Greenhouse effect,sea level rise,and coastal zone management

Abstract

Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century by a mechanism known as the greenhouse effect. Such a warming could cause sea level to rise two to five feet by expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers, and perhaps eventually causing polar glaciers to melt and slide into the oceans.

A rise in sea level of even three feet could cause substantial erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers. Fortunately, many of the adverse consequences can be avoided by taking timely measures in anticipation of sea level rise. Nevertheless, many coastal zone managers are reluctant to take these measures until the prospect of sea level rise becomes more certain.

This article examines the implications of future sea level rise and identifies anticipatory measures that may be appropriate today in spite of current uncertainties.     

Coastal erosion and sea level rise: Implications for ocean beach and San Francisco's westside transport project

Abstract

One of the consequences of sea level rise resulting from the greenhouse effect is increased coastal erosion. This article discusses a model of erosion that can be used to estimate the response of beaches to sea level rise. The model is applied to Ocean Beach, California, with particular attention to the consequences of accelerated erosion for the San Francisco Westside Sewer Transport. Results obtained show that erosion produced by accelerated sea level rise could cause substantial damage to the structure. Large expenditures on beach nourishment will be required to protect the transport and the recreational value of the beach.     

Vulnerability of Coastal Resort Cities to Mean Sea Level Rise in the Mexican Caribbean

We evaluated the potential economic impacts of increasing sea level rise (SLR) along the Mexican Caribbean where there are major gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling flooding duration and frequency associated to future ecological and economic impacts. We determined the negative economic impact of SLR on infrastructure in the largest urban centers (Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel) in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) that are considered the largest tourism “hot spots” (resort cities) in the country. The tourism industry in this coastal area injects >8 billion dollars year^?1 to the Mexican economy. Our conservative economic assessment regarding the impact of SLR, under a 1?m scenario for all coastal cities is $330 million USD. Further projections for worst scenarios (SLR >2 m) show a non-linear trend where the cost of inaction can reach up to $1.4 billion USD (2?m SLR scenario) and $2.3 billion USD (3?m SLR scenario). This potential loss of infrastructure, as construction cost, is staggering and represents a robust baseline to start evaluating with more detail future impacts of climate variability and change on the Mexican Caribbean coastline.     

Response of coastal zone management programs to sea level rise in the United States

Abstract

State coastal zone management programs are responding to the potential impacts of accelerated sea level rise through a wide range of activities and policies. This article provides a brief overview of the Coastal Zone Management Act and other federal laws that provide the basis for coastal state regulatory activities. It surveys the level of response to sea level rise by state coastal management programs in 24 marines coastal states, from formal recognition to implementation of policies addressing the issue. Individual state CZMP responses and policies that have been implemented or proposed are categorized. The adaptation of sea level rise to ongoing institutional objectives is discussed and policy constraints and trends are summarized.     

Resilience of Touristic Island Beaches Under Sea Level Rise: A Methodological Framework

This contribution addresses the need for a simple model for managers to employ when planning strategies for the management of touristic beaches under sea level rise. A methodological framework was developed and tested in two Aegean archipelago islands (Lesvos and Rhodes, Greece). The scheme can represent the status of touristic island beaches, based on easily obtained variables/indicators and projections of beach erosion/retreat under different scenarios of mean sea level rise (MSLR) and extreme events. Information on beach geomorphological characteristics, environmental setting, water quality, management, and services (such as those used in the “Blue Flag” classification) was collated/collected and beach erosion/retreat due to CV & C was estimated through suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. A Strength-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) framework was employed to assist in the selection of indicators and multicriteria analysis used to optimize indicator weights and rank beaches according to their sustainability under sea level rise. Implementation of the framework at the two islands has shown that: the majority of Lesvos and Rhodes beaches (82% of a total of 217 beaches and 58% of a total of 97 beaches, respectively) can be classified as beaches with no, or minimal, human interference, suggesting that under environmentally sound coastal management further touristic development might be afforded; there could be very significant effects of the sea level rise on the carrying and buffering capacities of the most developed (“Blue Flag”) beaches, with some expected even under conservative projections to be completely eroded by 2100, unless technical adaptation measures are taken; and using the proposed framework, touristic beaches can be rapidly ranked in terms of their resilience to sea level rise and their development potential, allowing prioritization of effective management responses.     

Land use implications of sea level rise: A case study at myrtle beach,South Carolina

Abstract

the prospect of global warming and consequent sea level rise will have important implications for coastal communities. this article examines the land use implications of alternate sea level rise scenarios on the city of myrtle beach, south carolina. current trends as well as high and low sea level rise scenarios are superimposed on the city's beach profile and near shore contours to estimate the type and value of land development likely to be impacted.

It is found that losses associated with accelerated sea level rise would be particularly high in the city's hotel district and that overall property loss could range from 21 to 60% of the city's total property value. to lessen these potential losses, coastal communities such as myrtle beach must choose among one of three policy options including: (1) barricade the beach, (2) raise the land, and (3) implement a strategic retreat. specific alternatives within each of these options are explored in turn. the article concludes that successful development plans will incorporate ground rules sensitive to and consistent with dynamic coastal processes.     

Decadal sea level trends in the Bay of Biscay from tide gauges, GPS and TOPEX

Sea level time series derived from TOPEX altimeter and from tide gauge measurements in the Bay of Biscay (Eastern North Atlantic Ocean) are used to investigate the regional sea level rise. Altimetry sea level anomalies are computed from TOPEX measurements and resampled into fixed along track bins in order to obtain consistent records and to approach as close as possible to the coast. Tidal corrections are critical in the estimation of sea level trends; therefore an additional analysis has been carried out in order to identify and correct for residual tidal signals. The obtained mean sea level rise in the region is + 3.09 ± 0.21 mm/year over the period 1993–2002. Tide gauges have been corrected for vertical land motions by means of collocated GPS measurements. GPS-corrected tide gauges and nearby altimetry trends are found to be statistically consistent. The relationship with the atmospheric forcing is also investigated revealing that 15% of this sea level rise is attributed to the atmospheric pressure effects.     

Assessment of Vulnerability and Integrated Management of Coastal Dunes in Veracruz,Mexico

Dune systems are essential to the ecological balance and sediment inputs of coastal environments and they provide numerous environmental services; however, their existence is threatened by natural and human stressors that contribute to their degradation. Future impacts are expected to be greater because of global climate change in association with further rises in sea level. Beaches and dune systems occupy large areas along the coastline of the state of Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico. The aim of this study is to establish the intrinsic vulnerability of nine dune fields in Veracruz to current and future impacts and to assess their integrated management status. These dune–beach systems are more vulnerable to the effects of economic activities and land use change than to those induced by natural forces. Results show that six of these dune systems have medium vulnerability and an ecological conservation policy should be adopted; the other three, with high or very high vulnerability, are candidates for a restoration policy.     

Crew in the West Coast Groundfish Catch Share Program: Changes in Compensation and Job Satisfaction

Abstract

Catch share programs can have far-reaching effects on coastal communities and the people that rely on fishing income, including crew members. Analysis of management actions affecting crew wages and well-being is often limited due to a dearth of available data. We examine crew-related outcomes during the first six years of the West Coast Groundfish Trawl Catch Share Program using two unique datasets – a mandatory economic survey and a voluntary social science study. We find that impacts on crew compensation differ from other catch share programs due to prior conditions of the fishery and also vary by the target species within the program. The median number of crew positions per vessel increased slightly, annual crew days decreased, and crew wage as a percentage of revenue was nearly unchanged, even with the introduction of new costs. Median daily crew compensation increased from $514 per day to $776 after implementation of catch shares and annual compensation increased from $33 thousand to $39 thousand. Many crew members expressed a lack of support for the program and job satisfaction did not rise with increased wages and fewer days at sea, indicating that job satisfaction is likely influenced by more than compensation and effort.     

Management considerations for accreting shorelines

Abstract

Natural coastal accretion in the United States occurs at river mouths, spits across embayments, inlets, capes and cuspate forelands, and pocket beaches. Human‐induced accretion occurs updrift of groins and jetties, landward of breakwaters, and in locations which are artificially nourished. Coastal accretion is usually temporary (years to tens of years). Erosion may occur due to deflection of streams and tidal current channels or to changes in sea level, weather patterns, or sediment budgets. A focus on ownership disputes or use of accreted land draws attention away from the long‐term problem of the development of land which may be subject to future erosion. Control mechanisms should be in place to direct development on accreting shorelines to make more effective use of the resource.     

Vulnerability of Caribbean Island Cemeteries to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that rising seas by the end of this century will increase the severity of coastal flooding and erosion. The Caribbean region is home to many small islands that are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Much of the literature examining impacts of sea level rise in the Caribbean focuses on ecosystems, infrastructure, and recreation. Few studies have examined how sea level rise will impact historic and culturally important places. In an effort to address this research gap, geographic information systems and crowd-sourced, georeferenced photographs were used to build a first-of-its-kind database of 542 Caribbean small island cemeteries. Vulnerable cemeteries were then identified based upon elevation, proximity to the ocean, and the coastal profile. Over one-fifth of the cemeteries surveyed are within 100 m of the coast. The highest concentrations of vulnerable cemeteries are on flat islands such as the Cayman Islands. Yet, some mountainous islands such as Saint Martin also have potentially vulnerable cemeteries. These findings suggest that the bereaved, cemetery managers, and managers of coastal areas that have cemeteries may have additional considerations when making long-term decisions about where and how to bury the deceased.     

Israel's coastal program: Resource protection through management of land use

Abstract

Presently, much of Israel's 190‐kilometer‐long Mediterranean coast is either unoccupied, devoted to unsuitable uses, or is in use by activities which have no special need to be near the water's edge. This has resulted from years of lack of appreciation by policy‐makers of the coast as a valuable resource, of national development policies that directed attention to other regions, and of the relatively limited demand for coastal recreation.

In the last decade the importance of these factors has diminished. In turn, there is now mounting pressure for the development of coastal land. Increasingly, rising standards of living with a greater demand for recreational facilities, the growth of tourism as a major industry, and demands of the environmental lobby for conservation of part of the coastal land are factors bound to cause intensive change along the coast and to affect the quality of its resources. These trends have brought about public intervention in deciding the future of the coast. This paper reviews and analyzes Israel's coastal policy and its resource management programs, and also discusses the potential challenges to their full implementation.

Three types of programs were suggested as the main management tools: a coastal research and development effort, national coastal land use planning and pollution prevention, and monitoring and control programs. Major objectives of the programs were to be achieved through land use controls. Consequently, an important role is given in the development and implementation of the coastal program to agencies responsible for the management of physical land use planning and development.

Successful implementation of the management program, however, will depend on the ability of its administrators to coordinate the actions of many interests, on success in changing attitudes among decision‐makers as to the value of the coast, and on widening support for coastal resource conservation among a presently uninvolved public.     

Federal‐state revenue sharing and resource management under outer continental shelf lands act section 8(g)

Abstract

Section 8(g) was added to the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA) in 1978. It mandated sharing of the revenues from tracts that included oil and gas pools underlying the federal‐state boundary 3 miles offshore. Revenues were to be split based on agreements negotiated by the secretary of Interior and the relevant coastal state governor or “fair and equitable”; divisions made by the federal district courts. Only one agreement was concluded. Texas and Louisiana sued to force distribution of their shares of $6.1 billion in 8(g) funds held in escrow. In 1986 Congress divided the escrowed 8(g) revenues approximately 27 percent to the adjacent states and 73 percent to the federal government and legislated the same split for all future 8(g) revenues. This article examines the complex issues that section 8(g), as amended, raises for the management of federal and state submerged lands. Cooperative federal‐state approaches to implementing amended section 8(g) are reviewed. Section 8(g)'s broader implications as the only federal‐state ocean resource, revenue‐sharing mechanism currently in place also are addressed.     

Classification of Beach Erosion Vulnerability on the Yucatan Coast

Beach erosion can have important socioeconomic and environmental consequences, particularly in tropical regions where tourism is a significant source of income. Although caused by natural processes, erosion is often aggravated by disorderly anthropogenic modification of the coast and extreme events. In Yucatan, Mexico, increasing urban development and deficient coastal management strategies as well as hurricanes have affected beach stability. This has highlighted the need for adequate coastal planning and policies that ensure the protection of key coastal ecosystems, such as beaches and sand dunes. To address this, a methodology to classify the coast according to its vulnerability is presented in this work. This methodology assumes that morphological features are indicators of beach evolution and the processes driving it and that these can be associated with different levels of vulnerability. The features considered are beach width, dune vegetation, anthropogenic pressure, and shoreline orientation, which were analyzed through aerial images and a multicriteria evaluation. It was observed that the most vulnerable areas are found near the most developed parts of the coast, where narrow beaches with little dune vegetation dominate. It is expected that this index will be of use to coastal planners and decision makers, particularly in the identification of critical zones.     

GIS-Based Coastal Behavior Modeling and Simulation of Potential Land and Property Loss: Implications of Sea-Level Rise at Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach,Sydney (Australia)

Rising sea level potentially poses a threat to many coastal areas, thereby possibly affecting coastal environments, including human assets. Taking into account the precau--tionary principle demanded at the Framework Convention for Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, coastal managers and planners are required to evaluate the possibility of both physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise. However, long-term and cost-intensive data capture is often not affordable for a first estimation of general trends. To determine physical and economic impacts on a spatial scale of less than 10 km, a rapid and low-cost method is required. A Geographic Information System (GIS), in combination with readily available data and two coastal behaviour models (the Bruun-GIS Model and the Aggradation Model) was applied to simulate shoreline recession caused by a rise in sea level. In addition, the potential impacts of a 50-year design storm were considered in conjunction with sea-level rise. The monetary vulnerability was assessed and combined with the simulated recession rates. This procedure provides a first estimate on the potential risk a locality (here Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach) may face due to the impacts of sea-level rise and/or coastal storms. Overall, the modelling outcome suggests that long-term erosion problems associated with rising sea level are less significant in comparison with those impacts associated with short-term coastal storm events for Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach.     

State vs. national interests in an expanded territorial sea

Abstract

The recently adopted Law of the Sea (LOS) Convention contains a provision allowing coastal nations to adopt 12‐mile territorial seas. Already 104 nations (of a total of 137 coastal nations) have claimed territorial seas of 12 miles or wider. The paper discusses the factors which, in the opinion of the authors, could cause the United States to broaden its territorial sea from the present 3 miles to 12 miles within the next half‐dozen years or so. The state‐federal ocean use and resource management issues that will be raised by such a move are reviewed and options for dealing with the jurisdictional issues are developed. Given the political and economic volatility of these issues and their complexity, the use of a broadly representative and well‐staffed study commission to formulate a course of action is suggested.     

Norwegian North Sea action programme: Analysis of measures to reduce nutrient inputs

According to the terms of the Ministerial Declaration on the Protection of the North Sea, input of the nutrients phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) to the coast from the Norwegian‐Swedish border to Lindesnes should be reduced by about 50% between 1985 and 1995. The State Pollution Control Authority (SFT) has analyzed how Norway can achieve this reduction in the most cost‐effective way and at the same time achieve the greatest possible improvement in water quality along the Norwegian coast and in its watercourses.

Two alternative sets of measures were analyzed, both of which would meet the requirements of the Declaration. The lowest‐cost alternative would have average annual costs of about NKr 930 million (U.S.S150 million), and investments of about NKr 4000 million (U.S. $643 million). However, this set of measures would not take account of local water quality, and measures would therefore not always be introduced where the need is most pressing. SFT proposed that an alternative set of measures be implemented, almost all of which would also help to achieve local goals for water quality. This alternative will have annual costs of about NKr 980 million (U.S.$158 million), and investments of about NKr 4100 million (U.S.$659 million).     

海塘防冲小沉井群的施工技术

小沉井底脚防冲技术作为钱塘江海塘底脚防护的新技术,在标准海塘建设中得到了大量应用。但钱塘江因历年抢险而形成的广泛分布于沿岸的块石层成为施工的首要难点,严重制约小沉井的施工进度和施工质量。根据施工实践,就如何采取合理的施工措施,有效解决施工难点进行探讨。     

Opportunities for a state‐federal partnership in an expanded territorial sea

Abstract

The United States currently has a 3‐mile territorial sea limit which is under the jurisdiction of coastal states. In the event the United States joins with other countries in adopting a 12‐mile territorial sea, Congress may consider extending state jurisdiction to 12 miles. It may be in the best interest of coastal states to oppose extension and instead support a strengthened federal‐state ocean management regime which disregards boundary lines and is based on the sharing of outer continental shelf leasing revenues along with a guaranteed role for coastal states in federal decision‐making.     

极地破冰船动稳性敏感度分析

船舶动稳性性能对于确保恶劣海况下的航行安全具有重要意义。我国的极地破冰船需要经过较长航程的敞水航行才能顺利到达极地冰区,为了评估极地破冰船型在敞水中动稳性的安全水平并为未来新船型的开发积累经验,采用国际海事组织(IMO)第二代完整稳性衡准中的薄弱性衡准方法对两个不同尺度的概念设计方案分别开展了动稳性敏感性评估。研究表明,现有概念设计方案对于参数横摇和过度加速度失效模式表现出了一定的敏感性。通过分析诱发敏感性的船型设计参数,指出了未来开展进一步优化研究的方向。