谈如何用FFA规避运费风险

国际干散货运输主要通过不定期船(即租船)来实现的.而不定期船运输的特点决定了干散货运输市场是一种接近于完全竞争结构的市场.由于这样一个市场受世界经济和贸易、国际政治、自然因素等的影响,使其运价始终处于变化之中.而运费的波动、变化无常给干散货经营者(船东和货主)带来极大的风险和不确定性.     

金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输市场状况与对策

2008年金融危机以来,世界经贸形势错综复杂,国际干散货船舶运输市场陷入低迷,BDI指数持续低谷盘整。研究了国际干散货运输需求情况和运力增长规模,剖析了国际干散货运价走势,并针对金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输市场状况,提出了金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输的发展对策。     

国际干散货运输市场发展趋势

观察近年来波罗的海干散货运价指数及相关指数变化，分析国际干散货运输市场发展趋势，指出国际经济发展，特别是中国经济发展与国际干散货运输市场紧密关联，运输市场是典型的周期性行业。     

干散货船准班轮运输模式创新

国际干散货运输是全球贸易的重要组成部分。当前,其市场出现了持续低迷的新常态,面临竞争激烈的市场环境,这种货运输模式只有进一步丰富创新,才能提高航运企业的盈利水平。文章借鉴了秦皇岛港煤炭运输的创新尝试,对干散货准班轮运输模式进行分析。     

波罗的海运费指数与干散货运输市场

人们在谈及国际干散货运输市场或作国际干散货运输市场的预测研究时,往往以波罗的海运费指数作依据,给外行人造成一种印象,波罗的运费指数决定国际干散货运输市场。事实并非如此。 波罗的海运费指数(Baltic Freight In-dex)产生于波罗的海国际期贷交易所,它以该所成交的干散货运输期货协议为内容,得出加权平均数。波罗的海国际期货交易所成立于1985年5月,有30个成员。根据经纪     

进口干散货市场评述

7月,干散货运输市场政策面稍有利好因素放出,但短期内市场基本面仍没有改善。整体而言,国际干散货运输市场各大船型运价波动较小。中国进口干散货运输市场海岬型船运价平稳运行、巴拿马型船运价小幅上调、超灵便型船运价阴跌。     

浅谈远期运费合约在运费保值中的应用

熟悉国际干散货海上运输的航运界人士都知道,在整个国际航运市场中,干散货运输是最不稳定、最容易发生波动的市场。干散货运输主要是通过不定期船（即租船）来实现的。不定期船运输的特点就决定了干散货运输市场是一个接近于完全竞争结构的市场。在这样的一个市场中,由于受政治、经济以及自然条件等方面的影响,干散货的运费费率是无时无刻不在变化的。而单个船东或单个货主由于没有能力控制和影响市场运价,只能被动地接受运价。这就为干散货经营带来了极大的风险和不确定性。面对变幻莫测的市场环境,干散货经营纷纷寻找可以规避市场剧烈波动风险的办法。于是,远期运费合约FFA（Forward Freight Argeement),作为一种运费套期保值的办法,在干散货航运市场中日益流行。国际上不少知名的船公司、贸易公司和经纪人公司在这方面已经积累了相当的经验,也获得了相当的利益。但是在国内,不要说是一般的中小型企业,就连一些大公司也从未涉足到这一领域。随着中国加入世贸组织的时间日益临近,中国的各大航运企业有必要了解、掌握和运用这方面的知识,以便在未来行业竞争更加激烈、运价变化更加复杂的情况下更有效地规避风险,稳定发展。     

10月国际干散货市场评述

运力方面．本月国际干散货市场运力投放速度再度放缓．船舶拆解量同比大幅增加．现有运力增幅放慢。需求方面，进入传统的干散货运输旺季，市场基本面稍有缓和。本期国际干散货运输市场大小船型运价走势分化．大船运价一路飙涨令波罗的海国际干散货综合运价指数（BDI）大幅上涨。     

2005年国际干散货运输市场预测分析

国际干散货运输市场从2003年初到2004年年底已经高涨了两年，持续时间和上升幅度大大超过以往，我国的影响力度也是前所未有，我国经济高速发展带动原材料需求的大幅增长成为支持此轮繁荣行情的中坚力量，2005年国际干散货运输市场能否保持兴旺，很大程度上仍取决于中国因紊”。本文将从世界和中国经济的发辰、钢铁业的走势、需求与供给分析、市场面临的风险等几个方面来综合分析预测2005年国际干散货运输市场的走势。     

2007年国际干散货运输市场预测

2006年的国际干散货运输市场呈现出前低后高、波动加大、投机日盛、心态走强、倒挂明显等特点,特别是投机炒作和心理预期使市场受到更多人为因素的影响。这种市场的新变化让很多年初预测悲观的机构大跌眼镜,也让很多船东痛失良机,充分说明当今的干散货运输市场影响因素众多,形势复杂。2007年已经到来,国际干散货运输市场出现的这些新变化将会继续影响市场走势,但是决定市场走势的根本仍是供需关系。从宏观环境、钢材生产、货运需求、运力供给等几个方面预测分析2007年国际干散货运输市场走势。     

常规双体船自摇周期的一种理论预报方法

本文从船舶运动的基本理论出发,借助于细长体理论和Frank方法,对常规双体船在规则波中的运动作了理论探讨,提出了一种理论预报的实用方法。经与试验数据比较,证明该方法在精度上是可靠的,本文所作的一些假定是可行的,它可用于预报常规双体船的前期适航性能。     

Port privatization under Cournot vs. Bertrand competition: a third-market approach

By incorporating port competition into a third-market model consisting of two exporting firms and one importing country, we demonstrate the endogenous choice of port structures (i.e. privatization or public ownership) under either Bertrand or Cournot competition. In contrast to previous studies on port competition, we analyze the port strategy in view of all trading countries (i.e. importing country and exporting countries). We find that regardless of transport cost, the port ownership strategy alters according to exporting firm’s competition mode. Under Bertrand competition, the choice of port ownership structure depends on the degree of imperfect substitutability. However, under Cournot competition, all trading countries choose same ownership structures of each port. By comparing equilibrium of each competition mode, we show that welfare of exporting country under Cournot competition is higher than under Bertrand competition if goods are sufficiently substitutes. In contrast, importing country prefers Bertrand competition to Cournot competition when the competitive pressure is sufficiently high.     

Autonomy, bureaucracy, professionalism and accountability: a transaction cost approach to shipboard controls

In recent years, shipping industry has encountered severe competition, technological change, and environmental and safety concerns. In order to remain competitive, firms need to review and redesign shipboard work. A crucial aspect of these efforts is shipboard controls that define the extent of autonomy and accountability of officers and crew. This study examines four types of controls on board ships. These are monitoring and autonomy, outcome accountability, formalization and professionalization. The study applied trancsaction cost theory to test eight hypotheses on board 16 ships in two companies. The results largely confirm theoretical predictions. Task visibility, complexity and uncertainty show strong relationships to the four types of controls. However, there are also significant gaps in that accountability for outcomes is low, and situation with regard to crew training and autonomy can be improved. Implications for human resource practice and future research are discussed.     

现代港口建设与运营中的竞争

从港口所有制形式，港口竞争的层次。影响港口竞争的主要因素等方面，论述了现代港口的主要竞争手段。指出除了地理条件不可改变外，其他条件都可以通过各种竞争手段来实现。竞争与合作是现代港口竞争的新趋势。     

The Japan coastal ferry system

This paper provides analysis of the medium- and long-distance ferry sectors in Japan. Data has been obtained from semi-structured interviews with ferry operators, port authorities, government officials and from secondary sources. The Japanese ferry industry is assessed on the basis of a range of criteria, including routes and operators, traffic flows, vessels, ports and modal competition. Today, approximately one in every four trucks travelling over distances in excess of 100km in Japan are carried by ferry, and this notwithstanding the alternative of an expanding expressway system. There are clearly lessons here for other countries with long coastlines and congested highways. Many ferry operators in Japan are nevertheless unable to make a profit and clearly there will have to be action taken to secure the future of the industry in the face of high crew costs and competition from low-cost trucking. A potential future opportunity may exist for Japanese ferry lines to extend services to other parts of Asia. Given the success of the European ferry sector as a result of the Single European Market, and pending continued economic cooperation in Asia, potential for any expansion of ferry links between Japan and its near neighbours needs to be evaluated.     

港口竞争的市场结构与竞争行为分析

目前，港口竞争研究已成为一个热点问题。为此，本文首先对港口竞争的范围作了界定，在此基础上，剖析了两种不同类型的港口竞争的市场结构，最后对不同市场结构下的港口竞争行为进行了分析。     

长三角港口群的竞争与合作

过度的竞争会削弱双方的力量,合作则可以开创双赢的局面。在我国对外开放程度日益扩大、经济持续增长、港口运输业高速发展的今天,长三角港口之间的关系也应该表现为竞争与合作并存,并以合作为主流。     

技术创新:疏浚业发展必由之路

运用战略经营和企业能力等经济学和管理学的基本理论,在对我国内河水运企业竞争环境分析的基础上,探讨中国内河水运企业根据竞争环境和自身条件,确定竞争定位与战略目标,选择相应的竞争战略,注重培育核心竞争力,以保持竞争优势地位。     

On the beaten track: a view of US West-Coast container port competition

More than a century ago far-sighted railroad builders and steamship operators were seeking the shortest intermodal itineraries between the eastern United States and the Orient. A combination of locational fact and the factual outcomes of 19th century railroad building left Chicago roughly equidistant in railway mileage from what became the four great US West-Coast port complexes in the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle regions. Their nearly equivalent rail access to Chicago and points east has renewed significance in the container era.

This paper concerns the efforts of US Pacific seaboard ports to stay 'on the beaten track' with respect to container shipments between Asia and the eastern United States. The West-Coast ports are transit points dividing the transcontinental and transoceanic segments of long intercontinental journeys. From origins to destinations there are, in fact, many possibly feasible itineraries, including all-water routes.

The West-Coast ports have considerable control over their own site improvements. On the other hand, with respect to transiting container traffic, the ports may influence, but are unlikely to control, their own situations. Since the major container port facilities are very often on long-term lease to large intermodal carriers, the latter are making the important shipping and routeing decisions. The carriers tend in fact to set the tone and level of port competition.

What is the nature of the competition between container ports? Is it a figment of the publicist's imagination and perpetuated by irrelevant statistical boasting? Is it perhaps something forced on the ports by carriers eager to play one port off against another in a 'lowest bid' game? At what geographical scale might port competition be most useful or, maybe, least wasteful?     

Optimal economic interventions in scheduled public transport

This chapter analyses appropriate regulatory instruments for public transport markets under monopoly and competition, respectively. For the monopoly case, the operator chooses too low supply, compared to welfare optimum. In contrast, for the competition case the operators choose too high supply, at least for the competition model that we have considered most appropriate. It is found that under monopoly a subsidy should be applied, while under competition taxation should be applied.