A quantitative risk analysis by using interval type-2 fuzzy FMEA approach: the case of oil spill

ABSTRACT

Risk assessment in maritime domain is one of the most cited topics since maritime transportation poses potential hazard for human life, marine environment and property. To mitigate risk and enhance safety awareness in maritime transportation, safety researchers have been seeking proactive solutions. This article prompts a quantitative risk-based approach combining interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to perform a comprehensive risk analysis. Thus, potential failure modes and their effects are revealed by calculating risk prioritisation numbers (RPNs). Whilst the FMEA method provides a robust risk analysing tool with relevant control options, the IT2FSs deals with ambiguity and vagueness of linguistic assessment of decision-makers through the FMEA. Hence, expert’s linguistic assessment in risk assessment can be transformed into useful information in terms of enhancing safety and pollution prevention in maritime industry. To demonstrate the proposed approach, potential failures and effects of a real shipboard oil spill case are handled. The findings show that incomplete information exchanged with local maritime authorities, malfunction of oil skimmer and poor organization of shoreline clean-up team are the most important failures during case of oil spill. The proposed approach provides not only theoretical insight into the maritime transportation industry but also practical contributions to chemical/oil tanker safety and environmental protection by mitigating risk in terms of technical or operational aspects.     

The long island response to the risks of outer continental shelf oil production

Abstract

The legal battles employed as a strategy to secure increased environmental safeguards identified by the technical studies demonstrate the role of public opinion in shaping federal actions. This article approaches the question of risk from OCS oil production activities by discussing the methodology developed to identify the probability of impact to the south shore of Long Island from the potential of an oil spill, either from drilling or transport activities. A set of probability curves were developed in accordance with seasonal climatic and current patterns in order to establish a range of hazard zones to enable the development of regulatory policy for the location and relocation of shipping lanes that would minimize direct impact to the near shore waters and coastline of Long Island.     

Risk assessment of inland waterborne transportation using data mining

ABSTRACT

China has constructed a relatively complete inland waterborne transportation system. However, the frequent occurrence of inland water accidents with serious consequences, like the catastrophic Orient Star shipwreck, is an urgent unsolved problem. To reduce such accidents in the future and improve inland waterborne transportation safety, this study uses data mining, mainly containing text mining and association rule mining to risk assess China’s inland waterborne transportation, rather than the traditional quantitative risk assessment model. Text mining enables the risk factors to be objectively identified and distilled from accident reports. The potential relationships between risk variables are explored using association rule mining, based on the FP-Growth algorithm. The results reveal the essential problem facing China’s inland waterborne transportation system: frequent and varied ship accidents; key risk factors include overloading or improper loading, poor navigation visibility, inadequate sailor competence, and insufficient government supervision of shipowners and shipping companies. Combining the actual circumstances of inland waterborne transportation operations, this study proposes relevant recommendations for governments and relevant supervisory departments. The integrated application of text mining and association rule mining serves to avoid uncertainty and subjectivity, and achieve good results proving their scientific nature as a feasible method in water transportation risk research.     

Environmental assessment in the Prc: Third phase of the Qinhuangdao coal port

Abstract

The use of environmental impact assessment (EIA) is relatively recent in the People's Republic of China (PRC). China is committed to a reversal of the environmental degradation resulting from its industrialization and the central government has initiated a requirement for environmental planning and assessment for large development projects. Today large scale harbor developments are subject to the requirements of the National Environmental Protection Law (1979) and the Marine Environmental Law (1982). Because the third phase expansion of the coal port of Qinhuangdao would increase the ports’ capacity to handle coal by 30 to 50 million tons, an EIA was required.

Since 1981, the Environment and Policy Institute of the East‐West Center (EWC), Honolulu, has had a program of research focusing on the environmental impacts of coal transportation. On the basis of workshops in China that centered on the problems associated with planning coal transportation projects, the Ministry of Communications of the PRC invited the EWC to participate in the environmental assessment for the third phase coal port expansion at Qinhuangdao. A 10‐member team with specialities in environmental assessment and port environmental problems from five countries representing the EWC worked with a 25‐member team from four different agencies of the PRC Ministry of Communications.

This article describes the environmental regulations in the PRC that affect this harbor expansion, discusses the process by which the EWC assisted the PRC in the preparation of the environmental assessment and evaluates the assessment product against PRC regulations and U.S. standards. The most important contribution of the EWC was the provision of guidelines adapted from the EIA experience in several countries which will assist the PRC in the environmental evaluation of future pon expansion projects.     

Shipboard safety: exploring organizational and regulatory factors

ABSTRACT

How vessel crews perceive safety on board (shipboard safety) is a useful indication for the general safety level. In this study a theoretical model was explored, involving factors that could possibly influence shipboard safety. Based on a survey questionnaire (n = 244), safety climate, shipowner efficiency demands and regulatory activities were investigated as influencing factors. Structural equation modelling gave support to the theoretical model and the findings illustrate that simultaneous involvement of various levels of the maritime system (crews, shipowners, regulators) can be effective for safety improvements. The study indicates that shipboard safety is affected by actions and prioritization by external actors through safety climate. It suggests that the maritime industry will profit from monitoring safety climate as part of the ongoing risk considerations, as a supplement to reactive parameters such as accident statistics.     

Noaa's civil penalty policy: Time for a change

Abstract

This article explores the lack of uniform penalty assessment in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) civil penalty policy under the Fishery Conservation and Management Act (the Magnuson Act). The author sugests that NOAA's inconsistent penalty assessment invites noncompliance by fishers because they view the penalties as unfair and arbitrary. In particular, deterrence is undermined by the absence of a provision that removes the economic benefits of noncompliance. NOAA's policy is contrasted with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) civil penalty policy, which uniformly assesses penalties while tailoring the penalty to the individual facts of the case and effectively removing the economic incentives of noncompliance. If NOAA implemented a policy similar to EPA's, NOAA would secure increased Magnuson Act compliance and higher penalty amounts.     

Maritime accident risk estimation for sea lanes based on a dynamic Bayesian network

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation has become increasingly important with the development of international economics and trade. This paper introduces a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to facilitate the estimation of the dynamic emergency risk in sea lanes. The DBN model is a novel model that can efficiently represent and infer complex stochastic knowledge. To construct this model, available data, which were collected from emergency investigation reports by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), are employed in conjunction with expert knowledge to develop and demonstrate a BN; an evidence theory approach is applied to calculate the prior probability with the help of historical data; the conditional probability is learned by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm; and the transition probability is obtained by a Markov model. Finally, the Viterbi algorithm is adopted to estimate emergency risk. The emergencies that occurred in the Indian Ocean from 2009 to 2018 were used as a case study for risk estimation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify significant influential factors. The results show that the sea lane risk in the Indian Ocean fluctuates within a small range, presenting an overall downward trend over time. These findings provide a reference for maritime stakeholders to make proper decisions.     

Assessing the Impacts of Gender Integration in Ghana’s Fisheries Sector

Abstract

This article presents the results of an impact assessment of a component of a large scale USAID sustainable fisheries management project initiative aimed at integrating gender and strengthening the role of women in fisheries management in Ghana. The assessment is based on a literature review and qualitative field data collection. It assessed gender integration from three entry points: improving the Ghanaian policy environment for gender in fisheries, empowering women post-harvest processors, and engaging women gleaners in fisheries co-management. The assessment found that an important milestone was the adoption and implementation of the Ghanaian Fisheries Sector’s National Gender Mainstreaming Strategy in 2016. Summarizing the impacts on local post-harvest processors and gleaners, the assessment found that female post-harvest processors have increased capacity, confidence, and engagement in fisheries management. Gender mainstreaming efforts have succeeded in challenging cultural norms about women’s role in fisheries. Women have been exposed to sustainable fisheries management and are better equipped with the knowledge and leadership skills to advocate for good fisheries practices, which they actively demonstrate.     

An alternative perspective on common property resource allocation decisions in the coastal zone

Abstract

This article argues that using the public sector and the private market in the historically delineated and traditional ways offers only the bluntest of tools with which to approach the complex problem of coastal zone management. It therefore seeks to provide a basis for reformulating our understanding of sectoral responsibility with regard to resources management. First, it conceptually analyzes the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two sectors. Second, it examines three examples of coastal resources management—beaches and shorelands, artificial reefs, and coastal wetlands—in analyzing the complexities of the coastal management challenge and the limitations of our current approaches. Finally, we provide an alternative perspective on how these common property resource allocation decisions can be made.     

Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route

ABSTRACT

Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage.     

The visual effects of port redevelopment alternatives

Abstract

In the early 1970s, Seattle Piers 90/91 were declared surplus federal property by the GSA. These obsolescent half‐mile‐long piers and their adjacent uplands were purchased by the Port of Seattle for redevelopment. This urban waterfront site of almost 200 acres presents the Port of Seattle with a number of severe planning problems. While it is the last large deep‐water site on Elliott Bay, it is also in a very sensitive location, since it is overlooked on two sides by vocal residential communities with a history of active intervention in development projects on visual and other environmental grounds.

At Piers 90/91, public concerns over the visual effects of port redevelopment include:

1. nuisance effects of night‐operations lighting on adjacent hillside residences;

2. nighttime obstruction of distant views due to increased foreground illumination;

3. day and night view obstruction by tall structures such as container‐handling cranes;

4. alteration of the character of both day and nighttime views by new port facilities.

As part of a program to study the effects of alternative redevelopment strategies for Piers 90/91, the Port has undertaken a through examination of the visual effects of different uses, their visual appropriateness, and the ways by which adverse visual effects can be mitigated. The results were incorporated into an environmental impact statement which documented compliance with the Seattle Shoreline Master Program and with view protection and glare provisions of the City's S.E.P.A. guidelines.

A systematic Visual Resource Management (VRM) approach was successfully employed on this coastal zone project. Major elements included visibility mapping, key view selection, analysis of existing visual character, simulation of alternatives, assessment of relative visual compatibility, and determination of effective mitigation measures. Community involvement has also been a critical element in this approach to assessing and managing the visual effects of redevelopment in a major urban port.     

Public opinion and the environment: Ecology,the coastal zone,and public policy

Abstract

In a public opinion survey conducted in Santa Barbara county, California, respondents were interviewed regarding their feelings on coastal zone development, within a context of broader environmental and political issues.

A high degree of expressed concern for the environment was found, but the data also indicate a widespread reluctance to allocate a greater share of personal income to improve environmental quality.

Among the issues dealt with are citizen views on environmental problems, the effectiveness of government in the environmental field, offshore oil drilling, and coastal zone development.

The results show that on each of the issues analyzed, a person's education, age, and the extent of his political participation are the major factors which determine his concern for the environment. Additional variables appear to have some significance in determining attitudes toward local environmental projects and perceptions of government.

Offered are implications of the findings for the future of organized action on environmental problems.     

Land use pressures on coastal estuaries in Atlantic Canada

Abstract

The management of estuarine areas in Canada has received little attention; this is specifically the case along the Atlantic coast. This article reviews the importance of estuaries as resources and analyzes the land‐use pressures which can affect them. Specific emphasis is placed on the results of a recent study of estuaries in Atlantic Canada. The incidence of the closures of shellfish areas is used as a measure of the impact of land development on estuaries.     

A system for determining economic loss associated with estuary degradation

Abstract

This article suggests a method of estimating economic losses for estuary‐dependent faunal species under conditions whereby the impact of a given degrading development on a particular estuary has a significant degree of uncertainty associated with it. The approach draws on standard theories from a variety of disciplines to provide an operational procedure capable of joint application by biologists, economists, and other related disciplines with working responsibility in the subject area. Consideration is given to probability estimation of possible impacts, sensitivity to underlying assumptions, and decisional safety under conditions of uncertainty. Applied results are demonstrated in a simulation of a negative developmental impact on the estuary‐dependent salmon resources of the Fraser River in British Columbia.     

Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

A three-dimensional risk management model of port logistics for hazardous goods

ABSTRACT

Ports are the distribution centers of hazardous goods in the global transportation system. Once hazardous goods accidents occur in ports, they may cause catastrophic losses to humans and the environment. This research investigates the port logistics risks of hazardous goods and provides an overview of port logistics regarding hazardous goods risks. With this investigation, we conducted a detailed analysis of the underlying causes of the port logistics accidents related to hazardous goods. To manage these risks, this article proposes a three-dimensional risk management model that includes human, governance and goods and provides a risk level identification framework for port hazardous goods logistics. Applying the three-dimensional risk management model, we use the Tianjin port explosion as a case study. Finally, we provide several potential preventative measures to prevent such accidents. The findings of this article contribute to the implementation and monitoring of port strategies that will allow for more sustainable and secure development.     

Managing community acceptance of major industrial projects

Abstract

In some cases, the major risk encountered by an industry seeking to site a facility is that of community acceptance. Without community acceptance of a proposed project, construction can be delayed, taxes can be prohibitive, and operations can be prevented through the opposition and influence of local groups. This paper describes the community acceptance risk, the traditional industrial approach to countering local opposition, and a positive approach to achieving community acceptance. This positive approach entails careful site selection; affirmative management of the community acceptance problem, including explicit planning of the community acceptance effort, assignment of staff with specific responsibilities to implement plans, and a budget for mitigating the impacts of the project on the community; acquisition of sufficient land to buffer unavoidable impacts of the project; a carefully formed corporate policy on the public release of information concerning the project; and constructive participation in state and local government policy development.     

Legal battles on the California coast: A review of the rules

Abstract

Notions of private property have both legal and political importance. In California, as elsewhere in the United States, these ideas are changing. The rate and direction of this evolution is not different on the coast. But the intense heat generated by competing coastal interests does tend to illuminate these issues more clearly on the coast. The full range of these issues has been raised in California, where an historic attempt is now being made to plan and manage the use of coastal resources. In January 1976 the California Legislature will be presented with a coastal plan which promises to inflame the passions of traditional property rights advocates and environmental zealots alike. Much of the rhetoric surrounding this political struggle is already being couched in legal terms. In an effort to delineate a few of the genuine legal issues raised in this planning process, this article summarizes the law of California which is relevant in defining the permitted scope of public regulatory power over private land use.