Influence of model domain size,wind directions and Ekman transport on storm surge development inside the Chesapeake Bay: A case study of extratropical cyclone Ernesto, 2006

The Chesapeake Bay is vulnerable to severe flooding caused by hurricanes and strong Northeasters. A 3D storm surge model of the Chesapeake Bay is developed for studying the impact of model domain size, wind directions and Ekman transport on the storm surge in the Chesapeake Bay. The model encompasses the Chesapeake Bay and the US East Coast shelf to reduce the influence of model domain size on surge prediction inside the Chesapeake Bay and to account for both local and remote wind effects. This study used 3D model experiments, with respect to different wind directions, to diagnose the relative influences of the local and remote wind effects and Ekman transport on spatial surge distribution during storm events. The model results confirmed that spatial surge distribution can be well explained by the superposition of two distinct physically driven mechanisms during a storm event: incoming surge wave caused by remote effects and local wind forcings. A large model domain is a necessity for predicting storm surge accurately inside the Chesapeake Bay. The model results suggest that the interactions of the incoming surge propagating into the Bay and the local wind forcing from N and NE directions result in an enhanced setup in the lower to middle portions of the Bay, whereas the superposition of incoming surge and the local wind forcing from S and SE directions enhance the surge in the upper Bay region. A combined northwesterly wind over the middle to upper portions of the Bay and southwesterly wind over the lower Bay can cause a large setdown throughout the entire Bay. The Ekman setup along the coast contributes significantly to the water level variations during storm events. It enhances (reduces) surge inside the Bay under the wind forcings from N and NE (SW, S, and SE) directions.     

Identification and assessment of aquatic resources for power plant sites on Maryland's Eastern shore

Abstract

A power plant siting procedure which accounts for the protection and preservation of aquatic resources, defined as sensitive life forms and life stages of economically valuable species of finfish and shellfish, is presented as it was executed on Maryland's Eastern Shore. Negative effects of power plant development and operation are generated principally by the cooling water intake and discharge system. The site‐selection procedure is thus presented as a two‐faceted process, termed regional screening, requiring the separate but simultaneous identification of land‐based sites and cooling systems. Criteria included in regional screening for cooling systems reflected life‐sustaining processes essential to the maintenance of aquatic resources. Major sources of effects of power plants on aquatic resources and siting principles as they affect aquatic resources are defined. Information‐gathering techniques included extensive interviews with key research scientists, state personnel, and numerous Chesapeake Bay watermen.     

Wetlands preservation and management: A rejoinder‐economics,science and beyond

Note

This article is a short response to a critique by William Odum and Stephen Skjei of an earlier article by this author in this Journal entitled “Wetlands Preservation and Management on Chesapeake Bay: The Role of Science in Natural Resource Policy.”; It is a continuation of themes begun in that paper. It focuses on the question of determining the social value of wetlands preservation and the contradictory positions which ecologists fall into when discussing the value of wetlands.     

Tragedy of the San Francisco bay commons

Abstract

Although the early efforts to save San Francisco Bay in the 1960's provided the role model for protection of California's 1100 mile ocean coastline, neither Proposition 20 of 1972 nor the California Coastal Act of 1976 provided any benefits to San Francisco Bay. One result is that the Bay is locked into its urban, shoreline‐use dominated plan of 1969 while every other estuary and coastal wetland in California receives much stronger protection of its resources. Furthermore, due to the complexity of California's water laws, there is no instream flow protection for receiving waters such as San Francisco Bay. This is particularly critical considering that 70% of the Bay's freshwater inflow has been diverted. The Bay's present decline as the largest and most important estuary on the West Coast, as well as its possible death as an estuary, may be irreversible. The problem requires the immediate attention of engineering, scientific, economic and legal disciplines if San Francisco Bay is to be saved.     

Making Computer Models Useful: An Exploration of Expectations by Experts and Local Officials

Recent trends indicate increasing use of computer modeling in support of local environmental policy making. The ability of such models to improve local environmental decision making will depend not only on the characteristics of the models but also on those who will draw on them in making local policy: local government officials. In this study we examine the views of town officials concerned about nitrogen levels in local estuaries about computer models developed to inform their understandings and decisions regarding nitrogen loading. We also compare the views of the town officials with a sample of modelers. We find that town officials are supportive of models and the scientists who build them. However, town officials seek more information about the impacts of changes at small spatial scales (e.g., house building lots) than current models provide or than modelers believe that they can accurately provide, while recognizing the inability of current models to support such analysis. Town officials are also interested in more distant endpoints in the causal chain (e.g., effects on fish populations) than the modelers feel comfortable providing. Finally, our findings suggest that town officials are not supportive of broad public use of the models.     

Bathymetric influences on the lower Chesapeake Bay hydrography

Observations of salinity and density in the lower Chesapeake Bay are used to describe the bathymetric influence on the transverse hydrographic structure in the area. Current velocity observations of high spatial resolution are also used to relate the flow structure to the hydrographic structure. Tidal flow characteristics in the lower bay are affected by the combination of bathymetry and hydrography. Increased stratification over channels relative to shoals may increase M₂ ellipticity with depth over channels but not over shoals. It is found that three consistent hydrographie features can be related to the transverse structure of the longitudinal flow: (1) persistent stratification over channels due to differential tidal advection of density gradients, (2) development of bottom front separating net inflows from net outflows at the region south of Chesapeake Channel, and (3) outflow of low salinity water at the northern end of a lower bay section. Based on these hydrographie features, two basic hydrographic regimes are proposed to exist throughout the year in the lower Chesapeake Bay: (1) a low buoyancy-high mixing energy regime of stratification restricted to channels, a northward monotonical increase in salinity, and a weak bottom front, and (2) a high buoyancy-weak mixing energy regime of stratified conditions everywhere, a large region of northward salinity decrease at the northern half of the section, and a robust bottom front. The dynamics in the transverse direction for the former regime is ageostrophic, and in the latter regime the contribution by geostrophy is approximately 50% as bathymetric influences become less evident.     

Capacity Building for Integrated Coastal Management in Asia-Pacific: The Case for Case Studies

Development of awareness and capacity is a central component to the delivery of ICM and spans from local communities to national-level politicians. Education and training activities associated with ICM must be extremely varied to match both the existing capacity and role that the stakeholders play within the process of ICM. Consequently, there cannot be considered any effective “generic” ICM training; training must be tailored to match the requirements of target groups. The transfer and uptake of good-practice thus becomes an important aspect of quality enhancement in ICM capacity development. Six case studies from the Asia-Pacific region are presented that show diverse and innovative examples of good practice. A comparative analysis of these case studies is carried out in terms of institutional level of impact. In addition a generic systems-based evaluation framework is used to determine the extent to which the training impacts upon ICM implementation indicators. It is concluded that the exchange, transfer, and translation to local conditions of appropriate good practice in ICM capacity development can be an important element in enhancing the impact of ICM programs on the coastal environments and societies. Furthermore, there appears to be a positive link between the involvement of national/state/regional stakeholders in capacity-building initiatives and impacting a wider variety of indicators of ICM delivery.     

基于面元法和CFD的螺旋桨性能比较

分别利用面元法和CFD软件对3个标准螺旋桨的敞水性能进行数值模拟,根据计算结果绘制敞水性能曲线,与试验值进行比较分析。结果表明,这2种预报方法均能达到工程应用要求。文中同时也比较了2种方法对螺旋桨叶面的压力分布的预报能力,对CFD所得的尾流场进行了分析,并将之与面元法的尾涡模型进行了对比。     

Coastal zone management from an administrative perspective: A case study of the san francisco bay conservation and development commission

Abstract

Competent administration of the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 (CZMA) must proceed on an informed understanding of the organization styles and capacities of agencies presently dealing with similar problems. One such agency, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), the forerunner of the California model of coastal management, is analyzed here to shed light on where we are headed and what we can expect administratively as the CZMA becomes an operation reality.

The major administrative insights offered fall into the areas of: (1) effectiveness assessment‐the BCDC's success is systematically defined and measured, and a discussion of what effectiveness evaluation implies in the area of coastal resource management is undertaken; (2) understanding organizational success—the BCDC's administrative style is analyzed in terms of the synergy which has been created between its organizational structure and decision‐making process; and (3) implications of agency success—which of the BCDC's lessons are most valuable and how these can be applied to other situations are shown.     

杭州湾北岸地区码头施工技术

杭州湾地区水域自然条件较恶劣,具有潮差大、水流急,受东南风影响风浪明显等特点;码头下部构件标高低,滩涂平缓栈桥长。文章主要针对这些特点以杭州湾的嘉兴港粮食中转库及外海码头工程施工为例,对受影响明显的码头各施工技术要点进行简要分析阐述,并总结经验供本区域类似码头工程施工参照借鉴。     

The Cost of Nutrient Reduction: A Case Study of Chesapeake Bay

Over $3.5 billion were spent toward nutrient controls in the Chesapeake Bay watershed between 1985 and 1996. These expenditures were based on cost-shares between federal, state, local, and private sources and should be considered conservative. A comparison of point and nonpoint nutrient control expenditures in the Bay basin showed that about 50% of the funds were directed toward agricultural best management practices and 45% were allocated for point source nutrient reductions and combined sewer overflows (20% and 25%, respectively). The remainder was spent on various other estuarine-targeted programs. Maryland was responsible for 79% of the total expenditures, 16% was expended by Virginia, and the remainder was attributable to the District of Columbia and Pennsylvania (4% and 1%, respectively). The most costly basin was the Patuxent (over $125 per kilogram of total nitrogen removed) and the least costly was the Eastern Shore of Virginia, where the cost was just under $21 per kilogram of nitrogen removed. For the control practices examined, the analysis found that nutrient management was the least costly. Animal waste control and low tillage were the second and third most economical nutrient management strategies. Significant reductions were achieved from point sources for both total nitrogen (16%) and total phosphorus (53%) by 1996. Virtually all of the large reduction in point source phosphorus was a result of the phosphorus detergent ban implemented basinwide in the late 1980s. Nonpoint source nutrient reductions were more modest. An approximate 12% reduction in phosphorus was accompanied by an 8% reduction in total nitrogen loadings. Despite these nutrient reductions, no significant improvements in bottom-dissolved oxygen levels were detected along the Bay mainstem during the warmer months, and the mouth of Chesapeake Bay showed marginally significant degradation during the 11-year period. It was determined that dissolved oxygen conditions were influenced more by nitrogen than phosphorus reductions and that nutrient controls aimed at the mid-Bay region had the greatest potential for improving low dissolved oxygen conditions in the Bay's bottom waters.     

Integrating banks’ decision on financing dry bulk shipping: a multivariable approach

ABSTRACT

Shipping is characterized by extreme changes in revenues, operating expenses and asset values, making shipping banks’ final decision for financing shipping market considerably harder. This paper develops a practical decision tool based on the estimation of the credibility factor in the decision-making process, each bank’s policy, and the most significant variables arising from both its operating environment and the dry bulk market. Revealed relationships between bank’s internal environment, its own policy, and dry-bulk shipping market conditions through GDP growth of China constitute a newly presented decision framework in shipping finance. The values of credibility factor implicate either an aggressive or passive defensive strategy taking into account the GDP China changes: Consistent with the economic growth of China, a bank’s holds an aggressive policy if the credibility coefficient is about one. On the other hand, the model predicts that a less aggressive policy in combination with the increase of China’s GDP would drive to the decrease of bank’s loan grants.     

Seasonal changes in the positional importance of components in the trophic flow network of the Chesapeake Bay

Community-level processes may shape food web structure. In this paper, a graph theoretical study of the weighted trophic flow network of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem shows how important are positions in the energy (carbon) transport system. The positional importance of components is compared to the quantity of energy flowing through them. We suggest that the congruence between important network positions and large flows refers to the larger role of trophic interactions in community control. A seasonal dynamical analysis of the network has led us to the conclusion that winter is the season when the importance of predation is the highest.     

The Philadelphia story: 1975

Fishneck, a small and isolated fishing community in the Chesapeake Bay area, has been characterized by low education levels, few suprafamilial organizations, and little participation in institutions outside the community. Community members have resisted proletarianization through barter, exchange, supplemental wage labour, fill-in work, and family mutual aid.

These patterns are changing as contact increases with the wider society. Leisure is identified as the strongest pull toward participation. Results of greater contact include a more positive image to outsiders, a sharpened sense of community and community boundaries, and greater participation in the educational, economic, and political arenas. Whether this community changes toward a small-town fishing hamlet depends first on moving from clan-based to community-based internal organization.     

大金湖游览船船体分段划分方案优化与评估

概述船体分段划分的重要性、影响分段划分的主要因素和进行船体分段划分时应遵循的主要原则,介绍一种简明的评估方法,比较各方案的分段数量、分段重量、分段长度和船台合拢环形口位置来评估各划分方案的优劣,通过实例说明船体分段划分与方案评估的一般过程。     

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures

ABSTRACT

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures links costs to system performance by combining a power-law function with time-dependent queueing analysis. Additionally, the model incorporates the marginal cost of capacity, including the effects of economies of scale. This allows the calculation of the marginal cost price under a dynamic framework. The model accounts for nonlinear behaviour of port demand, which is sensitive to price and service levels. The effects over time of cost and service levels on the port’s operational performance are quantified. The proposed model allows determining the optimal timing for capacity investment. The model is a starting point for the application of marginal cost pricing to ports. However, for practical application of such pricing method it is necessary to apply a system’s approach, as productivity and costs must be assessed at the terminal’s component level. This should allow the derivation of a marginal cost function at the terminal’s component level.     

On the role played by turbulence closures in hull shape optimization at model and full scale

 The practical use of automated computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based design tools in the ship-building industry requires powerful flow solvers which are able to take into account realistic geometries as well as complex physical phenomena, such as turbulence. A shape optimization tool is developed in this framework. A derivative-free optimizer, yielding both flexibility and robustness, is preferred to the classical gradient-based method, which is more difficult to implement and is still limited to only moderately complex problems. The flow solver included in the design procedure solves the incompressible Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations on unstructured grids using a finite-volume formulation involving several near-wall low-Reynolds-number turbulence models. The design tool is used to optimize the stern of a modern hull shape at model and full scale, with different purposes being considered. More precisely, the drag reduction and the homogenization of the flow in the wake are expected by controlling the longitudinal vortex generated. Our interest is particularly focused on the influence of turbulence modeling in the design process. The effects of a two-equation model based on the eddy-viscosity assumption and a second-order closure relying on the Reynolds stress transport equations are compared. Received: September 24, 2002 / Accepted: April 14, 2003 RID="*" Acknowledgment. The authors thank the scientific committee of CINES (project dmn2050) for the attribution of CPU time.     

Impacts of Terrestrial and Shoreline Stressors on Eelgrass in Puget Sound: An Expert Elicitation

We used expert elicitation to examine potential responses of eelgrass to several restoration strategies in Puget Sound. Restoration strategies included shoreline armor removal and modification, removal and modification of overwater structures, and efforts to improve water clarity via reductions in anthropogenic nutrient and sediment loadings. Expert responses indicated a general belief that reducing stressors would increase eelgrass cover; however, responses varied greatly among stressors. Our analyses revealed that removal of overwater structures, nutrient loading and shoreline armoring will have significantly larger effects on eelgrass recovery than would removal of sediment loading, with removal of overwater structures having the largest effect. We then used a probabilistic model to estimate what actions, singularly or in combination, could yield a large increase in eelgrass cover. Reducing single stressors could, in theory, result in recovery of eelgrass in Puget Sound; however, the magnitude of actions required would be so great that it is likely not practical. In contrast, we identified combinations of smaller reductions of stressors that could achieve significant eelgrass recovery. For example, a 40% reduction in overwater structures, combined with 20% reductions in shoreline armor, and nutrient and sediment loadings, was predicted to be one of the more feasible combinations of actions for meeting the target. The importance of eelgrass to Puget requires prompt input of scientific advice, and this work fills an important knowledge gap in the face of rapidly approaching legislative deadlines. While coded expert opinion of the sort we use here is a weak substitute for data, our work clarifies the current extent of scientific uncertainty that can guide management action in the near term and scientific research in the long term.     

De-isolation in the backwater

Fishneck, a small and isolated fishing community in the Chesapeake Bay area, has been characterized by low education levels, few suprafamilial organizations, and little participation in institutions outside the community. Community members have resisted proletarianization through barter, exchange, supplemental wage labour, fill-in work, and family mutual aid.

These patterns are changing as contact increases with the wider society. Leisure is identified as the strongest pull toward participation. Results of greater contact include a more positive image to outsiders, a sharpened sense of community and community boundaries, and greater participation in the educational, economic, and political arenas. Whether this community changes toward a small-town fishing hamlet depends first on moving from clan-based to community-based internal organization.     

钦州湾围滩工程前后潮流场的数值模拟

基于双时间层的有限差分方法(ADI),建立了水深平均二维浅水潮流数学模型,采用逆风格式和追赶法求解二维浅水方程,通过建立钦州湾二维潮流数值模型重现钦州湾的潮位和潮流变化状况。模拟结果与同步进行的岸边潮位及海上潮流的观测值校验结果表明,实测潮位资料与对应时间的计算结果吻合良好,实测潮流与对应时间的计算结果十分接近。模拟计算结果真实地反映钦州湾的潮位变化和潮流运动状况。钦州湾围滩工程实施前后的潮流场数值模拟研究结果表明该工程建设不会对海域水动力学条件产生较大影响。