Commuting travel behavior focusing on the role of shared transportation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Tokyo Olympics

To maintain life in the face of the COVID-19, people's lifestyles and travel behaviors must change. Accordingly, such changes have also occurred in the travel behavior for commuting purposes, especially during periods of severe congestion. The most typical example is the decrease in commuting travel due to telecommunication and other factors. Additionally, with the development of the sharing economy in recent years, the introduction of shared transportation has been rapidly expanding in the transportation sector, which may contribute to alleviating traffic congestion and other problems in the COVID-19 situation. In this study, we focused on the changes in travel behavior for commuting purposes during the COVID-19 period, including the time of the Tokyo Olympics, when traffic congestion was expected. The survey was conducted using a web-based questionnaire. In addition, to further promote changes in the travel behavior during the COVID-19 period, we analyzed the possibility of changes in the use of shared transportation arising from nudge effects of information provision and incentives. The results showed that the changes in commuting travel behavior were related to the awareness of COVID-19. Certain issues, such as a lack of ports and the widespread use of shared transportation need to be identified and resolved. Meanwhile, it was shown that the role of shared transportation for commuting purposes could be further improved by incentives and real-time information presentation about shared transportation.     

交通暴露与土地利用模式对社区COVID-19传播风险的影响

为揭示交通暴露和土地利用层面各因素对新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情在社区尺度传播风险的影响,以A市315个小区的1 947例COVID-19确诊数据为研究样本,利用ArcGIS平台的地理编码、核密度分析、空间统计和网络分析等方法,基于道路网络、公交网络、城市POI和中国GDP/人口空间分布的公里网格数据,获取有病例小区500m缓冲区范围内表征交通暴露和土地利用的14项具体指标。在此基础上,采用小区的COVID-19确诊人数作为解释变量,同时考虑交通暴露层面变量(路网密度、设施邻近度)和土地利用层面变量(混合度、使用强度),运用经典全局泊松回归和变系数地理加权泊松回归(GWPR)2种方法建立模型并进行实证对比分析。研究结果表明:考虑空间异质性的GWPR模型具有更高拟合优度和解释度;道路密度、公交线网密度、CBD邻近度、建筑密度、人口密度和土地价值与小区COVID-19传播风险呈显著正相关;出入口邻近度、绿地公园邻近度和土地利用混合度变量则在GWR模型中表现出随空间位置的改变呈现显著正负2种影响效果;人口密度、土地价值、绿地公园邻近度和土地利用混合度对小区COVID-19传播风险...     

新冠疫情对居民休闲出行影响研究

为了就新冠疫情对疫情结束后居民休闲出行的影响展开调查研究,把握疫情后居民休闲出行偏好的变化,分析休闲出行意愿的影响因素和影响机制,并量化分析各因素的影响,基于计划行为理论和收益-风险分析构建结构方程模型,量化感知风险、感知正效用、出行态度、主观规范、感知行为控制等影响因素与疫情后休闲出行意愿的相互影响机制,并利用单因素...     

左延安:关于促进汽车市场尽快复苏的政策建议

近日,中国汽车工业咨询委员会委员、原安徽江淮汽车集团有限公司董事长左延安,对当下是否有必要出台促进汽车市场复苏发展的政策措施和如何制定相关政策、制定哪些具体的政策提出了自己的思考与建议。希望能够与汽车行业的同仁共同分享、共同探讨,为相关部门下一步制定相关政策提供决策参考。     

新冠肺炎疫情对中国国际航运网络空间格局影响分析

基于2020年2月—5月全球航线班轮运输服务信息,对新冠肺炎疫情影响下中国国际集装箱航运网络空间格局的变化开展研究.考虑新冠肺炎疫情发展动态,基于全球主要航运公司往来中国的集装箱班轮运输服务信息及航线的名义舱位,构建了新冠肺炎疫情下中国际集装箱海上运输的有向加权复杂网络模型,从中国国际航线集装箱运力、航运网络拓扑结构特征以及港口和航线的地位3个方面对疫情期间中国国际航运网络空间格局的动态变化情况进行了定量分析.航线运力的分析结果表明,疫情爆发初期,中国国际集装箱运力损失超过50%,随着中国对疫情的积极控制,2020年第6周—第12周航线运力逐渐恢复,随后由于疫情的全球蔓延,中国对外出口海运运力再次出现波动下降趋势;网络建模及拓扑特征指标分析结果表明,疫情对中国国际集装箱航运网络的空间格局造成了严重冲击.其中,航运网络平均度值下降了23.73%,聚集系数下降了26.4%,平均路径长度下降了19.0%.     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响下中国航空货运量分析与预测

在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对航空货运的影响下,月度航空货运量出现异于历史趋势的极端数据,而传统航空货运量预测模型有在极端数据影响下误差较大的问题。因此,研究了适用于后疫情时代的中国航空货运量短期预测方法。对2009—2020年中国航空货运量月度数据进行分析,发现中国航空货运量呈稳定增长趋势。受疫情影响出现短期剧烈波动,在假设疫情对航空货运的影响逐渐减弱的前提下,选取Holt-Winters乘法模型与求和自回归移动平均ARIMA乘积季节模型分别提取航空货运量数据的长期趋势、周期特征和短期波动特征,并采用4种不同权重确定方法构建了多个航空货运量组合预测模型。运用Holt-Winter模型、ARIMA模型及其组合预测模型对2021—2022年中国航空月度货运量进行了预测,以2021年1月—5月的航空货运量数据作为验证数据集,对比分析了不同预测模型的预测误差。结果表明：Holt-Winters与ARIMA组合预测模型的平均绝对百分比误差与最大绝对百分比误差普遍小于自身单一模型的;基于最小二乘法赋权的组合模型预测效果最优,基于残差倒数法赋权的组合模型预测效果次优;最优组合模型的平均绝对百分比误差为1.93%,比次优组合模型降低了8.53%,较单一的Holt-Winters模型与ARIMA模型分别降低了71.70%与20.58%,验证了最优组合模型对后疫情时代中国航空货运量月度数据预测的有效性。     

法治视野下的大型邮轮疫情防控对策措施——基于抗击新冠肺炎实践的探析

基于依法防疫要求,结合新冠肺炎抗疫中暴露的大型邮轮疫情防控问题,采用文献综述、实证研究和规范分析法,从法治角度探讨了大型邮轮疫情防控对策措施.大型邮轮疫情防控的医学、社会学防控特点,导致各国防控策略不同.我国突发事件应对、交通运输、公共卫生等疫情防控相关政策法规体系已具备基本框架,但专门针对大型邮轮疫情防控的政策法规(包括技术法规)尚属空白.其原因包括大型邮轮起步较晚、技术法规理念和制度缺失、依法抗疫理念形成和制度完善需要一个过程.法治视野下的大型邮轮疫情防控对策措施包括3个方面:①从生命健康权、交通强国建设、传染病防治等维度对大型邮轮疫情防控政策法规再认识,尽快完善大型邮轮船舶制造、市场准入、日常运营等政策法规和标准,以满足《交通强国建设纲要》将大型邮轮发展作为重点任务的要求;②尽快完善大型邮轮疫情防控制度体系,包括根据大型邮轮生命全周期和运行全过程特征、多元防控并无缝衔接的思路完善政策法规及标准,对防控传染病同时做"输入"和"输出"的制度设计,在《船舶技术法规体系框架(2020)》中规定邮轮医疗床位比例、医护人员比例、医疗费用比例等大型邮轮疫情防控技术法规;③严格依法分类处置大型邮轮疫情,包括区分乘客、船员及邮轮国籍;区分邮轮所在水域;区分依法处置与依人道主义的协助处置.     

Fostering partnerships towards sustainable urban mobility from the national to local level: Matsuyama,Japan and Yogyakarta,Indonesia

This paper analyzes the implementation of Japan's and Indonesia's national frameworks aiming to promote sustainable urban mobility by placing transport policy coordination as pre-requisites under the decentralization regime. It takes two cities, Matsuyama and Yogyakarta, as the case studies. The analytical framework developed here highlights multi-level government coordination, coordination among local stakeholders, and regulator–operator coordination. The analysis is based on policy documents review, field observation, hearing and a questionnaire survey. The study shows some good practices as well as drawbacks of the schemes and produces lessons-learned from Japan's ‘omnibus town scheme’ to improve Indonesia's public transport program and for other cities in developing countries.     

汽车专家杜芳慈:专用车如何管?日本的做法值得借鉴

我国的政府部门如何对专用车进行管理?围绕这个话题的争论可谓经久不衰.争论的焦点主要集中在两个方面:一是改装车厂是否应该与其他汽车生产企业一样管理;二是改装车是否应和载货车一样管理.其实,这两个方面的实质就是一个问题--政府应该管什么.     

房车市场跃跃欲试相关政策有待完善直击2008上海房车展

2008年5月16日上海国际房车工业及配套设备展览会在上海东亚展览馆开幕.此次房车展吸引了30多家中外房车制造企业和相关配套企业参展,并得到了美国房车工业协会和上海市汽车行业协会的支持.     

只有坎坷的市场才能培育强者--东风公司副总经理童东城对国内商用车市场发展趋势的分析与判断

即将过去的2005年,对商用车行业而言是一个漫长的严冬。国内商用车市场到底怎么了?今后的发展趋势又该如何?很多业内人士为此深感困惑。诸如此类的问题,我认为应该从中国经济发展的全局和商用车市场的发展规律来加以分析和判断,透过现象看本质,用发展的眼光看问题,正确地把握国内商用车企业面临的机遇和挑战,从而获得企业的可持续发展。     

日本扎幌城市道路抗冻结路面铺设方法

介绍了日本扎幌市进行防冻结路面的铺筑试验情况，其做法对我国北方地区铺筑抗冻结路面的工程实践有参考意义。     

今年3月以来中国车市频现召回潮 315所致

<正>今年3月以来,宝马、通用、丰田、捷豹路虎、沃尔沃汽车(微博)等相继宣布在中国市场实施召回,其间以宝马、通用的召回规模和力度最大。与此同时,中国自主车企奇瑞在2月底也发布了召回计划。中国《缺陷汽车产品召回管理条例》于2013年1月1日起正式实施,将部门规章上升为行政法规,     

Using an integrated model of TPB and TAM to analyze the pandemic impacts on the intention to use bicycles in the post-COVID-19 period

Due to the rapid increase in bicycle usage during the pandemic, this study aims to ascertain the effects of COVID-19 and the role of psychosocial factors on the intention to cycle in the future. An integrated model of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and technology acceptance model (TAM) was modified and utilized with a sample of 473 cyclists in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The results confirm that the awareness change because of the advent of COVID-19, especially related to the environment, negative impacts of motorized vehicles (including road safety burden), and climate change issues, has the strongest power to influence bicycle use intention. The positive effect of COVID-19 also significantly influenced subjective norms and perceived behavioral control. Meanwhile, attitudes toward cycling and its perceived usefulness did not significantly contribute to bicycle use intention. Attitudes to use bicycles also could not mediate the relationship between COVID-19 and the intention to use bicycles. Based on the study findings, a set of policy initiatives was proposed, including cycling campaigns related to environmental issues, promoting bicycle use by public figures, providing a segregated bike lane, and introducing bicycle-specific programs, such as bicycle usage in cultural events.     

欧盟、日本与中国的摩托车电磁兼容标准比对研究(1)

欧盟与日本的摩托车产业比我国起步早,摩托车的标准体系也更为完善.欧盟与日本的摩托车电磁兼容标准已经形成完整的体系,而我国的电磁兼容标准体系尚在建设当中,研究对比这2个标准体系与我国标准的差异,对我国摩托车标准体系的建设和完善有重大的借鉴意义.     

各汽车公司谈在俄罗斯、印度和中国市场发展的经验

编者按:不断成长的印度、俄罗斯、中国市场给深谙经商之道的汽车公司提供了巨大的商机.为了交流各汽车公司在这三个新兴地区的发展经验,上一周美国汽车新闻杂志社召开了一个关于俄罗斯、印度、中国市场的研讨会,该会邀请了各地的企业家座谈在三个地区的经营之道.以下是部分企业家的精彩论述.     

欧盟、日本与中国的摩托车电磁兼容标准比对研究(2)

(上接2015年第4期)对于电动车/插入式混合动力车采用的测试标准如表3所示.为了使车辆企业能够有足够的时间应对ECER10.04,在日本该标准的强制实施将给出5年的过渡周期,至2016年10月,所有的车辆必须均满足ECER10.04版要求.     

The travel behaviour of ride-sourcing users,and their perception of the usefulness of ride-sourcing based on the users' previous modes of transport: A case study in Bandung City,Indonesia

Research provides evidence that ride-sourcing has not only substituted for private transport but also public transport. For further investigation of this substitution effect, this paper explores the travel behaviour of ride-sourcing users and those users' socio-demographic characteristics as well as perception of the usefulness of ride-sourcing based on the users' previous modes of transport before ride-sourcing existed. For these purposes, the study collected data using a questionnaire survey in Bandung City in 2018. We found that substitution from public transport exists for younger travellers, while substitution from private transport is most likely associated with infrequent and higher-income travellers. We also found open spaces, a green environment and high interaction society in the residential environments that have more association with high-income travellers, thus associated with lower use of ride-sourcing for former private transport users. This study found that travellers who resided in areas with similar, high-income characteristics tend to have a positive appreciation of ride-sourcing. It appears that the increasing perceived usefulness does not straightforwardly increase the frequency of usage. Therefore, travellers who lived in a more high-end and active social environment might appreciate the role of ride-sourcing services in some of their trips that complement another daily trip.     

欧美日智能网联汽车准入管理研究及启示

智能网联汽车是汽车产业转型升级的重要战略方向,良好的政策环境是其快速发展的关键保障。本文以智能网联汽车准入管理为研究重点,首先对欧美日智能网联汽车准入管理政策、法规和标准进展进行研究,分析主要进展和发展趋势;在此基础上,进一步梳理提出智能网联汽车准入管理面临的自动驾驶安全、责任判定、软件升级、网络安全、标准支撑5项主要挑战;最后,针对挑战提出管理建议。     

The impact of route guidance,departure time advice and alternative routes on door-to-door travel time reliability: Two data-driven assessment methods

ABSTRACT

Conventional travel time reliability assessment has evolved from road segments to the route level. However, a connection between origin and destination usually consists of multiple routes, thereby providing the option to choose. Having alternatives can compensate for the deterioration of a single route; therefore, this study assesses the reliability and quality of the aggregate of the route set of an origin-destination (OD) pair. This paper proposes two aggregation methods for analyzing the reliability of travel times on the OD level: 1) an adapted Logsum method and 2) a route choice model. The first method analyzes reliability from a network perspective and the second method is based on the reliability as perceived by a traveler choosing his route from the available alternatives. A case study using detailed data on actual travel times illustrates both methods and shows the impact of having variable departure times and the impact of information strategies on travel time reliability.