Modelling port choice in an uncertain environment

Port choice is an important issue to be investigated to ensure the effective integration of container supply chains and the sustainable development of regional economy. The selection of appropriate ports to facilitate shipping activities and international trade is crucial for many stakeholders, including shipping lines, port administrators, cargo shippers and national governments. The task is essentially a process of multiple criterion decision-making (MCDM) under uncertainty, requiring analysts to derive rational decisions from uncertain and incomplete data related to different quantitative and qualitative determinants. This paper aims at proposing a new conceptual port choice method by explaining the role fuzzy logic in evidential reasoning in a complementary way, in which various forms of raw data (either objective or subjective) collected to evaluate port performance can first be converted into and presented as fuzzy grades defined using linguistics terms with degrees of belief (DoBs) and second be combined using evidential reasoning to produce a port choice preference score. The method is applied to analyse the selection of major Northeast Asian (NEA) container ports from a shipping line’s perspective. The outcome, a port choice preference score, is calculated using evidential reasoning to directly synthesize the true estimation of the port with respect to each criterion and therefore, unlike a relative ranking index, keeps the ‘goodness’ of port evaluation, capable of benchmarking a specific port’s performance and monitoring the increase of its competitiveness in a longitude study with respect to an individual criterion or all the criteria as a whole.     

Heterogeneous archaeal communities in the particle-rich environment of an arctic shelf ecosystem

We evaluated the phylogenetic diversity of particle-associated and free-living archaeal assemblages from the Mackenzie River and Beaufort Sea in the western Canadian Arctic. The physico-chemical characteristics of the water separated the sampling sites into three groups: riverine, coastal and marine water, which had strikingly different archaeal communities. The riverine water was characterised by the presence of Euryarchaeota mainly belonging to the LDS and RC-V clusters. The coastal water was also dominated by Euryarchaeota but they were mostly affiliated to Group II.a. The marine waters contained most exclusively Crenarchaeota belonging to the Marine Group I.1a. The results suggest that Euryarchaeota in the coastal surface layer are associated with particle-rich waters, while Crenarchaeota are more characteristic of Arctic Ocean waters that have been less influenced by riverine inputs. The particle-associated communities were similar to the free-living ones at the riverine and marine sites but differed from each other at the coastal site in terms of the presence or absence of some taxonomic groups in one of the fractions, or differences in the proportion of the phylogenetic groups. However, there was no specific archaeal group that was exclusively restricted to the free-living or particle fraction, and the diversity of the particle-associated archaeal assemblages did not significantly differ from the diversity of the free-living communities.     

苏丹红海沿岸珊瑚岩土层地基承载力探讨

珊瑚岩土层是一种主要分布于南、北回归线热带海洋中的特殊岩土类型,由造礁珊瑚群体死亡后聚集的沉积建造,其具有多孔性、脆性。同时,珊瑚岩土层在分布上具有软硬交替的规律。通过分析苏丹红海沿岸的珊瑚岩土层的分布规律及工程特性,探讨该地区的珊瑚岩土层地基承载力的取值问题。     

Biological effects of dilution of Dead Sea brine with seawater: implications for the planning of the Red Sea–Dead Sea “Peace Conduit”

The Dead Sea is a severely disturbed ecosystem. Its water level has been decreasing at a rate of nearly 1 m per year during the last decade due to anthropogenic intervention in its water balance. Since the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan was established in 1994, a proposal for the construction of a water carrier, the “Peace Conduit,” between the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea) and the Dead Sea is being investigated. This water carrier is intended to mitigate damaging processes that currently occur in the Dead Sea and its surrounding area. The difference in elevation of about 416 m could be exploited for seawater desalination by reverse osmosis. To examine the possible effects of the mixing of Dead Sea brines with seawater and seawater concentrates on the Dead Sea as an ecosystem, we have set up simulation experiments under field conditions in experimental ponds at Sedom, in which Dead Sea water was diluted with Red Sea water. The main components of the Dead Sea biota are the unicellular green alga Dunaliella and several types of red halophilic Archaea. Phosphate is the limiting inorganic nutrient. Massive Dunaliella blooms developed, accompanied by dense communities of red halophilic Archaea, in some of the experimental ponds, imparting a brown-red coloration to the brines. The extent of biological development depended on the extent of dilution and on phosphate availability. The results of the simulation experiments show that biological phenomena and their impact on the Dead Sea ecosystem should be taken into consideration during the planning of the “Peace Conduit.”     

Variations in ectoenzymatic hydrolytic activity in an oligotrophic environment (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, W Mediterranean)

The variations in the expression of two hydrolytic ectoenzymes (leucine aminopeptidase – LA – and β glucosidase — BG) were studied in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea during spring 2004. This area is characterised by a complex morphology and hydrodynamism, which generate significant differences between different sectors, particularly in the 0–100 m layer. However, the area generally exhibits oligotrophic features such as low autotrophic pigment and organic matter concentrations and a higher bacterial biomass than the phytoplanktonic one. Despite this general bottom-up pressure, adaptations by the microbial consumers were indicated by the ectoenzymatic activities and by the relationships between the enzymes, their organic substrates and their producers (namely the bacteria). In particular, bacteria were able to exploit the inorganic N supply (nitrite + nitrate provided by irregular intrusions of intermediate waters) to escape the bottom-up limitation and produce enzymes such as BG devoted to the degradation of cellulose remnants and, therefore, also able to take advantage on this refractory organic matter. In the 200–800 m layer, where trophic limitation was strong due to the low values of potentially-labile organic matter (namely proteins), the peculiar hydrodynamism led to the formation of nepheloid layers rich in organic matter, which provided the bacteria with substrates and allowed the development of a significant correlation between LA activity and its own organic substrate. Furthermore, a reduction of the bottom-up pressure was also indicated by a higher mean bacteria cell size in the entire water column of the central and eastern sectors, and a significantly increased expression of BG related to the increase in the cell size.The ectoenzymatic activities, therefore, suggested that the southern Tyrrhenian Sea should be considered as a mosaic of subsystems, where the peculiar hydrological features stimulate bacterial adaptations and enhance the channelling of energy embedded in refractory materials into the food web.     

Regional Ocean Governance in China: An Appraisal of the Clean Bohai Sea Program

In 2001 China embarked on an ambitious program to improve water quality through creation of the Clean Bohai Sea Program (CBSP). It is the first regional ocean governance program in China. The joint conference of central and local government units directed CBSP under the leadership of the State Environment Protection Administration. To meet the environmental objectives established by the joint conference local governments must pay for the program and operate it, but to date they have not been able to fully fund the effort. Although data indicate a decline of polluted discharges to the Bohai, one tabulation shows that the area of the sea that is polluted has increased each year from 2001 to 2005. Future enhancement of CBSP depends on revising incentives to better link local environmental programs and development, establishing funding mechanisms to equitably spread costs throughout watersheds, and creating comprehensive monitoring programs to better appraise program results.     

Hydrodynamic comparison of a semi-submersible, TLP, and Spar: Numerical study in the South China Sea environment

The South China Sea contains tremendous oil and gas resources in deepwater areas. However, one of the keys for deepwater exploration, the investigation of deepwater floating platforms, is very inadequate. In this paper, the authors studied and compared the hydrodynamics and global motion behaviors of typical deepwater platforms in the South China Sea environment. The hydrodynamic models of three main types of floating platforms, e.g. the Semi-submersible, tension leg platform (TLP), and Truss Spar, which could potentially be utilized in the South China Sea, were established by using the 3-D potential theory. Additionally, some important considerations which significantly influence the hydrodynamics were given. The RAOs in frequency domains as well as global motions in time domains under time-varying wind, random waves, and current in 100-y, 10-y, and 1-y return period environment conditions were predicted, compared, and analyzed. The results indicate that the heave and especially the pitch motion of the TLP are favorable. The heave response of the Truss Spar is perfect and comparable with that of the TLP when the peak period of random waves is low. However, the pitch motion of Truss Spar is extraordinarily larger than that of Semi-submersible and TLP.     

港口通航环境对船舶航行安全的影响分析及评价

港口通航环境是发展航运所依托的重要资源之一。为了预防和减少海难事故的发生,降低港口船舶航行的危险程度,除了提高操船者的素质、船舶性能,还需要改善船舶通航环境。从水文气象因素、港口条件因素、航道条件因素、交通因素、水上水下施工作业5个方面对船舶通航安全的影响进行了分析,论述了港口通航环境安全评价的主要内容,提出了改善通航环境的治理对策。     

Material transport from the nearshore to the basinal environment in the southern Baltic Sea: I. Processes and mass estimates

Processes involved in erosion, transport and deposition of cohesive materials are studied in a transect from shallow (16 m) to deep (47 m) water of the SW Baltic Sea. The wave- and current-induced energy input to the seabed in shallow water is high with strong variability and suspended matter concentrations may double within a few hours. Primary settling fluxes (from sedimentation traps) are less than 10 g m⁻² day⁻¹, whereas resuspension fluxes (evaluated from sedimentation flux gradients) are 15–20 times higher and the residence time for suspended matter in the water column is 1–2 days. Settling velocities of aggregates are on average six times higher than for individual particles resulting in an enhanced downward transport of organic matter. Wave-induced resuspension (four to six times per month) takes place with higher shear stresses on the bottom than current-induced resuspension (three to five times per month). The short residence time in the water column and the frequent resuspension events provide a fast operating benthic–pelagic coupling. Due to the high-energy input, the shallow water areas are nondepositional on time scales longer than 1–2 weeks. The sediment is sand partly covered by a thin fluff layer during low-energy periods. The presence of the fluff layer keeps the resuspension threshold very low (<0.023 N m⁻²) throughout the year. Evaluated from 3-D sediment transport modeling, transport from shallow to deep water is episodic. The net main directions are towards the Arkona Basin (5.5×10⁵ t per year) and the Bornholm Basin (3.7×10⁵ t per year). Energy input to the bottom in deep water is low and takes place much less frequently. Wave-induced resuspension occurs on average once per month. Residence time of particles (based on radioactive isotopes) in the water column is half a year and the sediment accumulation rate is 2.2 mm year⁻¹ in the Arkona Basin.     

Biochemical composition of marine sediment from the eastern Weddell Sea (Antarctica): High nutritive value in a high benthic-biomass environment

Within the SCAR's international EASIZ programme, as part of the benthic–pelagic coupling experiment, grain size and organic matter contents in marine surface sediment were measured. Samples were taken during the austral autumn of 2000 from 3 regions in the eastern Weddell Sea: Kapp Norvegia, Four Seasons Bank, and Austasen.In general, sediments were fine sand with a grain size fraction < 200 μm representing more than 40% of the total weight. The sediments from Four Seasons Bank (64 to 107 m depth) were coarser than those from Austasen and Kapp Norvegia (209 to 480 m depth), presumably due to winnowing of fine sediment at shallow depths. Organic carbon (OC) content ranged from 0.25% to 1.2% and constituted 10% to 97% of the total carbon. The samples from Kapp Norvegia presented the highest OC values. Overall, protein (PRT), lipid (LPD), and carbohydrate (CHO) contents were similar to those in sediment from cold regions (e.g., the North Atlantic and the Ross Sea) but higher than those in sediment from other Antarctic and more septentrional regions (e.g., the Ross Sea and the Mediterranean). The difference within the Antarctic is explained through the local conditions in Terra Nova Bay and Kapp Norvegia. In the Antarctic, PRT and LPD carbon were the main contributors to the biopolymeric carbon (BPC). In the eastern Weddell Sea shelf, the BPC accounted for more than 90% of the OC in most of the samples. More than 82% of the total PRT, LPD, and CHO were present in the fraction < 200 μm. This work remarks the existence of sediments with a high nutritional value persistent several weeks after the spring–summer pulse of fresh organic matter. It is also highlighted the high potential availability of these sediments (due to its grain size) for the benthic communities inhabiting this high-latitude continental shelf.     

波浪环境下潜艇近水面操纵特性仿真分析

为研究波浪环境下潜艇近水面的操纵特性特别是垂直面的深度控制问题,基于海勒莫公式和势流理论分别计算近水面一阶波浪力和二阶波浪力,以模型潜艇为研究对象,将波浪力计算模型融入潜艇垂直面非线性操纵运动方程,进而对波浪环境下潜艇近水面操纵运动特性进行仿真研究,分析潜艇在不同有义波高、航速和初始潜深条件下的垂直面潜浮运动响应规律和...     

Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

Seasonal variability in sea surface oceanographic conditions in the Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean): an overview

Seasonal variability and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperatures (SST) and salinities (SSS) are reviewed, in relation to the prevailing climatological conditions, heat fluxes, water budget and general water circulation patterns. Within this context, consideration is given to: sea surface temperatures; air temperatures; precipitation; evaporation; wind speeds and directions; freshwater (mainly riverine) discharges throughout the Aegean; and the exchange of water masses with the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean Sea. The investigation of satellite images, covering a 6-yr period (1988–1994), has enabled a synthesis of the monthly sea surface thermal distribution to be established.The climate of the Aegean Sea is characterised by annual air temperatures of 16–19.5°C, precipitation of about 500 mm yr⁻¹ and evaporation of some 4 mm d⁻¹. The Aegean has a negative heat budget (approximately −25 W m⁻²) and positive water balance (+ 1.0 m yr⁻¹), when inflow from the Black Sea is considered. During the summer, the (northerly) Etesians are the dominant winds over the Sea.Mean monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) vary from 8°C in the north during winter, up to 26°C in the south during summer. SST depends mainly upon air temperature; there is a month's delay between the former and latter maxima. The sea surface salinity (SSS) varies also spatially and seasonally, ranging from less than 31 psu, in the north, to more than 39 psu, in the southeast; lower values (< 25 psu) occur adjacent to the river mouths. SSSs present their maximum differences during summer, whilst during winter and autumn the distribution of SSS is more uniform. The overall spatial SST and SSS distribution pattern is controlled by: distribution of the (colder) Black Sea Waters; advection of the (warmer) Levantine Waters, from the southeastern part of the Aegean; upwelling and downwelling; and, to a lesser extent, but locally important, freshwater riverine inflows.     

The Mercator global ocean operational analysis system: Assessment and validation of an 11-year reanalysis

This paper presents Prototype Système 2 Global (PSY2G), the first Mercator global Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to assimilate along-track sea level anomaly (SLA) satellite data. Based on a coarse resolution ocean model, this system was developed mainly for climatic purposes and will provide, for example, initial oceanic states for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal predictions. It has been operational since 3 September 2003 and produces an analysis and a two-week forecast for the global ocean every week. The PSY2G system uses an incremental assimilation scheme based on the Cooper and Haines [Cooper, M., Haines, K., 1996. Data assimilation with water property conservation. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 1059-1077.] lifting–lowering of isopycnals. The SLA increment is obtained using an optimal interpolation method then the correction is partitioned into baroclinic and barotropic contributions. The baroclinic ocean state correction consists of temperature, salinity and geostrophic velocity increments and the barotropic correction is a barotropic velocity increment. A reanalysis (1993–2003) was carried out that enabled the PSY2G system to perform its first operational cycle. All available SLA data sets (TOPEX/Poséïdon, ERS2, Geosat-Follow-On, Jason1 and Envisat) were assimilated for the 1993–2003 period. The major objective of this study is to assess the reanalysis from both an assimilation and a thermodynamic point of view in order to evaluate its realism, especially in the tropical band which is a key region for climatic studies. Although the system is also able to deliver forecasts, we have mainly focused on analysis. These results are useful because they give an a priori estimation of the qualities and capabilities of the operational ocean analysis system that has been implemented. In particular, the reanalysis identifies some regional biases in sea level variability such as near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and in the Norwegian Sea (generally less than 1 cm) with a small seasonal cycle. This is attributed to changes in mean circulation and vertical stratification caused by the assimilation methodology. But the model's low resolution, inaccurate physical parameterisations (especially for ocean–ice interactions) and surface atmospheric forcing also contribute to the occurrence of the SLA biases. A detailed analysis of the thermohaline structure of the ocean reveals that the isopycnal lifting–lowering tends to diffuse vertically the main thermocline. The impact on temperature is that the surface layer (0–200 m) becomes cooler whereas in deeper waters (from 500 to 1500 m), the ocean becomes slightly warmer. This is particularly true in the tropics, between 30°N and 30°S. However it can be demonstrated that the assimilation improves the variability in both surface currents and sub-surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.     

基于模糊神经网络的复杂环境下军用集装箱最优运输方案选择

在信息化战争时代,后勤保障系统也常常是敌人重点打击的对象之一。合理选择运输方案,有效防御敌人的打击,降低运输成本,对顺利完成保障任务具有重要意义。综合考虑战争对运输保障的要求和战场环境对运输效能的影响,构建了军用集装箱运输效能评价指标体系,针对战争条件下指标权重难以确定的特点,提出了一种权值获取方法,并基于模糊神经网络给出了最优运输方案的选择方法。通过将指标参数模糊处理形成特征向量作为输入,以综合评价值作为期望输出,对网络进行训练,对多个路径方案进行评价,取得了良好的效果。     

PMV热舒适性模型在船舶舱室热环境评价中的应用

将热舒适性理论研究与实际船舶舱室环境的实验和调查相结合,探索将普通建筑热环境评价上应用较为广泛的PMV热舒适性模型扩展到船舶舱室的热环境评价中.通过对实船热环境的系统性测试和对实验对象——船员对热环境的主观评价的分析统计以及船员对船舶舱室内热环境的满意度调查,探讨了PMV热舒适性模型在船舶舱室热环境评价中的适用性,并给出了针对不同的活动状态下修正后的PMV*方程,该方程能体现大部分船员在微小环境内的热感觉以及客观评价热环境控制效果.     

Importance of ocean circulation in ecological modeling: An example from the North Sea

There is an increasing number of ecological models for the North Sea around. Skogen and Moll (2000) [Skogen, M.D., Moll, A. 2000. Interannual variability of the North Sea primary production: comparison from two model studies. Continental Shelf Research 20 (2), 129–151] compared the interannual variability of the North Sea primary production using two state-of-the-art ecological models, NORWECOM and ECOHAM1. Their conclusion was that the two models agreed on an annual mean primary production, its variability and the timing and size of the peak production. On the other hand, there was a low (even negative dependent of area) correlation in the production in different years between the two models.In the present work, these conclusions are brought further. To try to better understand the observed differences between the two models, the two ecological models are run in an identical physical setting. With such a set-up also the interannual variability between the two models is in agreement, and it is concluded that the single most important factor for a reliable modeling of phytoplankton and nutrient distributions and transports within the North Sea is a proper physical model.     

Analysis of Coastal Wetland Changes Using the “DPSIR” Model: A Case Study in Xiamen,China

Over the past several decades, human activities have had significant impacts on coastal wetlands worldwide. Here, using a model of “Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR)” and data collected from coastal wetlands in Xiamen, China, we have analyzed temporal changes in regional coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function from 1950 through 2005. The study period was divided into four parts for comparative analysis: pre-1980s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000 to present. Our results show that anthropogenic drivers of coastal wetland degradation in this region have increased substantially since 1950, and that this is correlated with a decline in coastal wetland function over the same period.     

Economic feasibility of an NSR/SCR-combined container service on the Asia-Europe lane: a new approach dynamically considering sea ice extent

The trend towards global warming and the rapid decline in the extent of summer Arctic sea ice over recent years has increased the feasibility of international Arctic shipping. In this study we propose a seasonal NSR (North Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping service linking Shanghai and Rotterdam, using the Northern Sea Route during the economical navigable window but using the traditional Suez Canal Route at other times. Different from the previous literatures, this paper dynamically considers the sea ice extent in the model, which is more reasonable for the assessment of Arctic container shipping, because fuel consumption is highly related to ship speed, while ship speed is determined by the relative distances of ice-covered and ice-free route stages. A new approach is developed to predict the time points at which the ship enters and exits the ice-covered stage, given that both the ship position and the extent of sea ice are constantly changing. The results show that the NSR/SCR-combined Arctic container service can be more economical than the SCR, given lower NSR tariffs.     

Mature hub ports in the free trade environment,the way forward from a global supply chain perspective: an Asian case

Asia-Pacific countries with divergent economic and political backgrounds developed a regime of bilateral free trade agreements in response to globalization. Challenged by the 1997 and 2008 financial crises, this Asian trade regime has remained intact, although the most powerful stakeholders have changed positions, as indicated by the strong emergence of China in the past decade. Efforts of key trading partners to tackle non-tariff barriers (e.g., rule of origin and customs formalities) in the region have yielded little progress thus far. Instead of aiming at a regional consensus on non-tariff barriers by all member states, a global supply chain (GSC) approach is recommended. Mature hub ports at strategic locations with advanced institutional measures could set up international trade facilitation centers co-locating multinational customs formalities. This GSC approach may also be adopted to construct a GSC hub development model that explains the transformation of hub ports.