Port economic impact model (PIM) and its planning applications

The provision of adequate port capacity has been essential for Korean economic development, as its foreign trade has been predominantly seaborne. In this respect, efforts have been directed to the development of seaports in order to provide a sufficient level of service for greater national control of foreign trade. The port planning and development process in Korea, however, has not been a total success. This is underlined by the fact that the seaport industry in Korea has not coped with the increased demand, and total seaport capacity has lagged behind need. This paper examines the validity of the port input-output model (PIM) as predictive tool to future planning. Further the value of the PIM as a forecasting tool to the port transport industry in Korea is identified.     

The cost of not holding back the sea: Toward a national sample of economic vulnerability

Abstract

National and regional estimates of U.S. economic vulnerability to greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise are produced from a sample of 30 discrete regions scattered evenly along the coastline. Scenarios that envision 50 cm, 100 cm, and 200 cm of greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise are considered. They can be expected to place $39.2, $65.6, and $133.3 billion, respectively, (1989 dollars) of existing development in jeopardy through 2050, and $133.3, $308.7, and $909.4 billion through 2100. Sampling error and consideration of the uncertainty with which we currently view future greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise places the 25th and 75th percentile values of expected cumulative vulnerability at $38.5 and $76.7 billion through 2050 and $132.6 and $362.4 billion through 2100. Not surprisingly, the southeast displays the largest potential vulnerability, with the northeast ranking second above both the Gulf coast and the west coast.     

天津港16—18段码头岸坡变形的研究与对策

采用现场原型观测试验和有限元强度折减法建立数学模型,对影响码头岸坡变形因素以及岸坡变形对码头结构的影响进行研究。提出选用板桩墙或钻孔灌注桩的方案来避免或改善码头岸坡变形,保证码头结构安全。     

East European shipping and economic change: a conceptual model

This paper discusses and assesses the complex process of change that has occurred in East Europe over thc last five years, and attempts to relate these changes to the shipping sector. Conventional mathematical methods are discussed as inappropriate in analysing economic, social and political developments and the technique of conceptual modelling is used, borrowed from other disciplines including those of environmental appraisal and computer sciences. The main linkages are discussed with particular reference to the Polish shipping sector, with specific analysis of the legal, managerial, spatial, economic, political, social and organizational contexts. The dominant themes of change are drawn out in an attempt to predict the impact on the Polish shipping industry in general and the three main State companies-Polish Ocean Lines (Liner Shipping); Polish Steamship Company (Bulk/Tramp) and Polish Baltic Ferries- that dominate the market.     

现代工程计划管理模式在超大型油船建造中的应用

大连新船重工有限责任公司为实施区域造船，努力提高“三装（盆舾装、分段预舾装、单元舾装），实现中间产品成品化，运用先进管理模式，编制并实施了“VLCC－1号油船壳舾涂一体化中日程计划”取得了显效果。     

国家信息化水平比较模型构建

构建了一种新型的雷达模型,并在此基础上详细介绍了国家信息化水平比较模型的指标选择、构建步骤以及使用方法.     

A dynamic model and algorithm for fleet planning

By analysing the merits and demerits of the existing linear model for fleet planning, this paper presents an algorithm which combines the linear programming technique with that of dynamic programming to improve the solution to linear model for fleet planning. This new approach has not only the merits that the linear model for fleet planning has, but also the merit of saving computing time. The numbers of ships newly added into the fleet every year are always integers in the final optimal solution. The last feature of the solution directly meets the requirements of practical application. Both the mathematical model of the dynamic fleet planning and its algorithm are put forward in this paper. A calculating example is also given.     

不确定性在动态船队规划模型研究中的应用

通过分析传统船队规划问题,提出了利用鲁棒优化来建立不确定条件船队规划模型,在验证模型有效性时将已知概率的情景结合描述需求的不确定性,最后通过与需求确定情况相比较,说明本文的设计使得船队规划具有模型和解双重鲁棒性。     

潍坊滨海水城人工沙滩防护工程效果物理模型试验研究

文章针对潍坊滨海旅游度假区人工沙滩防护工程进行研究,分析了工程海域自然条件和沙滩侵蚀成因,对滩沙水力特性进行了实验研究,最后通过波浪泥沙整体物理模型试验手段,分析了丁坝防护工程建设后的整治效果。其主要结论如下:潍坊滨海旅游度假区人工沙滩侵蚀的破坏性动力来自NE向波浪的持续向西输沙;正常天气下人工沙滩年损失量约为2万m~3,在极端高水位下如遭遇10 a一遇大浪作用24 h条件下,沙滩损失量为1.2万m~3,人工沙滩年损失量约为7.7万m~3;优化方案实施后,防护工程实施1 a后,人工沙滩年损失量约为6.4万m~3,约占总铺砂量的6%;且抑制东湾内泥沙在风暴潮增水作用下向西湾输送,达到了优化目的。     

多级网络计划模型在多项目管理中的应用

多项目管理日渐成为企业管理中的主题。为了解决项目间的资源冲突问题,可以将多级网络计划引入到企业的多项目管理中。通过对项目的优先级划分,企业可以在多级网络图上直观地将资源按顺序分配给各级项目。     

结构方程模型在区域物流中心规划中的应用

区域物流规划评价过程中涉及众多隐含变量的测量和因果模型的验证,而传统的评价方法难以有效地解决这类问题,降低了评价结果的可信度,结构方程模型的应用为解决这些问题提供了新的更好的方法.构建了区域物流规划评价指标体系,利用结构方程模型对指标体系进行检验修正,并确定各指标权重,应用该指标体系及其权重对待评物流中心进行评价决策.     

The national role in world port development: United States and Western Europe

This paper gives a review of port policies of Western European countries and of the USA, and contrasts the roles of the ports of individual countries. Following a discussion on the assessment of port performance, the paper concludes with remarks on principles of port policy and the implications of Western European policies on US port policy.     

Economic policies and seaports: The economic functions of seaports

This paper argues that the economic functions of seaports are to benefit those whose trade passes through them, i.e. through providing increments to consumers' and producers' surpluses. Whilst recent developments in the technologies of seaports (containers, bigger ships, more rapid handling of bulk cargoes) have increased technical efficiency, they have also provided such economies of scale as to reduce some opportunities for competition and, therefore, the probability that cost reductions are actually passed on in this way. For this purpose port costs need to be considered in their entirety, i.e. as generalized transport costs per tonne, comprising money, time and the risks of loss, damage and delay. Such cost reductions will lead to expanded trade in a variety of ways.

This statement of the economic function of seaports is contrasted with views that they should try to increase employment in their locality, or that they should maximize profits.     

实施全国沿海船舶定线制与航路规划 打造“海上平安通道”

2011年下半年,交通运输部先后印发了《全国沿海船舶定线制总体规划》和《全国沿海船舶航路总体规划》,这是在我国沿海水域船舶交通流量和交通密度不断增加,通航环境日益复杂,发生船舶交通事故的风险持续加大的背景下,为保障人民群众生命财产安全和国民经济平稳发展,交通运输部海事局打造安全、便捷、畅通、绿色的＂海上平安通道＂的重要举措。     

战时舰载导弹配送路径规划模型构建研究

针对战时舰载导弹配送路径规划问题,考虑到战时舰载导弹配送时涉及到的多个因素,从动态规划、图与网络角度进行分析,建立了单参数、多参数和多始点、多终点的配送路径规划问题的数学模型,有效地对战时舰载导弹配送路径进行了优化.同时,运用MATLAB和LINGO对有关的实例模型进行求解验证,对战时舰载导弹配送中缩短配送时间、降低配送需要投入的保障力量、确保高效、快速、准确、及时完成配送任务有一定的理论参考价值.     

船舶物流路径规划的数学模型构建及求解

船舶物流路径规划的研究具有十分重要的经济价值,当前船舶物流路径规划方法无法找到最优的船舶物流路径规划方案,使得船舶物流运输的成本过高,为此本文设计了基于蚁群算法和粒子群算法的船舶物流路径规划方法。首先分析船舶物流路径规划研究的历史,建立船舶物流路径规划的数学模型,然后采用粒子群算法对船舶物流路径规划的数学模型进行求解,找到有效的船舶物流路径规划方案集合,并在此基础上采用蚁群算法对船舶物流路径规划方案集合进行搜索,找到最优的船舶物流路径规划方案,最后与单一蚁群算法、粒子群算法进行了船舶物流路径规划问题求解的仿真实验。本文方法避免了单一蚁群算法、粒子群算法求解速度慢,难以找到最优船舶物流路径规划方案不足,得到的船舶物流路径规划方案可以帮助企业节约物流运输成本。     

基于引力模型和群决策理论的物流园区空间吸引范围

为有效应对物流园区数量过多、规模过大、资源浪费闲置等问题,运用引力模型理论对物流园区空间吸引范围进行了定量研究.基于群决策理论,对物流园区"质量"影响因素的相对权重进行了定量探讨,给出了物流园区"质量"的计算公式和步骤,并进行了实证分析.     

经济发展和改革的历史性变化与增长方式的根本转变

中国经济发展达到了怎样的历史阶段,这一阶段具有怎样的突出特点? 根据经济数量和经济质态这两类基本指标,对我国经济发展所达到的水平加以判断,大体上可以说,纵向地看,我国经济目前处于工业化加速时期,横向地看,我国目前略高于世界中下等收入发展中国家的平均水平.     

舰船装备论证方案经济性模糊评价与决策

针对舰船装备论证方案的经济性评价与决策问题,从系统效能、费用、时间和风险4个方面建立一套全面而系统的评价指标体系。在对各类指标进行模糊化处理的基础上,构建舰船装备经济性的模糊综合评价模型,实现对论证方案经济性的全方位权衡与评价,可为论证方案的评价与决策提供一定参考。