Making Cycling Irresistible: Lessons from The Netherlands,Denmark and Germany

Abstract

This article shows how the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany have made bicycling a safe, convenient and practical way to get around their cities. The analysis relies on national aggregate data as well as case studies of large and small cities in each country. The key to achieving high levels of cycling appears to be the provision of separate cycling facilities along heavily travelled roads and at intersections, combined with traffic calming of most residential neighbourhoods. Extensive cycling rights of way in the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany are complemented by ample bike parking, full integration with public transport, comprehensive traffic education and training of both cyclists and motorists, and a wide range of promotional events intended to generate enthusiasm and wide public support for cycling. In addition to their many pro‐bike policies and programmes, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany make driving expensive as well as inconvenient in central cities through a host of taxes and restrictions on car ownership, use and parking. Moreover, strict land‐use policies foster compact, mixed‐use developments that generate shorter and thus more bikeable trips. It is the coordinated implementation of this multi‐faceted, mutually reinforcing set of policies that best explains the success of these three countries in promoting cycling. For comparison, the article portrays the marginal status of cycling in the UK and the USA, where only about 1% of trips are by bike.     

Men Shape a Downward Trend in Car Use among Young Adults—Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

This paper investigates trends in the travel behaviour of young adults in Germany, France, Great Britain, Japan, Norway, and the USA over the past few decades with a focus on car availability and car travel. The trend analysis relies on micro-data from over 20 National Travel Surveys from the study countries dating back to the mid-1970s. The analysis of the survey data is supplemented by official statistics on licence holding. On this basis, this paper compiles a body of evidence for changes in mobility patterns among young adults in industrialized countries over the past few decades. The findings indicate that since the turn of the millennium, access to cars, measured in terms of drivers' licences and household car ownership, has decreased in most study countries—especially for men. Moreover, average daily car travel distance has decreased in most study countries, again especially for men. In France, Japan, and most significantly in the USA, the decrease in car travel has led to a reduction in total everyday travel by young travellers. In Great Britain, the decline in car travel was partly, and in Germany fully, compensated by an increased use of alternative modes of transport.     

Middle‐class Travel Patterns,Predispositions and Attitudes,and Present‐day Transport Policy in Bangkok,Thailand

Abstract

Middle‐class expansion and new consumption patterns have increasingly become an important focus of studies of the development and change in newly industrialized and middle‐income‐developing East and South East Asian countries. However, there is still a dearth of studies in the literature particularly focusing on middle‐class travel patterns, predispositions and transport policy preferences. Nor have the implications of these factors on current transport and land development policy been examined. The present exploratory study addresses this gap by examining three cases in Bangkok, Thailand, which in recent decades witnessed dramatic middle‐class expansion, an increase in private motor vehicle population, and spatial diffusion of middle‐class residences into lower‐density zones in the suburbs. By mainly employing a survey method of data‐gathering and quantitative research analysis, the paper discusses the following findings: (1) that middle‐class travel behaviour is characterized by a high dependence on private motor vehicle travel and ‘inward commuting’; (2) that middle‐class preferences for transport mode and attitudes about remedial policy options are generally protective of their members’ car‐dependence and ownership; and (3) that present policy measures of the Thai government on Bangkok transport perfectly fit and support exclusively middle‐ and upper‐class predispositions and stakes in mobility. These findings in a developing country city basically follow a similar profile to be found in middle‐class‐dominant transport patterns and urban form in a number of North American cities. This paper further argues that in a developing country city such as Bangkok, where marked social differentiation and the combined population of poor and low‐income classes still comprise almost half of the urban social landscape despite an expanding middle‐class, an adequate and good public transport system that also meets the former’s need for efficient mobility is an imperative.     

National policy towards cars: the federal republic of Germany

Although much of the early technical development of the automobile occurred in Germany, the spread of car ownership within Germany was relatively slow up to 1933. Besides the general economic situation, this was due to the high costs of purchasing and running a car. With deliberate promotion of automobility by the national‐socialists after 1933, the pace of motorization proceeded more rapidly until the outbreak of World War II. Immediately after the war, motorization was slow to regain momentum but by the middle fifties, after the initial phase of post‐war reconstruction, the rapid build‐up of cars began again and has continued ever since. By 1986, the West German car fleet exceeded 27 million and 80% of motorized passenger kilometres were made by car.

This rapid post‐war growth was made possible by a liberal transport policy which reacted to growing car use by adaptation and provision of the necessary infrastructure. The adverse effects of vehicular traffic on the environment and on the urban quality of life moved policy at the end of the sixties towards stronger support for urban public transport and regulations for noise and exhaust emissions of automobiles. Also, the high toll of death and injuries from road accidents made improvement of road safety another important policy objective. So far, however, measures taken have fallen short of requiring changes in driver behaviour. Although there is widespread awareness of the environmental and accident costs of automobility, there is a reluctance to legislate (or for people voluntarily) to modify driving behaviour for social objectives.

This paper presents, briefly, the main instruments that have been applied in West Germany to achieve car‐related transport policy objectives, including the latest modifications in the tax system intended to foster the use of low‐emission vehicles. Possible future directions of policy towards the car, depending inter alia on changes in government, are also explored.     

Factors of development of car ownership in Poland

The paper aims (1) to confront the spatial distribution and dynamics of car ownership in Poland with the experiences of the development of private car ownership in other Central and Western European countries; (2) to analyse the phenomenon considered at the regional level, also with respect to its causes and consequences; and (3) to attempt to answer the question whether in the circumstances of the post-socialist countries the development of private car ownership is conditioned by the same factors as those defined in earlier analyses, mainly on the basis of the experiences from developed countries.     

Estimating the long-term effects of different passenger car technologies on energy/fuel consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases in Europe

Abstract

A stated preference (SP) experiment of car ownership was conducted in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) of Maharashtra in India. A full factorial experiment was designed to considering various attributes such as travel time, travel cost, projected household income, car loan payment and servicing cost. Data on 357 individuals were collected which resulted in 3213 observations for the calibration of the work trip and recreational trip car ownership models. The car ownership alternatives considered 0, 1 and 2 cars. A multinomial logit framework was used to develop the car ownership model taking the household as a decision unit. The specification and results of the SP car ownership model are discussed. The observed and predicted values matched reasonably when the validity of the SP car ownership model was tested against revealed preference (RP) data. The car ownership models developed in this study exhibit a satisfactory goodness of fit. It is concluded that the SP modelling approach can be successfully used for modelling car ownership decisions of households in developing countries.     

Car sharing in Norwegian urban areas: Examining interest,intention and the decision to enrol

This article’s objective is to investigate the effects of sociodemographic and residential built environments, directly and indirectly through personality traits, attitudes and car ownership, on willingness to use car sharing in the case of Norway. This is done by examining multiple dimensions of the adoption process: the stated general interest and intention to participate in car sharing among non-members, as well as the decision to enrol as a car sharing user by comparing members to non-members. In this study, we analyse web survey data from 2414 residents from urban areas in Norway, using three structural equation models. Our findings indicate that the adoption of car sharing is complexly related to car ownership, with a noteworthy discrepancy indicating greater car sharing interest, but lower car sharing membership rates among car owners. We also find that environmental concerns exert a clear positive effect on all three dimensions of the adoption process. Being careful with money is linked negatively to interest and intention to participate, while being sociable and agreeable exerts no effect. Car sharers’ sociodemographic profiles are typically that of early adopters, but many of the effects, especially on interest, are mediated by car ownership, environmental consciousness and/or being careful with money, rather than directly on the sociodemographic profiles. Finally, we find car sharing to be more prominent in denser areas, but we did not discover a clear connection with access to public transport.     

Carbon emission from urban passenger transportation in Beijing

Urban passenger transport significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, especially in developing countries owing to the rapid motorization, thus making it an important target for carbon reduction. This article established a method to estimate and analyze carbon emission from urban passenger transport including cars, rail transit, taxis and buses. The scope of research was defined based on car registration area, transport types and modes, the stages of rail transit energy consumption. The data availability and gathering were fully illustrated. A city level emission model for the aforementioned four modes of passenger transport was formulated, and parameters including emission factor of electricity and fuel efficiency were tailored according to local situations such as energy structure and field survey. The results reveal that the emission from Beijing’s urban passenger transport in 2012 stood at 15 million tonnes of CO₂, of which 75.5% was from cars, whereas car trip sharing constitutes only 42.5% of the total residential trips. Bus travel, yielding 28.6 g CO₂, is the most efficient mode of transport under the current situations in terms of per passenger kilometer (PKM) emission, whereas car or taxi trips emit more than 5 times that of bus trips. Although a decrease trend appears, Beijing still has potential for further carbon reduction in passenger transport field in contrast to other cities in developed countries. Development of rail transit and further limitation on cars could assist in reducing 4.39 million tonnes CO₂ emission.     

Urban transport policy development: two case studies in the Middle East

Abstract

The recent completion of two major transport studies of predominantly urban areas in the Middle East (Amman‐Jordan and Bahrain) has provided the opportunity to compare and contrast the transport characteristics of, and medium term transport policies for, the two areas.

While in structure the two transport systems have many similarities, their base year usage differs significantly. In view of the much lower income levels in Amman, and the resulting lower levels of car ownership, greater reliance is placed on public transport in Amman than in the more car‐oriented society in Bahrain. Against this background, and in the context of broadly similar overall levels of growth in travel demand, their development in the medium term future should follow different paths. Amman will need to depend on public transport very heavily, with only limited road building. Bahrain should be able to develop a satisfactory road system, with public transport playing its current role except for the provision of services for some relatively modest number of restrained private vehicle users. In both cases, however, substantial investment in off‐street parking spaces is needed.

The paper briefly describes the social and economic backgrounds of the two areas, and reviews the transport systems and the organisations responsible for them. Travel demand forecasts are summarized, leading to the transport plan and policy development. The prospects for implementation are discussed, and the paper lastly focuses on some aspects which are key to the development of the transport systems in the two countries.     

A Framework for Developing Driving Cycles with On‐Road Driving Data

Abstract

This paper attempts to propose a framework on driving cycle development based on a thorough review of 101 transient driving cycles. A comparison of the driving cycles highlighted that Asian driving is the slowest but most aggressive while European driving is the fastest and smoothest. Further review of the cycle development methodologies identified three major elements for developing a driving cycle; test route selection, data collection and cycle construction methods. A framework was eventually proposed based on these findings and recommendations from this review. First, traffic activity patterns and quantitative statistics should be considered in determining the test routes. Speed data can be collected by using chase car method, on‐board measurement techniques or their hybrid. As for the construction of driving cycle, the matching approach has been more commonly used. It is recommended that the tendency of zero change in acceleration, which has been commonly ignored in the literature, and the application of succession probability at second‐by‐second level should be further explored. A fifth mode, creeping, is also recommended for modal analysis for characterizing urban congested driving conditions.     

Establishing car sharing services in rural areas: a simulation-based fleet operations analysis

Today, car sharing represents a generally accepted and widespread mode of individual transport. Car sharing providers operate their fleets effectively in many cities around the world. Surprisingly, rural areas don’t seem to have been considered in provider’s current expansion strategies. However, studies suggest that car sharing would have the greatest impact on improving sustainability and reducing traffic if it were offered nationwide. In this paper, we analyze the factors that prevent car sharing enterprises from developing their services in rural regions. Supported by a simulation model, we elaborate strategic implications on how to deal with potential hindrances such as lower demand or longer driving distances. For this purpose, a symbiosis of urban and rural car sharing services was analyzed. Our findings indicate a certain feasibility of rural car sharing development, while highlighting the positive effect it could have on car sharing demand in urban areas.

     

Valuation of environmental externalities: from theory to decision‐making

Valuation of externalities is a condition for correct investment and pricing decisions in transport. This paper provides a brief survey of the main studies achieved in OECD countries in order to get these valuations. Numerical values for the average social cost of transport are presented. The procedures according to which environment is taken into account in France and Italy are analyzed, and the importance of valuation in these procedures is assessed. Finally, prospects for further research and new developments are expressed.     

Container Railfreight Services in North‐west Europe: Diversity of Organizational Forms in a Liberalizing Environment

Abstract

The institutional environment of rail transport has changed as a result of recent European directives, but the changes have taken different forms from one country to another. In the case of international maritime chains, the development of door‐to‐door services makes inland haulage from the loading and discharging ports extremely important, and it highlights the need to reshape the rail freight industry. This paper analyses the degree of involvement of different actors drawn from the maritime industry in developing and commercializing rail services in the changing regulatory environment. Several maritime operators, shipping lines, port‐handling companies and port authorities have been involved in some container rail services since the early days of liberalization. Their commitments take very different forms, however. Whereas contracts are mainly used for the provision of service, particularly for train haulage, integration by means of shareholding or creating subsidiaries or joint ventures is used for marketing. Important differences between France, the UK, Germany and the Netherlands are detailed. In the latter two countries, there is more involvement in the provision of rail services. Marketing rail services appear to be the main strategic issue for the maritime operators in all four countries     

The impact of fuel availability on demand for alternative-fuel vehicles

We study the impact of fuel availability on demand for alternative-fuel vehicles, using data from a survey of potential car buyers in Germany. The survey was conducted as a computer-assisted personal interview and included a choice experiment involving cars with various fuel types. Applying a standard logit model, we show that alternative fuel availability influences choices positively, but its marginal utility diminishes with supply. Furthermore, we derive consumers’ marginal willingness-to-pay for an expanded service station network. The results suggest that a failure to expand the availability of alternative fuel stations represents a significant barrier to the widespread adoption of alternative-fuel vehicles.     

A model system for the assessment of the effects of car and fuel green taxes on CO2 emission

This study aims at developing a model system to examine the changes in the car market configuration, the life cycle CO₂ emission from automobile transport and the tax revenues due to different taxation policies. The model system specifically determines the effect of varying the weights of the tax components in the stages of a) car purchasing, b) car owning, and c) car using to the changes in the car class and age mix and the car users' driving pattern and behavior towards car class choice and decommissioning. Five sub-models comprise the model system, formulated using car ownership related data in Japan from 1980 to 1994. Performance tests conducted against the sub-models generally yielded encouraging results. The sensitivity analysis identified car usage tax as the most significant parameters in reducing CO₂. An increase in, ownership tax, on the other hand, significantly results to a shift to smaller cars, while the propensity to decommission and repurchase can be reduced by increasing the purchase tax and can be decreased by increasing the ownership tax. The model system was utilized to determine the impact of the 1989 tax reform and to forecast future scenarios using different taxation schemes. The model system is being further developed for possible future application in other countries.     

Analysis of parking cruising behaviour and parking location choice

ABSTRACT

This paper explores car drivers’ cruising behaviour and location choice for curb parking in areas with insufficient parking space based on a survey of car drivers in Beijing, China. Preliminary analysis of the data show that car drivers’ cruising behaviour is closely related to their parking duration and parking location. A multinomial probit (MNP) model is used to analyse cruising behaviour and the results show that the closer to the destination car drivers are, the more likely they choose to park on the curb. The adjacent locations are the basis of car drivers’ sequential parking decisions at different locations. The research results provide a better understanding of cruising behaviour for parking and recommendations for reducing cruising for parking. The provision of parking information can help regulate the parking demand distribution.     

Driving Forces behind the Growth of Per‐capita Car Driving Distance in the UK, 1970–2000

Abstract

Although per‐capita car trip distance (measured in passenger‐km) and car driving distance (measured in vehicle‐km) in the UK have kept increasing, their growth rates slowed considerably in the 1990s when compared with the 1970s and 1980s. The paper investigates the main driving forces behind the changes in car trip and car driving distances, and it examines the determining factors for the slow down of growth in the 1990s on the basis of the analysis of data from the National Travel Survey (1975/76, 1989/91, 1992/94, 1995/97 and 1999/2001). In particular, it emphasizes the significance of changes in car ownership levels as a key driving force and attempts to separate this ‘car ownership effect’ from other effects. The log‐mean Divisia index decomposition method is applied to measure the relative contribution of each effect. Separate analyses are undertaken according to trip purpose. Other underlying causes, such as changes in fuel price and road capacity, are also examined.     

Urban transport in Germany: providing feasible alternatives to the car

With the second highest level of car ownership in the world, and the third highest population density in Europe, Germany has adopted a range of policies to balance the many private benefits of car use with its serious social and environmental problems. In order to ‘tame’ the car, most German cities have implemented a twofold strategy of expanding and improving pedestrian, bicycling and public transport alternatives simultaneously with restricting car use and making it more expensive. That has increased political acceptability since the car‐restrictive measures are not perceived as mere punishment of car drivers. The results of this coordinated urban transport strategy have been impressive. Germany, as a whole, has managed to increase public transport use and to stabilize the car share of modal split. Some cities, of course, have been more successful than others, and this paper examines three of the most successful cities: Münster, Freiburg and Munich. In each of the cities, the percentage of travel by bicycling, walking and public transport has been raised over the past 20 years, while the car's share of modal split has fallen. This article documents the range of policies used to restrict car use, both in Germany as a whole, and in the three case‐study cities in particular. The key to success is found to be mutually reinforcing transport and land‐use policies. It is the combination of a whole set of coordinated policies that explains the dramatic success in changing travel behavior.     

A KBS application for market research advice in transport

This paper presents some results of a knowledge based system (KBS) development applied to market research (MR) issues in transport. This application represents a rule production approach to decisions associated with the definition of appropriate survey procedures for various operation‐management problems in a transport enterprise or agency. The basic idea is to provide an aid for the user (manager, student or practitioner), who is concerned with MR, but is not very familiar with this field or has some concerns over data‐gathering and the use of that information. It focuses on specific applications in the transport environment and gives the user some support in maintaining greater consistency in his (her) decisions.

The objective of this paper is to describe the system structure, to point out some important aspects and problems arising during its development and also to make some comments with respect to the further development of this and similar systems.