IWRAP MK Ⅱ软件在长江口水域船舶碰撞和搁浅风险评估中的应用

为更好地了解长江口水域船舶碰撞和搁浅风险,采用IWRAP MK Ⅱ软件对该水域的船舶碰撞和搁浅风险进行评估。评估结果显示:该水域船舶发生碰撞事故的频率为21.05起/a,发生搁浅事故的频率为2.298起/a,与该水域2010~2015年发生船舶碰撞和搁浅事故频率的平均值21.8起/a和1.8起/a吻合度较好。研究结果表明,该软件可用于评估港口水域船舶碰撞和搁浅风险,为评价水域船舶碰撞和搁浅风险提供了一种新途径。     

台湾海峡及附近水域海难事故的灰色关联分析

运用灰色关联系统分别分析了所有船舶和300 gt及以上的船舶在台湾海峡及附近水域中发生的海难事故,并对碰撞、触礁或搁浅、触碰、失火或爆炸、机械故障、倾斜或倾覆等六类海难事故,进行了灰色关联矩阵运算及分析。分析结果表明该水域海难事故以300 gt以下的小船所占比率较高,同时该水域海难事故类型以机械故障具较高关联性;当排除300 gt以下的船舶后,该水域海难事故类型则以碰撞具较高关联性。     

分析船舶在湛江港水域搁浅的成因及对策

本文通过对在湛江港水域船舶搁浅事故案例进行分析,探析船舶在湛江港水域搁浅的成因及对策,以利于能更有效地控制减少此类事故的发生及危害。     

对海峡两岸合作实施海上救助的构想

1.海峡两岸合作实施海上救助工作势在必行 1.1 台湾海峡是我国海上运输的重要航道,也是渔业生产的重要水域。海峡水域的船舶活动极为频繁,其数量和密度随着两岸的经济发展和直接通航的实现,必将进一步增加。 1.2 台湾海峡是著名的风浪区,气象和海况条件复杂,且经常遭受台风袭扰,对航行船舶危害较大,是海难事故的多发水域。如何趋利避害,减少和避免海难事故造成的生命财产损失,保障海峡水域船舶的安全,一直是海峡两岸航运界同仁共同关注和亟待解决的问题。     

岛礁区救援搁浅船舶

作者由于工作原因执行救援保障任务所在水域主要为南海水域,南海水域的特点是多岛礁浅滩,尤其是西沙与南沙水域.在岛礁救援中,大多数遇到的险情是船舶搁浅或触礁,在救助此类险情船舶时,由于搁浅船舶的类型不同,搁浅点地形的复杂性,涌浪、水流、潮汐及天气的变化,搁浅的情况需要经过系统的测量和探摸才能掌握,使救助搁浅或触礁船舶的操作...     

基于蜂窝单元的海上交通风险分析

传统的船舶交通风险分析是将研究水域作为一个整体来评估其风险状况的。基于蜂窝单元的船舶交通风险分析,把研究水域按一定标准划分为若干地理单元,将历史数据、数学模型以及专家学者的经验和判断有机地结合起来,用以评估每一地理单元船舶碰撞和搁浅事故的概率,其输出结果以地理分布的形式突出了高风险区域。相对于传统的风险分析,该理论更能够全面、准确地描述水域的风险状况,为采纳和实施正确的安全措施提供了强有力的支持。     

“SN NO.1”轮大堡礁搁浅事故剖析

2010年4月3日,“SN NO.1”轮在澳大利亚大堡礁海洋公园附近水域搁浅,受到世人的广泛关注.此文对事故发生的原因进行分析,并重申驾驶人员应履行的职责,旨在吸取事故教训,加强船舶安全管理,预防事故发生,确保船舶航行安全.     

船舶搁浅原因及应采取的对应措施

随着世界贸易的迅速发展,作为运输工具的船舶不仅在数量上,而且在吨位上都有很大的增加,使船舶密集程度增大,使受限水域(如港口,航道,狭水道)成为事故的多发地,其中搁浅就是这些海事的主要事故之一。搁浅不仅危害船舶和船员,而且对生态环境也有巨大的危害。     

船舶搁浅的应急处置

随着世界贸易的迅速发展,作为运输工具的船舶不仅在数量上,而且在吨位上都有很大的增加,造成船舶密集程度增大,使受限水域(如港口、航道、狭水道)成为事故的多发地,其中搁浅就是这些海事的主要事故之一。文章对造成搁浅的各因素,从人、船、环境的角度加以定量分析和研究,并对船舶的搁浅危险度做出预报,以期对船舶的航行安全作出贡献。     

船舶搁浅事故的防患与应急措施

随着海运事业的迅速发展,船舶的数量激增,船舶搁浅事故在海事中的比例达40%。为了减少船舶搁浅事故造成的损失以及预防船舶搁浅事故的发生,文章提出并探讨了船舶发生搁浅的原因,船舶搁浅应急措施,脱浅后的工作,船舶搁浅事故的预防措施。     

基于贝叶斯网络方法对船舶搁浅概率的研究

针对船舶航行安全的薄弱环节,在故障树分析船舶搁浅事故成因的基础上,运用贝叶斯网络对事件之间的多态性和逻辑性进行了研究。得到了事件的后验概率值,分析了导致事故发生的薄弱环节,推理得出最可能引起事故发生的事件组合,结果与统计资料一致,为提高船舶运营的安全和运营管理提供了科学依据。     

Generalized F distribution model with random parameters for estimating property damage cost in maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.     

基于CFD的内河船深浅水中操纵性预报

由于岸壁效应和浅水效应,内河船舶在限制水域作操纵运动时通常受到比在开阔水域中更大的水动力.这些水动力对船舶操纵性具有不利影响,有可能导致船舶碰撞或触底等海上事故.因此,为了在船舶设计阶段预报其操纵性能,考虑浅水效应和岸壁效应以准确计算内河船舶操纵运动水动力非常重要.本文基于CFD方法,通过对粘性绕流进行数值模拟,对长江中营运的三艘内河船舶的操纵运动水动力进行计算.首先,为了验证数值方法的可靠性,对标模KVLCC2纯横荡和纯首摇试验的水动力进行计算,并将计算结果与现有的试验数据进行对比.然后,对三艘内河船舶在不同水深下的静舵试验、纯横荡和纯首摇试验进行数值模拟,计算得到水动力及相应的线性水动力导数.最后,基于计算得到的水动力导数,获得Nomoto模型中的操纵性参数,对比分析三艘内河船舶在深浅水中的操纵性能.结果表明,本文方法可以揭示不同水深下三艘内河船舶的操纵性变化趋势.该方法可为船舶设计阶段内河船舶深浅水中的操纵性预报提供一种实用的工具.     

Analysis of structural crashworthiness of double-hull ships in collision and grounding

A conceptual design framework for collision and grounding analysis is proposed to evaluate the crashworthiness of double-hull structures. This work attempts to simplify the input parameters needed for the analysis, which can be considered as a step towards a design-oriented procedure against collision and grounding. Four typical collision and grounding scenarios are considered: (1) side structure struck by a bulbous bow, (2) side structure struck by a straight bow, (3) bottom raking, (4) bottom stranding. The analyses of these scenarios are based on statistical data of striking ship dimensions, velocities, collision angles and locations, as well as seabed shapes and sizes, grounding depth and location. The evaluation of the damage extent considers the 50- and 90-percentile values from the statistics of collision and grounding accidents. The external dynamics and internal mechanics are combined to analyse systematically the ship structural damage and energy absorption under accidental loadings.     

厦门湾附近水域船舶定线制的研究

论述了厦门湾附近水域船舶定线的目的。利用厦门海事局VTS中心的设备进行了连续3天的交通流实态观测及海上交通事故的统计分析,得到厦门湾附近水域的船舶交通特点,根据海上交通工程理论与方法,提出厦门湾附近水域船舶定线制的设计方案。     

浅析内河船舶碰撞事故的若干特性

文中提出了内河船舶碰撞事故所具有的一些基本特性，列举了大量具体数据、实例，从事实上进行了详细的分析，并结合水上交通碰撞事故某些个性从管理的基本原理出发加以探析。只有关注和研究船舶碰撞事故特性，才能减少或避免碰撞事故的发生。     

Investigation on structural performance predictions of double-bottom tankers during shoal grounding accidents

An investigation is carried out in this paper for the predictions of structural performance of double-bottom tankers during ship grounding over the “shoal” type seabed obstacles. Hong and Amdahl developed a simplified analytical model for the unstiffened double bottom. This method is carefully studied, verified and then used as the first stage of our prediction. The second stage is concerned with stiffeners since stiffeners are indispensable components for double-bottom tankers. A prevailing way to handle is to smear stiffeners onto their attached plating known as the smeared thickness method. However, the effective ratio in this method is dubious in such shoal grounding accidents. Proper values of this parameter are determined in stage two, and then together with the method in stage one, constitute a reliable and efficient tool for structural performance predictions of double-bottom structures in shoal grounding accidents.A double-bottom tanker is chosen as object for the case study. Finite element models of the hold both stiffened and unstiffened are created for numerical simulations using the LS_DYNA software. Simulation cases cover a wide range of slope angles of the indenter and indentations. Numerical results show that Hong and Amdahl's model in stage one is capable of predicting energy dissipation with high precision but poor accuracy for grounding resistances, and a possible reason may be the neglect of vertical resistance. The updated smeared method proposed in stage two is also proved to be capable of grasping major characteristics of stiffeners. Results and conclusions drawn from this paper can be conveniently applied for assessments of the performance of ship double-bottom structures during shoal sliding grounding scenarios, and will benefit the application of accidental limit state design concept in the ship design stage.     

Common patterns in aggregated accident analysis charts from human fatigue-related groundings and collisions at sea

Research has shown that there are potentially disastrous outcomes of human fatigue at sea. The conditions in which the seafarers have to operate are becoming more and more demanding. The study in this article attempts to aggregate accident charts derived from in-depth studies of human fatigue-related accidents to determine common patterns of interlinked fatigue factors. The accidents are analyzed by means of the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), which in the article has been modified for maritime accidents. The main fatigue factors identified are ‘shift work’, ‘irregular working hours’, ‘inadequate task allocation’, and ‘excessive demands’. The study reveals several differences between ship collision and grounding accidents and their corresponding fatigue factors. Human fatigue-related collision accidents are characterized by wrong/badly timed decisions, misconceptions, and poor communication between the vessels. Right before the collision the crew is often panicking and mistakes are easily made. In human fatigue-related groundings, the conditions are often monotonous and the navigating officer has either overlooked the upcoming seabed or simply fallen asleep. Safety climate issues are also identified as important contributors to human fatigue.     

考虑弹塑性土体作用的船舶搁浅损伤特性研究

船舶软搁浅是指船舶搁置在由较软粘土构成的海床或者在柔软的浅滩上的事故。航运业的发展与船舶的大型化趋势使船舶发生软搁浅的风险大大增加,研究船舶的软搁浅性能对船舶设计与制造具有重要意义。本文基于有限元分析软件ABAQUS,选取典型的软搁浅场景,以12,000DWT油船舱段结构为分析对象,研究舱段结构在搁浅过程中的变形、吸能、加速度响应等性能参数。通过系统分析不同速度对船体结构的搁浅性能的影响,全面分析其搁浅性能。本文的相关结论可以为分析船舶软搁浅事故及设计抗冲击舱段结构有一定指导作用。