might be solved.     

Why Cost Benefit Analysis is perceived as a problematic tool for assessment of transport plans: A process perspective

Academic discussions on Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) as an appraisal instrument for integrated land use and transportation plans tend to focus on its technical aspects. However, many issues of CBA also arise from process related matters, especially when assessing integrated plans. Using an inductive research design, we explored how these process related issues play out in Dutch planning practices. In two applied research techniques, focus group sessions and open in depth interviews, we focused on process related issues as perceived by CBA participants ranging from plan makers to CBA testers. This article presents the different perceptions of issues in CBA processes. Through these collected perspectives, we found that these issues are multi-layered and present a number of fundamental dilemmas. After relating our empirical data to theory, we conclude that the biggest challenge lies in decreasing the level of mistrust and communication deficits revealed between plan owners and CBA calculators and their respective frames of thinking when assessing complex integrated land use and transportation plans.     

Green approaches at sea – The benefits of adjusting speed instead of anchoring

In this paper, the concept ‘green approaches’ already used in aviation is applied to cargo transportation at sea. Instead of anchoring outside a port waiting for berth, ships can adjust their speed to arrive just in time for berthing. With improved incentives for reducing speed and shared information about berthing times, green approaches instead of anchoring can be a way to reduce fuel consumption and emissions without increasing the transit times of goods. The present study estimates the benefits to society as a whole for the EU ports in the Baltic Sea with Automatic Identification System data applying a new method using data collected in real time. Data consists of all anchored ships awaiting berth on 40 different occasions in 2015 and are subsequently extrapolated to a year. Fuel consumption by the individual ships, emissions and values are calculated from the detailed data with established models and estimates of unit values. The potential benefits are estimated at 27 million euros per year in the scenario where the near 15,000 anchorings by ships annually awaiting berth may instead start a green approach 12 h prior to arrival and may reduce speed by 25%, using the middle unit values for fuel and emissions. The methodology used in the paper can be applied to estimate the benefits of green approaches in other areas with anchored vessels.     

Evaluation of green wave policy in real-time railway traffic management

In order to face the expected growth of transport demand in the next years, several new traffic control policies have been proposed and analyzed both to generate timetables and to effectively manage the traffic in real-time. In this paper, a detailed optimization model is used to analyze one such policy, called green wave, which consists in letting trains wait at the stations to avoid speed profile modifications in open corridors. Such policy is expected to be especially effective when the corridors are the bottleneck of the network. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies on the real-time effects of using this policy. To this end, this work shows a comparison of the delays obtained when trains are allowed or not to change their speed profile in open corridors. An extensive computational study is described for two practical dispatching areas of the Dutch railway network.     

Modelling demand in restricted parking zones

Multiple linear regression (MLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models are used for estimating parking demand in areas with paid short stay parking systems. These models have been applied to the city of Santander (Cantabria, Spain) to check their goodness of fit and their predictive ability. The results show the main advantages and disadvantages of using GWR models. The technique proved to be useful in this case study because it offered a better fit and made better predictions in a scenario showing a certain degree of spatial heterogeneity unexplained by any of the variables introduced into the global model. However, the GWR model also presented situations of local correlation although this was considered moderate given the results provided by the variance inflation factors and the local condition indexes.     

国家级综合运输枢纽型城市发展策略研究

以南京市为例,从枢纽型城市整体构建、综合运输通道系统、综合运输枢纽集疏运体系、保障策略四个方面综合提出构建国家级综合运输型城市的发展策略。     

Should BEVs be subsidized or taxed? A European perspective based on the economic value of CO2 emissions

Battery Electric vehicles (BEVs) are generally considered as potentially contributing to the reduction of CO₂ emissions. Consequently, many countries have promoted (or are in the process of promoting) policies aimed at directly or indirectly subsidizing BEVs to accelerate their market uptake. The aim of this paper is to assess whether BEVs’ subsidies are justified (and by what amount) with reference to the carbon component, distinguishing by car segments and countries. To address these research questions, a simulation model is developed, based on the most recent and reliable data available. The model estimates and monetizes the Well-to-Wheel CO₂ emissions of six car segments in 28 European countries. The monetary value of the difference of the CO₂ emissions between the non-BEVs and the BEVs ranges from −€1133 (tax) to +€3192 (subsidy), depending on the car segment and on the nation considered. These results are then compared to the policies about alternative fuels adopted by the single EU countries, suggesting in some cases the necessity to rethink such incentives.     

On the income elasticity of the value of travel time

Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel time savings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based on two identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13 year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticity of the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, the income elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time.     

Heterogeneous consumer preferences for alternative fuel cars in China

This paper models consumer preferences for alternative fuel cars and conventional, petrol fueled cars in China. It compares discrete choice model specifications where each specification reflects how consumers choose between alternative fuel cars and conventional types of cars. We find that, in China, consumers differentiate between the types of alternative fuel cars and are more likely to consider switching from petrol fuel vehicles to hybrid than to electric cars. Segmentation analysis is used to explore groups of consumers and their likelihood of adopting alternative fuel cars.     

The impact of transport policies on railroad intermodal freight competitiveness – The case of Belgium

This paper discusses the impact of three freight transport policies aiming to promote railroad intermodal transport in Europe, and examines the case of Belgium as a testing ground. These policies consist in subsidizing intermodal transport operations (such as in Belgium, to stimulate rail transport), internalizing external costs (as recommended by the European Union in order to foster cleaner modes), and adopting a system perspective when optimizing the location of inland intermodal terminals. The study proposes an innovative mixed integer intermodal freight location-allocation model based on hub-location theory and deals with non-linear transport costs in order to replicate economies of distance. Our analysis suggests that subsidizing has a significant impact on the volumes transported by intermodal transport, and, to a lesser extent, that optimizing terminal location increases the competitiveness of intermodal transport. On the other hand, according to our assumptions, internalizing external costs can negatively impact the promotion of intermodality. This finding indicates that innovative last-mile transports are needed in order to reduce the external impacts of drayage operations.     

国内外公路运输场站绿色低碳发展政策和技术应用现状分析

通过文献调研,采用纵向比较的方法,文章分析了我国与美国、欧盟、日本等发达国家及地区公路运输场站绿色低碳的发展政策和技术应用现状,并针对我国公路运输场站发展实际,提出了今后公路运输场站绿色低碳发展的几点建议。     

On the fundamental diagram and supply curves for congested urban networks

Macroscopic fundamental diagrams (MFD) of traffic for some networks have been shown to have similar shape to those for single links. They have erroneously been used to help estimate the level of travel in congested networks. We argue that supply curves, which track vehicles in their passage through congested networks, are needed for this purpose, and that they differ from the performance curves generated from MFD. We use a microsimulation model, DRACULA and two networks, one synthesizing the network for Cambridge, England, and one of the city of York, England, to explore the nature of performance curves and supply curves under differing patterns of demand.We show that supply curves differ from performance curves once the onset of congestion is reached, and that the incorrect use of performance curves to estimate demand can thus seriously underestimate traffic levels, the costs of congestion, and the value of congestion relief measures. We also show that network aggregated supply curves are sensitive to the temporal distribution of demand and, potentially, to the spatial distribution of demand. The shape of the supply curve also differs between origin–destination movements within a given network.We argue that supply curves for higher levels of demand cannot be observed in normal traffic conditions, and specify ways in which they can be determined from microsimulation and, potentially, by extrapolating observed data. We discuss the implications of these findings for conventional modelling of network management policies, and for these policies themselves.